Failing Islamic States - 2011

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

One dead, nearly 600 injured in Cairo clashes


Wednesday, February 2, 2011 | 4:16 PM
CTV.ca News Staff

LINK

One person is dead and nearly 600 others injured as bloody battles broke out between supporters of embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and anti-government protesters Wednesday on the streets of Cairo, as the military stood by and watched.

Egyptian Health Minister Ahmed Sameh Farid said a man was killed when he fell from a bridge, while 596 people have sustained injuries in the fighting.

Farid told The Associated Press that the deceased man is believed to have been a member of the country's security forces. However, he was dressed in civilian clothes at the time of his death. He said authorities are investigating the incident.

In one area of intense fighting near the Egyptian Museum, pro-Mubarak demonstrators lined rooftops and threw bricks and firebombs onto the protesters below. Throughout Tahrir Square, Mubarak supporters and their opponents threw bottles and chunks of concrete at one another, while others engaged in fistfights that left them bruised and bloodied.

Makeshift health clinics were set up by the anti-government protesters in nearby mosques and alleyways to treat the wounded. Pleas to soldiers stationed in Tahrir Square for protection went unanswered.

Some of the protesters accused the government of calling in supporters to attack them.

"After our revolution, they want to send people here to ruin it for us," said Ahmed Abdullah, a lawyer protesting in Tahrir Square. "Why do they want us to be at each other's throats, with the whole world watching us?"

Meanwhile, state television broadcast an order for all protesters to leave Cairo's Tahrir Square, where most of the protesters have congregated for more than a week, due to "provocative elements throwing firebombs." It was not immediately clear who issued the order, though earlier in the day the army called for an end to the disruptive demonstrations.

Wednesday's fighting marked the first　mass display of support for Mubarak, the aging Egyptian leader who is blamed by protesters for an array of economic and social problems that have afflicted his people during his 30 years in power.

His supporters on the street told reporters Wednesday that they believed their lives had improved under Mubarak's rule and that the continuing demonstrations were plunging the country into chaos.

"We have been a stable country since the days of the Pharaohs. These demonstrators want to turn us into Somalia: poor and at war with itself," said Samir Hamid, a 58-year-old war veteran who can remember when Mubarak first took power.

Others said they felt the president had been insulted by the protests that have raged for the past nine days.

"I feel humiliated," said Mohammed Hussein, a 31-year-old factory worker. "He is the symbol of our country. When he is insulted, I am insulted."

The president's supporters grew in number from the previous evening and CTV Middle Eastern Bureau Chief Martin Seemungal said many carried flags that appeared as though they had been freshly handed out.

Seemungal said there were no immediate problems when the pro-Mubarak supporters first entered Tahrir Square.

"For a while, there was sort of this tense standoff…and then they just suddenly started clashing," Seemungal told CTV's Canada AM from Cairo on Wednesday.

Early reports suggested that the two sides were involved in some small fistfights, but CTV's Lisa LaFlamme reported that the Tahrir square clashes eventually involved rocks, fires, petrol bombs and even some gunfire.

"This thing is out of control," LaFlamme told CTV News Channel, when describing the scene in Cairo.

On Twitter, LaFlamme described the clashes she saw on the street, including protesters on camels charging the crowd and pro-Mubarak protesters throwing clay pots at their opponents.

Ali Mikkawi, an Egyptian-Canadian who has been helping to organize protests in Cairo, said it was difficult to say who was behind the clashes on the pro-Mubarak side.

"It's just chaos," Mikkawi told CTV News Channel in a telephone interview from Cairo, who said anti-government protesters had discovered at least one pro-Mubarak supporter carrying police identification.

The Egyptian army's decision not to intervene in the clashes was indicative of the mostly "neutral stance" the army has taken since the widespread anti-Mubarak protests began late last month, Seemungal said.

Earlier Wednesday, the army asked the anti-government protesters to end their demonstrations against Mubarak, arguing that the protesters' message has been heard and that it is time to resume daily routines in Cairo.

Military spokesperson Ismail Etman went on television Wednesday to address the protesters, who have held continuous demonstrations in Cairo's Tahrir Square for nine straight days.

Etman asked the protesters to stand down "out of love for Egypt," so that the country can chart a path back to stability.

"You have started coming out to express your demands and you are the ones capable of returning normal life to Egypt," Etman said.

"Your message has arrived, your demands have become known."

The escalating violence also led to swift condemnation from the international community.

On Wednesday, White House spokesperson Robert Gibbs said the U.S. "deplores and condemns the violence that is taking place in Egypt."

In Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron said Egyptian authorities must move quickly to bring in political reforms, and said "if it turns out that the regime in any way has been sponsoring or tolerating this violence, that would be completely and utterly unacceptable." UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who was meeting Cameron in London Wednesday, also called the violence "unacceptable."

The 82-year-old Mubarak announced he will not run for office in upcoming elections this fall -- yet opposition groups involved in the demonstrations have indicated they want him to leave office as soon as possible.

Andre Pierre, a Middle East analyst at the United States Institute of Peace, said that while it is difficult to accurately project the level of public support for a new government, it is clear that opposition groups have the upper hand in the debate over how soon Mubarak should leave office.

"I suspect that the momentum towards Mubarak's departure is there and will continue and that in the next days, actually weeks, there is going to be a lot of negotiation aimed to speed up the process," Pierre told CTV's Canada AM from Washington on Wednesday morning.

Some Mubarak supporters said the protesters were asking for too much in demanding Mubarak leave office immediately.

"It's not like Mubarak can rub Aladdin's lamp and pull out a genie who will fix everything," said Fatima al-Shal, 41, when speaking to an Associated Press reporter in Egypt.

"We have to give them time to peacefully change power."

With files from The Associated Press

More on LINK

 

[OldSolduer]

Instead of watching a thread spiral, we can watch a whole region spiral.

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Violence in Cairo


Mubarak Supporters Clash with Opposition Movement

02/02/2011
Spiegel ONLINE

LINK

Streetfighting has broken out in Cairo between Mubarak supporters and opposition protesters. Hundreds of people are reported to have been injured, shots were heard and Molotov cocktails were thrown. The situation appeared to be completely out of control.

The protests had largely been peaceful up until now. But on Wednesday, violent clashes broke out in central Cairo between opponents and supporters of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as the situation in the capital appeared to be getting out of control.


Thousands of Mubarak supporters descended on Tahrir Square on Wednesday, carrying Egyptian flags and portraits of the president. They rode into the crowd on horses and camels and attacked protesters with whips and sticks. Members of the opposition, who had earlier built barricades to try to keep the pro-Mubarak elements out of the square, defended themselves with stones and steel bars. Shots were fired into the air, apparently by soldiers or police. The Egyptian Defense Ministry later denied that the army had fired on demonstrators, according to the news agency Reuters.

There were reports that hundreds of people had been injured. The news agency AFP quoted medical sources as saying that at least 500 people had been hurt in Wednesday's violence.

The television network Al Jazeera reported that journalists had been targeted, and that a reporter working for the Al Arabiya station had been stabbed. CNN reporter Anderson Cooper was also attacked by a mob and punched in the head, according to a Twitter message sent out by CNN. A BBC reporter said via Twitter that a female camera operator had been brutally beaten up, while the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet said that two of its reporters had been attacked by an angry mob.

According to SPIEGEL ONLINE reporter Matthias Gebauer, anti-government protesters had attacked injured Mubarak supporters with clubs as they were being carried out of the crowd. Organizers of the protests tried to stop the attacks, without success.

'We Can't Kill Each Other'

Young women repeatedly ran into the crowds and urged protesters not to throw any more stones. "We are all Egyptians, we can't kill each other," one shouted. Among the protesters were large numbers of young men from Cairo's impoverished suburbs, who apparently wanted revenge for the years of oppression under Mubarak. Men broke up paving slabs to get projectiles to throw.

As night fell, there were reports of petrol bombs being thrown. AFP reported that two Molotov cocktails had landed in the grounds of the Egyptian Museum.

The fighting between rival groups continued on Tahrir Square on Wednesday evening, with more pro-Mubarak forces storming the square. The situation became increasingly confused, as it became more and more difficult to determine who belonged to which group.

Hard-line opposition protesters appeared determined to remain within Tahrir Square, with some demonstrators telling journalists they did not feel it was safe to leave.

SPIEGEL ONLINE's Matthias Gebauer reported on Wednesday evening that looters were exploiting the chaos in the center of Cairo to break into parked cars.

Fears of a Bloodbath

Soldiers stationed around the square did not intervene in the clashes. According to a BBC journalist on the scene, there were too few soldiers present to keep order.

Eyewitnesses told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the army had supported the protesters by checking aggressive Mubarak supporters as they arrived and that they had discovered that some of the supposed supporters were actually members of the security forces.

Members of the opposition also claimed that pro-Mubarak protesters had been paid to come to the square. According to the news agency Reuters, the Egyptian Interior Ministry denied reports that plainclothes police were involved in the clashes.

Mohamed ElBaradei, a prominent member of the opposition, told the BBC that he feared there would be a "bloodbath" on the square. He said the clashes were "yet another symptom … of a criminal regime using criminal acts."

There were also reports of clashes between rival groups in the city of Alexandria, although CNN reported that demonstrations there had been largely peaceful.

Contact to the Muslim Brotherhood

According to sources in Berlin, the German government has been in contact with moderate forces within the Muslim Brotherhood to talk about the ongoing unrest. The German government also called on the Egyptian authorities to allow a process of democratization in the country.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle had spoken to ElBaradei on the telephone, according to a statement by the German Foreign Ministry. "I call on the security forces in Egypt not to use force against the demonstrators," Westerwelle said in a statement after the telephone conversation. "Every additional escalation of the situation must be avoided."

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence on Wednesday. "Any attack against peaceful demonstrators is unacceptable and I strongly condemn it," he said. British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday afternoon that the day's violence shows that Egyptian authorities need to accelerate the pace of reform. In reference to reports that pro-government forces had fomented violence, he added that "if it turns out that the regime in any way has been sponsoring or tolerating this violence, that would be completely and utterly unacceptable."


In a statement, the White House said that it "deplores and condemns" the violence and that it was "deeply concerned about attacks on the media and peaceful demonstrators."

