Iran Super Thread- Merged

[CougarKing]

Our friends in Iran need all the help and support we can offer. The situation is rapidly leaving equilibrium, and we are now entering a zone where we can only speculate. Calls for defections by the Republican Guard and reports of actions taken against the Basij may or may not signal the crumbling of the regimes pillars, and the activities of former president Rafsanjani also may signal some sort of sea change in political support, we can only wait and see.

- Faster, Please! - http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen -

Yikes. It appears the crackdown has begun.

Btw, Mr. Thucydides, isn't it called the Revolutionary Guard for Iran, not the Republican Guard (Iraq)?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI and NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writers Ali Akbar Dareini And Nasser Karimi, Associated Press Writers – 38 mins ago
TEHRAN, Iran – Police beat protesters and fired tear gas and water cannons at thousands who rallied Saturday in open defiance of Iran's clerical government, sharply escalating the most serious internal conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Eyewitnesses described fierce clashes after some 3,000 protesters, many wearing black, chanted "Death to the dictator!" and "Death to dictatorship!" near Revolution Square in downtown Tehran. Police fired tear gas, water cannons and guns but it was not clear if they were firing live ammunition.

Some protesters appeared to be fighting back, setting fire to militia members' motorcycles, witnesses said. Helicopters hovered, ambulances raced through the streets and black smoke rose over the city.

Police and militia were blocking protesters from gathering on the main thoroughfare running east from Revolution Square to Freedom Square, the witnesses said.

A massive rally in Freedom Square Monday set off three consecutive days of protests demanding the government cancel and rerun June 12 elections that ended with a declaration of overwhelming victory for hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi says he won and Ahmadinejad stole the election through widespread fraud. Mousavi has not been seen since or issued public comment since a rally Thursday.

Web sites run by Mousavi supporters had said he planned to post a message, but there was no statement by the time of the planned street protests at 4 p.m. (7:30 a.m. EDT, 1130 GMT). Some pro-reform Web sites called for people to take to the streets.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sternly warned opposition leaders Friday to end street protests or be held responsible for "the bloodshed, the violence and rioting" to come. The statement effectively closed the door to Mousavi's demand for a new election, ratcheting up the possibility of a violent confrontation.

As reports of street clashes became public, Iran's English-language state TV said that a suicide bombing at the shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini about 12 miles (20 kilometers) south of central Tehran had killed one person and wounded eight. The report could not be independently confirmed due to government restrictions on independent reporting.

The channel also confirmed that police had used batons and other non-lethal weapons against what it called unauthorized demonstrations.

Amateur video showed dozens of Iranians running down a street after police fired tear gas at them. Shouts of "Allahu Akbar!" — "God is Great" — could be heard on the video, which could not be independently verified.

The witnesses told The Associated Press that between 50 and 60 protesters were hospitalized after beatings by police and pro-government militia. People could be seen dragging away comrades bloodied by baton strikes.

Police clashed with protesters around Tehran immediately after the presidential election. Gunfire from a militia compound left at least seven dead, but further force had remained in check until Saturday.

Eyewitnesses said thousands of police and plainclothes militia members filled the streets to prevent rallies. Fire trucks took up positions in Revolution Square and riot police surrounded Tehran University, the site of recent clashes between protesters and security forces, one witness said.

Tehran Province Police Chief Ahmad Reza Radan said that police would "crack down on any gathering or protest rally which are being planned by some people." The head of the State Security Council also reiterated a warning to Mousavi that he would be held responsible if he encouraged protests.

Tehran University, which sits in the heart of downtown Tehran, was cordoned off by police and militia while students inside the university chanted "Death to the dictator!" witnesses said.

Shouts of "Viva Mousavi!" also could be heard. Witnesses said protesters wore black as a symbol of mourning for the dead and the allegedly stolen election, with wristbands in green, the emblem of Mousavi's self-described "Green Wave" movement.

All witnesses spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared government reprisals for speaking with the press. Iranian authorities have placed strict limits on the ability of foreign media to cover recent events, banning reporting from the street and allowing only phone interviews and information from officials sources such as state TV.

"I think the regime has taken an enormous risk in confronting this situation in the manner that they have," said Mehrdad Khonsari, a consultant to the London-based Center for Arab and Iranian Studies.

"Now they'll have to hold their ground and hope that people don't keep coming back. But history has taught us that people in these situations lose their initial sense of fear and become emboldened by brutality," he said.

Mousavi and the two other candidates who ran against Ahmadinejad had been invited to meet with Iran's Guardian Council, an unelected body of 12 clerics and Islamic law experts close to Khamenei that oversees elections. Its spokesman told state TV that Mousavi and the reformist candidate Mahdi Karroubi did not attend.

The council has said it was prepared to conduct a limited recount of ballots at sites where candidates claim irregularities but Mousavi's supporters did not withdraw his demands for a new election.

Both houses of the U.S. Congress approved a resolution on Friday condemning "the ongoing violence" by the Iranian government and its suppression of the Internet and cell phones.

The government has blocked Web sites such as BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several pro-Mousavi sites that are conduits for Iranians to tell the world about protests and violence.

Text messaging has not been working normally for many days, and cell phone service in Tehran is frequently down.

In an interview taped Friday with CBS, Obama said he is very concerned by the "tenor and tone" of Khamenei's comments. He also said that how Iran's leaders "approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard" will signal "what Iran is and is not."

A spokesman for Mousavi said Friday the opposition leader was not under arrest but was not allowed to speak to journalists or stand at a microphone at rallies. Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf told the AP from Paris it was even becoming difficult to reach people close to Mousavi. He said he had not heard from Mousavi's camp since Khamenei's address.

______

Associated Press Writer William J. Kole in Cairo contributed to this report.

 

[a_majoor]

Yikes. It appears the crackdown has begun.

Btw, Mr. Thucydides, isn't it called the Revolutionary Guard for Iran, not the Republican Guard (Iraq)?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

Wrong guard, same job description. My bad

 

[observor 69]

Iranian Police Clash With Protesters

Link

June 21, 2009

By THE NEW YORK TIMES
TEHRAN — Police officers used sticks and tear gas to force back thousands of demonstrators under plumes of black smoke in the capital on Saturday, a day after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said there would be “bloodshed” if street protests continued over the disputed presidential election.

