Failing Islamic States - 2011

[George Wallace]

Interesting development if true.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Mubarak's Hired Thugs


Rural Poor Paid to Attack Opposition Supporters

02/04/2011
By Volkhard Windfuhr and Daniel Steinvorth in Cairo
SPIEGEL ONLINE

LINK

In exchange for the equivalent of a few euros, poor seasonal workers have taken part in street fighting in Cairo on the side of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The thugs, who fight with iron bars, knives and clubs, have been recruited by privileged members of the regime, including party officials, security forces and rich business people with lucrative state contracts.

The bloody clashes in Cairo show that not all of Egypt's 80 million people want to see President Hosni Mubarak overthrown or a new start heralded by fresh elections. Many are fiercely loyal to the ruling system and are ready to fight for it -- with brutality. On Thursday afternoon, there were even reports on the Al Jazeera news channel that Mubarak supporters were storming the hotels of Cairo and hunting down journalists.

The confrontation between the opponents and supporters of the Mubarak regime first escalated on Wednesday, as both sides engaged in hours-long battles on Cairo's central Tahrir Square and the adjoining side streets. Mubarak loyalists stormed the crowd, armed with knives, clubs and stones. Some, riding horses and camels, hit the demonstrators on the head with iron bars.

In Cairo's working-class district, they organized a big demonstration, including a motorcade of cars and motorbikes. They shouted slogans such as "Mubarak, we kneel before you," and "Yes to the president of peace." Taking part were members of trade unions and associations, as well as employees of state-run companies, who were obviously told by their bosses to attend.

In the background, the movement is being controlled by businessmen with lucrative state contracts, public servants, security officers and party officials, who are worried by the uncertainty of recent days. They are all determined to ensure that as little as possible changes, regardless of who follows Mubarak. They are the supporters and representatives of the ruling National Democratic Party, which has 3 million members, who fear that they could lose power in free elections. They are members of the nouveau riche, who have gained huge fortunes and influence, largely through corruption and criminality, and who currently enjoy immunity.

The Poor Are Easy Prey

They have everything to lose -- and are now depending on those who have nothing left to lose. The privileged members of the regime don't want to get their hands dirty. Instead, they recruit their helpers from the rural and semi-rural regions, particularly from two provinces north of Cairo: Bahtim and Qalyub. The poor, who make up the majority of the population here, are easy prey. Many are distrustful of the demonstrators' motives and fear that the movement is secretly pursuing other aims.

In every province, there are party offices. There, people, especially seasonal workers, are collected and offered a tiny sum of money to take part in the bloody battle to keep Mubarak in power. There is not much work on the land at this time of year. Terribly poor and illiterate, they set off to do their employers' bidding for a paltry sum equivalent to around €10-€15 ($14-$20). They are cheap, they are desperate and they don't ask questions. Thousands have taken part, though it is difficult to estimate the exact figure. According to eyewitnesses, around 4,000 people took part in the counter-demonstrations in Cairo and Alexandria on Wednesday.

Mubarak loyalists have resorted to perfidious measures to sabotage the protests by the opponents of the regime and to put on a show for international observers. Thousands of prisons, including detention centers in the desert, were opened in recent days. At total of 14,000 inmates, including murderers and other serious criminals, were suddenly set free. They were released on the understanding that they would cause as much chaos as possible -- effectively a license to plunder, murder and commit arson.

Between 4,000 and 5,000 of the inmates are thought to have now reached Cairo, while a few hundred have turned themselves in voluntarily. Many want to flee across Sinai to the Gaza Strip, in the hope that the radical Islamist group Hamas, which is in government there, will take them in. Hamas has so far not taken a position on the events in Egypt. However, it is assumed that they are not exactly sympathetic to Mubarak, because he has supported the Israeli-imposed blockade of the Gaza Strip. Hamas is also considered an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, a group officially banned in Egypt.

The opposition wants to demonstrate once again against the elderly Egyptian president on Friday. The planned march will converge on Cairo. And the members of the pro-Mubarak camp will also presumably be out in force -- with bloody consequences.

Annett Meiritz contributed to this report.

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Middle East


Syria's Day of Anger? Most Syrians suspect few will take to the streets.

By Claire Duffett, Contributor / February 3, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

Using Facebook a group has tried to organize a street protest for Friday. The Syrian government appears confident, however, that it can survive the current tumult in the Middle East by clamping down on dissent.

Damascus, Syria

A Facebook group named The Syrian Revolution – set up by expatriates – is calling for protests in various cities throughout the country and at a number of Syrian embassies overseas. More than 13,000 people are virtual members of the online forum.

But Syrians are skeptical that the “Day of Anger” planned for Friday will initiate large-scale, antigovernment opposition.

That skepticism underscores the government's apparent confidence that by muzzling opposition and maintaining a popular foreign policy, it will be one of the nondemocratic regimes in the region to survive the current tumult.

“The Syrian regime is very tough,” Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma University, wrote by e-mail from the US. “It will try to nip any demonstrations in the bud by arresting those who organize them or show up.”

If protests do transpire in Syria, each will be closely controlled and probably attract no more than a few hundred protesters, says Mazen Bilal, editor of Suria al-Ghad, a prominent Syrian news website. A few dozen people showed up for several "solidarity vigils" for Egypt in the capital this week, with police breaking up one gathering at the Egyptian embassy.

To some Syrians, the lack of assertiveness is disappointing.

“The Syrian people are chicken,” says Lochmann, a Kurdish architect who supports the opposition and asked for his last name to be withheld. Syrians understand the government’s swift and violent approach to suppressing dissent, he explains, from the razing of the Muslim Brotherhood-stronghold of Hama in 1982 by former President Hafez al-Assad to the crackdown by his son, current President Bashar al-Assad, on Kurdish protesters in eastern Syria in 2004 that killed at least 30 people and imprisoned hundreds.

The protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen have not gone unnoticed in Syria. During a recent drive through Damascus, a chatty taxi driver named Ahmad talked excitedly about the uprisings. “Arab people are ready for change,” he said. But when asked if Syria was similarly prepared, he answered simply: “No.”

Indeed, citizens often responded nervously to questions about the impact of regional protests on Syria.

When asked about whether the army is training soldiers on crowd control, a young soldier named Muhammad said: “No, it’s the same as usual. We prepare to fight Israel.”

The threat of sudden, secretive detention is one useful deterrent against dissent. Some 10,000 political prisoners reside inside Syria’s jails.

Another is the lesson of Iraq. “The presence of almost 1 million Iraqi refugees has chastened them to the dangers of regime collapse in a religiously divided society,” Mr. Landis says.

Local sources say the antigovernment movement lacks widespread popular support in part because Syria’s young president and his anti-American, anti-Israel foreign policy has made him more popular than some of the older, pro-West leaders facing turmoil. Most who feel differently are either in jail or out of the country.