Urged to Go Home

The violence appeared to be a move by the autocrat to clamp down on the anti-government protests, which are now in their ninth day. The army had earlier urged the demonstrators to go home. In a message on state television, an army spokesman told Egyptians that their message had been heard, in a reference to Mubarak's appearance on television on Tuesday evening, when the president announced that he would not run for reelection in September. Earlier on Tuesday, the opposition movement had held the largest rally in Egypt's history, with as many as 2 million people gathering in Tahrir Square, the center of the protest movement.

The United Nations estimates that around 300 people have been killed since the protests began last week. It is unclear whether Wednesday's violence will add to that toll.

With reporting by Matthias Gebauer and Daniel Steinvorth in Cairo

dgs - with wire reports

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Ice-Cold Calculation


Mubarak's Effort to Discredit the Protest Movement

02/03/2011
By Matthias Gebauer in Cairo
Spiegel ONLINE

LINK

Protests in Cairo turned bloody and violent on Wednesday as forces backing Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak confronted demonstrators in the city center. An ugly scene of chaos and hatred erupted -- one which could ultimately help Mubarak stay in office for now.

The young woman's voice is already hoarse, but that doesn't stop her from shouting. "We are all Egyptians. We should not be killing each other," she croaks. There are tears in her eyes. Maha has persevered for seven days and nights on Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, protesting peacefully for the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. Now groups of shouting men are walking past her. Many are bleeding from head wounds after being hit by rocks. Their faces are distorted with hatred, and they are carrying rocks in their hands. Maha spreads out her arms and tries to stop them. "Enough of this," she shouts. "Stop doing this." But the men ignore her and keep running as in a trance. Then they throw their rocks.

It is around 1 p.m. on Wednesday, one day after the biggest demonstrations to date, in which hundreds of thousands of people, possibly even millions, peacefully protested on Tuesday against President Mubarak. The Egyptian strongman, however, is still in office -- he refuses to relinquish power, saying that he intends to remain in office until September, when his current term as president ends. On Wednesday, tens of thousands of regime opponents were back on the square in downtown Cairo, the heart of their uprising against the government, which has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for the last 30 years, lining its pockets in the process.

It would be the day on which the dream of a peaceful revolution against Mubarak would finally collapse.

Bloody Power Struggle

At noon on this Wednesday, a bloody street battle began on Tahrir Square between opposition forces and the followers of the ruling elite. Thousands of Mubarak supporters suddenly appeared, seemingly out of nowhere, on all major access roads and began pushing their way toward the protest of the regime opponents. In the end, no one will know for sure who threw the first of the thousands of rocks, or who struck the first blow. By evening, only one thing was clear: According to official information, more than 600 people were wounded in the street fighting and three were killed, although the real numbers are likely much higher. Later in the evening, a doctor estimated that there were 1,500 wounded. The revolt against Mubarak has turned into a bloody power struggle.

On Thursday morning, the violence continued. Gunfire rang out on the square in the early morning hours, killing at least three. Sustained bursts of fire continued for several hours.

The aggressiveness of the Mubarak supporters, who his party had organized and brought into downtown Cairo, was palpable from the beginning. Shouting men jostled in front of the barricades around the square, striking Western reporters without warning and trying to force them to return to their hotels. "This is a matter between Egyptians," they chanted. "Let us handle it ourselves." It seemed as if such scenes were being staged by the regime -- as they had been on Tuesday. During the March of Millions, state television initially broadcast only absurd images of a small demonstration of Mubarak supporters in front of the royal palace. The regime simply ignored the mass protest on Tahrir Square.

Clashes Continued in Earnest

But then, on Wednesday, the rocks began to fly. Thousands of Mubarak supporters forced their way into the square, next to the Egyptian Museum, joined by others riding horses and camels, and carrying countless signs bearing the likeness of a youthful Mubarak. The storm had been unleashed. Within minutes, protesters on both sides were throwing volleys of rocks at each other. The military, which had remained neutral until now, was still separating the two groups. Dozens of men with gaping head wounds were pulled out of the crowd, while their friends pulled up new stones from the pavement and the street clashes continued in earnest.

With the violence seemingly uncontrollable, the soldiers withdrew for a time and partisans on both sides climbed onto the tanks and threw even more rocks. At first, the mostly younger regime opponents tried to stave off the intruders by forming human chains, but soon they too became increasingly violent. Instead of students, who had been at the forefront for much of the week, young people from the impoverished Cairo suburbs were suddenly on the front lines in the running battle against the Mubarak supporters. In a frenzy, they rushed forward while loudly shouting "God is great," hurled their rocks and ran back to collect new ammunition.

The regime opponents repeatedly dragged their wounded opponents across the square, shouting things like: "This is an undercover policeman." The suspicion alone was enough to prompt a small crowd of hate-filled people to gather around one wounded man, who was then brutally beaten. "He is like Mubarak. Now we will kill him," they shouted. In most cases, moderate protestors managed to prevent mob rule -- but it certainly seemed possible that some of the wounded may have been killed on side streets.

Makeshift Bandages

There seemed to be no end sight to the hatred and bloodthirsty clashes. The two fronts moved back and forth for hours. Security forces that had been called to the scene remained in position on a highway overpass behind the Egyptian Museum and on a Nile River bridge. A helicopter hovered constantly over the combat zone, where men, despite having lacerations covered with makeshift bandages, continued to rush at the opposing side, fueled by adrenalin. "We have suffered for 30 years, and now we're going to kill them," some on the side of the Mubarak opponents shouted. "They want to destroy what we have achieved with Mubarak," the president's supporters shouted back.

The regime opponents see the escalation of violence as a calculated move on the part of the president. They claim that with the organized mobilization of his supporters -- which, they say, include experienced provocateurs -- he was deliberately trying to provoke the murderous images of street fighting that were being broadcast around the world throughout the day. The clashes continued to flare up periodically at night amid the sounds of gunfire and exploding Molotov cocktails.

Still, opposition groups must also regain control over their movement. As much as Egyptians suffered under the regime, the images of sheer hatred among the ranks of Mubarak opponents were equally repulsive.

Ice-Cold Calculations

These images suit the president's purposes all too well. In his speech following the massive protest on Tuesday, he made it clear that he -- and only he, as the commander of the hard-hitting police force and the merciless intelligence service -- could organize an orderly transition to a new government. After a day of civil-war-like images coming from their capital, his words may have impressed many Egyptians. Instead of pinning their hopes on open confrontation with Mubarak, many could opt for a compromise that guarantees the president an honorable exit -- but one which would also be a transition into a system in which his supporters could at least have a say.

If the opposition calls for another major protest in Cairo on Friday, it could prove to be more difficult to mobilize supporters than before. Besides, its leaders must now fear that the next demonstration could end in a bloodbath. This could discredit the protest movement, and Mubarak's ice-cold calculations could add up.

It is now clear that the faltering president will stop at nothing to get what he wants. He is even willing to take the risk that the mob will go on a rampage and plunder Cairo in the coming days. There are few recipes for peaceful resistance against a president who is willing to be this ruthless to secure his position of power, even for such a short time.

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[a_majoor]

How the Obama administration is responding. Like the Green Revolution in Iran, they are not extending any support to the pro democracy protesters, leaving the field to the most thuggish elements of the Regime and Islamic radicals (to pick the two most prominent poles):

http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/02/02/no-holes-barred/?singlepage=true

Egypt: No-Holes-Barred Diplomacy
February 2, 2011 - by Richard Fernandez

The question yesterday was whether Mubarak’s offer not to run in September would be enough to defuse the situation. The emerging answer is no, as supporters of Mubarak, some mounted on horses and camels, clashed with oppositionists in the street.  But the protesters aren’t done either, even if they may have to shift to lower gear. Egypt’s Internet is back up. This suggests the fight will go on until one side wins.  What’s a president to do in such a situation?

One immediate result of the return in connectivity is that the world will once again get to see the blood and guts.

    With the restoration of access, Twitter lit up from the scene. Among those in tweeting from Tahrir Square are Pulitzer-prize-winning New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof), who just sent this series of messages via the web:

        In my part of Tahrir, pro-#Mubarak mobs arrived in buses, armed with machetes, straight-razors and clubs, very menacing.

        I saw some people who were motionless and seemed badly injured. Hard to know casualties, but they’re adding up.

        Pro-#Mubarak thugs at #Tahrir v hostile to journalists. Several journalists attacked. I was threatened but am fine.

The spectacle will naturally arouse strong passions in the Arab world and calls for President Obama to “do something.” But what will the president do?  Jackson Diehl of the Washington Post quotes Egyptian human rights activists who say the Obama administration has been coming down on both sides of the fence for too long. Diehl believes the president must choose sides or risk being blamed by both. Diehl says dump Mubarak:

    Hassan watched President Obama’s statement Tuesday night, and saw it as a good example of what U.S. policy has been the last two years: “fine words, but no action.” “I think that this administration in practice has supported not only the Mubarak regime but all the authoritarian regimes in the Arab region,” he said.

    “The Cairo speech president Obama made two years ago sent a very good message to the Arab people. But in reality the administration engaged with the regimes at the expense of the people. It didn’t help the people of the region and it didn’t help U.S. long-term interests — and this is what we not see in the streets of Cairo.”

The problem is that Mubarak has a been a loyal supporter of the U.S. diplomatic game, as Tony Blair explained. Bucking the tide of journalistic opinion, Blair said Mubarak is “immensely courageous and a force for good”:

    Speaking to Piers Morgan on CNN, Blair defended his backing for Mubarak.

    “Where you stand on him depends on whether you’ve worked with him from the outside or on the inside. I’ve worked with him on the Middle East peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians so this is somebody I’m constantly in contact with and working with and on that issue, I have to say, he’s been immensely courageous and a force for good,” he said.

    “Inside Egypt, and I have many Egyptian friends, it’s clear that there’s been a huge desire for change.”

    Asked if the west had not been an obstacle to change, Blair defended the policies of his and other governments.

    “I don’t think the west should be the slightest bit embarrassed about the fact that it’s been working with Mubarak over the peace process but at the same time it’s been urging change in Egypt,” he said.

Mubarak’s “courage,” as Blair described it, may now be working against Obama. The 82 year-old Egyptian is proving to be as stubborn as hell.  So far he has not folded before President Obama’s signaling offensive. President Obama has been running an information operation along the lines he knows; crafting  messages ever so artfully, a void here and a shade there, the coloring exactly right.  Jake Tapper noted that the president was avoiding the press, taking no questions on Egypt and even excluding reporters from the ceremonial signing of the START Treaty, to which only photographers were allowed. He has been keeping his core message away from the White House press corps.