Separately, state-run media reported that three people were wounded when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Tehran shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the southern part of the city, several miles from the scheduled protests. The report of the blast could not be independently confirmed.

The violence unfolded on a day of extraordinary tension across Iran. The opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, appeared at a demonstration in southern Tehran and called for a general strike if he were to be arrested. “I am ready for martyrdom,” he said.

Mr. Moussavi again called for a recount, and opposition protesters swore to continue pressing their claims of a stolen election against Iran’s embattled and increasingly impatient clerical leadership.

In Washington, President Obama called the government’s reaction “violent and unjust,” and, quoting Martin Luther King Jr., warned again that the world was watching what happened in Tehran.

Iran’s divisions played out on the streets. Regular security forces stood back and urged protesters to go home and avoid bloodshed, while the feared pro-government militia, the Basij, beat protesters with clubs and, witnesses said, electric prods.

In some places, the protesters pushed back, rushing the militia in teams of hundreds: At least three Basijis were pitched from their motorcycles, which were then set on fire. The protesters included many women, who even berated as “cowards” men who fled the Basijis. There appeared to be tens of thousands of protesters in Tehran, far fewer than the mass demonstrations early last week, likely because of intimidation.

The street violence appeared to grow more intense as night fell, and there were unconfirmed reports of multiple deaths. A BBC journalist at Enghelab (Revolution) Square reported seeing one person shot by security forces. An amateur video posted on YouTube showed a woman bleeding to death after being shot by a Basiji, the text posted with the video said.

“If they open fire on people and if there is bloodshed, people will get angrier,” said a protester, Ali, 40. “They are out of their minds if they think with bloodshed they can crush the movement.”

Mr. Obama’s statement was his strongest to date on the post-election turmoil in Iran. Saying that “each and every innocent life” lost would be mourned, he added: “Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

More at Link.

 

[pmath]

History teaches us that the American President has much influence over the outcome of this situation...

If you recall the 1986 election in the Philippines between President Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos believed the election would show a clear vote of confidence by his constituency, subsequently relieving him of any pressure from Reagan. Instead, the opposition formed a coalition behind Corazon Aquino, resulting in massive accounts of fraud from the Marcos gov't to produce a 'clear majority' win.

As the votes were being tallied, Reagan remained neutral in his stance, saying this election is more about the Philippines than the reaction of the US. Four days later, after the results were tallied and the first rally took place in EDSA Square in Manila. Both Marcos and Aquinos claimed victory.
The Reagan Administration stated that "The elections were marred by widespread fraud and violence perpetrated largely by the ruling party." Three days later, Marcos called for the arrest of two officials, and a subsequent mass demonstration in the EDSA Square took place, and with harsh words from Reagan, Marcos fled the country two days later.

Another account of election fraud occurred in 1991 with the election of Soviet Pres Mikhail Gorbachev and Russian Pres Boris Yeltsin. This was a trying time for the former Soviet Russia, as Reagan (again) was showing that his military power had much influence over the governments. The people of the USSR also knew what they wanted as a collective, and further repression after the perestroika and glastnost reforms, was not it. After the election, there was an attempted coup against the results. The initial reaction from the White House was for the reform, but after a personal letter from Yeltsin, airmailed to the Oval Office, the Administration changed their mind and accepted the results. The coup then disintegrated, and business went on as usual.

So for or against the reform, history shows us that the White House has a powerful ability to impose sanctions for either side.

The question remains unsolved Obama, how should you react? Your speech in Cairo is pro democratic reform, however your apathy toward the magnitude of the protest in Iran shows that you have no idea what to do.

Make up your mind. Before the end of the weekend, before more blood hits the deck.

P

 

[Yrys]

A Struggle for the Legacy of the Iranian Revolution, 20 June 2009, NY Times

Suspicions behind Iran poll doubts, 20 June 2009, BBC News,
Opposition supporters say the election numbers do not add up


Parallels with 1979, 20 June 2009, BBC News, 
Simpson reflects on the parallels between the 1979 revolution
and current events.

Saturday: Updates on Iran’s Disputed Election, 20 June 2009, NY Times

Violence Grips Tehran Amid Crackdown, 20 June 2009, NY Times

US urges Iran to end 'violence', 21 June 2009, BBC News
US President Barack Obama has warned Iran to stop all "unjust action against
its own people", after another day of protests over the presidential poll.

BBC eyewitness: 'Security everywhere'

A BBC correspondent describes Iran's capital in the aftermath of a massive security
operation to prevent opposition protests over disputed election results. Security
forces were everywhere in central Tehran in the late afternoon and early evening.

As I spent a couple of hours driving around in heavy traffic I could see thousands of
men, some uniformed members of the military riot squads, some units of revolutionary
guard, and everywhere basijis - militiamen who look like street toughs. The security
men were deployed on every street corner, in long lines down the sides of the roads,
and in all the main squares. The basijis wore riot helmets and carried big clubs. It was
designed to intimidate, and while I was there, it was working.

There were hundreds in Enghelab [Revolution] Square, close to Tehran university. Traffic
was being allowed to use it, with the drivers being eyeballed by the men with clubs who
lounged in thick groups wherever you looked.

Tear gas

All this was happening against the background of a city open for business, where commercial
life was going on. Shops this evening were not shuttered. The streets were jammed with cars,
with mopeds and motorbikes buzzing around them. The pavements were full too. Some of the
people looked as if they were waiting for some leadership, for a demonstration that they could
join. From time to time small groups would come together and try to move down the street
together chanting and clapping.

I saw one group of demonstrators, perhaps 400-500 people, walking briskly down one side of a
major road in the city centre. Bystanders were waving and making gestures of support. Then,
very quickly, tear gas canisters were fired into the crowd, and they broke and ran. It was a hot,
windless evening, and the gas hung over the streets, prickling noses and eyes long after the
demonstrators were dispersed.

Unknown territory

In places you could see the evidence of where trouble had been - smashed glass in a bus stop,
an overturned rubbish skip. And at different places and times, roads were closed while the security
forces dealt with the people that were there.

