Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

From a CAF website:

But it went up almost 3% since last year, apparently. That's an insane increase, isn't it?

 

[FJAG]

Just to follow on - here's a recent staff paper from the CFC:

https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/23/286/Beriault.pdf

 

[McG]

Forgetting the Navy and Airforce for a second what is the Army doing that is stressing it so much? A peacetime deployment to Latvia?

In addition to REASSURANCE, the Army is still in Iraq and the UNIFIER mission is back to life with a few deployments training Ukrainians in different locations. We should be able to do more … but the current government’s direction (published in SSE) only directs CAF to deploy quantities of people, not be able to achieve particular effects.

While government (supported by some GOFO) has been (correctly) arguing that 2% GDP is not an effective measure, nobody has asked the legitimate grown-up question about how to measure capability. Meanwhile, projects have been told to keep costs within initial budget - if delivering a viable, sustainable, and relevant military capability cannot be done within budget then it is okay to keep shaving away at the requirement up to the point where it inhibits the deployment of FOBbits in mandates SSE quantities.

 

[markppcli]

The reason for why there is that much attrition is 2 fold:

-the largest cohort of generations since the Second World War is starting to retire. Their "replacements" weren't hired due to the FRP in the 90s. Massive gaps up in the senior side of the house for both the Snr NCO/WO cadre as well as the Officer corps.

And

-"doing more with less" for 40 odd years means our equipment is broken, harder to maintain, and in some cases; divested to the point where you're not actually doing the job you saw in the cool recruiting video. Couple that with the gradual the "doing more with less" reduction in traditional supports like housing, social clubs, messes, infrastructure; while downloading it onto the member to provide, while refusing to budge on revizing the Compensation and Benefits structure to attract and retain talent.

Put those two things together and your "CAF Offer TM" isn't nearly as awesome as you make it out to be; both for recruiting and retention.

The “deal” has changed substantially even in the last 15 years since I’ve been in. We, in a regular force Bn, are expecting soldiers to bring their own food while we train instead of providing it for them, we throw people on C&P for any incident involving alchohol, we don’t play sports, we have a need for all things to be productive as opposed to cohesion building. Quite frankly we’ve kept all the work, and eroded the “more than a job” parts. Meanwhile we have a generation of senior leaders who keep forcing these traditional events and not understanding the disdain for them now that no one can actually let their hair down.

 

[markppcli]

From a CAF website:

The private and public sectors can afford a higher turnover rate because their employees are largely productive at the first moment they’ve been hired. The military doesn’t see production for 6-12 months.

 

[MilEME09]

The private and public sectors can afford a higher turnover rate because their employees are largely productive at the first moment they’ve been hired. The military doesn’t see production for 6-12 months.

Private sector also doesn't take 12-24 months to hire

 

[Remius]

We also rarely recruit at level unlike the private sector that can do that on a more frequent basis.

 

[Dale Denton]

From Janes:​

Future Armoured Vehicles Survivability 2022: Canada seeks equipment in light of Ukraine conflict​

Source

He told the conference that Canada had an urgent operational requirement (UOR) for anti-tank guided weapons and counter-unmanned aircraft systems for deployment to Latvia and was seeking to replace M777 towed howitzers transferred to Ukraine. He also spoke of a UOR for a ground-based air-defence system.

Regarding the replacement of LAV 6.0 armoured vehicles, Col Raymond identified among the protection considerations NATO Standardization Agreement (STANAG) 4569 protection levels for occupants of logistic and light armoured vehicles from kinetic energy and artillery rounds, as well as from improvised explosive devices. He added that the new vehicle would be equipped with smoke launchers and feature cyber protection and mobile camouflage. He said Canada was also seeking an armour protection system, adding that it “is expensive for a small nation” and that the collateral damage it can cause was another consideration.

He expected a contract award in 2023 but said the procurement could last seven years, compared with 10–15 years for the replacement of the LAV III with the LAV 6.0.

Looking ahead, Col Raymond spoke of continuous capability sustainment, including the long-term sustainment of Canadian Leopard 2 tanks. Regarding the replacement of M777s transferred to Ukraine as well as deployed to Latvia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said it could be a self-propelled howitzer with a range of 30–40 km and up to 80 km with extended-range ammunition.

