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Tea Party Wins

Everyone can believe what they want. There is no substatial truth either way.

I think he had them, and we were too stupid to find them or figure out what he did with them.

He said he had them. He used them on the Kurds, amongst others. Why would we think he was such a kidder?

I guess we should have said. "C'mon, quit fuckin' with us Saddam, you joker."

Hey, take me out and shoot me.

You can't prove, beyond a doubt, he had them or not.

And you won't convince me otherwise
 
Am watching Bill Maher tonight, and Neil DeGrasse Tyson is one of the panelists. The main discussion point is the US economy. Tyson makes a very good point, that a significant majority of the Members of Congress list their primary occupation as lawyer.

A lawyer's main purpose is to argue. And it does not necessarily mean arguing for something you believe to be right.

Then he goes on to ask, wouldn't it be better if we elected people with a real understanding of how things work, such as doctors, engineers, economists, teachers etc. 
 
>Actually, by going the route of special appropriations, it allowed the Bush Administration to keep the expenditures out of the budget, and were not counted against the budget deficit until Obama put them on the books (although it still increased the actual debt). Which is one reason why the deficit numbers ballooned in Obama's first budget.

Either you haven't been reading the explanations I have posted on two or three threads, or I haven't explained clearly.  The "budget" to which you refer is the document the president is required to provide to Congress (aka a "spending request") by the first Monday in February, for the forthcoming fiscal year which will begin in October and end in September of the following year.  It is a proposal, not an immutable document.  The year-end figures include the special appropriations and everything else which changes over the course of a year; the off-budget amounts were not magically absent from every number published and forbidden from mention under pain of death.  I don't give a rat's ass what Bush or Obama published/publish as wish-lists: I look at the final figures based on real revenues and expenditures.

Here are the figures I found for recent US federal deficits (actual, not forecasts or estimates) in billions of dollars:

2002 158.01
2003 377.81
2004 412.90
2005 318.59
2006 248.57
2007 160.96
2008 458.55
2009 1412.69
2010 1293.49

For example, the deficit for FY 2008 (Oct 2007-Sep 2008) was $458.55B.  It was not $458.55B "plus some amount for cost of wars". 

As you can see, the actual deficits have ballooned, period, and the remarkable deficit in FY 2009 (originally projected at $400B in the funding request) was primarily due to shortfall of revenue ($600B) and extra spending (~$400B, including $145B for the wars).  If $150B is subtracted for the "wars" from FY 2010, it still leaves a $1,140B hole which is not merely due to a shortfall of revenue.
 
Just because the entitlement load is finally starting to weigh now does not mean it is not the root of the problem.  That's the point: the problem is hard for most people to understand and recognize because the effects - predicted to take decades to manifest - have taken decades to manifest (although fewer than originally hoped).

The US trust fund holdings are essentially numbers on paper or in computers.  When you write "Social Security benefit payments can still be sustained", from where do you think the money will come when the agency presents one of its special bonds and asks for cash?  If the US can't tax or borrow (ie. issue ordinary publicly held debt) the money at that time (and is unwilling to simply "print" it), the trust fund bonds can not be paid out.
 
>I see some justification for it [Afghanistan war] for the fact that the country actually harboured an organization that planned and executed the mass murder of almost 4000 people - and removing that safe haven has some merit.

I didn't ask whether it had merit, I asked whether it was justifiable.  Proportionality?  Last resort?  I think not.  Libya?  Ditto.  All the wars currently ongoing are unjustifiable.  There is no "Iraq Bad, Afghanistan Good".  If the question is simply one of merit, removing Hussein and verifying the absence of WMD had a great deal of merit.  The mistake was to remain more than 3 to 6 months.
 
>But they don't reflect in those spending as a proportion of GDP as a result, that's the reason I highlighted that - it masks the impact on the US national debt and deficit.