Iran's Supreme Leader had issued a stern warning at Friday prayers, warning opposition leaders
that they would be responsible for "bloodshed and chaos" if the protests continued. No doubt
firearms were not far away this evening, but I did not see any security men armed with
anything more than clubs and tear gas launchers.

The government forces might have wanted to scare people off the streets without using the
violence of which no one here doubts they are capable. They may have chalked the day up
to them. But putting security men on the streets does nothing to deal with the fundamentals
of this crisis. The Islamic republic of Iran continues to move into unknown territory. No one
knows where this will end.

 

[1feral1]

Well, the only thing guaranteed to come out of this mess is higher OIL prices which we'll all pay for, and are paying for right now. Brisbane petrol (gasoline) is 124.9c/L.

I show no sympathy for Iran, a country reeps what it sews.

Quite frankly, I've had a gutful of the whole lot.

Cheers from a cloudy, wet, depressing winter's day,


OWDU

 

[pmath]

I show no sympathy for Iran, a country reeps what it sews.

Quite frankly, I've had a gutful of the whole lot.

Sorry, could you expand on why you feel that way?
Sure Iran exports a ton of weapons across their borders, but how can that sanction this misery?

Who's to say that Ahmadinejad & Khameini turns a blind eye to these actions, and Mousavi wouldn't?
Ali Khameini may be the one with the real power, but if someone other that Ahmadinejad gets into office, and replaces Khameini in a few years, perhaps the ridiculous number of contraband weapons and supplies exported across those borders could be reduced.

That would make our job a LOT easier in the long run. We would reap what they can't sow.

 

[1feral1]

How old are you Pmath?

Learn your history of the country.

Does 444 days rock your memory? It does mine.

The current regime in Iran is ROTTEN. They want nuclear technology. There there has not been stabilty there since the 70's and yes I am old enough to remember it.

Iran has been guilty of promoting hatred and terrorism in the region, and even exported weapons, sponsored with $$ various factions, and made/manufactured EFP's for 'causes' within Iraq, and have been directly responsible for the death of Coaltion soldiers.

Like I say, a country reeps what it sews.

Here is a quote from a recent post of yours "I like to jam to Jimi, read and write politics, and play hard."

Sorry Pmath, I have an opinion based on my life experience, and I am not about to have a pissing contest with someone who has a politcal agenda.

OWDU
Iraq Vet 2006-2007

EDITed for clarity, and at least we both agree to like Hendrix. He was truly a classic.

 

[pmath]

I am too young to remember that, and yes I do know about the 444 days. I see what you mean by a country reaps what is sows, however that is all the more reason to facilitate change.

There hasn't been political stability over there, but do not forget that Iran is the sixth most developed of the Islamic Republics according to the UNHDI.
It's not that they want nuclear technology, they are 90% there. They've built out-of-date centrifuges (the blueprints of which were bought from Pakistan), and are progressing slowly toward their goal, while Obama is playing softball.

I see why you don't feel much for that country, but my fresh eyes have nothing but the utmost sympathy for their people, and my hopes are that these demonstrations will influence change. I'm simply trying to say that we need a third party to tell Ahmadinejad to step off (which I'm sure you don't disagree with).
After that, we can move forward and moderate the 'hatred and terrorism' in the region, which as we all know all stems from Iran.

That's alright if you don't want to keep this debate going, we're writing the same book, different page.

Ride on little wing,

 

[pmath]

Rafsanjani's Important Role

By HAMZA HENDAWI, Associated Press Writer – Sat Jun 20, 5:58 pm ET
CAIRO – One of Iran's most powerful men may be playing a key role behind closed doors in the country's escalating postelection crisis.
Former president and influential cleric Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani has made no public comment since Iran erupted into confrontation between backers of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and reformists who claim he stole re-election through fraud.
But Iranian TV has shown pictures of Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, speaking to hundreds of opposition supporters. And Rafsanjani, who has made no secret of his distaste for Ahmadinejad, was conspicuously absent from an address by the country's supreme leader calling for national unity and siding with the president.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised Rafsanjani, 75, on Friday as one of the revolution's architects and an effective political figure for many years, but he acknowledged that the two have "many differences of opinion."
"Of course, the president's ideas are closer to mine," Khamenei said, warning opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporters to halt protests or face the consequences.
While his true views, and even his whereabouts, remain unclear, any support for the opposition would place Rafsanjani in direct conflict with many of the most powerful clerics in Iran's highest echelons of power.
The stakes for the world are high.
Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear program in the face of international sanctions and Israeli threats of military action. The United States and other Western nations maintain that the program is geared toward making a bomb, a charge Iran consistently denies.
Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is seeking to improve relations with Iran, ending 30 years of animosity that have helped define the Islamic Republic.
The regime's militant wing, with Ahmadinejad its most visible face, takes a hard-line position on relations with Washington and is determined to push forward with the nuclear program regardless of the consequences, experts say.
A camp of pragmatic clerics and politicians led by Rafsanjani, while loyal to the revolution's principles, wants to build better ties with the West and a more friendly image of Iran.
"What is clear is that the leadership is far more polarized and splintered than has been clear in the past," said Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Friday's comments showed the country's ultimate authority is firmly behind Ahmadinejad, who has publicly accused Rafsanjani and members of his family of corruption. Experts said that could mean Rafsanjani's power is waning.
"Now that the leader has made clear he was supportive of Ahmadinejad and sharing the same vision of the future of the Islamic Republic, it can be taken as a major defeat for Rafsanjani and for the political options he promotes," said Frederic Tellier, an Iran expert in the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
Iran's crisis began when Mousavi, a reform-minded architect who served as prime minister in the 1980s, claimed he was the victor of the June 12 election, accusing Ahmadinejad of using widespread fraud to win it.
Mousavi insists he wants a new election, an option Khamenei ruled out.
Rafsanjani was president between 1989 and 1997, but failed to win a third term when in 2005, losing to Ahmadinejad in a runoff. He was a close follower of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, father of Iran's Islamic Revolution. He now heads the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.
He also is the head of the powerful Assembly of Experts, which comprises senior clerics who can elect and dismiss the country's supreme leader.
Alireza Nader, an expert on Iran with the RAND corporation, says Rafsanjani retains some leverage against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad as chairman of the Assembly of Experts. However, he says, Khamenei ignored a letter Rafsanjani wrote asking him to restrain Ahmadinejad, who accused the former president of corruption in a televised debate.
Ignoring the letter, Nader said, "was perceived by many Iranians as a rebuke to Rafsanjani and his role in the political system."
Rafsanjani's influence may have significantly dissipated as a result, he said.
"Rafsanjani is a son of the revolution," said Tellier of the International Crisis Group. "But his own future depends on how far the leader will allow Ahmadinejad to go in his attacks against Rafsanjani and his family."