In the meantime the biggest bandwidth to Egypt has been ascribed to the US military, which is using its informal connection to talk to their counterparts. “U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke to Defense Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi yesterday, the second time in recent days. And Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, Obama’s top military adviser, has maintained contact with his counterpart, armed forces chief of staff Sami Hafez Enan.”

At the very top of the communication’s strategy is the Presidential Sphinx. The president has remained vague, calling for “a best-case outcome of free elections that reaffirm human dignity, all on a non-specific timeline.” AOL’s Lauren Frayer believes the vagueness is deliberate:

    The United States also appears to be taking that cautious view, and President Barack Obama’s speech late Tuesday about Egypt seemed deliberately vague. Obama said he spoke with Mubarak by phone for 30 minutes and described what he told him.

    “It is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful and it must begin now,” Obama said. But it’s unclear whether Obama’s demand that change begin now means Mubarak must leave office immediately, or whether it means he can stay on and implement major reforms in the lead-up to September elections.

A 30 minute phone call is not a lot of bandwidth, and if Obama’s conversation with Mubarak is as described, the clashes between pro- and anti- Mubarak protesters suggest that the Egyptian leader is interpreting Obama’s recommendations in an equally vague way.

It remains to be seen whether President Obama’s carefully contrived signaling will have any effect. His mix of public messages, intentional vagueness, internal news blackouts, and the use of back channels to convey specific information may have been altogether too much subtlety for a situation that may call for a clear black and white decision. Is he he going to throw Mubarak out and forcefully supplant him with a new man? Or will he get behind Mubarak’s enemies and make peace with whatever comes?

So far he has been trying to eat his cake and have it too. But perhaps the time is fast approaching when he will have to throw in behind one faction or the other in Egypt. Signaling doesn’t always stop a runaway train.

The president’s main professional experience is the campaign. Prior to becoming president of the United States, his only executive experience was running the Chicago Annenberg Foundation. Media operations are what he knows. Now in his first real foreign policy crisis, he’s trying to use the same tools. Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post catches the atmosphere of Obama-style crisis management. It is, as ever, approached as a PR problem.

    Aaron David Miller, speaking to Politico’s Josh Gerstein, agrees this isn’t much of an improvement over what Obama has been saying for days: “The only new element was the word ‘now’ and that was finessed. This leaves the U.S. to some degree still at odds with and out of step with what the political opposition … is demanding on the street.”

    Moreover, what does Obama’s statement mean? Mubarak himself can claim there is a transition afoot since he won’t be running again for president. Obama didn’t do much to shove Mubarak off the stage, saying only, “Throughout this process, the United States will continue to extend the hand of partnership and friendship to Egypt. And we stand ready to provide any assistance that is necessary to help the Egyptian people as they manage the aftermath of these protests.” Is the helping hand to Mubarak or to those insisting he depart immediately? …

    I asked a former Middle East hand if there was something new here. He replied, “Nothing.” Why a nothing speech, then? He answered, “My interpretation is that this is an effort to claim credit. That’s why he went immediately after Mubarak. They [the Obama advisers] know they muffed it and missed it and blew it — so the empty remarks are an effort to establish a counter narrative.”

    In any other administration, you’d think such an assessment harsh. But remember, this is an administration that views Egypt’s revolution as a PR problem.

The words of Gilbert and Sullivan come to mind, slightly altered:

    I am the very model of a modern Media-General,
    I’ve talking points on any subject didactical or liberal,
    I know the hosts of talk shows, and claim mandates historical
    From Roe to Wade to I myself, in order categorical;
    I’m very well acquainted, too, with matters economical,
    I understand that printing money is rarely problematical,
    About Alaskan natives I’ve definite enlightened views
    With reasons why ladies shouldn’t shoot the wilder moose.
    And though my practical knowledge is both spottily and scantily,
    Enlivened but with anecdotes from the 8th or 19th century;
    But still, in matters rhetorical, polemical, political,
    I am the very model of a modern Media-General.

 

[Journeyman]

From today's CBC:
"Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae said the world is awaiting Canada's response to the crisis in Egypt"

:rofl: 
Even I'm not sufficiently egotistical to be believe that the world cares what Canada thinks, let alone waits.

 

[The Bread Guy]

- edited to add link to Hansard -

If you want to see what your MP may, or may not, have said during the emergency House of Commons debate on Egypt on 2 Feb 11, link here for the transcript of the debate.


"Egyptian army starts rounding up journalists":  "The Egyptian military started rounding up journalists, possibly for their own protection, on Thursday after they came under attack from supporters of President Hosni Mubarak who have been assaulting anti-government protesters.  The U.S. State Department condemned what it called a "concerted campaign to intimidate" foreign journalists in Egypt. The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Wednesday that violence against journalists was part of a series of deliberate attacks and called on the Egyptian military to provide protection for reporters.  Foreign photographers reported a string of attacks on them by Mubarak supporters on Thursday near Tahrir Square, the scene of battles between supporters of Mubarak and protesters demanding he step down after nearly 30 years in power.  One Greek print journalist was stabbed in the leg with a screwdriver. A Greek freelance photographer was punched in the face by a group of men who stopped him on the street near Tahrir Square and smashed some of his equipment.  An Associated Press reporter saw eight foreign journalists detained by the military near the prime minister's office, not far from Tahrir Square ...."

"UN to evacuate staff from Egypt":  "The United Nations moved Thursday to evacuate much of its staff in Egypt, while about 5,000 passengers besieged Cairo airport a day after the protests that have gripped the Egyptian capital degenerated into a bloody street brawl.  The U.N. was sending in two chartered aircraft to take 350 staff and their families to Cyprus, said Rolando Gomez, a spokesman for its peacekeeping mission on the Mediterranean island. Each aircraft was to make two roundtrips to Cyprus.  "The staff will be temporarily relocated due to the security situation in Egypt," Gomez told The Associated Press, adding that arrangements had been made to accommodate up to 600 staff and their families at hotels in Cyprus. It was unclear whether they would remain on the island or head to other destinations.  Gomez said some U.N. staff will remain in Egypt to carry out "essential functions." ...."

"Egypt unrest: Canal transits continue, some port ops affected":  "Suez Canal transits are continuing without disruption or delays, despite continuing unrest in Egypt. At some of the country’s ports, however, the situation is starting to have an impact on operations.  Container terminals are working between 0900 and 1400 hours local time. Delays and congestion of stacking areas can be expected due to the fact that containers continue to be discharged while no cargoes are being released.  Break bulk operations are only permitted for non-direct delivery cargo, and discharge operations are very slow, due to a shortage of labour and diesel for shore equipment.  Meanwhile, however, silos for bulk cargo are working and all oil & gas terminals are fully operational.  Sidi Kerir and Ain Sukhna along the Suez Canal are also fully operational.  Due to the curfew between 1700 and 0700 hours local time, no services are offered for crew change, Cash to Master, spare parts or provisions until further notice ...."

"Food prices skyrocket in life under curfew":  "After nine days of demonstrations across Egypt’s cities, towns and villages, the life of the residents has transformed, at least in the short term.  Prices of food items such as fresh vegetables, fruit, bread, fish and meat have skyrocketed. Fishermen cannot go out to the seas due to petrol shortage and the high price of meat means regular people can no longer afford it.  People rushed to stock up on food items despite the hike in prices in areas where the curfew hours stretch from 3pm till 9am.  Bakeries have been forced to change their timings and now function from 9am to 3pm instead of starting in the early morning hours. The delayed start combined with the shortened hours has led to thousands of people queuing up outside the bakeries waiting for their turn to buy bread ....."

And if you don't think bread riots can be an issue.....

"The ongoing anti-government protests on the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities represent the biggest public demonstration in the country since the famous ‘bread riots’ which occurred exactly 34 years ago. The current riots, while more dedicated to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, are also partially incited by rising food prices.  On January 18-19 of 1977, hundreds of thousands of most poor Egyptians went to the streets to protest the termination of state subsidies of basic food items, as mandated by terms of an agreement with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. At least 800 people were killed in the two days of turmoil, which came to an end only after the army was sent in to restore order and the state cancelled the policy ...."

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The World from Berlin


'Mubarak's Henchmen Will Fiercely Defend the System'

02/03/2011
Spiegel ONLINE

LINK

Things took a nasty turn on Wednesday when government loyalists attacked anti-Mubarak protesters in Cairo. As the violence continued early Thursday, the army moved in to create a buffer zone. In Thursday's newspapers, German commentators discuss the crucial role of the military and the dilemmas facing the West.


The crisis in Egypt took a sharp turn for the worse Wednesday almost immediately after 82-year-old President Hosnai Mubarak rejected calls for him to give up power and leave the country. Violent clashes on Wednesday and Thursday between opponents and supporters of his rule have left at least five dead. Now all eyes are on the army to see if it will decide to back the regime or help hasten its demise.

Although the army has struggled to maintain a neutral stance since the protests began 10 days ago, most observers still believe it will ultimately decide the country's fate.

On Wednesday, soldiers stood back and watched as things turned very ugly with pro-regime supporters attacking anti-Mubarak demonstrators. While some threw rocks from rooftops, others charged the crowds on horses and camels.

The clashes continued into the early hours of Thursday, with automatic weapons fire pounding the anti-government protesters in the square. Egypt's health minister said on state-run Nile TV that the number of injuries at Tahrir Square had reached 836 -- including 200 within a single hour on Thursday morning.

Later Thursday, Al-Jazeera reported that army tanks had created a buffer zone between the two sides to protect the pro-democracy camp from the carloads of regime loyalists seen heading toward the square.

'A Fatal Error'

The opposition is claiming that the attackers were plainclothes policemen and thugs hired by the regime. The spike in violence came after the protestors refused to disperse following a speech by President Mubarak in which he promised to not seek re-election in September but refused to step down immediately. For those who have been challenging his 30-year rule over the past week that was apparently too little. Instead, they are demanding that he give up power immediately and that fresh elections be held as soon as possible.

The new government Mubarak installed last week has sought to distance itself from the recent violence. "This is a fatal error," Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq told the privately-owned al-Hayat television. "When investigations reveal who is behind this crime and who allowed it to happen, I promise they will be held accountable and will be punished for what they did."

"There is no excuse whatsoever to attack peaceful protesters, and that is why I am apologizing," he said, urging the protesters "to go home to help end this crisis."

Reacting to the clashes on Wednesday, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said: "If any of the violence is instigated by the government, it should stop immediately."