That remark, with respect to on-budget/off-budget spending, is unintelligible unless you would care to explain.  Or perhaps it is the case that I am the only person in the room who looks at actual year-end figures; everyone else bases opinions and conclusions on the wish-lists created 8 months prior, rather like publishing the annual unit historical report citing solely the operations and administration plan (or whatever it is called now) exactly as it was first published prior to commencement of the year.

As long as one sticks to year-end historical figures - and I can't see how it is possible to do meaningful historical comparisons or to understand the true amounts of deficits and debt without the year-end actuals - nothing is masked anywhere.  It is all in the totals.
 
>A government, however, isn't a business.  It doesn't, and cannot be run like a business.

Your statement is merely an assertion.  Government can be run like a business in most respects, notwithstanding the fact it has a "guaranteed" revenue stream.  Most parts of government have business plans and budgeting processes.  Where the shortfalls appear are in the inability / unwillingness to constrain expenditures to revenues, to limit bureaucratic bloat, and to match compensation to market (it's easy, there are consultants who do the analysis: pick a target compensation percentile, find the market range, and use it).
 
recceguy said:
Of course. Once again your left wing, head in the sand, opinion is the only logical and dependable solution that is right and righteous. Everyone else is some sort of gomer not privy to your superior intellectual capacity.

Wow, didn't you make some "holier than thou" post about ad hominems not long ago?  I'm loving the rich irony here.

recceguy said:
It doesn't matter that the same madman said he had those weapons, proved that he had them, used them before and threatened to use them again, didn't matter, did it? What mattered to the conspiracy theorists and left wing ideologs is that, after he moved them, we couldn't find them. So, simplistically, they didn't exist and Bush was a dolt.

Had - past tense.  Used - past tense.  Oh, hey, who supplied him with them (or precursors at least) and tacitly approved their use?  Wait, that doesn't fit your narrative so we'll ignore that.  He also repeatedly stated that the programs had long since been dismantled, and when he realized that the US was dead set on invasions he made it clear.  Years of UN inspections found absolutely no evidence to suggest that there were any active programs, and thus the US engaged in elaborate fabrications (like the Niger yellowcake memo) to support their case, because they had no tangible evidence to do so.

recceguy said:
Of course, there are all kinds of idiots in the world, that would rather call the bluff of terrorists like this. People that think like you. People that would not bat an eye when hundreds, if not thousands, of Kurds were killed by the same WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION that Saddam used and has been proven, but deny it because they are not connected. People like you that still profess he didn't have them. ::) Guess all those Kurds, etc are right wing conspirators and liars too.

If that wasn't complete BS, then why was nothing done after the Halabja attack?  And what's with moral relativism?  What of the thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who have died and continue to die in the sectarian violence there, caused by the devastation of the war.  No one in their right mind denies that he had and used WMD in the 1980s and that at that time the West did absolutely nothing about it.  It appears a fact of history, however, that he did not have them in 2003, as no evidence of any have been found.  Not a shred.  Just like the UN inspectors said.  Just like Hussein claimed to the end.  Had - but no longer had.

Forgive me for thinking that killing so many people over lies is wrong, immoral, unnecessary, unjustifiable.

We're done here.
 
>killing so many people over lies

A lie is something known to be untrue.  Please do not conflate guesses and estimates and assessments and so forth with lies.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Here are the figures I found for recent US federal deficits (actual, not forecasts or estimates) in billions of dollars:

2002 158.01
2003 377.81
2004 412.90
2005 318.59
2006 248.57
2007 160.96
2008 458.55
2009 1412.69
2010 1293.49

For example, the deficit for FY 2008 (Oct 2007-Sep 2008) was $458.55B.  It was not $458.55B "plus some amount for cost of wars".

In actual fact, the numbers you quote have not included the special appropriations for Iraq and Afghanistan. The Bush Administration were constantly being criticized by the CBO, and most financial analysts and economists for using accounting gimmicks to lower the deficit numbers. The reasoning was always made that since it wasn't part of the government budget that is should not be included as part of the overall annual deficit calculation. HOWEVER, the special appropriations were counted against the actual debt.