Source –  HAMZA HENDAWI, Associated Press
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_rafsanjani_s_role

 

[CougarKing]

As said, it is hard to verify the reported death tolls.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090621/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

By NASSER KARIMI and WILLIAM J. KOLE, Associated Press Writers Nasser Karimi And William J. Kole, Associated Press Writers – 7 mins ago
TEHRAN, Iran – An eerie calm settled over the streets of Tehran Sunday as state media reported at least 10 more deaths in post-election unrest and said authorities arrested the daughter and four other relatives of ex-President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of Iran's most powerful men.

The reports brought the official death toll for a week of boisterous confrontations to at least 17. State television inside Iran said 10 were killed and 100 injured in clashes Saturday between demonstrators contesting the result of the June 12 election and black-clad police wielding truncheons, tear gas and water cannons.

Iran's regime continued to impose a blackout on the country's most serious internal conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

But fresh images and allegations of brutality emerged as Iranians at home and abroad sought to shed light on a week of astonishing resistance to hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

(...)

Thousands of supporters of Mousavi, who claims he won the election, squared off Saturday against security forces in a dramatic show of defiance of Khamenei.

Underscoring how the protesters have become emboldened despite the regime's repeated and ominous warnings, witnesses said some shouted "Death to Khamenei!" at Saturday's demonstrations — another sign of once unthinkable challenges to the virtually limitless authority of the country's most powerful figure.

Sunday's state media reports also said rioters set two gas stations on fire and attacked a military post in clashes Saturday. They quoted the deputy police chief claiming officers did not use live ammunition to dispel the crowds.

Iran has also acknowledged the deaths of seven protesters in clashes on Monday.

State media also reported a suicide bombing at the shrine of the Islamic Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on Saturday killed the attacker and injured five other people.

There was some confusion about the death toll. English-language Press TV, which is broadcast only outside the country, put the toll at 13 and labeled those who died "terrorists." There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy.

Amnesty International cautioned that it was "perilously hard" to verify the casualty tolls.

"The climate of fear has cast a shadow over the whole situation," Amnesty's chief Iran researcher, Drewery ****, told The Associated Press. "In the 10 years I've been following this country, I've never felt more at sea than I do now. It's just cut off."

Iran has imposed strict controls on foreign media covering the unrest, saying correspondents cannot go out into the streets to report.

Reporters Without Borders said 20 journalists were arrested over the past week. The British Broadcasting Corp. said Sunday that its Tehran-based correspondent, Jon Leyne, had been asked to leave the country. The BBC said its office remained open.

Also Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki held a news conference where he rebuked Britain, France and Germany for raising questions about reports of voting irregularities in hardline Ahmadinejad's re-election — a proclaimed victory which has touched off Iran's most serious internal conflict since the revolution.

Mottaki accused France of taking "treacherous and unjust approaches." But he saved his most pointed criticism for Britain, raising a litany of historical grievances and accusing the country of flying intelligence agents into Iran before the election to interfere with the vote. The election, he insisted, was a "very transparent competition."

That drew an indignant response from British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who "categorically" denied his country was meddling. "This can only damage Iran's standing in the eyes of the world," Miliband said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, urged Iran anew to conduct a complete and transparent recount, and Italy called on the regime to find a peaceful end to the dispute.

In Washington on Saturday, President Barack Obama urged Iranian authorities to halt "all violent and unjust actions against its own people." He said the United States "stands by all who seek to exercise" the universal rights to assembly and free speech.

(...)

Israeli President Shimon Peres applauded Iran's pro-reform protesters Sunday, saying the young should "raise their voice for freedom" — an explicit message of support from a country that sees itself as most endangered by the hard-line government in Tehran.

(...)

On Sunday, former reformist president Mohammad Khatami called for the formation of a board to decide the outcome of the disputed election, and urged the release of detained activists and an end to the violence in the streets.

The government has blocked Web sites such as BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several pro-Mousavi sites used by Iranians to tell the world about protests and violence. Text messaging has not been working in Iran since last week, and cell phone service in Tehran is frequently down.

(...)
____

Kole reported from Cairo. Associated Press Writers Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran, Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Sebastian Abbot in Cairo contributed to this report.

 

[Yrys]

Young Iranians use video to tell story, BBC News
Analysis: Titanic clash for Iran's future
'Ten killed' in Iran clashes - state TV, BBC News
Consequences of US overtures, BBC News


Tehran Tense After Clashes That Killed at Least 13

Faezeh Hashemi, daughter of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
attended a rally for Mir Hussein Moussavi. Iranian state television reported on
Sunday that Ms. Hashemi and four other members of the family had been arrested.

TEHRAN — A day after police and militia forces used guns, truncheons, tear gas and
water cannons to beat back thousands of demonstrators, a tense quiet set over this
city Sunday as the standoff between the government and thousands of protestors
hardened into a test of wills that has spilled blood and claimed lives.

 

[daftandbarmy]

First hand account of situation in Tehran forwarded by a mate in Europe.  Names removed.