“In Tunisia and Egypt, the people have a list of what they want to see happen,” says a young journalist who asked to remain anonymous. “In Syria, the opposition is out of the country and hasn’t been active here for years. I don’t think people here know what they want or why they are protesting. They are just copying what they’re seeing on TV, but they don’t have any real demands.”

Nevertheless, the government is closely monitoring and disrupting possible dissent. Syria’s only two Internet carriers, MTN and SyriaTel, have begun cracking down on access to foreign proxies, which Syrians commonly use to access banned websites like Facebook and YouTube. In mid-January, officials began confiscating Internet routers from coffee shops offering free wireless to customers.

Leaders have also supported "spontaneous" progovernment protests – attended by paid civil servants carrying matching, government-issued posters of Assad and Syrian flags. In the Kurdish neighborhood of Rukn el-Din in Damascus, the presence on the street of mukhabarat – easily discernible, plainclothes Syrian secret police – doubled this week, Lochmann, the Kurdish architect, says.

The government is also offering some carrots, trying, for example, to minimize discontent over living standards. Syria doubled the heating oil allowance for about 2 million state employees and pensioners the same week that concerns about rising prices helped topple the regime in Tunisia. The move contradicted the government's stated plan to eliminate fuel subsidies by 2015 and was a “direct result” of events in Tunisia, Bilal says.

“Syria is getting a good lesson from its neighbors,” Lochmann says. “These protests will be small, but you know what they say: ‘A journey begins with a single step.’”

More on LINK

Six countries in the Arab world where 'winds of change' are blowing

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Middle East


Could Syria see an uprising like Egypt's? Not likely.

By Nicholas Blanford, Correspondent / February 3, 2011 
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

In Syria, opposition activists are organizing their own 'day of rage' – but longstanding intimidation tactics and repression make it unlikely significant numbers will be out on the streets.

Beirut, Lebanon

Syrian opposition activists hope that the shockwave of Egypt and Tunisia's mass uprisings, which have shaken the Arab world, will begin to reverberate in Syria, with calls for a “day of rage” Friday throughout the country.

But analysts believe opponents of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad face a daunting struggle in replicating the street revolutions that so far have toppled one head of state in Tunisia and left another teetering on the edge in Egypt.

“We have been surprised before in this crisis, but my sense is that it’s unlikely we will see large, large, large groups of people coming together because the security services will be intimidating people, arresting people, keeping a very tight lid,” says Nadim Houry, Lebanon representative of Human Rights Watch (HRW), a New York-based watchdog.

The seismic upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt have triggered unrest elsewhere in the Arab world, particularly in Yemen and Jordan. Syria, ruled by the Baath Party since 1963 and the Assad family since 1970, also seems at first glance potentially vulnerable. It shares some passing similarities with Tunisia and Egypt, particularly economic hardship – rising prices, unemployment, poverty, and the cancellation of subsidies on basic commodities.

Yet there are also critical differences, which may lessen chances of a Tunisia-style revolution taking hold. Perhaps chief among them are the sectarian divisions within Syria. Such divisions, if unleashed by protests, could cause bloodshed and chaos similar to the experiences of Lebanon and Iraq in recent years.

“The cautionary tales of its neighbors to the east and west – Iraq and Lebanon – have only reinforced Syrian anxieties about the dangers of weakening the central government in a country with a mixed sectarian and ethnic population,” says Elias Muhanna, author of the influential Qifa Nabki blog.

Syria’s population is predominantly Sunni, but the backbone of the regime is drawn from the minority Alawite community, an offshoot of the Shiite sect. The marginalized Kurdish population is also a potent factor in the country’s sectarian and ethnic composition.

Intimidation, repression discourages opposition

Syrian activists have used Facebook and Twitter to spread the word in the past week, calling for protests and demonstrations on Friday and Saturday. Although Facebook has been blocked in Syria since November 2007, many Syrians use proxy servers to sidestep the ban. President Assad himself has a Facebook page.

“The storm against tyranny and monopoly must come to Syria,” says a statement released by the Popular Movement for Change in Syria. “Don’t be afraid and know the government does not have a choice but to listen to your voice when millions will demonstrate in the streets.”

The prediction of “millions” taking to the streets in the next two days seems overly optimistic judging from the small number of protestors who held a recent series of gatherings in Damascus in support of the Egyptian uprising.

Some 200 people turned up for a candlelit vigil outside the Egyptian embassy in Damascus on Sunday. According to Mr. Houry of Human Rights Watch, Syrian security officers also were present, taking photographs of the demonstrators and demanding to see the identification cards of some attendants. That security presence appears to have had a chilling effect on the demonstrators, as fewer numbers attended subsequent gatherings.

On Wednesday, the police stayed away, but some 20 men turned up to harass the protestors, questioning their motives, and accusing them of serving outside powers, says Houry, who is in regular contact with the activists. Another gathering was scheduled for Thursday afternoon to protest against Syria’s two cellular phone services, Syriatel and MTN Syria, which are regularly criticized for their high tariffs, the second highest in the Arab world. Rami Makhlouf, Assad’s cousin, is the majority shareholder of Syriatel, Syria’s largest private corporation, which fuels accusations of cronyism.

Anti-regime demonstrations in Syria are rare due to rigid state control and a fractured opposition. The strongest opposition to the the 48-year-rule of the Baath Party in Syria have been from the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood and Syrian Kurds who live mainly in the northeast adjacent to Syria’s borders with Turkey and Iraq.

A rebellion by the Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1970s was ruthlessly crushed in 1982. The organization remains banned in Syria and its leaders live in exile. The Kurds have demonstrated for greater rights on several occasions. The most recent uprising, in 2004, was heavily suppressed and followed by a campaign of arrest and imprisonment of Kurdish activists.

“Authorities continued to broadly violate the civil and political rights of its citizens, arresting political and human rights activists, censoring websites, detaining bloggers, and imposing travel bans,” said a report on Syria’s human rights policy in 2010 released by Human Rights Watch last week.

Why change is slow to come

When Assad succeeded his father, Hafez, in 2000, many Syrians expected a process of political liberalization to follow. But changes have been slow, with the focus on gradual economic reforms rather than political freedoms.

The traumatic and bloody developments in the region over the past decade also have done little to hasten a speedier transition. Syria’s backing of anti-Israel resistance movements, such as Lebanon’s militant Shiite group Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, as well as its long-standing strategic relationship with Iran, placed it at odds with the US. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the mass demonstrations in Beirut two years later, which led to Syria pulling its troops from Lebanon, further isolated Damascus and placed it on the defensive.

Still, unlike the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia, no one can accuse Assad of being a lackey of the West, which gives him a degree of credibility in the eyes of many Syrians and Arabs of other countries. Furthermore, his relative youth (he is 45 years old) stands in marked contrast to many of the ossified kings and presidents elsewhere in the Arab world.