The numbers for 2003 to 2009 cover the Bush years, and interestingly the huge jump in 2009 shows the effect of the TARP program. But none of those numbers account for the special appropriations.
 
Brad Sallows said:
The US trust fund holdings are essentially numbers on paper or in computers.  When you write "Social Security benefit payments can still be sustained", from where do you think the money will come when the agency presents one of its special bonds and asks for cash?  If the US can't tax or borrow (ie. issue ordinary publicly held debt) the money at that time (and is unwilling to simply "print" it), the trust fund bonds can not be paid out.

In actual fact, the Social Security Program was designed to be a "Pay as You Go" system, where money paid in by workers would go to cover the benefit payments of those who currently draw on the program. In order to address fluctuations in demographics, the system has a built in "Trust Fund" where overpayments, rather than be paid back would go into the "Fund" and was intended to act as a cushion when there was a shortfall between the payments coming in and the payments going out. However, the Government was allowed to borrow money from the fund in times of fund prosperity by exchanging treasury bonds for cash.

When I said benefit payments can still be sustained, it basically means that they can still be paid from the incoming payments, albeit as time goes on the level of benefits paid out will need to be adjusted downwards to ensure all persons drawing on the system receive payouts.   
 
The vindication of the TEA Party movement. The partial and incomplete victory negotiated did not cut spending enough:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/downgrade-shows-demint-was-right

Downgrade shows DeMint was right byDavid Freddoso
Follow on Twitter:@freddoso

He was right. (AP photo)
Throughout the debate over the debt ceiling, the media did all of us a great disservice. They reported as though the Republicans were threatening to ruin America's credit unless they got their way.

Closer to the truth: If only conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., had gotten their way -- i.e., huge spending cuts -- perhaps we wouldn't have just been downgraded by S&P. DeMint predicted ahead of time that none of the debt deals on the table except for "Cut, Cap and Balance" would prevent a downgrade. He has been vindicated.

The bond-rating houses kept saying all along that they weren't worried about the debt ceiling not being increased. Rather, they were worried about the long-term prospects of the U.S. government paying back $15-plus trillion, which is where our national debt (both publicly held and obligated to trust funds) will be shortly.

Because last weekend's deal didn't cut spending deeply enough, S&P has just downgraded us. We'll see just how disastrous this becomes -- some are arguing it's not such a big deal -- but consider this the market's revenge for TARP and the stimulus package. You run up the debt, Mr. President, you lose your good credit.

I am already seeing predictions that bond hawks could force the yeild of US treasuries up to 9% (although the timeframe was not given), so the shape of the next few years is already being laid out. OF course economic historians are probably not surprised, we are in a "deleveraging" cycle as overextended governments and economies have to pay off debts. The last huge deleveraging was the Great Depression as the WWI debts had to be dealt with; in our case we do have the cost of winning the Cold War, but the costs of scial programs and government payrolls since the 1960's has far eclipsed any sort of war spending (and the unfunded liabilities go far beyond even that).
 
Thucydides said:
The vindication of the TEA Party movement. The partial and incomplete victory negotiated did not cut spending enough:

Downgrade shows DeMint was right byDavid Freddoso

I think it's a little premature to claim victory, and say DeMint was right.

S&P was the only rating house to make a move, and they quite clearly did it in response to the political climate, rather than as a response to the economic future. It would seem to reason that cutting government spending would be a good thing (even if you think it wasn't far enough) and step in the right direction.

I would side with the other ratings houses and take a wait and see attitude, to determine if the pols finally realized that the partisan gamesmanship that we witnessed over the last month or so, particularly with the mass fail of the FAA debacle, was only going to kill the economy.
 
cupper said:
I think it's a little premature to claim victory, and say DeMint was right.

S&P was the only rating house to make a move, and they quite clearly did it in response to the political climate, rather than as a response to the economic future. It would seem to reason that cutting government spending would be a good thing (even if you think it wasn't far enough) and step in the right direction.