The anti-Mubarak movement has vowed to intensify protests in order to force Mubarak out and called for another big demonstration for Friday. While the army and the government are calling for the protestors to return home, leading opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Peace laureate and former head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, has demanded that the military "intervene immediately and decisively to stop this massacre."

The escalation in Egypt has drawn condemnation from British Prime Minister David Cameron. "If it turns out that the regime in any way has sponsored or tolerated this violence, that is completely unacceptable," he said Wednesday after meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in London. Ban added: "Any attack against the peaceful demonstrators is unacceptable, and I strongly condemn it."

In Thursday's newspapers, German commentators criticized the escalating violence and examined how events in Egypt have left the West in a conundrum.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Mubarak is inciting the political camps against each other and looks on as Egyptians attack Egyptians. The question of the autocrat's legitimacy will have been finally answered in the eyes of many citizens. In his speech to the people, the 82-year-old emphasized that he had devoted his life to the nation and that he wanted to step down in dignity. He has yet to answer the question of why he wants to ruin his country by staying in office for another six months. How are the Americans and Europeans supposed to continue working with their long-time partner in Cairo? And, in a country that lives from tourism, who is going to book a trip to the Red Sea or to see the pyramids after seeing these TV images from Wednesday?"

"Many people had placed their hopes in the army, which is now washing its hands of responsibility. Elite troops stood on the roof of the Egyptian Museum on Tahrir Square. They stood by and impassively watched the bloody riots just like the soldiers in the tanks scattered across the square. The officers' argue that they had warned the demonstrators to go home. But what they mean is that it's their own fault."

The center-right Die Welt writes:

"The fighting makes clear that the transition to a new era will be anything but smooth. And that the regime has not given up yet. What happened on Tahrir Square was not a popular uprising against a popular revolt. It was the latest phase of Hosnai Mubarak's fight for survival."

"Those on camels and horses who suddenly attacked the regime opponents were almost certainly not normal citizens who had spontaneously decided to launch a counter-demonstration. … It seems that many were members of the security forces. They were thugs mustered and paid by the regime to help foster the widespread impression that there is a civil war. Their aim is to discredit the regime's opponents -- and quite possibly also to persuade the hesitant army to take the regime's side."

"After Mubarak's offer not to contest the presidential elections in September, the military had made it clear that the demonstrations should end. The opposition doesn't want to accept that. They do not trust Mubarak to allow a transformation process. Someone who has lied to and cheated his people so often, and who recently so blatantly manipulated elections, has lost their trust for good."

"It remains to be seen if the violent clashes will slow down or speed up the end of the regime. It depends on what the military decides to do. It can opt for massive repression and install a military dictatorship. Or it can push Mubarak from power and become a guarantor of the transition."

The business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"The political powder keg of the Middle East is facing a very dangerous period of instability. Given these circumstances, it is all the more important to avoid chaos and anarchy. Nevertheless, that won't be so easy. The scenes of street fighting in Cairo show just how fiercely Mubarak's henchmen will defend the system."

"The West now has to energetically push for Mubarak to step down. The Europeans and Americans have done little in these days of fury to present themselves as partners in a time of need. They were not prepared for the transformation, backed the wrong forces and underestimated the rage of the people."

"Neither the US nor the EU has the power or means to have any far-reaching influence on the developments in these states. The transformation has to be carried out by the states themselves. However, the Europeans could back the democratic forces, help economic development through investment projects and enter into a closer political partnership with North Africa and the Middle East. In the process, Turkey could serve as a valuable mediator."

"The US has to work hard to prevent the peace process from being buried in the ruins of the old power structures, and active involvement on the part of Israel is essential. The Netanyahu government is stuck in a bunker mentality. It has obviously not understood that nothing will be as it was before in the Middle East."

"Neither peace nor democracy nor a civil society can be achieved overnight. But if the region is to be freed of dictators and not fall into the hands of anti-Western Islamists, the right signals have to be sent. The EU has an opportunity to do just that right now."

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"The lesson of the Iraq War shows that stability in the Middle East is something that should be highly valued. To endanger it frivolously could have terrible consequences."

"Western foreign policy is currently marked by conflicting goals. It is grappling with the issue of just much idealism and how much realism a responsible Middle East policy can bear. It's about democracy versus stability."

"To accuse the West of double standards in its dealings with Arab autocrats and to demand the guillotine for the despots and radical democracy for the people would be too short-sighted."

"At the moment, Washington, Jerusalem and Berlin are primarily concerned with the issue of Islamists, and correctly so. It's clear that Mubarak has to go. But, at the same time, the West must do everything it can to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from taking a leadership role in the freedom movement and then later taking power through free elections."

"The bloody street fights by Mubarak supporters show that regime change is long overdue .... The threat of anarchy is dangerous for the entire region. Yet just as dangerous is the prospect of allowing Egypt to stagger uncontrolled toward freedom after three decades of autocracy. The most radical solution -- immediate free elections -- is not the best one. The transition to a functioning democracy has to be mediated in a measured way."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"(Egypt) has played and still plays a key role in the efforts to prevent a region that is becoming more radicalized, that is riddled with seemingly unsolvable conflicts and that the world depends on for its oil from descending into chaos and war. The fact that Israel has stuck with Mubarak speaks volumes. The only democratic state in the Middle East is a stable despotism, which at least guarantees a 'cold peace,' something that is preferable to a state based on the people's rule, with a fate that is still uncertain. This uncertainty explains America's hesitation to drop Mubarak."

"Egypt will probably not end up being a theocracy like Iran; the countries and the times are too different. However, the examples of Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories do not exactly increase the hope that everything will turn out well once the old regime is set aside and the people are finally allowed to decide for themselves who will govern. Could that be the Muslim Brotherhood? The West will have next to no influence over this."

"No one can say with certainty what the Arab revolutions will achieve. There will certainly be few 'Westminster democracies.'"


The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung writes:

"With his speech on Wednesday, Mubarak ruined his chance of having a dignified exit and a return to a normal life. The scenes in central Cairo were the consequence -- Mubarak had let loose his supporters. …. The images of the escalation on Wednesday will remain associated with the president. The overwhelming majority of the opposition continued to demand late on Tuesday night that the president step down and have stuck to their calls for another big demonstration on Friday."

"And now, after days of peaceful protests, all signs point to confrontation. Once again, the question arises about the stance of the army, which called on the demonstrators to go home yesterday morning. It is possible they did so because they feared further escalation similar to the clashes in Alexandria on Tuesday evening. However, it is also possible that, after Mubarak's speech, military leaders now think enough is enough and are now backing the president."

--Siobhán Dowling

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Revolution Is Bad for Business


No Quick Fix for Arab Youth's Economic Woes

02/03/2011
By Ulrike Putz
Spiegel ONLINE

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The unrest in the Arab world is being fueled by massive economic problems, as young populations, who are facing a grim future, vent their frustration on the streets. But economists argue that the region's opposition movements may not be acting in the best interests of the youth.

The TV images were almost exactly the same: An old man in a tailored suit appears in front of the national flag and speaks words to the camera that are supposed to write history. In Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and on Wednesday Yemen, Arab leaders are being forced to appear humble in public. The pressure of the population and the fury of the young people, who are propelled into action by unemployment and a lack of prospects, was simply too much.

In Tunisia, the ruler fled into exile. In Jordan, the government was dismissed. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak has promised to hand over power to a successor, as has the Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who said he will stand down in 2013.

New leaders are supposed to bring freedom and prosperity -- that is what the people hope. But is there actually any prospect of an economic upswing in the region?

Experts are skeptical. "All the states in the Middle East have massive problems," says Ragui Assaad, an economist specializing in the region who teaches at the University of Minnesota. To overcome these problems will take decades, he says. "Every country has to make very painful decisions. It is doubtful if the opposition groups, who are now pushing for power, can do that." The intoxication of the revolution is bound to be followed by a period of sobriety.

'You Cannot Eat Free Elections'

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech, predicts that the young people who are currently rebelling will inevitably be disappointed. "The protesters believe that the freedom of expression they are fighting for now will improve their chances on the job market," he says. That, he argues, is a fallacy. "I am deeply worried that young Arabs will turn away from democracy as soon as they realize that you cannot eat free elections."

One possible consequence could be that populists and religious fanatics get an enormous boost in support. That is particularly likely when it comes to Yemen. "For Yemen, all help is coming too late. The state is on the verge of collapse," Assaad says. This is mostly due to the country's desperate economic situation. Yemen is faced with twin problems, the economist explains: On the one hand it has no natural resources, and hardly any water or agricultural land. On the other hand, its population is extremely poorly educated. "Pretty hopeless," is Assaad's bleak conclusion.

On the United Nations' Human Development Index (HDI), Yemen is ranked 138 in a list of 179 states. "Yemen can hardly be saved," says Salehi-Isfahani. "Yemen is so backward that it first needs to build roads, bridges and schools. One can only start thinking about economic reforms much later." This backwardness makes Yemen the ideal breeding ground for extremism. "The youth there has no future anyway. They are open to nihilist ways of thinking."

Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world, and the state has been on the brink of collapse for years. The formerly Socialist south is demanding secession, 20 years after unification. In the far north, Shiite militias are rebelling against the regime. Islamist fundamentalists have turned away from the government and are attacking the security forces. Marauding groups of al-Qaida fighters are a threat to stability.

Three Reasons for the Crisis

While Yemen's future is particularly bleak, the other countries in North Africa and the Middle East have at least a small chance of overcoming their crises. "The countries from Morocco to Iran have similar problems which can be tackled with similar methods," says Assaad. There are three main reasons for the economic crisis in the region:

High birth rates: Since the 1990s, the number of young people under 25 has grown disproportionately. Queen Rania of Jordan warned recently that the number of unemployed young people in the Middle East will rapidly increase from the current 15 million to 100 million by 2020. She called it a "ticking time bomb," saying it needs to be "defused" if unrest is to be prevented.

Education: The young people in the so-called middle-income countries are well educated, but not well enough. "Their qualifications are not good enough to compete on the international level," Salehi-Isfahani says.

Over-reliance on the state: In almost all of these countries, socialist-oriented regimes have for decades employed millions of people in the public sector. Young people now emerging from schools and universities had been led to believe that -- like their parents -- they would be taken care of by the state. However, countries like Syria, Egypt or Iraq can no longer afford this: Their planned economies have proved not to be profitable.