“By successfully supporting Lebanese and Palestinian resistance movements and by opening Syria’s borders to over a million Iraqi refugees, Assad helped boost Syria’s sense of national pride,” says Camille Alexandre Otrakji, a Syrian blogger and author of www.creativesyria.com, a web forum for Syrian culture and politics. “Mubarak, the president of the largest Arab country, humiliated his proud people by consistently appearing to be nothing more than an American and Israeli puppet.”

Still, Andrew Tabler, a Syria specialist with the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that support for anti-Israel groups and standing up to the US, “doesn’t work well where the regime is weakest: skyrocketing corruption and lack of reforms.”

More on LINK

US sends ambassador to Syria for the first time in six years

In Syria, a kernel of democracy

[url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2010/1118/Facebook-banned-in-Syria-is-widely-used-even-by-the-government]Facebook, banned in Syria, is widely used – even by the government

 

[57Chevy]

Interesting development if true.

It certainly is. When I first saw the camels I thought of border crossings and lots of money changing hands.
To see the Mubarak supporters paying the countrys poor for retaliation against the protesters is proof enough
of just how bad that country bathes in corruption.
Egypt, along with many countries experience major problems as a result of it.
For information on corruption from the UN standpoint;

United Nations Convention against Corruption
Link

                        UNODC's Action against Corruption and Economic Crime
                         
Corruption is a complex social, political and economic phenomenon that affects all countries. Corruption undermines democratic institutions, slows economic development and contributes to governmental instability. Corruption attacks the foundation of democratic institutions by distorting electoral processes, perverting the rule of law and creating bureaucratic quagmires whose only reason for existing is the soliciting of bribes. Economic development is stunted because foreign direct investment is discouraged and small businesses within the country often find it impossible to overcome the "start-up costs" required because of corruption.
________________________
Strange enough as it may seem UNODC and Egypt launch major anti-corruption drive on International Day 09 December 2010.
from article....
"Fighting corruption is a shared responsibility that requires strong leadership to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.  I commend Egypt for being one of the first States parties to the UN Convention against Corruption.  As a country that is vitally important regionally, economically and culturally, your gesture sends out a strong message of determination to strengthen the rule of law".
__________________________________
Also
"Thousands of prisons, including detention centers in the desert, were opened in recent days. At total of 14,000 inmates, including murderers and other serious criminals, were suddenly set free."

IMO....That has to be Mr. Mubaraks greatest blunder in that it will ensure Egyptian instability for years to come.

                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[a_majoor]

Are the waves of revolution across the Middle East symptomatic of a larger issue?

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-arab-revolution-and-western-decline-1.340967

The Arab revolution and Western decline
By Ari Shavit

Two huge processes are happening right before our eyes. One is the Arab liberation revolution. After half a century during which tyrants have ruled the Arab world, their control is weakening. After 40 years of decaying stability, the rot is eating into the stability. The Arab masses will no longer accept what they used to accept. The Arab elites will no longer remain silent.

Processes that have been roiling beneath the surface for about a decade are suddenly bursting out in an intifada of freedom. Modernization, globalization, telecommunications and Islamization have created a critical mass that cannot be stopped. The example of democratic Iraq is awakening others, and Al Jazeera's subversive broadcasts are fanning the flames. And so the Tunisian bastille fell, the Cairo bastille is falling and other Arab bastilles will fall.

The scenes are similar to the Palestinian intifada of 1987, but the collapse recalls the Soviet collapse in Eastern Europe of 1989. No one knows where the intifada will lead. No one knows whether it will bring democracy, theocracy or a new kind of democracy. But things will never again be the same.

The old order in the Middle East is crumbling. Just as the officers' revolution in the 1950s brought down the Arab monarchism that had relied on the colonial powers, the 2011 revolution in the square is bringing down the Arab tyrants who were dependent on the United States.

The second process is the acceleration of the decline of the West. For some 60 years the West gave the world imperfect but stable order. It built a kind of post-imperial empire that promised relative quiet and maximum peace. The rise of China, India, Brazil and Russia, like the economic crisis in the United States, has made it clear that the empire is beginning to fade.

And yet, the West has maintained a sort of international hegemony. Just as no replacement has been found for the dollar, none has been found for North Atlantic leadership. But Western countries' poor handling of the Middle East proves they are no longer leaders. Right before our eyes the superpowers are turning into palaver powers.

There are no excuses for the contradictions. How can it be that Bush's America understood the problem of repression in the Arab world, but Obama's America ignored it until last week? How can it be that in May 2009, Hosni Mubarak was an esteemed president whom Barack Obama respected, and in January 2011, Mubarak is a dictator whom even Obama is casting aside? How can it be that in June 2009, Obama didn't support the masses who came out against the zealot Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while now he stands by the masses who are coming out against the moderate Mubarak?

There is one answer: The West's position is not a moral one that reflects a real commitment to human rights. The West's position reflects the adoption of Jimmy Carter's worldview: kowtowing to benighted, strong tyrants while abandoning moderate, weak ones.

Carter's betrayal of the Shah brought us the ayatollahs, and will soon bring us ayatollahs with nuclear arms. The consequences of the West's betrayal of Mubarak will be no less severe. It's not only a betrayal of a leader who was loyal to the West, served stability and encouraged moderation. It's a betrayal of every ally of the West in the Middle East and the developing world. The message is sharp and clear: The West's word is no word at all; an alliance with the West is not an alliance. The West has lost it. The West has stopped being a leading and stabilizing force around the world.

The Arab liberation revolution will fundamentally change the Middle East. The acceleration of the West's decline will change the world. One outcome will be a surge toward China, Russia and regional powers like Brazil, Turkey and Iran. Another will be a series of international flare-ups stemming from the West's lost deterrence. But the overall outcome will be the collapse of North Atlantic political hegemony not in decades, but in years. When the United States and Europe bury Mubarak now, they are also burying the powers they once were. In Cairo's Tahrir Square, the age of Western hegemony is fading away.

This story is by:

Ari Shavit

 

[57Chevy]

quote.....if I may
"The West's word is no word at all; an alliance with the West is not an alliance. The West has lost it. The West has stopped being a leading and stabilizing force around the world"

That is a lot of Hogwash. The West.....The West....The West....without a doubt, the many anti-west groups will point the finger in like manner. But that is not the truth of the matter is it now ? And you know very well that it is not.
You would like it to be and you even try to portray that message to the world.
But the real enemy is "corruption"
And you know it.
Go ask the oppressed peoples anywhere in the world for what reason they protest and you will find but one answer.
"Corruption" in some form or another is what you will hear.
And they are willing to give their lives to overcome it.
All the while you point the finger in vain in an attempt to bury their cause.
How low will you stoop ?

 

[MarkOttawa]

Excerpts from a lengthy post at the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute's 3Ds Blog:

The World Needs More Canada?
http://www.cdfai.org/the3dsblog/?p=94

Lorne Gunter, one of our best columnists, rains on the Liberals’ (and many others’, including academics and pundits who should know better) parade:

    "Libs believe the world waits for Canada’s Egypt stance

    A daydream, courtesy of Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae..."