I would side with the other ratings houses and take a wait and see attitude, to determine if the pols finally realized that the partisan gamesmanship that we witnessed over the last month or so, particularly with the mass fail of the FAA debacle, was only going to kill the economy.


It may be that S&P's downgrade will be the catalyst to spur the Washington 'leadership' into some productive action; if it does then Moody's and Fitch will be right. If, on the other hand, the President and the Congress continue down their current paths then S&P will be justified, next year, in a further downgrade and they will appear prescient and the others will be seen as being American toadies who put nationality ahead of their duty to their clients.
 
Eric Cantor explains how the process worked, and what to expect in the future. The S&P downgrade should provide an additional spur to action, and galvinize the "severely normal" American public with little interest in politics to get serious about what is happening in both the Capital and the State houses. The fact that there was a downgrade will resonate with the TEA Party movement narrative about spending, in the experience of most people you cannot spend more than you earn so deep cuts will be seen as the common sense solution.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903454504576486752134553990.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Obama and the Narcissism of Big Differences
'He becomes visibly agitated. . . . He does not like to be challenged on policy grounds,' says the House majority leader of the president.

By JOSEPH RAGO

New York

Whatever the rhetoric that preceded this week's deal, the debt-ceiling debate was never really about the debt at all. It was about the terms on which the debate would continue. The "two different worldviews" that divide Washington, explains Eric Cantor, are too far apart for anything more than an armistice. Still, listening to the House majority leader—who says the deal is "not perfect" but "there were some achievements"—it's remarkable that the two parties were able to agree even to its modest terms.

The "philosophical starting point" of today's Democrats, as Mr. Cantor sees it, is that they "believe in a welfare state before they believe in capitalism. They promote economic programs of redistribution to close the gap of the disparity between the classes. That's what they're about: redistributive politics." The Virginian's contempt is obvious in his Tidewater drawl. "The assumption . . . is that there is some kind of perpetual engine of economic prosperity in America that is going to just continue. And therefore they are able to take from those who create and give to those who don't. We just have a fundamentally different view."

Mr. Cantor's aggressive style has earned him the enmity of liberals and most of the D.C. press corps, though his larger offense is against their orthodoxy that a fiscal compromise must by definition include tax increases. Mr. Cantor, who holds the second most powerful post in the House after Speaker John Boehner, did more than any other figure to prevent "revenue" (that is, tax increases) from entering the final package.

Like Mr. Cantor, President Obama is also a man of deep and strong convictions, and perhaps that's why they seem to dislike each other so much. Call it, to adapt Freud, the narcissism of big differences. Mr. Cantor cautions that he isn't a "psychoanalyst"—before politics, he was a real-estate lawyer and small businessman—but he says, "It's almost as if someone cannot have another opinion that is different from his. He becomes visibly agitated. . . . He does not like to be challenged on policy grounds."

In a meeting with the Journal's editorial board Wednesday, Mr. Cantor, 48, gives his side of one of his more infamous altercations with the president. In a mid-July Cabinet Room meeting, Mr. Cantor made a suggestion that Mr. Obama and other Democrats took as impertinent. "How dare I," Mr. Cantor recalls of the liberal sentiment in the room. He was sitting between Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, "and they were in absolute agreement that [the president] was such a saint for having endured all this."

"No president has sat here like I have, in these kinds of meetings, with congressional leaders, in this detail," Mr. Obama said in Mr. Cantor's recollection, which Democrats dispute. Mr. Cantor says the president also invoked Ronald Reagan "to be a little patronizing of us, because he assumed that anything Reagan did we like." Mr. Obama then told Mr. Cantor, "Eric, don't call my bluff," and walked out.

***
The roots of the Obama-Cantor animosity date back at least to another memorable exchange in 2009, some three days after the inauguration. In a meeting with the president, Mr. Cantor—then the No. 2 Republican in the House—discussed the economic recovery plans that the post-2008 GOP remnant favored. "Elections have consequences," the president responded, "and Eric, I won." The White House promptly leaked the remark to the media.