On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 10:30 AM, xxx <xxx> wrote:
So are you out on the street? 
I’m watching every minute of it, but from where I’m sitting, it looks to me like a bit of a class thing: educated, westernized, students etc for Mousavi, working class for Ahmadinejad.  Or is it really a thing across all society?
Everyone is completely gripped, although I must say that the gulf Arabs are full of admiration for MA, and think he’s an absolute hero and genius…


Subject: Re: Fw: President Ahmadinejad's message

I have been on 2 marches and no it is right cross the board.  Of my 56 workers only 8 were going to vote for MA.  On thursdays march there were 4 mullahs and there were many hezbollahi looking people who were there.  There were labourers, taxi drivers and all sorts - it is definatley not an uptown thing.
Every day the more I read the more I detest the arabs so nothing surprises me.  They sure wouldn't want this to go Mousavi's way as it would give their population ideas!
Leaving on Monday but almost don't want to go as this is all so critical!
They were already planning on increasing the odds for MA but then it got out of control and they just stole the whole thing.  One example of how they were weighting it that way was that half of town voted with codes that were 1 2 3 4 with Mousavi being 4 and the other half of town voting for 77 88 66 and 44 with Ahmadinejad being 44.  As the votes are counted by hand it would be much easier to glance at the number versus the name...
anyway cross your fingers and pray that it doesn't turn into a blood bath.

 

[Xiang]

Combine this with the fact that only 51% of the population is Persian

Where did you get this number from?

And Overwatch Downunder, what is wrong with Iran wanting peaceful nuclear power?  The nation lives off of the money it makes selling Oil.  It is currently suffering from brown outs and power shortages by burning its own oil for energy, not to mention burning away future profits.

There is no independent or global body nuclear watchdog that has concluded Iran is developing nuclear weapons.  In fact they are stating quite the opposite.

The ONLY people saying they are developing nuclear weapons are those with an agenda (US/Israel), and they are doing so with little to no proof.

I challenge you to find me ONE non bias organization that can say with absolute certainty that Iran is developing nuclear technology for weapons purposes.... Keep in mind however, I have MANY sources stating otherwise, and most of those sources clearly state the NEED for Nuclear energy in Iran right now.

And for the love of god/allah/buddah/whatever, don't quote US officials or CNN/Faux news rhetoric.

 

[Yrys]

Twitter on the Barricades: Six Lessons Learned, NY Times
Gauging Obama in Iran
Miliband (UK Foreign Secretary) denies Iran 'meddling', BBC News
Iran and Britain in diplomatic stand-off as protest death toll rises, TIMES



A Supreme Leader Loses His Aura as Iranians Flock to the Streets

TEHRAN — The Iranian police commander, in green uniform, walked up Komak Hospital Alley
with arms raised and his small unit at his side. “I swear to God,” he shouted at the protesters
facing him, “I have children, I have a wife, I don’t want to beat people. Please go home.”

A man at my side threw a rock at him. The commander, unflinching, continued to plead.
There were chants of “Join us! Join us!” The unit retreated toward Revolution Street, where
vast crowds eddied back and forth confronted by baton-wielding Basij militia and black-clad
riot police officers on motorbikes. Dark smoke billowed over this vast city in the late afternoon.
Motorbikes were set on fire, sending bursts of bright flame skyward. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
the supreme leader, had used his Friday sermon to declare high noon in Tehran, warning of
“bloodshed and chaos” if protests over a disputed election persisted.

He got both on Saturday — and saw the hitherto sacrosanct authority of his office challenged
as never before since the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic and conceived for it a
leadership post standing at the very flank of the Prophet. A multitude of Iranians took their
fight through a holy breach on Saturday from which there appears to be scant turning back.

Khamenei has taken a radical risk. He has factionalized himself, so losing the arbiter’s lofty
garb, by aligning himself with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against both Mir Hussein
Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of
the revolution. He has taunted millions of Iranians by praising their unprecedented
participation in an election many now view as a ballot-box putsch. He has ridiculed
the notion that an official inquiry into the vote might yield a different result. He has
tried pathos and he has tried pounding his lectern. In short, he has lost his aura.

The taboo-breaking response was unequivocal. It’s funny how people’s obsessions come back
to bite them. I’ve been hearing about Khamenei’s fear of “velvet revolutions” for months now.
There was nothing velvet about Saturday’s clashes. In fact, the initial quest to have Moussavi’s
votes properly counted and Ahmadinejad unseated has shifted to a broader confrontation with
the regime itself.

Garbage burned. Crowds bayed. Smoke from tear gas swirled. Hurled bricks sent phalanxes
of police, some with automatic rifles, into retreat to the accompaniment of cheers. Early
afternoon rumors that the rally for Moussavi had been canceled yielded to the reality of
violent confrontation.

I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering. That
commander talking about his family was not alone. There were other policemen complaining
about the unruly Basijis. Some security forces just stood and watched. “All together, all together,
don’t be scared,” the crowd shouted. I also know that Iran’s women stand in the vanguard.
For days now, I’ve seen them urging less courageous men on. I’ve seen them get beaten
and return to the fray. “Why are you sitting there?” one shouted at a couple of men perched
on the sidewalk on Saturday. “Get up! Get up!”

Another green-eyed woman, Mahin, aged 52, staggered into an alley clutching her face and in
tears. Then, against the urging of those around her, she limped back into the crowd moving
west toward Freedom Square. Cries of “Death to the dictator!” and “We want liberty!”
accompanied her. There were people of all ages. I saw an old man on crutches, middle-aged
office workers and bands of teenagers. Unlike the student revolts of 2003 and 1999, this
movement is broad.

“Can’t the United Nations help us?” one woman asked me. I said I doubted that very much.
“So,” she said, “we are on our own.”

The world is watching, and technology is connecting, and the West is sending what signals it
can, but in the end that is true. Iranians have fought this lonely fight for a long time: to be
free, to have a measure of democracy.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, understood that, weaving
a little plurality into an authoritarian system. That pluralism has ebbed and flowed since 1979
— mainly the former — but last week it was crushed with blunt brutality. That is why a whole
new generation of Iranians, their intelligence insulted, has risen. I’d say the momentum is with
them for now. At moments on Saturday, Khamenei’s authority, which is that of the Islamic Republic
itself, seemed fragile. The revolutionary authorities have always mocked the cancer-ridden Shah’s
ceding before an uprising, and vowed never to bend in the same way. Their firepower remains
formidable, but they are facing a swelling test.

Just off Revolution Street, I walked into a pall of tear gas. I’d lit a cigarette minutes before — not
a habit but a need — and a young man collapsed into me shouting, “Blow smoke in my face.” Smoke
dispels the effects of the gas to some degree. I did what I could and he said, “We are with you” in
English and with my colleague we tumbled into a dead end — Tehran is full of them — running from
the searing gas and police. I gasped and fell through a door into an apartment building where
somebody had lit a small fire in a dish to relieve the stinging. There were about 20 of us gathered
there, eyes running, hearts racing. A 19-year-old student was nursing his left leg, struck by a
militiaman with an electric-shock-delivering baton. “No way we are turning back,” said a friend
of his as he massaged that wounded leg.