Then there’s this from another fine columnist, John Robson of the Ottawa Citizen:

    "…The first step is for everybody to abandon the notion that striking a suitably righteous pose is anything but perilous pomposity in such matters...

    What manner of drivel is this? Does anyone suppose the corrupt, brutal regime in Egypt perched precariously atop an Islamist volcano, the protesters trying to dislodge it, or the small middle class trembling that they might succeed, give a hoot what Canada says?.."

To put things in perspective, this piece in the Vancouver Sun is worth a very serious read; it describes, very accurately I think, the hard realities of international perceptions of Canada–to the extent they exist:

  '…Canada is, judging by The Economist’s year-end issue anyway, invisible. Unimportant. Virtually irrelevant. On par with Croatia...

    While other smaller or less developed economies are able to leverage their country’s identity to market products, Canada has none [exactly! a key point]. Global consumers identify Ikea with Sweden, Corona with Mexico, Nokia with Finland and Lego with Denmark.

    In the underground stations around London, huge billboards advertise BlackBerry hand-held devices. But does it register for a second on the minds of British commuters: “Those Canadians really do design great cell-phones.” Hardly…'

This lack of an international industrial image, especially one associated with high technology, is crucial.  It makes it that much harder for Canadian companies to get their foot in the door.  Mexico may have Corona (we have forests and Roots) but how easy do you think it would be trying to sell Mexican nuclear reactors?  It is significant and sad that companies such as RIM and Bombardier, in their international advertising, do their best to avoid any association with Canada.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Middle East


Defying violence, Egyptian protesters find unity – and pride – at peaceful mass rally

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / February 4, 2011 
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

Tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters flooded Egypt's Tahrir Square today to press for the departure of President Mubarak. 'I'm here for Egypt,' said one middle-aged man.

Cairo

For the second Friday in a row, tens of thousands of Egyptian protesters calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak and the establishment of democracy here gathered in Tahrir Square in a largely peaceful and joyous scene.

Today's event was branded as a "day of departure" for Mubarak by overoptimistic organizers. That wasn't forthcoming, but the effort, which appeared to be the largest antigovernment gathering so far, remains a stunning success nonetheless.

This past Tuesday, bowing to demonstrators, Mubarak promised not to run in a presidential election scheduled for September. The next day, pro-regime thugs were unleashed on demonstrators in Tahrir Square, leaving at least eight people dead and hundreds injured.

On Thursday, there was a coordinated crackdown on the foreign press – particularly against satellite TV stations like Al Jazeera, which has been streaming live footage of the protests into millions of Arab and Egyptian homes. Meanwhile, state television was broadcasting reports suggesting that protests were part of a foreign plot.

The increasingly presidential-looking Vice President Omar Suleiman, the former intelligence chief who stepped out of the shadows for the first time last night with a national address, complained that the democracy protesters appeared to be serving a "foreign agenda." He also urged protesters to immediately go home.

All of this appeared to point to another crackdown today, and protesters were prepared for the worst.

"We had 200 casualties coming through here every half-hour on Wednesday. I'm frightened that this afternoon [Friday] could dwarf that," says Mohamed Riad, a doctor volunteering at the makeshift hospital protesters have set up in an alley close to the American University in Cairo. "I think they're going to come down and try to crush this."

His dire prediction wasn't realized, but this morning there were fewer women and children among the protesters than on Wednesday, a testament to the fear sowed by this week's violence. As the afternoon wore on and violence did not materialize, thousands of new protesters poured in to the square, more women and children among them.

The international condemnation of the pro-regime violence this week and the intimidation of the press probably contributed to the peaceful protests today. In Tunisia, a violent crackdown against demonstrators spurred on the opposition, so regime figures may be hoping protests will eventually dwindle on their own before fundamental democratic change is made, particularly after the concessions of this week.

What's next for Cairo?

As night fell, protesters began heading home – some disappointed that Mubarak remains Egypt's leader, at least officially, others murmuring that perhaps they had accomplished enough and it's time for Egypt to return to normal.

The coming days will likely prove a test of wills between Mubarak and the protesters. Mubarak told ABC News last night that "chaos" would break out if he stepped down and vowed to die on Egyptian soil. It remains to be seen if the demonstrators can maintain momentum in what so far remains a largely leaderless revolution.

"I'm with the people – I'm not from any party," says one of the volunteer civilian guards helping to check protesters for weapons as they pour into Tahrir Square.

A burly middle-aged man inside the square says: "I'm here for Egypt. This is Egypt. I'm not from the Muslim Brotherhood, I'm not from Kifaya [a secular pro-democracy] group, I'm just from Egypt."

The lack of a single obvious figurehead or organization behind the protests has been a source of strength. No simple roundup of leaders is likely to decapitate this movement. But if the regime avoids violence and refuses to bow to unmet demands, what comes next? Nobel Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei didn't join the protesters today and hasn't shown signs of galvanizing the opposition.

To be sure, the demonstrators on the square are sharing pride in being Egyptian – the common thread that they insist will push them forward.

"I'm 22 years old and I've never been able to stand up for my rights before," says Gehad Salman, who works in a Cairo hotel. "They're trying to trick us, to exhaust us. But we won't stop until Mubarak goes."

The Muslim Brotherhood's role

Some abroad, particularly in the US, have pointed with alarm to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group that long ago eschewed violence, as the possible winner of Egypt's struggle for change. Leaders from the group, Egypt's best organized opposition movement, say they have no current designs on the presidency or senior government posts, and insist they are committed to democracy.

Mubarak sought to play up on fears of the Brotherhood in his interview with ABC News's Christiane Amanpour yesterday, saying they were behind the protests, and that they would take over and lead to "chaos" if he steps down.

The Brothers have certainly been present at the demonstrations, but they've largely taken a backseat to a broad spectrum of Egyptian society, as was clear today.

The Brothers were there, or at least seemed to be (men with longish beards and trimmed mustaches, women with veils covering their faces). But so were girls with stylish sunglasses and flowing hair, looking like they'd just stepped out of a Cairo nightclub, not into the midst of a popular revolution. Ranks of Coptic Christians linked arms to provide symbolic protection to Muslims while they prayed at noon.

Little boys were there, carried on their fathers' shoulders. There were laborers from factories in the delta, waiters from the five-star hotels along the Nile, small business owners, career dissidents, and men so poor they looked one step from living on the street. There were capitalists, socialists, and people who boiled down their political philosophy to wanting "freedom."

Amr Moussa, a popular former Egyptian foreign minister seeking to muscle his way into the succession conversation, was there, too. He's currently head of the Arab League, and has said in recent days that he's willing to act as a leader if the people demand it.

More on LINK


Egypt's VP uses state TV to blame unrest on 'foreign agendas'

Egypt protests: An endgame seems to be approaching, but whose?

Opinion: Why won't Obama read the writing on the wall? Mubarak must go.