 

[FJAG]

In addition to REASSURANCE, the Army is still in Iraq and the UNIFIER mission is back to life with a few deployments training Ukrainians in different locations. We should be able to do more … but the current government’s direction (published in SSE) only directs CAF to deploy quantities of people, not be able to achieve particular effects.

While government (supported by some GOFO) has been (correctly) arguing that 2% GDP is not an effective measure, nobody has asked the legitimate grown-up question about how to measure capability. Meanwhile, projects have been told to keep costs within initial budget - if delivering a viable, sustainable, and relevant military capability cannot be done within budget then it is okay to keep shaving away at the requirement up to the point where it inhibits the deployment of FOBbits in mandates SSE quantities.

There's a 2017 article by John Dowdy on this subject that I like: “More tooth, less tail: Getting beyond NATO’s 2% rule”

More tooth, less tail: Getting beyond NATO’s 2 percent rule

Essentially he says: don't stop measuring input as to 1) total defense spending; 2) report that its spent on the right things; and 3) measure spending effectiveness on a) personnel; b) equipment; and c) operations and maintenance, but also start measuring 4) outputs by measuring a) capabilities; b) readiness, deployability, sustainability; and c) actual deployment/contribution on/to on NATO missions.

 

[FJAG]

From Janes:​

Future Armoured Vehicles Survivability 2022: Canada seeks equipment in light of Ukraine conflict​

Source

CCV, C3 replacement and so many other subjects enter the chat.

 

[CBH99]

From Janes:​

Future Armoured Vehicles Survivability 2022: Canada seeks equipment in light of Ukraine conflict​

Source

For an active protection system contract to take 7-10 years, don’t even bother.

Just incorporate it into the replacement vehicle contract, or add whatever system is current at the time to the replacement vehicle. Or do a UOR for one once the replacement vehicle is chosen, depending on where things are at.

(Trophy might not be top of the game in a decade or so, or vehicles might have APS become more standard/modular, etc)


And don’t bother trying to replace the whopping 4 guns we donated, unless it’s a magical deal.

Put those funds towards whatever we replace the M777 with.


My 0.02

 

[Furniture]

For an active protection system contract to take 7-10 years, don’t even bother.

Just incorporate it into the replacement vehicle contract, or add whatever system is current at the time to the replacement vehicle. Or do a UOR for one once the replacement vehicle is chosen, depending on where things are at.

(Trophy might not be top of the game in a decade or so, or vehicles might have APS become more standard/modular, etc)


And don’t bother trying to replace the whopping 4 guns we donated, unless it’s a magical deal.

Put those funds towards whatever we replace the M777 with.


My 0.02

My suspicion is that "replacing" M777s donated to Ukraine is the CAF's way of getting a new SPG via UOR.

 

[MilEME09]

My suspicion is that "replacing" M777s donated to Ukraine is the CAF's way of getting a new SPG via UOR.

That's what I would do, "oh no we don't have enough to meet our needs" and with the 777 out of production something else will need to be procured.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Canadians: “we have a military? hahaha”….. *go back to scrolling on their phones.

go back to scrolling on their Chinese phones - fixed it for you….

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The CAF is concerned about under strength Reg force. Is the GoC, or is it happy to avoid paying 10k more salaries each month for the time being?

Curious how “in step” the MND and CDS are at this point..

 

[kev994]

I think they’ll be happy so long as someone shows up to fill sandbags every couple months.

 

[kev994]

I think they’ll be happy so long as someone shows up to fill sandbags every couple months.

In fact, I’m not entirely convinced that they care whether the sand bags actually get filled as long as they can tweet that they ‘called in the army.’

 

[dimsum]

The CAF is concerned about under strength Reg force. Is the GoC, or is it happy to avoid paying 10k more salaries each month for the time being?

Curious how “in step” the MND and CDS are at this point..

I think it’s more how in-step the MND is with GoC. I think housing and healthcare (the part that Feds can influence) are the closest crocodiles to the GoC.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think they’ll be happy so long as someone shows up to fill sandbags every couple months.

Because no one else in the country can do that.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think it’s more how in-step the MND is with GoC. I think housing and healthcare (the part that Feds can influence) are the closest crocodiles to the GoC.

I think the MND and CDS are a lot closer to being in step with “how things are going to go down” in the next couple of years. GoC will figure out what it has to do to keep its big neighbor to the South happy. Canada is beyond the point of having full control of its own destiny.