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Further delays in US F-35 testing schedule

PuckChaser said:
If the generations of fighters aren't important, why don't we just make a whole bunch of Spitfires and save the cash?

It is the terminology that is meaningless. While we're at it, why not just skip the F-35 altogether. By the time we actualy have one, someone is bound to have something better no ? The JSF program has its origins in the early 1990s, has fighter development been null world-wide since then ??

Rather than chanting "Gen this" or "Gen that", the focus should rather be on what capabilities we want, what can deliver it and how that capability holds up to technological change over its lifespan ( quite a few years for us as usual), not what abstract "generation" is its supposedly from.
 
PuckChaser:  That case, silly as it is, has actually been made:
http://www2.macleans.ca/tag/paul-mitchell/

CDN Aviator: Exactly.

Mark
Ottawa
 
You guys are all forgetting the $$$ signs the government is visualizing from the economic spinoffs, that's where their real focus is....
 
Laurie Hawn tells it like he sees  it.. 

http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-15259.html


At least he has some cred, having actually been zoomie.
 
For what it's worth I already posted:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/99306/post-1025381.html#msg1025381

Plus a lengthy message from Laurie Hawn with some heated discussion:
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-15259.html

Fairly fair and balanced.

Mark
Ottawa
 
Good news:

Some F-35s Back Flying - JPO Update
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3abe719737-15fd-41af-9361-31335a9db93a

A "design artifact" unique to a new electrical starter/generator configuration is the likely cause of the in-flight dual generator failure on F-35A test jet AF-4 on March 9, says the Joint Program Office.

The newer generator is installed on test jets AF-4, BF-5 and CF-1. The other aircraft - AF-1/2/3 and BF-1/2/3/4 - have the older generator configuration. As a result, the JPO has rescinded its stop-flying order for these aircraft, and flight testing has resumed.

The other SDD aircraft and the two low-rate initial production (LRIP) aircraft flying with the newer generator - AF-6 and -7 - remain on the ground as the investigation into the failure continues.

According to Lockheed Martin, the F-35 has two generators mounted to the engine gearbox and a third (Gen 3) on the integrated power package (IPP). Supplier Hamilton Sundstrand tells my colleague Bill Sweetman the dual configuration is actually a single line replaceable unit with two generators on it.

After the in-flight failure of both engine-driven generators, the aircraft reconfigured to run off of Gen 3 on the IPP and AF-4 returned safely, Lockheed tells Bill, adding that batteries were available to back up Gen 3, had they been needed.

Meanwhile, further to this post,
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/99306/post-1024441.html#msg1024441

the F-35B may be starting a death-spiral (price can only go up):

Marines Sign on for F-35C Versions
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post:305ec716-08e3-44bb-8f7a-ffc1b9276bab

The arranged marriage between the USMC and Navy is official on F-35. CNO Adm. Gary Roughead and Marine Corps Commandant James Amos today signed a "tactical aviation integration" agreement whereby the Marines will purchase some F-35Cs to operate from Navy aircraft carriers. The plan is for the Marines to buy 80 F-35C carrier versions and another 340 F-35B Stovl aircraft.

“This decision to purchase C-model JSFs is representative of USMC commitment to tactical air integration with the Navy,” according to a statement from the commandant’s office “It is important to note that the continued development of F-35B remains the centerpiece of the USMC TACAIR fixed wing modernization program.”

While the Marines remain behind the F-35C, the program is riddled with problems, including the recent announcement that Lockheed Martin is shopping for another helmet solution after technical issues with the VSI systems helmet persist. And, it remains to be seen if this will eventually be thought of as the day that the Marine’s embarked on the slippery slope away from Stovl and headlong onto the aircraft carrier...

Nice for Brits though, so far the only other F-35C customer.  Also means the USN plans on 340 Cs for itself, total of 680
F-35s for Navy Dept.:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/navy-marines-reaffirm-support-for-lockheed-martin-f-35-jet.html


Mark
Ottawa
 
Draw you own conclusions, especially regarding implications for Canada--excerpts from GAO statement, March 15

JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER
Restructuring Should Improve Outcomes, but Progress Is Still Lagging Overall

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11450t.pdf

...Affordability for the U.S. and partners is challenged by a near doubling in average unit prices since program start and higher estimated life-cycle costs. Going forward, the JSF requires unprecedented funding levels in a period of more austere defense budgets...