Later, we moved north, tentatively, watching the police lash out from time to time, reaching Victory
Square where a pitched battle was in progress. Young men were breaking bricks and stones to a size
for hurling. Crowds gathered on overpasses, filming and cheering the protesters. A car burst into
flames. Back and forth the crowd surged, confronted by less-than-convincing police units. I looked up
through the smoke and saw a poster of the stern visage of Khomeini above the words, “Islam is the
religion of freedom.” Later, as night fell over the tumultuous capital, gunfire could be heard in the
distance. And from rooftops across the city, the defiant sound of “Allah-u-Akbar” — “God is Great” —
went up yet again, as it has every night since the fraudulent election. But on Saturday it seemed
stronger. The same cry was heard in 1979, only for one form of absolutism to yield to another.
Iran has waited long enough to be free.

 

[a_majoor]

More:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_IRAN_ELECTION?SITE=TNKNN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Arrests of Rafsanjani kin show Iran clerics split

By NASSER KARIMI and WILLIAM J. KOLE
Associated Press Writers

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran's government said Sunday it arrested the daughter and four other relatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the country's most powerful men, in a move that exposed a rift among the ruling Islamic clerics over the disputed presidential election.

State media also reported at least 10 more deaths, bringing the official toll for a week of confrontations to at least 17. State television inside Iran said 10 were killed and 100 injured in clashes Saturday between demonstrators contesting the result of the June 12 election and black-clad police wielding truncheons, tear gas and water cannons.

Police and members of the Basij militia took up positions in the afternoon on major streets and squares, including the site of Saturday's clashes. There was no word on any new clashes Sunday, although after dark many people in Tehran went to their rooftops to shout "Death to the dictator" and Allahu akbar," a common form of defiance in recent days.

State-run Press TV reported that Rafsanjani's eldest daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, and four other unidentified family members were arrested late Saturday. On Sunday evening, it said the four others had been released but that Hashemi remained in detention. However, Iran's ambassador to France Seyed Mehdi Miraboutalebi said on France's RFI radio that Hashemi had been released.

Last week, state television showed images of Hashemi, 46, speaking to hundreds of supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. He alleges fraud in the June 12 election, which the government said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won.

After Hashemi's appearance, hard-line students gathered outside the Tehran prosecutor's office and accused her of treason, state radio reported.

The arrests are the strongest sign yet of a serious divide among Iran's ruling clerics.

Also Sunday, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said on state television that the number of people questioning the election results was large and "this group should be respected and one should not mix this big population's account with a small group of rioters."

Rafsanjani, 75, heads two powerful institutions. One of them, the cleric-run Assembly of Experts, has the power to monitor and remove the supreme leader, the country's most powerful figure. The second is the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.

The assembly has never publicly reprimanded the unelected Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since he succeeded Islamic Revolution founder Aytollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. But the current crisis has rattled the once-untouchable stature of the supreme leader with protesters openly defying his orders to leave the streets.

Underscoring how the protesters have become emboldened despite the regime's repeated and ominous warnings, witnesses said some shouted "Death to Khamenei!" at Saturday's demonstrations - another sign of once unthinkable challenges to the virtually limitless authority of the supreme leader.

Rafsanjani was deeply critical of Ahmadinejad during the presidential campaign and has the potential to lead an internal challenge to Khamenei.

His daughter's arrest came as something of a surprise: In his Friday sermon to tens of thousands of worshippers, Khamenei praised Rafsanjani as one of the architects of the revolution and an effective political figure for many years. Khamenei acknowledged, however, that the two have "many differences of opinion."

Khamenei has accused foreign media of making "malicious" attempts to portray a schism among the ruling clerics. At Friday's prayers, he acknowledged that all four presidential candidates "have differences, but all of them belong to the system."

Iran's regime continued to impose a blackout on the most serious internal conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

But fresh images and allegations of brutality emerged as Iranians at home and abroad sought to shed light on a week of astonishing resistance to hard-line Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

The New-York based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said scores of injured demonstrators who had sought medical treatment after Saturday's clashes were arrested by security forces at hospitals in the capital.

It said doctors had been ordered to report protest-related injuries to the authorities, and that some seriously injured protesters had sought refuge at foreign embassies in a bid to evade arrest.

"The arrest of citizens seeking care for wounds suffered at the hands of security forces when they attempted to exercise rights guaranteed under their own constitution and international law is deplorable," said Hadi Ghaemi, spokesman for the campaign, denouncing the alleged arrests as "a sign of profound disrespect by the state for the well-being of its own people."

"The government of Iran should be ashamed of itself. Right now, in front of the whole world, it is showing its violent actions," he said.

Thousands of supporters of Mousavi, who claims he won the election, squared off Saturday against security forces in a dramatic show of defiance of Khamenei.

Iran has also acknowledged the deaths of seven protesters in clashes on Monday.

State media also reported a suicide bombing at the shrine of Khomeini on Saturday killed the attacker and injured five other people.

There was some confusion about the overall death toll. English-language Press TV, which is broadcast only outside the country, put the toll at 13 and labeled those who died "terrorists." There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy.

Amnesty International cautioned that it was "perilously hard" to verify the casualty tolls.

"The climate of fear has cast a shadow over the whole situation," Amnesty's chief Iran researcher, Drewery Dyke, told The Associated Press. "In the 10 years I've been following this country, I've never felt more at sea than I do now. It's just cut off."

Iran has imposed strict controls on foreign media covering the unrest, saying correspondents cannot go out into the streets to report.

Reporters Without Borders said 23 journalists were arrested over the past week. The British Broadcasting Corp. said Sunday that its Tehran-based correspondent, Jon Leyne, had been asked to leave the country. The BBC said its office remained open. The U.S.-based newsmagazine Newsweek said its journalist Maziar Bahari was arrested Sunday morning and had not been heard from.

