Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Kirkhill]

Exports to the United States represented 71.8% of Canada's exports to the world in 2020, down from 74.6% in 2019

• Canada was the United States' 3rd largest supplier of goods imports in 2019.
• U.S. goods imports from Canada totaled $319.4 billion in 2019, up 0.3% ($906 million) from 2018, and up 41.2% from 2009. U.S. imports from Canada are up 187% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. imports from Canada account for 12.8% of overall U.S. imports in 2019.

• Canada was the United States' largest goods export market in 2019.
• U.S. goods exports to Canada in 2019 were $292.7 billion, down 2.4% ($7.1 billion) from 2018 but up 43.0% from 2009. U.S. exports to Canada are up 191% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Canada account for 18% of overall U.S. exports in 2019.

Canada

U.S.-Canada Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with Canada totaled $707 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $354 billion; Imports totaled $354 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade surplus with Canada was $40 million in 2012.

ustr.gov

The US market is worth 319 BUSD to us each year or about 20% of our 1643 BUSD GDP
That market represents 72% of our total market.
We turn a profit on that trade of 25 BUSD each year or about 1.5% of our GDP

Or our entire defence Budget,
half of which goes to hire Canadians to defend Canada.

To ensure access to that market the US is asking that Canada add 0.5% of GDP to the defence budget and make the Americans feel that they are more secure in their own homes.

That equates to a 30% tax on our profits from trade with the US

Or

That equates to a 2.5% tariff on all the exports we supply to the US.


We can spend the money and preserve a modicum of our self-worth as a sovereign state.

Or

The US will do what it feels it needs to do and send us the bill.

 

[Spencer100]

Not when the businesses pass on the costs to them.

Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?

 

[SupersonicMax]

And Burkino Faso isn’t PART of AFRICOM, but it is in AFRICOM’s AOR.

For your NORTHCOM non-analogy, we have LOs in NORTHCOM, so at least technically there are some CAF members seconded to NORTHCOM, and thus, some of Canada is “part of” NORTHCOM.

That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.

 

[Kirkhill]

Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?

And when you consider that the debate is over a 30% increase in the Defence Budget or a 2.5% increase in tariffs on exports to the US I fear that Spencer is right.

2.5% on 20% of GDP is a marginal cost.

30% of the Defence Budget is somebody's teeth, drugs and child care.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?

Stats Canada survey results seem to suggest otherwise:

Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians​

Over the past year, consumer inflation has steadily increased, reaching a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in April 2022. Heightened consumer demand and challenges to the supply chain are some of the main factors contributing to higher prices.

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

It found that nearly three in four Canadians reported that rising prices are affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses such as transportation, housing, food, and clothing. As a result, many Canadians are adjusting their behaviour to adapt to this new reality, including adjusting their spending habits and delaying the purchase of a home or moving to a new rental.

Regionally, there was little variation between provinces—most Canadians are feeling the impacts of inflation. Those in lower income quintiles, however, are more concerned about and affected by rising prices.

The Daily — Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

 

[Kirkhill]

That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.

It is important. I agree.

But it doesn't negate the power difference between Canada and the USA and the USA's self-interests.

 

[Kirkhill]

Stats Canada survey results seem to suggest otherwise:

Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians​

Over the past year, consumer inflation has steadily increased, reaching a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in April 2022. Heightened consumer demand and challenges to the supply chain are some of the main factors contributing to higher prices.

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

It found that nearly three in four Canadians reported that rising prices are affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses such as transportation, housing, food, and clothing. As a result, many Canadians are adjusting their behaviour to adapt to this new reality, including adjusting their spending habits and delaying the purchase of a home or moving to a new rental.

Regionally, there was little variation between provinces—most Canadians are feeling the impacts of inflation. Those in lower income quintiles, however, are more concerned about and affected by rising prices.

The Daily — Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?

 

[KevinB]

That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.