After more than 9 years in development and 4 in production, the JSF program has not fully demonstrated that the aircraft design is stable, manufacturing processes are mature, and the system is reliable. Engineering drawings are still being released to the manufacturing floor and design changes continue at higher rates than desired. More changes are expected as testing accelerates. Test and production aircraft cost more and are taking longer to deliver than expected...

[p. 3] ...
Near-term procurement quantities were reduced by 246 aircraft through 2016; the annual rate of increase in production was lowered; and the full-rate production decision moved to 2018, a 5-year slip from the current baseline.

The military services were directed to reexamine their initial operational capability (IOC) requirements, the critical need dates when the warfighter must have in place the first increment of operational forces available for combat. We expect the Marine Corps’ IOC will slip significantly from its current 2012 date and that the Air Force’s and and Navy’s IOC dates will also slip from the current dates in 2016 [so if we get any F-35As in 2016 they won't have USAF IOC status]...

[p. 4]...
DOD does not yet know the full impact from restructuring actions on future procurement funding requirements beyond this 5-year period. Cost analysts are still calculating the net effects from deferring the near-term procurement of 246 aircraft to future years and from lowering the annual rate of increased procurement...Future funding requirements could be higher than projected and the quantities, which are considered affordable by the U.S. and allies, could be reduced, further driving up unit costs [emphasis added]...

[p. 5]...the estimated average unit procurement price for the JSF has about doubled since program start and current forecasts indicate that life-cycle costs will be substantially higher than the legacy aircraft it replaces [emphasis added]. Rising JSF costs erode buying power and may make it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to buy and sustain as many aircraft as planned. a period of more austere defense budgets...[for Canada see:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/82898/post-1026337.html#msg1026337 ]

[p. 7]...
Although still hampered by the late delivery of test aircraft to testing sites, the development flight test program significantly ramped up operations in 2010, accomplishing 3 times as many test flights as the previous 3 years combined. The Air Force conventional takeoff and landing variant significantly exceeded the annual plan...

[p. 8]...
After completing 9 years of system development and 4 years of overlapping production activities, the JSF program has been slow to gain adequate knowledge to ensure its design is stable and the manufacturing process ready for greater levels of annual production. The JSF program still lags in achieving critical indicators of success expected from well-performing acquisition programs. Specifically, the program has not yet stabilized aircraft designs...manufacturing cost increases and delays in delivering test and production aircraft indicate need for substantial improvements in factory throughput and performance of the global supply chain...

[p. 11]...
Since the first flight in December 2006, only about 4 percent of JSF capabilities have been completely verified by flight tests, lab results, both. The pace of flight testing accelerated significantly in 2010, but overall progress is still much below plans forecast several years ago...

[p. 13]...
The JSF test program relies much more heavily than previous weapon systems on its modeling and simulation labs to test and verify aircraft design and subsystem performance. However, only 3 of 32 labs and models have been fully accredited to date...

The JSF test program relies much more heavily than previous weapon systems on its modeling and simulation labs to test and verify aircraft design and subsystem performance. However, only 3 of 32 labs and models have been fully accredited to date...JSF depends on millions more lines of software code than the F-22A Raptor and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet [emphasis added]. While good progress has been reported on the writing of code, total of code have grown by 40 percent since preliminary design review and 13 percent since the critical design review.  The amount of code needed will likely increase as integration and testing efforts intensify.  A second software integration line added as part of the restructuring will improve capacity and output...

[p. 14]...
The JSF program is at a critical juncture—9 years in development and 4 years in limited production–but still early in flight testing to verify aircraft design and performance. If effectively implemented and sustained the restructuring DOD is conducting should place the JSF program on a firmer footing and lead to more achievable and predictable outcomes. However, restructuring comes with a price—higher development costs,fewer aircraft received in the near term, training delays, prolonged times for testing and delivering the capabilities required by the warfighter...