Mr. Cantor went on to whip the GOP minority against the near-$1 trillion stimulus, and all 187 members ultimately voted against it, though at the time that was not a given. The unanimous opposition was a political coup for the canny, ambitious Mr. Cantor, who was elected to the House only in 2000. He holds the seat that James Madison once held, now Virginia's seventh district that stretches from Richmond to the Blue Ridge Mountains.

After the GOP won in 2010, many of its 87 new members—one-third of the caucus—planned to block any increase in the debt ceiling, full stop. It was only after concerted lobbying by Mr. Cantor, Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy and Budget Chairman Paul Ryan that they flipped to a debt-ceiling hike with conditions. "Most people who were elected this time feel they were elected to change the system," Mr. Cantor says, with some understatement.

The debt talks began in earnest in May. Mr. Cantor principally spoke for the Republicans in talks with Vice President Joe Biden, which met two to three times a week for a month and a half, with daily "free and open communication" among staffers.

The talks "did make some progress" because the opposing sides agreed not to agree, says Mr. Cantor. The vice president and majority leader even established a rapport because they tried "not to get flared up over philosophical differences," as Mr. Cantor puts it. "Throughout the weeks there was always the possibility that we would veer off into our own worldviews, but we really did try and say, all of us know we've got to cut some spending."

"Nothing was agreed upon until everything was agreed upon," but the group identified between $2 trillion and $2.3 trillion in savings. Major proposals included means-testing Medicare so that higher-income seniors paid more for benefits, revising the wraparound "medigap" policies that insulate patients from out-of-pocket costs, and changing the federal-state Medicaid payment formula. "It was those types of nibbling-around-the-edges entitlement reforms," Mr. Cantor says.

Mr. Cantor's insight was that no modus vivendi could be reached this year that would solve the fiscal crisis, so it was better to focus on "incremental wins with this president." Even the $4 trillion "big deal" that Messrs. Obama and Boehner nearly closed in separate talks was too small to be worth the cost (though it may have raised the Medicare eligibility age and made technical changes to inflation measures to reduce the annual growth of Social Security checks). "None of those, none of those, really address the underlying problem," Mr. Cantor says. "We need transformation in those programs in order to sustain them."

Mr. Cantor quit the talks in late June amid Democratic tax demands, which he considered non-negotiable. Their position, he says, was that "we can't do this unless you Republicans are going to relent on revenues." His truculence did not endear him to Washington—though of course no one likened Mr. Obama to a terrorist for similarly refusing to give on any part of his new health-care entitlement, which was not even in the vicinity of "the table."

Somewhat surprisingly, Mr. Cantor was in fact prepared to bargain on about $20 billion in higher taxes on "the shiny balls of the millionaires, billionaires, jet owners and oil companies" that Mr. Obama so often mentioned in public. "If they wanted to be able to claim the win on that," Mr. Cantor says, he wanted net revenue neutrality in return, by lowering the corporate income tax rate or perhaps enacting an even larger tax reform. In effect, he was calling Mr. Obama's bluff on "cheap politics."

In private, however, the debate always returned to the status of the top marginal rate for individuals earning over $200,000 and $250,000 for couples—aka the Bush tax cuts for people who do not own private aircraft. Mr. Cantor argued that some large portion of the income that flows through the top bracket comes from "pass-through entities"—that is, businesses—and "to me, that strikes at the core of what I believe should be the policy, and that is to provide incentives for entrepreneurs to grow."

By contrast, he says, "Never was there ever an underlying economic argument" from Democrats. "It was all about social justice. Honestly, one of them said to me, 'Some people just make too much money.'"

***
Mr. Cantor is "cautiously optimistic" about the deal, which creates a 12-member "super committee" to reduce the deficit by another $1.5 trillion in return for another debt-limit increase later this year. Apart from taxes, its parameters institute the principle that new borrowing must be offset by dollar-for-dollar spending cuts. And while "we may go through the fit and start again of some kind of big deal," he thinks it will merely result in more incremental progress. "I just think that's what's doable given this almost intractable divide we've got with this president and where we are."