The ONLY reason NORTHCOM exists separate from NORAD is the initial reluctance from Canada to sign onto ABM, and upgrade it's NORAD contributions.
Because without Canada as part of the ABM/BMS - we need to use part of Canada as the impact area for interception of inbound missiles.

Assuming Canada signs on to ABM, and continues modernization of NORAD installations and the F-35 goes forward, there will be no real barriers between NORTHCOM and NORAD. THAAD etc can then shoot down missiles further out -- either in the oceans or in non inhabited areas.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Tariffs applied by the US on goods going into the US are ultimately paid by US consumers, not Canadians.

What impacts Canadians (exporters) is the accompanying reduction in demand for Canadian goods.

 

[SupersonicMax]

NORTHCOM is much more than NORAD. I would say that ABM is only part of NORTHCOM because of our decision not to get into ABM.

NORTHCOM conducts many activities that are well beyond the scope of NORAD (domestic disaster relief, consequence management of domestic terrorist WMD usage, etc)

 

[Good2Golf]

That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.

No, the ABM program was nested within NORTHCOM because Canada said no to BMD in 2005, so that ruled out putting it in NORAD, which is where it would have gone if Canada had agreed to BMD.

 

[KevinB]

NORTHCOM is much more than NORAD. I would say that ABM is only part of NORTHCOM because of our decision not to get into ABM.

NORTHCOM conducts many activities that are well beyond the scope of NORAD (domestic disaster relief, consequence management of domestic terrorist WMD usage, etc) NORTHCOM existed before we declined being part of ABM.

https://www.northcom.mil/Portals/28/Documents/A%20Short%20History%20of%20USNORTHCOM%20(current%20as%20of%20March%202014).pdf

NORTHCOM was a 9/11 knee jerk. However it changed significantly with some of the disasters down here (Fires and Floods) - but the most significant aspect to the main separation is ABM.
- Domestic Response is 99% the National Guard, the fact the CG is the same and the staff nearly the same should shine a pretty big light that it exists simply due to concern with Canada's willingness to contribute to collective defense of NA.

 

[SupersonicMax]

No, the ABM program was nested within NORTHCOM because Canada said no to BMD in 2005, so that ruled out putting it in NORAD, which is where it would have gone if Canada had agreed to BMD.

Precisely my point. It can’t be within NORAD because we don’t (didn’t?) want anything to do with it. It needed an organization that wasn’t a bilateral command.

 

[YZT580]

But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?

Would depend entirely (or almost) upon the attitude reflected in the press in all its forms. Trudeau and co. cannot get their version of events through to the public unless the press cooperates and prints or broadcasts that version. If they put events and results in front of the people and keep them their for longer than 48 hours you just might see change but it does require constant and consistent messaging.

 

[CBH99]

But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?

If their other CoA is to take ownership of some pretty stupid monetary policies that are contributing to everything getting more expensive… if they can paint someone else as the bad guy, they’ll probably go that route.

When I say GoC going that route, I really do mean Trudeau. Nothing personal (albeit I dislike him intensely) but he is the face & voice of the government, and he doesn’t seem to own much if it’s negative.

 

[FJAG]

Canada spending almost $5B to upgrade continental defence, Anand says​

NORAD overhaul will replace aging radar stations in Far North​

Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Jun 20, 2022 12:09 PM ET

Canada will spend $4.9 billion over the next six years to modernize continental defence, Defence Minister Anita Anand said Monday.
Anand delivered the long-awaited announcement on the NORAD upgrade at the Canadian military's principal air base at Trenton, Ont.
"NORAD has continually adapted and evolved in response to new threats. Today, we turn another page and begin NORAD's next chapter," the minister said in front a backdrop of flags and an aging CF-18 jet fighter.

The figure represents Canada's share of the cost of overhauling the decades-old joint bi-national air defence command, originally designed to watch out for Soviet bombers. The project was not part of the Liberal government's 2017 defence policy document.