 

[a_majoor]

To 57 Chevy

While I agree that internal corruption is probably the single greatest factor in triggering the various uprisings in the Arab world, the intent of the author was not to point the finger at the Arab world but rather the inconsistant stance of the United States and her allies. The West has made alliances of conveinience throughout the ME based mostly on the ability to control the "allied" state through bribery and coercion, and chosen mostly to either gain access to something or deny access to rival Powers (and this game has been played since WWI).

Since there seems to be no real consistency or logic to who is the favoured State actor or who gets tossed under the bus, rulers in the Middle East (and by extension everywhere) are left to wonder if they will be supported or left hanging in the wind should something happen. Since hanging in the wind is not considered a viable option, the rulers and ruling elites will probably begin moving towards States that will act in a consistent manner (China, Russia and other regional powers), further weakening the West (in particular our ability to organize and manage global trade, which is our real advantage over "the rest"). This sort of thing is one of the reasons that I am for an "Anglosphere" group, since those nations are connected by common values and there should be clear reason for them to maintain mutual support.

It is very true that anti western groups will take up the cry with great enthusiasm, but then again, they don't really need much encouragement to do so.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Corruption is a symptom, not a really serious problem in and of itself. Corruption is indicative of the "habit of mind" I discussed elsewhere when I explained why I think democracy is far, far away from North Africa, the Middle East and West and South-West Asia.

Corruption is too easy when too many people expect too little from their governments. As soon as public expectations rise corruption is amongst the first symptoms to fall away. But those public expectations are rooted in attitudes and institutions that reinforce one another and strengthen that "habit of mind" that is all important.

Building both the attitudes and institutions takes time. We often like to point out that "we' brought "democracy" to Japan in just a few years. Not really true - what "we" did was graft some of our institutions onto a strong cultural base of high expectations in governments and then allow them to grow on their own, in their own, Japanese, way. Ditto Germany.
 

 

[MarkOttawa]

Plus Japan and Germany had considerable experience with parliamentary democracy before WW II.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Middle East


Leadership of Egypt's ruling party resigns

Saturday, February 5, 2011 | 4:21 PM
CTV

LINK

Six top members of Egypt's ruling party have resigned, according to Egyptian state TV, in what appears to be the latest concession by the country's government to quell mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak.

All six members of the Steering Committee of the General Secretariat -- the National Democratic Party's top decision-making body -- resigned and were replaced. They included the president's son Gamal Mubarak, as well as party secretary-general Safwat el-Sharif.

The younger Mubarak was thought to be in line to eventually succeed his father as president. But newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman had pledged that Gamal would not run for that post when elections are held in September.

There were mixed reports as to whether Hosni Mubarak had resigned as head of the National Democratic Party. But it appears he will continue in that role, which is separate from his post as president.

The outgoing members were considered among the party's most powerful leaders in the regime, and were unpopular among many Egyptians.

Despite the resignations, tens of thousands of anti-government protesters descended on Cairo's Tahrir Square on Saturday, for the 12th-straight day of mass demonstrations. They say they plan to continue holding anti-government rallies until Mubarak leaves office.

A new committee composed of various factions from the ranks of the protesters, including former presidential candidate Ayman Nour, has been formed to conduct negotiations on the protesters' behalf. But it says it will not enter transition talks until Mubarak steps down.

Youth activist Abdel-Rahman Youssef told The Associated Press that members of the group met with the prime minister late Friday to discuss how the standoff will end.

"The message is that they must recognize the legitimacy of the revolution and that president must leave one way or the other, either real or political departure," he said.

Youssef said "there is no force" that can dislodge young protesters from Tahrir square, which has become the heart of the demonstrations.

However, it remained far from clear whether their demands would be met.

In Germany, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the White House was endorsing Mubarak's vice president to handle the transition. Order was needed to keep extremists from seizing power, she said.

"It's important to support the transition process announced by the Egyptian government actually headed by now-Vice President Omar Suleiman," Clinton told the crowd at an international security summit in Munich.

Kamran Bokhari, a Middle East analyst with the global intelligence firm Stratfor, said the influence of the United States in Egypt can't be ignored.

The country of 80 million people has long been considered one of Washington's closest allies in the region -- it receives more than $1.5 billion a year in U.S. foreign aid -- and Bokhari said the White House is concerned about setting the right example.

"Clearly the United States would not like to humiliate President Mubarak -- that sets a very bad precedent for U.S. allies in the region," he told CTV News Channel.

News of the resignations in Mubarak's party came just hours after Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq appeared on state TV to tell viewers that stability is returning to the North African country.

Shafiq's statements suggested that Egypt's autocratic leader may stay on and try to ride out calls by the protesters for his immediate resignation.

The prime minister said that Friday's demonstration, which drew an estimated 100,000 protesters to Tahrir, or Freedom Square in downtown Cairo, had failed to oust the 82-year-old president.

"We haven't been affected and God willing next Friday we won't be affected," Shafiq said. "All this leads to stability."

A self-described "group of wise men" made up of the country's elite held talks with Shafiq regarding Mubarak's departure late Friday.

One proposal asked that the president hand authority to Suleiman. But Mubarak would retain his presidential title for the time being, allowing the country's ruler of three decades to save face as he's eased out.

Mubarak has refused to oblige requests for his departure, saying he plans to finish the remainder of his term through September. His aides have said the president should not be humiliated in the transition.

With files from The Associated Press

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Transition in Egypt



ElBaradei Wants to Negotiate with the Army

02/05/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

The Egyptian demonstrators want a quick transition of power -- and there are already plans afoot for what happens after Mubarak. Leading opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei told SPIEGEL that he wants to hold talks with the army, while the deputy head of the Muslim Brotherhood explained that they reject violence.

The seeds of change are sprouting in Egypt - and the opposition is continuing to push for mass protests. Egyptian Nobel Prize laureate and opposition politician Mohamed ElBaradei says he wants to continue to mobilize protests against President Hosni Mubarak as an "agent of change."

In an interview with SPIEGEL, ElBaradei called for Mubarak's immediate resignation. "Mubarak must go, not at some point, but now," the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency told SPIEGEL. He said he was certain Mubarak could "find some Arab state that would be willing to take him in. I have heard from Bahrain."

Media reports suggest that considerations have also been made to send Mubarak to Germany. The New York Times reported on Saturday that Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman and other top military leaders are considering flying Mubarak to Germany for a medical checkup. This is apparently a part of a leadership plan to find a dignified way out of the crisis for Mubarak, according to the paper. According to the plan, Mubarak would fly to Germany for his annual medical leave, only this time he would remain for an extended check-up. Another variant would see the president retreating to his holiday home in the Red Sea resort Sharm el Sheik, the New York Times wrote, citing unnamed US government sources. The goal is to provide a graceful exit for Mubarak that would see him leaving the presidential palace without being immediately stripped of the presidency.