Also Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki held a news conference where he rebuked Britain, France and Germany for raising questions about reports of voting irregularities in hardline Ahmadinejad's re-election - a proclaimed victory which has touched off Iran's most serious internal conflict since the revolution.

Mottaki accused France of taking "treacherous and unjust approaches." But he saved his most pointed criticism for Britain, raising a litany of historical grievances and accusing the country of flying intelligence agents into Iran before the election to interfere with the vote. The election, he insisted, was a "very transparent competition."

That drew an indignant response from British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who "categorically" denied his country was meddling. "This can only damage Iran's standing in the eyes of the world," Miliband said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Iran anew to conduct a complete and transparent recount.

In Washington on Saturday, President Barack Obama urged Iranian authorities to halt "all violent and unjust actions against its own people." He said the United States "stands by all who seek to exercise" the universal rights to assembly and free speech.

Obama has offered to open talks with Iran to ease a nearly 30-year diplomatic freeze, but the upheaval could complicate any attempts at outreach.

Republican senators criticized Obama on Sunday for not taking a tougher public stand in support of the protesters, with one saying the president had been "timid and passive."

Israeli President Shimon Peres applauded Iran's pro-reform protesters Sunday, saying the young should "raise their voice for freedom" - an explicit message of support from a country that sees itself as most endangered by the hard-line government in Tehran.

Saturday's unrest came a day after Khamenei sternly warned Mousavi and his backers to all off demonstrations or risk being held responsible for "bloodshed, violence and rioting." Delivering a sermon at Friday prayers attended by tens of thousands, Khamenei sided firmly with Ahmadinejad, calling the result "an absolute victory" that reflected popular will and ordering opposition leaders to end their street protests.

Mousavi did not directly reply to the ultimatum.

His camp, meanwhile, denied reports that he had proclaimed himself ready for martyrdom on Saturday.

"Mousavi has never said this," his close ally, Qorban Behzadiannejad, told the AP. Mousavi's Web site also said statements that Mousavi was preparing for death were inaccurate.

----

Kole reported from Cairo. Associated Press Writers Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran, Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Sebastian Abbot in Cairo contributed to this report

 

[Yrys]

Relatives of Ex-President of Iran Are Briefly Detained, NY Times

In Iran, One Woman's Death May Have Many Consequences, TIMES.com

Iran's revolution has now run through a full cycle. A gruesomely captivating video
of a young woman — laid out on a Tehran street after apparently being shot, blood
pouring from her mouth and then across her face — swept Twitter, Facebook and
other websites this weekend. The woman rapidly became a symbol of Iran's escalating
crisis, from a political confrontation to far more ominous physical clashes. Some sites
refer to her as "Neda," Farsi for the voice or the call. Tributes that incorporate startlingly
upclose footage of her dying have started to spring up on YouTube.

ADD : Protesters mourn 'Angel of Iran'
The Revolutionary Guard vowed to stop the street demonstrations, causing some protesters
to stay home. But others gathered Monday to honor the death of Neda Soltan.


Iran silences street protesters, BBC News

Iranian authorities have deployed thousands of security officers on the streets
of Tehran, after a week of mass protests over a disputed election. Witnesses said
there were no rallies in the capital on Sunday, a day after 10 people were reported
killed in clashes between police and protesters. A number of alleged protest leaders
are reported to have been arrested.

The authorities have also continued a crackdown on foreign media - expelling the
BBC's Tehran correspondent. The corporation confirmed Jon Leyne had been asked
to leave the country, but said the BBC office in Tehran would remain open. Campaign
group Reporters Without Borders says 23 local journalists and bloggers have been
arrested over the past week.
...

Mousavi's plea

As the security forces continued to round up protesters on Saturday, they arrested
several family members of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - a powerful opponent of
Mr Ahmadinejad.

Analysts said the arrests came as a surprise because Mr Rafsanjani is head of the
Assembly of Experts - a cleric run group which has the power to remove the supreme
leader. All of Mr Rafsanjani's relatives were reported to have been freed by Sunday
evening.

Meanwhile, Mr Mousavi, whose supporters make up most of the protesting crowds,
urged them to continue their rallies. "Protesting against lies and fraud is your right.
In your protests continue to show restraint," a statement on his website said.

Analysts say Mr Mousavi's statements and the street protests his supporters have
organised represent the biggest challenge to the state in the Islamic republic's 30-
year history.

 

[Yrys]

In the Battle for Iran’s Streets, Both Sides Seek to Carry the Banner of Islam, NY Times

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, ended his prayer sermon in tears on Friday,
invoking the name of a disappeared Shiite prophet to suggest that his government was
besieged by forces of evil out to destroy a legitimate Islamic government.

The opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, in criticizing the government, demanded the
kind of justice promised by the Koran and exhorted his followers to take to their rooftops
at night to cry out “Allahu akhbar,” or God is great.

In the battle to control Iran’s streets, both the government and the opposition are deploying
religious symbols and parables to portray themselves as pursing the ideal of a just Islamic
state. That struggle could prove the main fulcrum in the battle for the hearts and minds of
most ordinary Iranians, because the Islamic revolution, since its inception, has painted itself
as battling evil. If the government fails the test of being just, not least by using excessive
violence against its citizens, it risks letting the opposition wrap itself in the mantle of Islamic
virtue.

Rest of article on link

10 killed in Iran protests, The Daily Star
Tehran on a knife-edge as opposition defies Islamic rulers
...
State television said 10 people were killed and more than 100 wounded
in riots and clashes in Tehran on Saturday, blaming "terrorists" armed
with firearms and explosives.

Iran's deputy police chief Ahmad Reza Radan blamed "thugs" from the
exiled opposition group the People's Mujahedeen of Iran (PMOI) for the
violence. The official reports, which cannot be confirmed accuse "rioters"
of setting two petrol stations and a mosque ablaze in protest at a disputed
poll result.
...