Throughout the debt debate, many GOP freshmen and the tea party in general have found it difficult to accept the limited powers that come from controlling only one-half of one branch of government. Mr. Cantor acknowledges their "consternation, angst, anger and the rest leading to a deal like this" and says the party will continue to try to make "the jump" between "reality" and "rational, solid theory," like a balanced budget amendment. But he welcomes the fervor and entertains no strategic or other regrets, except that "we were not able to get what we would consider a really good deal. . . . We didn't get to where we wanted."

Now that the debt debate is in abeyance, the House is "going to continue the focus on the impediments that continue to be erected by this administration to jobs and job growth." Mr. Obama's policies "are what are choking this economy," Mr. Cantor argues, mentioning the stimulus, health care, the auto bailout, "unpredictable and onerous" regulators like the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Labor Relations Board, "the God-forsaken Dodd-Frank regime" and "a taxation system that is noncompetitive, to say the least." He continues: "It doesn't work for Washington to be granted this almighty power that somehow is going to cure all ills and right all the wrongs that they think exist."
But since the GOP is "pit against a White House, a president and a party that just doesn't share the same worldview," Mr. Cantor says "the real fight is going to be making sure that President Obama doesn't have a second term." He describes the 2012 election as "a very existential question" that will determine "what it is that we're about in this country and what kind of country we are and want to be."

As for the 2012 Republican field, Mr. Cantor seems cautiously optimistic, but he hasn't endorsed and doesn't divulge a rooting interest. There's "no question" that the campaign will turn on jobs, the economy and growth, or lack thereof, Mr. Cantor says. He suggests candidates argue that "Washington has become an impediment to the American way of life. That American way of life has to do with entrepreneurship, it has to do with everyone having a fair shot at equal opportunity. . . .

"They need to change Obama's Washington, but it's really a return to what we know is America. Obama ran as an agent of change, and I don't know what that hope and change really was at this point. It's turned out to be something a lot different than what most people thought. But yes, we need to change and take the country away from President Obama."

A debate in that key was never going to be resolved in a matter of months over the debt ceiling.

Mr. Rago is a member of the Journal's editorial board.
 
Take what Cantor says with a grain of salt.

He became the lightening rod for the anger of Americans that resulted, and will more than likely be scapegoated by the GOP's leadership.

It was interesting to see how he became sidelined during the final days leading up to the final agreement.
 
The desire by the democrats to help everyone who wanted a home,regardless of their ability to pay for it was the cause.The two vehicles for this were 2 quasi government corporations Freddie and Fannie,both of whom are in very rocky shape themselves.Had this interference by Congress in the housing market not happened the crash of 2008 probably wouldnt have happened.
 
Brad Sallows said:
>killing so many people over lies

A lie is something known to be untrue.  Please do not conflate guesses and estimates and assessments and so forth with lies.

Yeah, I know the difference.  I used the word deliberately.  The Niger yellowcake memo which was a key part of the casus belli was a lie.  The whole f**king thing was built on lies & hubris.
 
Thucydides said:
I am already seeing predictions that bond hawks could force the yeild of US treasuries up to 9% (although the timeframe was not given), so the shape of the next few years is already being laid out. OF course economic historians are probably not surprised, we are in a "deleveraging" cycle as overextended governments and economies have to pay off debts. The last huge deleveraging was the Great Depression as the WWI debts had to be dealt with; in our case we do have the cost of winning the Cold War, but the costs of scial programs and government payrolls since the 1960's has far eclipsed any sort of war spending (and the unfunded liabilities go far beyond even that).

If T-Bill yields soar to 9% in any reasonably foreseeable near term timeline, the effect on the US economy will be catastrophic.  In fact, catastrophic isn't even a strong enough word.  Since that drives all other interest rates in an already heavily leveraged economy, I don't even want to begin to imagine the impact of that - especially since years of government policy encouraged such leveraging - to borrow one's way to the American dream as it were
 
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