'The Country Is Falling Apart'

ElBaradei is now calling for new leadership in Egypt and he says he is prepared to negotiate with the military. "The longer things continue with Mubarak, the clearer it becomes: The country is falling apart, politically and economically," he told SPIEGEL. "I would prefer to speak to the army leadership soon," the opposition politician said, to "explore" how we could achieve a peaceful transition without bloodshed.

ElBaradei also warned the Israeli government that it must accept the end of the Mubarak regime. "The Israelis should understand that it is in their long-term interest to have a democratic Egypt as a neighbor." He also said it would be "prudent" for the Israelis to "acknowledge the legitimate interests of the Palestinians and to grant them their own state" for the sake of good relations with Cairo.

Meanwhile, the deputy head of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Rashad al-Bayoumi, is calling for a transition government that includes all the opposition groups, new elections and the release of all political prisoners. "After 30 years of repression, corruption and dictatorship, we are now definitively at a crossroads," Bayoumi said in a SPIEGEL interview. "The revolution will continue until our demands have been fulfilled." He said the Muslim Brotherhood would also respect those with different religious beliefs. "Those are our principles," he said. "We are not the devil," he said, claiming the government had created a false image of the group "Our religion is not a diabolical religion," he added.

Bayoumi said he didn't know how many members the Muslim Brotherhood currently has in Egypt. "We don't count," he said. "The government says we are 3 million - all I know is that we are everywhere." The Muslim Brotherhood has remained deliberately reserved at the protests. "We don't want the revolution to be portrayed as the revolution of the Muslim Brotherhood," he said. "This is a popular revolt of all Egyptians." He said the government alone is responsible for the deaths and injuries that have occurred during the protests. "I swear to you, the Muslim Brotherhood has not called for violence and we will not do that."

In Germany, the government has offered cautious signs of support for the opposition. Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated the European Union's willingness to aid a transformation in North Africa. "There will be changes in Egypt," she said at the annual Munich Security Conference. But this transformation must be formed, she said, and Europe is prepared to support this process through a new partnership.

Merkel also reiterated the "absolute necessity" of protecting the civil rights of the Egyptian people. She expressed her relief that the protests are again proceeding largely peacefully.

Check back on Monday for the full English-language versions of the interviews with Mohamed ElBaradei and Rashad al-Bayoumi.

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[57Chevy]

As an example of the "Anglosphore" group of nations (primarily Christian) bringing change and advancement to other cultures
We can look at what is known as "The Golden age of Islam" and we find that at the time, there was a much greater tolerance to Christianity and therefore of the western influence on their culture.

With the rise of Islamism, the ousting of western values and incompatibilities became imminent and thus deteriorated the ability for co-existence. Even so the 'graft' as was mentioned remained. (I think)
The lack of the ability to co-exist has always been a deciding factor in the decline of otherwise global superpowers and in the use of military force.

We design many things for the benefit of all people no matter their culture but we design laws according to our own specific culture. With time, we come to know and accept those laws as being the 'normal'. So then we expect other cultures to adhere to them and accept them into their own culture. And we say "why not ? It works for us". So it should work for you, but it doesn't.
As a people we lack the ability to co-exist whether it be because of the difference of religions, skin color or language. (Even with nature and sometimes with new technology.) We all fall short of that ability. Why is that ?  jealousy, greed, money, power or what ?
Advancement in the ability to co-exist requires the observation of other cultures with minimal or without interference (as China exercises) but with full dialogue, full support of trade ventures and issues pertaining to health and welfare.
Are we able ? Indeed we are.

We are already on the right road but we are so easily deviated from that accomplishment by the complexity and the diversity of factors. One of those factors is our ability in the use of words and wording.
And lets face it, we have become quite versed in word management.
We have had many years of practice and created organizations that deal mainly in dialogue. If we made an equal effort in human co-existence as we do in word management the world (perhaps) would be a better place. We see it everyday in every sector of humanity no matter the language. Diplomats weigh their words in an effort to maintain a workable balance between nations. Heads of state seek the perfect wording or that perfect phrase that suits the expectations of the people or caters toward a desired or anticipated accomplishment.
We weigh our words in appraisal or at times in the hope of intimidating others, to cast doubt or direct blame. At times in the hope of rallying support for a cause, whatever it may be.
That is what I was referring to in my earlier post.
Journalists at times use this ability to direct attention away from some very real issues that exists. In the case of the Egyptian uprising pro islamists journalists will utilize events so as to favoritize their cause and place the blame on the west.
Just as the anti-semitic journalist will blame the jews utilizing the same current events. While both know very well the true cause of the uprising is corruption. And not only that, in their attempt of drawing attention to their 'cause' there arises bloodshed or destruction where there normally wouldn't be.

Being totally wrapped up in their own quest of attempting to direct attention to their own sacred cause they may overlook other equally or more important factors which may have devastating effects not only for the Middle East and the West including Israel, but the entire world.

The control of the Suez Canal which is of extreme importance to the Egyptian economy and one of the worlds most widely used shipping gates. Stable government is a basic requirement in any area that has an effect on global matters.

The question is not, What is the US position regarding Egypt or The whole world awaits Canada's position on Egypt  or The Brotherhood of Islam..., The Jewish State...., Iran.....etc.
Frightened by the possible overwhelming snowball effect, today the world powers walk on eggs and hone their words diligently.

IMO The real question is: What is the position of the whole world concerning Egypt and The Suez Canal ?

 

[nuclearzombies]

Pardon me, a bit of a semi-relevant afterthought. If I recall correctly, Tunisian troops distinguished themselves as part of UNAMIR, in that they proved to be (also the Ghanians under Joe Anyidoho) some of the more useful troops among Dallaire's limited stable after UNSC chopped his legs off.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think it is interesting that the "golden age" of Islam depended, above all else, on outside knowledge: from Classical Europe (Greece and Rome) preserved and propagated by Jews, and from India and father East, brought to Baghdad and Cairo by Jews. The later European Renaissance (rebirth) depended upon the same Jews and their stock of knowledge, burnished, as it was, by the scholars - mostly Jews - of the Islamic "golden age."

We, the later "reformed," "enlightened" and "industrialized" Europeans, brought little to the world except process - Aristotle, Livy, Plato and Seneca are still 2,500 years later, the firm base upon which our civilization rests. The One problem faced by our African, Middle Eastern and West Asian brethren is that their classical foundation is too weak - the philosophical superstructures they attempt to build cannot stand.

It isn't really "states" that fail - the modern nation-state is a 17th century (Treaty of Westphalia) construct: it is cultures (what Samuel Huntington called "civilizations") that fail because they are too weak to succeed.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Or the "cultures" lose their internal raison d'être, go flabby and turn into "civilizations"--see Spengler:
http://www.amazon.com/Decline-West-Oxford-Paperbacks/dp/0195066340

Mark
Ottawa

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

ElBaradei on Democracy's Chances in Egypt


'We Could Experience an Arab Spring'

02/06/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

In a SPIEGEL interview, Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei explains why President Hosni Mubarak should leave Egypt as soon as possible, how Israel should view the popular revolts across the Arab world and how he could go from being an "agent of change" to Egypt's next president.