The young people in the Middle East are being doubly hit. On the one hand, they are shouldering the burdens of the wrong economic policies. On the other, they are also victims of a poor educational system. There has been a dumbing-down rather than the creation of elites. "The young people have done everything right, they have studied and tried hard. Nevertheless, they are far worse off than their parents. The disappointment is huge," says Salehi-Isfahani.

This is made worse by the "economically enforced celibacy" that men and women have to suffer. "Arab men without a permanent job have next to no chance of marrying and building a family," the economist says. That means that there is a lack of suitable grooms for women. As a result, young people see their hopes of personal fulfillment dashed.

What does all this mean for the West? Some experts are comparing the necessary dismantlement of the Arab economic structures with the new economic order in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. In order to ensure that this transformation succeeds, the US will have to quickly alter its foreign policy, Salehi-Isfahani suggests. "Washington has to understand that in the Middle East there are far bigger dangers than Hamas and the Iranian nuclear program." It is only with massive economic help from the US and Europe that the region can be stabilized, he says.

Opposition a Hindrance to Progress?

Yet even then it is still far from certain if the Arab states can hold their ground on the global market. Admittedly, countries like Tunisia and Egypt produce clothes, furniture and electrical goods, and countries like Jordan and Lebanon are even getting into high-tech. The problem, however, is the superior competition, says Salehi-Isfahani. "The Arab youth has to understand that they are competing with billions of Asians in these areas. And they are all prepared to work harder and for less money."

The only thing that could save the Middle East is a big dose of the market economy, says Assaad. Countries like Syria, Egypt and Tunisia subsidize gasoline and offer university places for free. That is wrong, says Assaad. "It is the middle class who drive cars and send their children to university. By subsidizing these areas, the state is distributing money to people who already have it."

The paradox is that the greatest barrier to progress could be the very opposition groups that are now pushing for change. "Many of them are not market-economy-orientated. They are dependent on religious or left-wing ideologies," says Assaad. Yet, in order to improve the living standard of their populations, these countries have to make an effort to attract investors. "I don't know how the leaders of the opposition can sell that to their base," he says.

Salehi-Isfahani is, therefore, hoping that the protests end soon. "There must be a return to calm, so that the factories and the stock exchanges can go back to work." It may sound very conservative, but insurgencies are bad for the economic climate, he says. "It is only when businesses are doing well that the lives of these young people will be improved."

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The End of Western Credibility


Will Democracy Become Islam's Best Friend?

02/03/2011
A Commentary by Jakob Augstein
Spiegel ONLINE

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Millions of people in the Middle East want freedom, just as Eastern Europeans once did. Twenty years ago, the West was a role model, but it betrays its own values. In doing so, it is also strengthening its enemy: militant Islamism.

"Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe -- because, in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty."


George Bush the Younger said that. And one can see: The West wasn't lacking nice words or intelligent insights. What was missing, though, were the right policies -- and, much worse, a belief in our own values.

There aren't many places in the world where Western moral double standards are as glaring as in the Middle East. In the ears of the 1.5 million Palestinians enclosed in the Gaza Strip, Western words like freedom and democracy must sound about as credible as Brezhnev's praise of freedom and socialism to the ears of an occupied Poland.

Indeed, the West's closest allies are the jailors of the Palestinian people. No other countries have received as much foreign aid from the United States as Israel and Egypt. Most of the money benefits the military -- but the US defense industry profits handsomely as well. The Egyptian air force F16 fighter jets now thundering over the heads of protesters on Cairo's Tahrir Square originate from the USA, as do the M60 tanks used by the Israelis to patrol Gaza.

Whether it is helping to maintain Israel's security, providing free passage through the Suez Canal or ensuring the containment of radical Islam, the Mubarak regime has certainly provided the West with valuable services over the years. And those are, of course, all legitimate interests. The problem is that the West and Israel have used illegitimate means to pursue them. Support for a regime that will soon have ruled for 30 years under emergency laws, defrauding one election after another without even blinking, one that relied on a police force notorious for torture and persecution, was illegitimate.

As Bush correctly stated, "(I)n the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty."

Indeed, the era of peace which can be bought is over. In the developments in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, we could in fact be seeing the awakening of a new era in the Arab world. Perhaps the Arab world is now casting off the yoke of Western-back autocracies just as Eastern Europe rid themselves of Soviet rule 20 years ago. This time, however, the West isn't on the side of the heralds of freedom -- instead they are the allies of the oppressors. It wasn't even a year ago that the German foreign minister praised Mubarak's regime for its "many years of political continuity" and called it an "anchor of stability in the region."

How will the West heal this wound of destroyed credibility? It is certainly not going to happen today. The winds of change turned into a storm some time ago, but not even that has been enough to drive the center of power in Washington to muster clear words on the situation. The US Secretary of State murmured something about an "orderly transition," but the man the world is looking to is keeping silent. US President Barack Obama, it would seem, can think of nothing to say about the urge for freedom of millions of young men in the Maghreb region who are being held hostage by history and the web of Western imperial interests.

A few weeks ago, youth in the Gaza Strip penned perhaps the most poignant rebuke of Western Middle East policies, regardless whether they are formulated in Washington, Paris, London or Berlin. "We want to be free. We want to be able to lead normal lives. We want peace. Are we asking for too much?"


But these youth can't even turn to the West for an answer to their question. It has already shrugged off responsibility.

The risky consequences of this failure are obvious. Militant Islam's greatest ally has always been the West's hypocrisy. Again and again, the West has denied its own values in the Middle East, giving autocracy precedence over democracy. But sometimes people can be strongly influenced by the very things they are fighting against. Autocracy in the Arab regimes is meant to be a bulwark against Islamism?

Now democracy is threatening to become an ally of Islamism. After all, Hamas emerged triumphant in free elections in the Gaza Strip in 2006. The Muslim Brotherhood has now pledged to support a secular Egypt, but how long will that promise hold if the Islamist group comes to power?

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Middle East

Can Tunisia or Egypt find role model in Turkey?

By Scott Peterson, Staff Writer / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


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Istanbul, Turkey

Turkey has raised its voice for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step aside, as it tries to burnish its credentials as the region’s “model” democratic, modern, and Islam-leaning state.

After days of official silence as violence first began raging across Egypt – and a chorus of complaints in the Turkish media that the ruling party’s ambitions of regional leadership were proving shallow – Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pulled out the stops.

Mr. Mubarak’s promise not to seek another term in elections was not enough.

“People expect Mubarak to take a much different step,” Mr. Erdogan said on Wednesday, during a visit to Kyrgyzstan. “This is the expectation of the people…. The current administration [of Mubarak] fails to give confidence for beginning an atmosphere of democracy within a short period of time.”

Turkey has increasingly flexed its regional diplomatic muscle under the leadership of Erdogan’s Islam-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP). Some have referred to Turkey’s robust foreign policy as “neo-Ottomanism.”

Though Turkey has witnessed four military coups since 1960 – the latest, in 1997, pushed from power the overtly Islamist Welfare Party, the precursor to the more moderate AKP – Turkey’s democratic development is seen as a worthy example by some activists from Tunis to Cairo.

As an economic powerhouse with a determined tradition of secular rule since the 1920s that has also found democratic space for a moderate Islamic leadership, Turkey has pushed its appeal on several levels.

“The transformation of Turkey’s political Islam is something which has set itself as a model for the Arab street,” says Cengiz Aktar, a professor at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul.

“The Arab street thinks that if it can happen in Turkey, it may also happen in their countries,” says Mr. Aktar. “This being said … comparing [Turkey’s transformation] – especially in Egypt – we should not be naive. That will take much more time, for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political movements in Arab countries to become another AKP. It’s a long process, but we are on the right track.”

The benefits of the Turkey model
While tens of thousands of protesters in Egypt have rallied to topple Mubarak after 30 years of rule, Egyptian intellectuals have commented on the benefits of Turkey’s model.

The chain of events started in Tunisia, where President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was overthrown by people power in mid-January after 23 years of leadership – the first Arab leader in the modern era to be forced from power in such a way.

Similar protests have erupted from Sudan and Jordan to Yemen, all calling for more accountable and democratic government. In Tunisia, which has a strong and educated middle class, Islamist leader Rachid Ghannouchi returned home after 22 years in exile earlier this week, comparing his banned Ennahda (Awakening) movement to the AKP, and rejecting unflattering comparisons to the leader of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Poll: Turkey has strong blend of Islam and democracy

On Wednesday, a poll of seven Arab nations and Iran published by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) think tank found that 66 percent of 2,267 respondents said Turkey represented a “successful blend of Islam and democracy.”

In the past three years Turkey has mediated – not always successfully – between Syria and Israel, with Brazil on Iran’s nuclear program, in the Balkans, and recently with Qatar on Lebanon’s political deadlock, to name a few regional initiatives.

The TESEV poll found that Turkey’s “Muslim background” was the most-cited reason for its “model” status, followed by its economy, its democratic government, and that it is seen to “stand up for Palestinians and Muslims."

“Until recently, prevailing opinion in Turkey was that Arabs did not like the Turks,” said the report, according to a description of the Turkish-language document in the Hurriyet Daily News. “However, this research challenges this belief; there is now growing sympathy for Turkey and Turks in the Arab world.”

Some 78 percent of respondents said that Turkey should play a bigger role in the region; positive regional opinion has risen from 75 percent to 85 percent about Turkey, which has taken a tough line against Israel over its raid last May on the Gaza-bound "Freedom Flotilla," which killed nine activists from Turkey, one a dual US citizen.

Erdogan set the tone on Egypt earlier this week. He said the AKP “came to power declaring: ‘Enough, the final say and decision belongs to the people.’” He said the AKP “always opposed … oppression,” and stated: “Governments, which close their eyes, their ears and their mind to the people, cannot survive long.”

Erdogan offered a “very sincere warning” for Mubarak, noting that “We are human, we are mortal.… We will all die and be called to account for what we left behind." The Turkish leader added: “In today’s world. Freedoms cannot be postponed or ignored.”

Before those remarks, the Turkish media criticized Erdogan for his silence.

“Ankara has always played for stability in the region and this has also meant supporting dictators,” wrote columnist Semih Idiz in the Hurriyet Daily News. “The dilemma for Foreign Minister [Ahmet] Davutoglu is that his vision of an influential Turkey in the Middle East is really contingent on the present status quo in the region.”

But that hasn’t prevented Turkish officials from stating their case, as the pro-democracy confrontation in Egypt enters its 10th day.