News story:

Lockheed F-35 Faces `Significant' Software Delays, GAO Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/lockheed-f-35-jet-faces-significant-software-delays-gao-says.html

Plus:

House Holds JSF Hearings
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post:052ebf77-6526-49bc-80d2-f7b262618d89

Mark
Ottawa
 
Further to second part of this post,
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/99306/post-1026281.html#msg1026281
got the USN numbers wrong, sorry:
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/22842/?SID=97e4d4cfcacc2b34ef14c4043b6211c6

...The Navy will buy 260 F-35Cs, specifically designed for carrier operations. The Marines will buy a mix: 80 F-35Cs and 340 short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35Bs...

So the USN will have a whole lot more Super Hornets than F-35Cs for quite a while:
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5950216&c=FEA&s=CVS

...
By the mid-2020s, according to Navy planners, each carrier air wing will include two Super Hornet squadrons and two Lightning II squadrons. Every fourth F-35C squadron will be a Marine unit.

The Navy continues to plan for a fleet of 10 carrier air wings, with 44 strike fighters per wing, organized into 10- and 12-plane squadrons. The Navy will field 35 strike fighter squadrons composed of Super Hornets or F-35Cs, and the Marines will field five F-35C squadrons.

Ultimately, the Lightnings will serve alongside a fleet of 556 F/A-18 Es and Fs.

There is no intention to field an all-F-35 strike fighter force with any carrier air wing, a senior Navy official said. A new, sixth-generation aircraft will be developed as a follow-on to the F-35, and those aircraft will replace the Super Hornets, the official said. Characteristics of the new aircraft - including whether it will be manned, unmanned or optionally manned [emphasis added]- have yet to be determined, the official said...

Make of that what one will in terms of Canada.  But to me it seems the USN in not all that excited about the F-35C.  Unless it is betting the B is taken off probation and sent to the slammer.  ¿quién sabe?

Mark
Ottawa
 
Further thought based on the immediately above:

...A new, sixth-generation aircraft will be developed as a follow-on to the F-35, and those aircraft will replace the Super Hornets, the official said. Characteristics of the new aircraft - including whether it will be manned, unmanned or optionally manned [emphasis added]- have yet to be determined, the official said...

Might it not be more sensible for Canada to acquire the cheapest possible fighter, and smallest numbers thereof, that can do the job for Canadian airspace patrol and defence (for which stealth does not seem necessary)?  And consider what sort of aircraft--UCAV?--that would do best for the expeditionary strike role, if Canadian government policy dictates that is one our Air Force should have?

One suspects that over the next twenty or so years the current fighter pilots' job will be a diminishing one.  Sad for someone like me for whom--beginning with Douglas Bader and Stan Turner--they have always been my military heroes:
http://www.century-of-flight.net/Aviation%20history/WW2/aces/Percival%20Stanley%20Turner.htm
http://www.century-of-flight.net/Aviation%20history/WW2/aces/Douglas%20Bader.htm

More:
http://www.constable.ca/caah/turner.html

242Sqdn3.jpg

RAF 242 Sqdn, 1940. L to R: Crowley-Milling, Tamblyn, Turner, Saville, Campbell, McKnight, Bader, Ball, Homer, Brown

Mark
Ottawa
 
I would argue that since we do not know what shape this 6th generation fighter will take, or when it will be fielded, we cannot know what our needs will be capability wise in the interim, assuming Canada can afford to purchase another airframe in the semi distant future. Better to have an aircraft that will do us for the next 20-30 years in whatever roll we could require.
 
Maybe we don't need stealth today in defence of Canada, but what about in 10 years or 20 years?

Enough with going for a second or third rate option. What it comes to fighters, you get the best and newest you can, especially if your the CF because your looking at 25-35 years service.
 
ArmyRick said:
Maybe we don't need stealth today in defence of Canada, but what about in 10 years or 20 years?

Stealth technology does not exist in a vaccum. Developments in EW and other technologies continue to evolve and will, sooner rather than later, render the F-35s LO technology useless.