SPIEGEL: Mr. ElBaradei, is Egypt in danger of a civil war?

ElBaradei: I see this danger. We've experienced a complete collapse of public order and bloody, sometimes even fatal assaults. These were carried out by provocateurs, most of whom were recruited by the intelligence service and the police.

SPIEGEL: Do you have any proof of that?

ElBaradei: Yes, the culprits took off their uniforms so that they could not be recognized. Some of them still had their identification papers on them when they were seized by the demonstrators. The only way they could have caused widespread panic on horses and camels was with the government's support. They robbed passersby and journalists, and they tried to prevent the demonstrators from getting supplies.

SPIEGEL: Shouldn't you be headed down to Tahrir Square to try to use your authority to calm people down there?

ElBaradei: I was there once, and things broke out in turmoil. I need to watch out for my own safety. There are people who think they'd be doing the regime a favor by killing me. The longer things continue on this way with Mubarak, the clearer it becomes that the country is imploding both politically and economically. Mubarak must go; not at some point, but now. I believe the Americans are also getting very impatient.

SPIEGEL: You've given Mubarak an ultimatum. It expired on Friday, which the demonstrators dubbed the "day of departure" ...

ElBaradei: ... and I will say it again: He must go away quickly. I'm sure that some Arab country will take him in. I've heard from Bahrain. If he still has one spark of patriotism, this is his last chance.

SPIEGEL: You know Mubarak personally. How does he think?

ElBaradei: I've met with him on a few occasions. We discussed Egyptian foreign policy. The conversations weren't at all uncomfortable. Still, I believe he is afflicted with the malady of dictators. No one within his circle dares to contradict him anymore, to tell him the truth. I think it has gotten very lonely around him.

SPIEGEL: So who should convince him he has to go?

ElBaradei: The Egyptian people. Now that the culture of fear has been vanquished in Egypt, the people know that they can accomplish everything. I am very proud of my fellow countrymen. Just a few months back, when I was at an event with my brother, I turned to him and said, depressed: 'Dead souls; the Egyptians are all dead souls.' Today, I look young people in the eyes and I see self-confidence, a spirit of optimism and a belief in what the future holds.

SPIEGEL: Did you expect that would ever happen?

ElBaradei: I had hoped it would, but I didn't see it coming -- at least not at this speed. A people that was frozen in a political coma just a few months ago is now a model for all the world's oppressed peoples. It's truly astounding.

SPIEGEL: Do you think it is more of an advantage or disadvantage that the movement doesn't have a real leader? Or would you go so far as to say that you ...

ElBaradei: ... no, I'm not that presumptuous. It is a broad-based movement. I can't say that I am its leader. I'm happy to be an agent of change, and I'm working closely with the demonstrators. Young people, in particular, should be praised for what they've accomplished. I'm prepared to advise them on how to transform their successes on the street into concrete political results. Three of their leaders will be coming to visit me for this very purpose right after we're done talking.

SPIEGEL: Very little has been said recently about your National Alliance for Change, which includes members of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood in addition to students. Are you still representing that group when you negotiate with the government?

ElBaradei: Yes. Yesterday, I spoke with (government) representatives once again. But the scorched earth policy will only end when the conditions are right, when the president is gone. We do not cede any legitimacy to representatives of the regime who support Mubarak.

SPIEGEL: Newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman has already entered into a dialogue with opposition leaders -- but not with you or any representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood.

ElBaradei: I've heard that, as well. He met with representatives of the established parties ...

SPIEGEL: ... and, in doing so, has started driving a wedge into the opposition ...

ElBaradei: ... but these parties don't have much to say. The most important forces are the demonstrators and the Muslim Brotherhood, both of which are the best organized groupings. I would prefer to speak with the army leadership soon to explore how we could achieve a peaceful transition without bloodshed. With a new constitution and the dissolving of the current parliament. How we can build a modern, democratic state.

SPIEGEL: Do you see any parallels between the toppling of the regimes in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989 and the ongoing popular uprisings in the Arab world?

ElBaradei: Absolutely. Both are major, historic breaks. What's currently playing out in the Arab world -- from Tunisia all the way to Yemen -- resembles a wildfire. I have no doubt that the transition in Egypt will be accompanied by a transition in the entire Middle East. We could experience an Arab Spring ...

SPIEGEL: ... which hopefully won't end as tragically as the Prague Spring of 1968, when Warsaw Pact troops violently suppressed political liberalization in Czechoslovakia. The Israelis seem more worried than anyone.

ElBaradei: There are a few myths that Mubarak has successfully disseminated in the West and in Israel. First, that if he falls, there will be immediate chaos. Second, that if Egypt transitions into a democracy, the peace treaty with Israel will be annulled and we will be on the verge of entering into a new war in the Middle East. And, third, that if there is a transformation, an ayatollah à la Iran will take over in Cairo. All of that is nonsense.

SPIEGEL: Does that mean you can't sympathize with people's nervousness about Egyptian Islamists?

ElBaradei: I don't think like the Muslim Brotherhood, and I don't share their conservative religious ideology. Incidentally, they are not a majority; instead they have the potential to win about 20 percent of the Egyptian vote. Nor do they have ties with al-Qaida. They have sworn off violence and agreed to play by democratic rules.

SPIEGEL: Are you now saying that a government that included participation by the Muslim Brotherhood would continue on with Mubarak's policies toward Israel?

ElBaradei: No. Something the Israelis also need to grasp is that it's impossible to make peace with a single man. At the moment, they have a peace treaty with Mubarak, but not one with the Egyptian people. The Israelis should understand that it is in their long-term interest to have a democratic Egypt as a neighbor, and that it is prudent to acknowledge the legitimate interests of the Palestinians and to grant them their own state."

SPIEGEL: What should a new president change about Egypt's relationship with Israel? Would you go to Israel to meet with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's hard-line prime minister?

ElBaradei: I have already made earlier trips to Israel. But, when it comes to politics, I'm always much more concerned with the substance than the form. Of course conditions have to be made better for the people in the Gaza Strip, and the blockade needs to be lifted immediately. I always tell my Israeli friends: 'It's also in your security interest to treat the Palestinians as partners, to grant them rights and to not humiliate them.'

SPIEGEL: And, last but not least, do you think you will be Egypt's next president?

ElBaradei: That's not what I'm striving for. But if people's expectations are directed toward me, I will also not disappoint them. I would like to remain independent and maintain a certain distance -- both from the Muslim Brotherhood and US policy.

Interview conducted by Erich Follath; translated from the German by Josh Ward

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

John McCain on the Dangers of the Muslim Brotherhood


'They Should Be Excluded from any Transition Government'

02/06/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

In a SPIEGEL interview, Republican senator and former presidential candidate John McCain, 74, discusses the United States' Middle East policies and his fears of a role for the Muslim Brotherhood in the country's transition to democracy.

SPIEGEL: Did it take the Obama administration too long to find a clear position on Egypt?