“This regional role of Turkey is very much self-attributed, it’s self-declared, [and] they are also learning about their role in the region,” says Aktar. “So I am not very surprised about the lack of enthusiasm [toward the Egyptian protests] in the beginning. [The AKP] have achieved something extremely important, politically speaking, but they are over-cautious sometimes. In a word: Better late than never.”

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Middle East

What Egypt's unrest could mean for Hamas

By Joshua Mitnick, Correspondent / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


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Both Israel and Palestinian Authority officials fear the empowerment of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt might prompt Cairo to ease access to Gaza, and help Hamas consolidate its rule there.

Ashkelon, Israel

As Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's grip on power slipped this week, Israelis and Palestinians are sizing up what a change in government in Cairo may mean for the Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority officials fear the empowerment of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt might prompt Cairo to ease access to Gaza, and help Hamas consolidate its rule there.

Egypt has the keys to Gaza's only border not controlled by Israel. That leaves President Mubarak's successor, whoever it may be, with the option to open up the stifled territory of 1.5 million to trade and civilian traffic, or to continue the restrictions that weigh on the economy and the Islamic militant government there.

“The current Egyptian regime has a strong interest in preventing the Hamas-controlled regime from moving into Egypt,” says Professor Steinberg. “There is an Israeli concern that a different government – an Islamic based government – would allow much more freedom of movement and terrorists across the border.”

To get around the restrictions, a network of Hamas-controlled subterranean tunnels has developed under the border to funnel weapons and fill demand for consumer goods and essentials such as fuel. Spokespeople already say that Gaza is feeling the pinch of a gas shortage, because supplies through the Sinai have been frozen.

A new Egyptian government would also have to decide on whether to continue enforcing policy battling the smugglers. In the first days of the Cairo protests, there were reports of stepped up smuggling at the border, reflecting Israel's concerns.

Hamas, trying to avoid looking as if they are exploiting the chaos, denied the reports. While Gaza has come to depend on commercial goods from the tunnels, recent smuggling has also helped Hamas rearm with rockets after fighting a three-and-a-half week war with Israel two years ago.

Hamas wants commercial crossing

Currently only pedestrians are permitted to cross the border, but Hamas says it hopes that Egypt will eventually agree to establish a commercial crossing.

“We are hoping to have a direct contact with the world through commerce with Egypt,'' says Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar. “Everybody is looking for that because their goods are so much cheaper.”

But Mr. Zahar might have to wait. In the past, Egypt has resisted calls from Israel to establish commercial trade links with Gaza for fear of becoming responsible for providing basic goods for the impoverished territory. Currently, the international community calls Israel to task for the humanitarian situation in Gaza

Over the weekend, Hamas deployed forces along the border, amid reports that Egyptian police stations in Sinai were being overrun by members of the Bedouin ethnic group. That has Egypt recalling a 2008 border crisis, when frustrated Palestinians breached the Egyptian border compound at Rafa.

The difference now is that Hamas wants to prove it is responsible enough to avoid stirring a border crisis.

“We want the border to be safe,” says Zahar.

But in the southern Israeli town of Ashkelon, there is already fear that a loosened situation at the border with Egypt will end up allowing in weapons to be targeted at Israel.

“Even though relations are pretty good,” says Osher Amar, a truck driver. “I think we should be a afraid.''

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Egypt protests: Five world leaders jump into the fray

 

[George Wallace]

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Middle East

After Egypt's protests, Jordan's king faces more assertive public

By Nicholas Seeley, Correspondent / February 2, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


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Despite skepticism in Jordan about King Abdullah's appointment Tuesday of a new prime minister, there were no major protests. But a small rally at a government building Wednesday spoke to a fresh willingness to push publicly for reforms.

Amman, Jordan

One day after Jordan's King Abdullah dismissed his cabinet and appointed a new prime minister to oversee political and economic reform, a few dozen protesters at a traffic circle near Amman's prime ministry building chanted “no Bakhit, no Samir,” in reference to the outgoing as well as the incoming leaders. The red flags of the leftist Popular Unity Party flew side-by-side with green Muslim Brotherhood flags.

We came here to make a message to our government, to the decisionmakers in Jordan, that we don't need changes in faces; we need changes in policies,” said Ghaith al-Qudah, who was organizing for the Brotherhood's Youth Committee.

Despite public skepticism about the new government, there were no large, organized protests like those that have shaken the capital on the past three Fridays. But the small gathering spoke to the fresh willingness of Jordanians to go public with their discontent – and how the recent revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia have changed the game for a generation.

“I think that there is now a new understanding inside the political kitchen that we have a new public mood in the region,” says Mohammad Aburumman, a political columnist for the Jordanian daily Al Ghad. “We have a new Arabic street … they need justice, political reform, democracy, human rights. … Political reform became a necessity in Jordan.”

King Abdullah appointed Prime Minister Maarouf al-Bakhit on Tuesday, after accepting the resignation of the previous cabinet of ministers. The first response to the appointment was doubt that Mr. Bakhit, a conservative with a long history in the military and security services, was really put in place to implement reform. Some held out hope that Bakhit's conservative credentials might actually make him a capable figure to head a reform government. Others said the change in prime ministers was a purely cosmetic move, in a country where political appointees change frequently but policies seldom do.

People here are afraid that this [new government] is to contain the street, not to make a real change,” says Mr. Aburumman. He expects that by next week, Bakhit's ministerial appointments and his public statements will make clear how serious his government is about reform is. “We hope the new prime minister understands that he doesn't have a long time – he has a short time to give a very strong message towards democracy.”

The protesters outside the prime ministry were very critical of Bakhit, but no one interviewed actually called for his resignation.

“No, no, no: we are not asking names,” said engineer Khaled Ramadan. “We are asking [to change] the mode, how the prime minister [is] appointed. Not: we are with Maarouf or against Maarouf; we are asking [for] a new system.”

Is the political will there?

It's impossible to guess what kind of immediate reforms will be necessary to keep protest in check, and whether the new government will have the political will or ability to implement them.

One demand was clear: a new elections law that would create a more representative National Assembly. Jordan's current laws restrict the activity of political parties and aggressively gerrymander electoral districts, ensuring that the Assembly is dominated by east-bank Jordanians, who are typically elected based on tribal loyalties rather than policies. The resulting parliaments are widely seen as unrepresentative, ineffective, and corrupt.

Aburumman said he hoped not only for an elections law, but for a system in which the cabinet would be chosen by the largest bloc in the assembly, rather than by the king – though most agree the king is unlikely to give up that control.

Muslim Brotherhood view

Abdellatif Arabiat, head of the Shura Council of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, said his organization would probably be content if there were a more democratically elected National Assembly, and it were given more say in the running of the country, as opposed to the current system, where almost all decisions are made by the cabinet.

The protesters near the prime ministry made numerous other demands, including a review of the restrictive laws governing public gatherings, the creation of a “supply ministry” to control commodity prices, and more democratic management of public universities.

“We are planning to make these protests week after week, or month after month, until we believe the government can reach to a level to make change which we want,” said Mr. Qudah.

Popular anger is unpredictable, but it seems likely that the biggest player in determining whether protesters return to the streets will be the Brotherhood. So far, Aburumman said, the Brotherhood has participated in protests without taking a leading role.

“They still tried to open something there with the regime, trying to give a positive indicator that they don't want to change the regime, but they want to participate in improving the regime, in improving the political life,” he said. “That is the new strategy of the Brotherhood. But I think if they find doors closed, they will go to the street again and they will change their tools to be a more aggressive, strong opposition.”

Mr. Arabiat, however, says his group is taking its cue from Jordanians.

“It is up to the people,” he says. “If they approve the main [government] line for reform, I think [protests] will decrease, but if not, they will increase.”

Arabiat says the Brotherhood would push for a serious reform program, but that it was also committed to working with other opposition groups.

“We are reformists in an evolutionary process, not revolutionary; working according to the Constitution; working with the whole people. … We are working for a real democracy,” he says. “We are doing the will of the people. The people will be with us if we work with them and toward their own objectives.”

More on LINK

 

[The Bread Guy]

- edited to add lead item -

"Egyptian army 'will fire on pro-Mubarak protesters'":  "The Egyptian Army has moved "decisively on the side of the [anti-government] protesters" according to a retired general in Cairo.  Correspondent Jon Leyne spoke to the retired general who is in close contact with the tank crews policing the protests in Tarhir Square.  He was told that the Egyptian army was now willing to open fire on violent pro-government protesters and predicted that President Mubarak would be out of power by tomorrow.  US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns told John Humphrys that the "massive US aid programme" that supports the Egyptian military would be used as a tool to persuade President Mubarak to listen.  "The military is going to be the institution that defines this crisis," he said.  "I continue to believe that President Mubarak's days as leader are probably numbered". "

From an International Crisis Group** statement:  ".... There is no greater priority than ending the violence and preventing a slide into greater chaos. On Wednesday 2 February, according to Crisis Group and other eye-witnesses, a significant number of regime loyalists took to the streets and in some cases engaged in organized attacks against what had been peaceful protests. They were spoiling for a fight and they provoked one. The military stood by. It is perhaps the last public institution with broad national legitimacy and is likely to play a crucial role in ensuring a stable transition. Neither it nor Egypt can afford the military’s legitimacy to be tarnished. Egypt’s leadership should issue orders to all security forces, including the military, to act in a manner consistent with their responsibility to safeguard public order while protecting citizens’ legitimate rights to peaceful protest ...."

"Mubarak wants to step down but fears chaos":  "Embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak says he wants to step down but fears chaos if he does.  "I am fed up. After 62 years in public service, I have had enough. I want to go," Mubarak said in a 20-minute interview with ABC's Christiane Amanpour Thursday at the presidential palace in Cairo.  In a phone conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama earlier this week, Mubarak said, "I told Obama, 'You don’t understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now?'”  At the centre of deadly anti-government protests that are in their 10th day are demands that Mubarak resign immediately.  Mubarak had said on Monday night in a speech to the nation that he won't step down before elections in September.  Meanwhile, Monir Abdel Nour, secretary general of the Wafd opposition party in Egypt, is calling Mubarak a "dead man walking." ...."