 
Start of post at AW&ST's "Ares" blog, price for A looks less than PBO:

Venlet's Statement on F-35 Status
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post:550c13b5-f1eb-4873-a765-c2166071f5e8

For those who felt JSF program executive officer U.S. Navy Vice Adm. David Venlet didn't reveal much at Tuesday's House Armed Services Committee subcommittee hearing, the prepared statement submitted by Venlet and Air Force acquisition chief David Van Buren is now available online.
http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=7f57d3a5-4a31-41c6-afeb-2fe177aef2a8

Some random highlights:

- prices for the 37 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines under the LRIP 4 fixed-price contract agreed in February are $14.99m for the CTOL/CV variant and $32.07m for the STOVL variant. Add those to the LRIP 4 aircraft prices and you get $126.6m for an F-35A, $141.5m for an F-35B and $157.9m for an F-35C.

- deliveries of F135 engines are behind schedule...

Mark
Ottawa
 
CDN Aviator said:
Stealth technology does not exist in a vaccum. Developments in EW and other technologies continue to evolve and will, sooner rather than later, render the F-35s LO technology useless.

Why bother with fighters at all then? Lets just get BOMARC missiles to defend our airspace.
 
PuckChaser said:
Why bother with fighters at all then? Lets just get BOMARC missiles to defend our airspace.

Where did i say we didnt need fighters ?

Or are you just too much in a hurry to respond that you cant be bothered to understand whay i said ?
 
CDN Aviator said:
Stealth technology does not exist in a vaccum. Developments in EW and other technologies continue to evolve and will, sooner rather than later, render the F-35s LO technology useless.

Agree that the LO technology will be rendered useless at some point, I just believe it will be later than sooner.

That being said, it then comes down to what other characteristics set the JSF apart from its competitors, and in my opinion, the sensor array and the complete interoperability with other countries flying the same aircraft are only 2 things which make this aircraft a better purchase than any other available.
 
WingsofFury said:
Agree that the LO technology will be rendered useless at some point, I just believe it will be later than sooner.

It took less than 20 years for the F-117 to go from first flight to a bunch of pieces in a museum in Belgrade. Stealth is a precarious set of technologies and one single big development in EW will unballance it.

the sensor array 

It is rather impressive, The distributed aperature system in perticular. It will be interesting to see if everything delivers what the glossy brochures say.


 
Missed this at end of the AW&ST post:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/99306/post-1026660.html#msg1026660

Remember our first F-35 is supposed to arrive (somewhere) in 2016:

...
The [US] Air Force, in its statement, says it expects a two-year delay in the F-35A's IOC, which would push it back to 2018.

Getting well past 2016 when our first F-35 is supposed to arrive.  And if there is any serious delay in a new fighter the MND says our Hornets will start dropping like...
http://www.cdfai.org/the3dsblog/?p=87

Peter may need better briefers.  Or interest in reality.

Mark
Ottawa
 
CDN Aviator said:
Where did i say we didnt need fighters ?

Or are you just too much in a hurry to respond that you cant be bothered to understand whay i said ?

Its what you implied. Stealth even with EW improvements is going to work like a cam net. Delay detection for a small period of time in order to get the jump on the enemy. If you're running a strike package in a Mach 1.5, I'm sure the fighter jocks would rather be detected 5 seconds later, perhaps already being too late for the ground based radar to bring SAM systems to bear. I think its worth the extra little bit of cash to give our pilots the best possible equipment to keep them and the aircraft in one piece after a mission in order to run another one.
 
PuckChaser said:
Its what you implied.

Far from it. It is unfortunate that this is what you read into it.


going to work like a cam net.

Funny you shoudl mention that. Cam nets dont work that great against IR. i was rather surprised.

I think its worth the extra little bit of cash to give our pilots the best possible equipment to keep them and the aircraft in one piece after a mission in order to run another one.

Not denying that. makes sense to me. I would just be careful about assuming that it if its not useful now, it will be in 20-30 years. the pace of development in EW systems for IADS suggests different.
 
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