Former Iran President at Center of Fight Between Classes of the Political Elite

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/06/22/world/22raf.600.jpg

CAIRO — Even before his daughter and four other relatives were briefly detained on Sunday,
one of the big mysteries to envelop Iran since the disputed presidential election has been the
role of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

One of Iran’s wealthiest and most powerful men, a former right-hand man to the father
of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Mr. Rafsanjani was an outspoken critic
of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the campaign and a supporter of the opposition
candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi. His absence from public view, coupled with the provocative,
though temporary, detention of his family members appears to have escalated an internal
battle between two classes of Iran’s political elite. Even if the street protests are stopped,
the split threatens to paralyze the state and undermine the legitimacy it has tried to construct
since the 1979 revolution, analysts say.

“I see the country’s political elite more divided than anytime in the Islamic Republic’s
30-year history,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a political analyst with the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace. “Rafsanjani, one of the republic’s founding fathers, the man who
made Khameini Supreme Leader, is now in the opposition.”

Mr. Rafsanjani, who leads two powerful state institutions, has been working behind the
scenes to find a compromise solution to the disputed June 12 presidential election, a
relative said Sunday. The detention of his family members, this relative said, was a
pressure tactic on the part of his opponents. It seems clear that the 75-year-old is at
the center of a fight for the future of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Rafsanjani’s vision of
the state, and his position in his nation’s history, is being challenged by a new political
elite led by Mr. Ahmadinejad and younger radicals who fought Iraq during the eight-
year war.

Mr. Ahmadinejad and his allies have tried to demonize Mr. Rafsanjani as corrupt and weak,
attacks that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not strongly discouraged. On the other side,
opposition leaders, especially Mr. Moussavi, have received support from Mr. Rajsanjani,
political analysts said. “It has become an extremely dangerous, zero-sum game,” said an
expatriate political consultant who asked not to be identified because his family lives in
Iran and he was afraid of retribution.

It is a quirk of history that Mr. Rafsanjani, the ultimate insider, finds himself aligned with a
reform movement that once vilified him as deeply corrupt. Mr. Rafsanjani was doctrinaire
anti-American hard-liner in the early days of the revolution who remains under indictment
for ordering the bombing in of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires in 1994 when he was president.
But he has evolved over time to a more pragmatic view, analysts say. He supports greater
opening to the West, privatizing parts of the economy, and granting more power to civil elected
institutions. His view is opposite of those in power now who support a stronger religious
establishment and have done little to modernize the stagnant economy.

Beyond the clash of ideas, the battle is also personal.

“At a political level what’s taking place now, among many other things, is the 20-year rivalry
between Khamenei and Rafsanjani coming to a head,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “It’s an Iranian
version of the Corleones and the Tattaglias; there are no good guys and bad guys, only bad
and worse.” It is not clear what leverage Mr. Rajsanjani can bring to this contest. If he speaks
out, the relative said, he will lose his ability to broker a compromise. Mr. Rafsanjani leads
two powerful councils, one that technically has oversight of the supreme leader, but it is not
clear that he could exercise that authority to challenge Ayatollah Khamenei directly. Yet even
in his silence, Mr. Rafsanjani’s pedigree presents a problem for Ayatollah Khameini.

In his Friday sermon, the supreme leader appealed for unity among the elite. He mildly criticized
Mr. Ahmadinejad for his personal attacks on Mr. Rafsanjani. But the leader also made it clear that
even revolutionary credentials could not save political leaders if they go too far, a clear threat to
Mr. Rafsanjani, analysts said. “If the political elite ignore the law — whether they want it or not —
they would be responsible for the chaos and bloodshed,” Ayatollah Khameini said. “I urge old
friends and brothers to be patient and keep control of yourselves.”

Mr. Rafsanjani has been in opposition before. In the days of the shah, he was a religious student of
Ayatollah Khomeini at the center of Shiite learning, in the city of Qum. He was imprisoned under the
shah, and became so closely associated with the revolutionary leader he was known as “melijak
Khomeini,” or “sidekick of Khomeini.”’ After 1979, he went on to become the speaker of Parliament.
There, Mr. Rafsanjani established himself in a role that would continue for decades. “Just as the
ayatollah had come to personify the revolution, Rafsanjani came to personify the state,” wrote the
author and Iran expert, Robin Wright, in her book “In the Name of God, The Khomeini Decade.”
Mr. Rafsanjani later served two terms as president and was instrumental in elevating Ayatollah
Khamenei to replace Ayatollah Khomenei in 1989.

People who worked in the government at the time said that Mr. Rafsanjani, as president, ran the nation
— while Ayatollah Khameini followed his lead. But over time the two grew apart, as Ayatollah Khameini
found his own political constituency in the military and Mr. Rafsanjani found his own reputation sullied.
He is often accused of corruption because of the great wealth he and his family amassed. He was so
damaged politically that after he left the presidency, he failed to win enough votes to enter Parliament.
In 2002, he was appointed to the head of the Expediency Council, which is supposed to arbitrate disputes
between the elected Parliament and the unelected Guardian Council.

And in 2005, he ran for president again but lost in a runoff to Mr. Ahmadinejad. He was then elected to
lead the Assembly of Experts. The body has the power to oversee the supreme leader and replace him
when he dies, but its members rarely exercise power day to day.

One political analyst said the key to understanding Mr. Rafsanjani is in a book that he wrote about,
Amir Kabir, the prime minister under Nasserdin Shah, who was killed in 1852 but was widely regarded
as Iran’s first modern reformer. Mr. Rafsanjani wants to go down in history as a modern day Amir Kabir,
the analyst said. And that may explain his decision, for now, to stay silent and aloof from the street
clashes as well as the leadership that many believe stole an presidential election. “He is the question
mark right now,” said the expatriate political analyst. “A lot of people are hoping that he is the guy
who can mend it.”

 

[Fiver]

There's probably going to be a huge escalation of violence and a lot of deaths soon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGyZo2jOOYY

The natural gas lines of the Basij's HQ in eastern Tehran were set on fire, creating an explosion in the building killing 5 members of the organization.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Seems to me the writing is on the wall now.  People should now realize that they are not in control of their own destiny and are trapped in a ideological dictatorship.  Unless there is a good reason to keep going up against the police and military, they should suck back and start making plans.  Getting captured/killed/tortured/identified at this point seems counterproductive and they seem to have a suitable number of martyrs at this point. 
Hopefully the average Joe/Jane (Foued/Farah?) Iranian will realize there is a better way than what they are stuck with right now.  As ever, you can't kill ideas.