"US presses Egypt on violence, warns on Friday protest":  "Egypt could see larger protests and serious confrontation on Friday, the State Department said as U.S. diplomats pressed Egypt's government to help stop a wave of violence against journalists.  "I don't think these are random events," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told a news briefing on Thursday after journalists reportedly came under attack as they sought to cover protests against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.  "It could well be this is in anticipation of events tomorrow ... we are bracing for a significant increase in the number of demonstrators on the streets and with that, given yesterday's events, the real prospects of a confrontation."  Crowley said the United States wanted to see the Egyptian government and opposition groups start serious negotiations immediately . Washington believes elements close to the government or Mubarak's ruling party were responsible for Wednesday's widespread violence against protesters, he said.  "I don't know that we have a sense of how far up the chain it went," Crowley said ...."

"Egyptian VP promises reform, blames protest on TV":  "On Thursday, Egyptian Vice-President Omar Suleiman laid out a detailed timetable to reform his country's constitution and hold presidential elections, even as he blamed the television channels "of certain foreign nations" for igniting the 10-day long protest.  The Egyptian military detained dozens of international journalists here Thursday. The military and security staff at hotels seized reporters' equipment. Supporters of embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak attacked foreign journalists and prevented them from either leaving their hotels or travelling through this city of 20 million people.  Two Canadian journalists from the Globe and Mail were among those detained by the army, but released after three hours.  Pro-Mubarak supporters blamed the international media, particularly Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, for presenting a biased view of the so-called "January 25th" protest.  Al Jazeera said three of its journalists had been one detained and, at 7 p.m., it did not know the whereabouts of another ...."

** - International Crisis Group is "an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict."  Much of its funding comes from governments, including Canada's (CIDA and IDRC).

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Sympatico  News

Foreign journalists attacked in Egypt

03/02/2011 2:57:13 PM
CBC News


LINK

Many foreign journalists covering the protests in Cairo were rounded up by the military and had their equipment confiscated Thursday - possibly for their own protection - after some were attacked in the clashes between anti- and pro-government protesters.

Tensions were running high on the streets of the capital city on the 10th day of the political crisis.

Foreign journalists from several outlets reported a string of attacks on them near Tahrir Square, the scene of battles between supporters of embattled President Hosni Mubarak and protesters demanding he step down immediately after nearly 30 years in power.

CBC News has a team of reporters on the ground in Cairo. They include David Common, who described the situation via Skype on Thursday morning.

"One of the reasons that I am speaking to you by Skype is that it's simply not safe for us to go out above this square. People are pointing us out and this comes on a day when it appears foreign journalists are being targeted," Common said in an interview from his hotel room.

In the square, gunfire could still be heard and Molotov cocktails were thrown late into the night Wednesday and in the early morning Thursday, sparking huge fires, he said.

Violent confrontations between the two sets of protesters continue, he added.

"We saw people being pulled out of vehicles, punched relentlessly. We saw what may have been a man killed, saw someone who was hit by a Molotov cocktail and catch on fire."

Radio-Canada reporter Jean-François Lépine and cameraman Sylvain Castonguay were roughed up by pro-government supporters near Cairo's airport Wednesday. Castonguay was badly beaten, and the attack only ended after soldiers intervened.

Globe and Mail reporter Sonia Verma said she and her colleague Patrick Martin were "taken into some sort of custody" Thursday morning after their passports were seized at a military checkpoint.

They were freed three hours later, Verma said on Twitter.

Reporters from across the globe attacked

Several reporters and photographers from other news outlets also reported being roughed up.

Among them:

- Al-Jazeera said two correspondents had been attacked by "thugs."

- ABC News international correspondent Christiane Amanpour said that on Wednesday, her car was surrounded by men banging on the sides and windows, and a rock was thrown through the windshield, shattering glass on the occupants. They escaped without injury.

- CNN's Anderson Cooper said he, a producer and camera operator were set upon by people who began punching them and trying to break their camera. Another CNN reporter, Hala Gorani, said she was shoved against a fence when demonstrators rode in on horses and camels, and feared she was going to get trampled.

- There were reported assaults Wednesday on journalists for the BBC, Danish TV2 News and Swiss television. Two Associated Press correspondents were also roughed up.

- CBS newsman Mark Strassman said he and a camera operator were attacked as they attempted to get close to the rock-throwing and take pictures. The camera operator, whom he would not name, was punched repeatedly and hit in the face with Mace.

The attacks appeared to reflect a pro-government view that many media outlets are sympathetic to protesters who want Mubarak to quit now rather than complete his term.

"There is a concerted campaign to intimidate international journalists in Cairo and interfere with their reporting. We condemn such actions," PJ Crowley, spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said on Twitter.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs offered a strong denunciation of reports of "systematic targeting" of journalists in Egypt, saying those actions are "totally unacceptable."

"Any journalist that has been detained should be released immediately," Gibbs said. "I think we need to be clear that the world is watching the actions that are taking place right now in Egypt."

In Ottawa, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said Thursday the government is gravely concerned about the intimidation of Canadian journalists in Cairo and he is calling in Egypt's ambassador to Canada to protest their treatment.

"I have [also] asked our ambassador in Cairo to follow up on my call to the foreign minister and ensure that Canadians, particularly Canadian journalists, are guaranteed safety."

The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Wednesday that violence against journalists was part of a series of deliberate attacks, and urged the Egyptian military to provide protection for reporters.

On Wednesday, Egyptian government spokesman Magdy Rady said the assertion of state involvement in street clashes and attacks on reporters was "fiction" and that the government welcomed objective coverage.

On Thursday, Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq acknowledged that the attack on anti-government protesters "seemed to have been organized." He promised an investigation into who was behind it.

With files from The Associated Press

Video on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Sympatico  News

Canadian journalists rounded up in Cairo chaos


Thursday, February 3, 2011 | 5:21 PM
CTV News


LINK

Canadian reporters were among the foreign parties rounded up by the Egyptian army Thursday, amid deteriorating conditions on the streets of Cairo where anti-government protesters continue to clash violently with supporters of President Hosni Mubarak.

Two reporters from Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper were taken into custody by security forces and released several hours later.

Sonia Verma and her colleague, Patrick Martin, were taken into custody after soldiers "commandeered" their car at a checkpoint.

"Our car was literally surrounded by about 10 or 12 men," she told CTV News Channel from Cairo. "They demanded our passports . . . and they got a little bit aggressive, so we passed them over . . . and they asked us point blank if we were journalists and we had to say ‘yes', and at that point a man got into the passenger's seat holding our passports and ordered our driver to drive."

Verma said she didn't know what else to do, so she began tweeting on her BlackBerry about the turn of events.

"I knew my husband and my editors would be reading this stream coming out and would know what was happening," she said.

Verma said they were taken to a cordoned-off section of a road, where they were ordered to sit on the curb with about 20 other foreigners, mostly journalists, while their bags were searched and their phones, confiscated.

Verma said the men that took them into custody included military, police and at least one official from the Ministry of the Interior.

Verma said they were not harmed and after three hours were given back their passports and phones.

"The guy actually shook my hand and said he was sorry," Verma said.

The move to pull reporters off the streets came after a string of attacks on foreign journalists on Thursday.

Among the reported attacks was an incident in which a Greek print journalist was stabbed in the leg with a screwdriver and another in which a photographer was punched in the face and had his camera smashed by a group of men. Al-Jazeera reported that two of its staff reporters had been attacked by "thugs." A Reuters television crew was also reportedly beaten up, and a reporter with Turkish state television was robbed and lost a tooth in a beating.

Human rights organizations also said their staff has been attacked and arrested in Cairo.

Oxfam said that two offices of organizations it supports were raided Thursday.

"We are extremely worried about the fate of these human rights defenders who have been providing critical legal aid and support to their people over the past days of protest," Catherine Essoyan, Oxfam Regional Manager for the Middle East, said in a statement.

Prof. Rachad Antonius of the University du Quebec a Montreal, worries the roundup of journalists and human right watchers could be the beginning of severe action by the government.

"The attempt to push out all the reporters and human rights activists, I interpret that as a way of making sure their will be no witnesses to what will happen," he told CTV News Channel.

Canada defends journalists

Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon strongly condemned the actions taken by Egyptian security forces against journalists.

"Canada continues to urge Egypt to improve respect for human rights, in particular freedom of expression and freedom of association, and this includes the rights of journalists," Cannon said in the foyer of the House of Commons Thursday.

"If the government was in any way involved in instigating attacks on peaceful demonstrators this would be unacceptable," he added.

The Washington Post reported that its Cairo bureau chief and a photographer had been detained by Egyptian authorities.

"We understand that they are safe but in custody and we have made urgent protests to Egyptian authorities in Cairo and Washington," Washington Post Foreign Editor Douglas Jehl said Thursday.

CTV's Lisa LaFlamme reported it appeared the Egyptian army was trying to keep the journalists safe amid the chaos.

LaFlamme said a Toronto Star reporter had been escorted back to her hotel by the military, which is recognizing that Western journalists are being targeted by rioters.

The situation has become so dangerous that staff in hotels surrounding Cairo's Tahrir Square have confiscated the cameras of journalists -- including the equipment used by LaFlamme and her crew -- to prevent their businesses from becoming targeted as well.

The U.S. State Department condemned the "concerted campaign to intimidate" foreign journalists in Egypt.

Reuters reported that White House spokesperson Robert Gibbs told reporters Thursday that journalists should not be targeted and any taken into custody should be freed.

Video on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Europe

Europe ups pressure on Mubarak, calling for immediate transition in Egypt

By Andrés Cala, Correspondent / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

In their strongest language to date, European leaders today demanded that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak begin a democratic transition and ensure the protection of journalists and protesters.

Madrid

The leaders of Europe’s big five – Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and Spain – demanded Thursday that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak begin a democratic transition “immediately” and condemned violence against media as “unacceptable.”

It was the strongest language used by Europe to date, though still insufficient by some standards.

“It’s not a question of gradually increasing pressure on him. He’s the obstacle," says José Ignacio Torreblanca, senior policy fellow in the European Council on Foreign Relations. "The source of instability is Mubarak. Millions of Europeans came to that conclusion in two hours watching the scenes of violence, but EU leaders haven't after weeks."

The statement comes several days after three of those nations – Britain, France, and Germany – issued an initial, less forceful statement saying they "recognize the moderating role President Mubarak has played" and urging "him to show the same moderation in addressing the current situation in Egypt.”

Today's statement went a step further, underscoring the growing pressure that European leaders are under to react more decisively against violence that has already targeted several European journalists. Yet it also revealed the continued absence of a united response from the entire European Union.