The United States covers about 60 per cent of the bill for NORAD.
The cash is expected to come out of the latest federal budget, which set aside up to $8 billion in new funding beyond increases in defence appropriations to which the Liberal government already had agreed. Up to $6 billion of that money was earmarked for a variety of commitments, including NORAD modernization.
Anand said the government's overall investment in continental and northern defence will exceed $40 billion over the next two decades. She did not provide a breakdown of that spending and the Department of National Defence did not release a backgrounder explaining the proposed expenditure. ....

See rest of article here

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anand-norad-radar-continental-defence-1.6494658

 

[Underway]

Highlights of stuff we care about (missed a few french points):

All the money announced is new money 4.9 billion over 6 years and 40billion over 20 years (funded...), on top of what was in the budget.

1. Investment in new capabilities to detect threats to NA with brand new Northern Approaches Surveillance System

• Arctic Over the Horizon Radar System - Canada/US border to Arctic Circle
• Polar Over the Horizon Radar System - over an beyond the northern most approaches to NA including Canadian Arctic Archipelago
• Crossbow (new system) - network of sensors with classified capabilities distributed across northern Canada as further layer of detection.
• Commitments for space-based surveillance sats owned and launched by Canada

2. Investment in new technology to enable decision-making.

• modernizing C2I systems
• expanding Canada's contribution to NORAD Pathfinder Initiative (cloud computing and machine learning)
• Modernizing Canadian Combined Air Operations center with focus on navigation capabilities in the north
• renewing CAF high and low freq sat comms in arctic
• procure and install new digital radios and network equipment
• new AA missiles for the F-35
• 88 F-35

3. New infrastructure investments

• new Air Refueling aircraft
• northern basing and infrastructure (at four locations in the north)
• upgrading NORAD quick reaction alert capabilities and infrastructure
• modernize air operational infrastructure

Upcoming defence policy update, eye to changing situations around the world.
BMD is moving into an Integrated Air and Missile Defence system direction with multiple effectors. Kind of dodged the question a bit.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Highlights of stuff we care about (missed a few french points):

All the money announced is new money 4.9 billion over 6 years and 40billion over 20 years (funded...), on top of what was in the budget.

1. Investment in new capabilities to detect threats to NA with brand new Northern Approaches Surveillance System

• Arctic Over the Horizon Radar System - Canada/US border to Arctic Circle
• Polar Over the Horizon Radar System - over an beyond the northern most approaches to NA including Canadian Arctic Archipelago
• Crossbow (new system) - network of sensors with classified capabilities distributed across northern Canada as further layer of detection.
• Commitments for space-based surveillance sats owned and launched by Canada

2. Investment in new technology to enable decision-making.

• modernizing C2I systems
• expanding Canada's contribution to NORAD Pathfinder Initiative (cloud computing and machine learning)
• Modernizing Canadian Combined Air Operations center with focus on navigation capabilities in the north
• renewing CAF high and low freq sat comms in arctic
• procure and install new digital radios and network equipment
• new AA missiles for the F-35
• 88 F-35

3. New infrastructure investments

• new Air Refueling aircraft
• northern basing and infrastructure (at four locations in the north)
• upgrading NORAD quick reaction alert capabilities and infrastructure
• modernize air operational infrastructure

Upcoming defence policy update, eye to changing situations around the world.
BMD is moving into an Integrated Air and Missile Defence system direction with multiple effectors. Kind of dodged the question a bit.

RCAF be like...

 

[Quirky]

RCAF be like...

Still nothing to address the retention issues, housing and cost of living. RCAF manning is falling apart and some trades are not recoverable, but hey, we will have new buildings and shiny things that will just sit there collecting dust.

 

[Baloo]

All the money announced is new money 4.9 billion over 6 years and 40billion over 20 years (funded...), on top of what was in the budget.

The Department issued a clarification after the Minister spoke. It is not new money, and is in fact part of the previously-announced increase to the defence budget.

EDIT. The Minister's Office sent the correction, not DND.