Leaders calls for 'quick and orderly transition'

“We are watching with utmost concern the deteriorating situation in Egypt,” said today's statement (read here), signed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister David Cameron, President Silvio Berlusconi, and Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. “Only a quick and orderly transition to a broad-based Government will make it possible to overcome the challenges Egypt is now facing.”

Ms. Merkel and Mr. Zapatero went further in Madrid during a press conference, stopping just short of asking Mubarak to resign.

“I spoke with the Egyptian president and asked him to start this dialogue. Nobody can think that things will remain the same," Merkel said through a translator.

Zapatero added: “We want democracy in Egypt, and when that aspiration is demanded with severity by the majority of the population, it becomes urgent. Any further consideration could be interpreted as interfering,” he concluded

Europe's backyard

But that fear of interfering is precisely what many in Europe are criticizing.

“We have been interfering for 30 years by supporting someone,” says Mr. Torreblanca of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s Mubarak who made the qualitative change and broke the contract by releasing his dogs that are now attacking European journalists.”

Demonstrations in support of democratic reforms in the Middle East have taken place throughout European capitals. Columnists and editorials are also increasingly asking their government for a stronger stance. Among the dozens of harassed journalists were several European nationals, including a Greek who was stabbed in the leg and at least three Spaniards who were attacked.

The United States and Europe share concern over broader regional instability that the protests in Egypt are triggering and the geopolitical realignment that could follow. But Europe has an additionally direct impact from instability in Northern African countries which supply gas to Europe, including Egypt.

Europe is also home to millions of North African and Middle Eastern immigrants and their descendents.

“What Mexico is to the US when things go bad, the Mediterranean is to Europe,” says Torreblanca. “For the EU the risks are more economic and societal.”

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

Egypt's VP uses state TV to blame unrest on 'foreign agendas'

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

Egypt's new Vice President Omar Suleiman took to state TV Thursday night to make a play for Mubarak to hang on until presidential elections in September.

Cairo

Omar Suleiman, looking like a president in waiting, took to Egyptian state television tonight with dark hints of conspiracies behind the democracy protests, a dismissal of demands for immediate political reform, and words of loyalty and respect for President Hosni Mubarak.

Mr. Suleiman – Egypt’s long-standing foreign intelligence chief until this past week, when he was named Egypt’s first vice president since Mr. Mubarak took power in 1981 – made a play for Mubarak to hang on until presidential elections in September, which the 82-year-old leader has promised not to run in.

"Standing down is an alien philosophy for the Egyptian people... Egyptians aren’t the ones asking for this. We [Egyptians] respect Hosni Mubarak, our father," he said in an interview with government TV. “We can talk about complete constitutional reform when a new president comes on the scene. We have no time to discuss it now."

But Egypt’s current electoral laws and Constitution are rigged against outsiders and strongly favor the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

Suleiman himself is among the few Egyptians who fulfill the current candidacy criteria. (Among other things, a candidate must belong to a legal party that won at least 3 percent of parliamentary seats in the last election. The fraudulent parliamentary election last November gave the NDP about 95 percent of the seats and the Muslim Brotherhood – Egypt's most organized opposition movement – remains banned.)

Suleiman alluded to the chance that the requirements could be eased and some reforms could happen before an election, but stressed that Egypt “has to put restrictions on who can run for president.”

Protesters reject Suleiman's comments

Egypt’s democracy protesters, many defying a curfew in Tahrir Square in central Cairo tonight, immediately dismissed his comments, particularly his claim that their demands have been met and his call to “end your sit-in."

“When he said that a president stepping down is alien to us, people in Tahrir were almost fainting,” says Khaled Abol Naga, an Egyptian film star who’s spent most of the past few days with demonstrators at Tahrir calling for Mubarak’s downfall.

“People were enraged by these stupid claims in the year 2011. [The regime] thinks the people are a bunch of animals. These are a bunch of educated Egyptians, not the Muslim Brotherhood, not other parties. It’s people from all walks of life and they’re determined that Mubarak go,” he says.

Blaming 'foreign agendas' for unrest

Suleiman also sought to bolster a narrative that’s been spun out by new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq and other officials in the past day: That unidentified “outsiders” created the violence that claimed at least 10 lives around Tahrir Square on Wednesday evening and early Thursday. Suleiman said that “many of the protesters in Tahrir Square have foreign agendas.”

That reference to “foreign agendas” appeared to be an attempt to label Egypt’s democracy protesters as working for US or Israel, a favorite dissent-stifling tactic of regimes from Tunisia to Syria. Mubarak has maintained good relations with Israel during his reign and the US has arguably been his most important international backer, at least until the events of the past two weeks.

Saad Eddin Ibrahim, an Egyptian democracy activist and academic, was hounded as a foreign agent and jailed for three years over a decade ago. His crime? “Daring to criticize the Mubarak family’s increasingly dynastic ambitions,” as Middle East historian Juan Cole put it this week.

Cairo’s protesters found themselves being painted with the same brush by Suleiman tonight.

“Actually, there is a plot if you read between the lines in Suleiman’s statements and on state TV,” says Mr. Naga, the film star. “They’re stating that there are infiltrators, foreigners involved, to confuse the people, so if the US does come out in support of us they can point and say: ‘See, it was a US plot, it was the CIA.’ ”

Naga says if that was Suleiman’s intent, then it didn’t work. “People don’t trust [the regime] anymore, and they know they will be brutally jailed and killed if they give up now before real change has happened.”

Tomorrow, protesters have vowed their biggest demonstrations yet.

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Monitor's View


America's best agents in Cairo: US-trained Egyptian officers

By the Monitor's Editorial Board / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

Pentagon training of foreign military officers in the US may be the best investment in democracy. Thousands of Egyptian officers have been exposed to US democratic values, Will those officers now stick with Mubarak?

America’s best hope for democracy in Egypt and the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak may not be the protesters in the streets. It could be mid-level officers in Egypt’s Army.

Thousands of them have received official training and education in the United States, where they were exposed to the values of a democratic society, such as human rights and civilian rule over the military.

As events unfold in Cairo, the Army may yet turn the tide. Much depends on how the rank and file see their role. The Army has already stated it will not shoot the pro-democracy protesters. It even describes their demands as “legitimate.”

And yet soldiers stood by this week when pro-Mubarak groups attacked the demonstrators in Cairo.

Many eyes are on Lt. Gen. Sami Anan, the Egyptian Army’s chief of staff, to see if he now feels pressure from the officer ranks or common soldiers to turn against Mr. Mubarak.

While he received training in Russia and France, he has had regular contact with the Pentagon. Egypt and the US have had close military ties since the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty – but especially because the US provides $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, or about a third of its military budget. In addition, hundreds of Pentagon officials operate in the country.

But Egypt is one of many friendly but authoritarian-run countries that sends officers to the US for various types of education, usually at institutions such as the Army War College or the National Defense University. The officers come under a little-known program called International Military Education and Training (IMET).

Their informal contacts with Americans, it is hoped, will instill democratic values that might be useful later during a confrontation in their home country.

That was the case, for example, in the Philippines in 1986, when American-educated officers helped civilians oust a dictator there. Yet during pro-democracy uprisings in Burma, the US had few officers in that country’s military who had been trained in the US or who had the clout to push for democracy.

IMET’s record is quite mixed on its ability to spread democracy through foreign armies. In Egypt’s case, all that Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said of its Army in recent days is that it showed “professionalism.”

Little is known of the Pentagon’s efforts to reach US-trained Egyptian officers and advise them to show restraint in dealing with the protests. Mubarak, a former Air Force commander, may fear the Army. He reportedly has tried to hold down the number of officers trained in the US. And after the protests began last month, he quickly filled government posts with former military officers in hopes of retaining military loyalty.

The Egyptian armed forces has a strong desire to keep good relations with the US and Israel, and perhaps to prevent Islamic militants from gaining power. It seems committed to constitutional government, and probably opposed the apparent ambition of Mubarak to groom his son for succession.

In coming days, the Army may be forced into a difficult choice: Support Mubarak, or the hundreds of thousands of civilians defying him in the streets.

Let’s hope the officers who have seen how a real democracy can work will pick the right side.

More on LINK

 

[57Chevy]

Tens of thousands stage rival rallies in Yemen

SANAA, Yemen — Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his supporters sought to upstage a "day of rage" against his rule Thursday by holding a large simultaneous counterdemonstration across town.

The two rallies drew tens of thousands and unfolded largely peacefully, but highlighted the political unrest sparked by the overthrow of longtime Tunisian ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali last month and the ongoing popular uprising against the 30-year reign of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.

The Tunisian and Egyptian upheavals have fueled people's demands for political change across the Arab world. There have been calls for anti-government protests Thursday in Sudan, Friday in Jordan and Saturday in Syria.

On Wednesday, Saleh vowed not to run for another term in 2013 and said he wasn't positioning his son as his successor. He also vowed to begin broad talks aimed at reform with the opposition, which has reacted skeptically.

The pro-government rally, which appeared to have been set up hastily the night before, received official logistical support. Soldiers guarding the demonstration route from Sanaa's old city to its Tahrir Square mingled amicably with the thousands holding portraits of Saleh. Huge tents and loudspeakers lined the way.

"With our souls, with our blood we will sacrifice for you, oh Ali," they chanted, in support of Saleh.

The opposition, led by a coalition of well-organized and vocal political parties and organizations, had originally hoped to stage a rally along the same route as the pro-government rally.

Instead, it held its rally in the university district in western part of the capital. A large cordon of anti-government activists formed a human chain to guard against possible pro-government infiltrators. They held banners urging Saleh to "Go! Go! Go!" They held portraits of Mohammed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian produce vendor who set himself on fire Dec. 17 after being humiliated by authorities. That act of protest and desperation sparked the Tunisian revolution that toppled Ben Ali and captivated the Arab world.

Protesters in Sanaa described Saleh's promises of reform as "business as usual."

Yemen, the Arab world's poorest nation, faces an insurgency by rebels who call themselves Houthis in the north, a separatist movement in the south and an al-Qaida threat. Saleh is considered a close ally of the West in combating extremist Islam in the Arabian Peninsula and piracy in the adjacent Gulf of Aden. The Obama administration and the European Union have praised his pledges to reform.

But protesters blamed him for most of the country's troubles.

"All that happens in the south, all that happens with the Houthis in the north, the president is behind it," said Ali Hamdi, 22, a student who was among the anti-government protesters. "In order for these conflicts to stop, the president must go."

                                    (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)