John McCain: I don't think that I can second guess the president. While I wanted to be, I am not in his position, I don't have all the information and background that he has. All I can say is that I think the president has handled the issue well so far.

SPIEGEL: Many policymakers in Washington say they want to "end up on the right side of history" with regards to Egypt. and not on the wrong side as they were in Iran after the fall of the Shah. How can that be achieved?

McCain: There's very little doubt that for a long time we have not been on the right side of history in the Middle East, in that we have not recognized that these same ambitions for democracy and freedom are held by people everywhere in the world. The president has come a long way since 2009 when he refused to condemn the Iranian government when the demonstrations were taking place in Tehran and refused to support the demonstrators then. I think that was one of the biggest national security mistakes so far of his presidency.

SPIEGEL: You have called for open elections in Egypt. Should that happen quickly or could elections lead to chaos if organized prematurely?

McCain: The process that I would like to see and I think a lot of other people would like to see is Hosni Mubarak stepping down and the army taking charge along with other democratic organizations within Egypt -- not the Muslim Brotherhood. A transition government should then launch a campaign for fair, open and democratic elections that take place in September.

SPIEGEL: How optimistic are you that the Arab world is capable of establishing democratic institutions?

McCain: I think they are very capable, especially Egypt, the center culturally and politically of the Middle East. But I would add that the longer that these demonstrators are repressed, the more likely the scenario that the issue is hijacked by radical Islamic elements.

SPIEGEL: In 2006, the US pushed for elections in Gaza -- a move which ultimately brought Hamas into power.

McCain: In Gaza, people basically had only two choices: Fatah, which was a failed and corrupt organization, or Hamas, which as we know was supported by the Muslim Brotherhood. Instead what they should have had was a multi-party campaign with lots of candidates and lots of choices for the people of Gaza.

SPIEGEL: Many people are drawing comparisons between the situation in Cairo and the Iranian revolution of 1979 which led to the country's takeover by religious leaders. If you look at elements like the Muslim Brotherhood, how likely is a similar outcome in Egypt?

McCain: I am deeply, deeply concerned that this whole movement could be hijacked by radical Islamic extremists.

SPIEGEL: What is your assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood?

McCain: I think they are a radical group that first of all supports Sharia law; that in itself is anti-democratic -- at least as far as women are concerned. They have been involved with other terrorist organizations and I believe that they should be specifically excluded from any transition government.

SPIEGEL: Are you afraid that someone like Mohamed ElBaradei is instrumentalized by the Muslim Brotherhood?

McCain: Oh yeah, I think it's very clear that the scenario is very likely he could be their front man. He has no following nor political influence in Egypt. After all, he has lived outside of Egypt for most of his life.

SPIEGEL: A certain role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the transition process in Egypt seems acceptable to the Obama White House. Does that concern you?

McCain: It concerns me so much that I am unalterably opposed to it. I think it would be a mistake of historic proportions.

SPIEGEL: Could the events in Egypt lead to a domino effect in other countries of the region?

McCain: I don't think there's any doubt that this movement is spreading to other countries, but I think that to say that every country would have the same events and every country would have the same result lacks in knowledge of the differences in these different nations in the Middle East. In other words, I don't think Yemen is Egypt and I don't think Egypt is Jordan. Each has their own unique kinds of challenges but the fundamentals, the desire for democracy and freely elected governments is a common thread throughout.

SPIEGEL: Some people argue that the developments in Egypt mark the end of realpolitik.


McCain: I think that there is always an element of realpolitik that has to be present in the conduct of any nation's national security affairs. But, at the same time, we have to also have a balance between realpolitik and Wilsonian principles of freedom and democracy and human rights. And maintaining that balance is the greatest challenge that we in the West, including the Federal Republic of Germany, have to face because it's many times a very difficult decision-making process. If it was strictly realpolitik we wouldn't have a problem, things would be easy. But we are also advocates for the fundamental principles that all of us are endowed with certain inalienable rights.

SPIEGEL: Do you find it a little ironic that in a way we are seeing results now that the previous Bush administration was shooting for with its "freedom agenda"?

McCain: I think so, but my job right now is to work with President Obama in every way that I can to see that this incredibly difficult crisis comes to a successful conclusion.

Interview conducted by Marc Hujer and Gregor Peter Schmitz

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

Will Egypt's government now strike a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood?

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / February 6, 2011
The Christian Sciende Monitor


LINK

The Muslim Brotherhood said it was entering direct talks with the government Sunday. Democracy protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square remain suspicious of any compromise deals that may be promised by Vice President Omar Suleiman.

Cairo

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, slow to join pro-democracy protests and wary of a government that has banned it for 56 years, says it will enter direct talks with President Hosni Mubarak's government. The move is a sharp reversal of course for Egypt's best-organized opposition group, which two days ago insisted it wouldn't negotiate with the government until Mr. Mubarak steps down.

The decision also bolsters the likelihood of a compromise end to the political impasse. But any deal that leaves major elements of the current government in place will severely disappoint both secular and Islamist protesters who have flooded Cairo's central Tahrir Square in recent days to call for Mubarak's immediate departure.

Many Egyptian activists also say they worry that the Brotherhood's elderly leadership, who have become increasingly inward-looking in the face of government repression, are no match for the old-guard members of Mubarak's regime, who will use them to split the forces pushing for democratic change and avoid meaningful reform.

"This is a bad idea," says Ibrahim al-Houdaiby, a former Brotherhood youth leader who left the group two years ago. "The compromises are going to be too great."

Compromise talks begin

Al Arabiya reported in the early afternoon in Cairo that talks had begun between Vice President Omar Suleiman, Brotherhood representatives, Coptic Christian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, and a representative of Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian Nobel Prizewinner who has been pushing for democratic reform in Egypt in the past two years. They are presenting themselves as a broad front representing multiple streams in Egyptian society, but ground-level democracy demonstrators are suspicious that a group of elites without true grass-roots support is about to cut a back-room deal.

"The protesters know that if we withdraw before our demands are met, the government will hunt us down and try to crush us," says Khaled Abol Naga, an Egyptian film star who has joined the protests. "There is no trust of anyone from the regime, not just Mubarak."

Vice President Suleiman's key role

Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton strongly supported Vice President Suleiman -- a former general and longtime intelligence chief until Mubarak named him vice president in late January -- as the focal point for efforts to open up Egyptian politics. Mubarak appears to have handed off all responsibility for dealing with the protesters to Suleiman and other members of the military establishment.

Suleiman is a devout Muslim himself and is also deeply suspicious of the Brotherhood, a longtime enemy of the Mubarak government. Though the movement eschewed violence decades ago and has hewed to a gradualist course, men like Suleiman -- not to mention much of the foreign policy establishment in the US and Europe -- view them as a threat to stability.

Suleiman's place in Egyptian politics was secured in 1995, when he insisted that Mubarak use an armored car on a trip to the Sudan. While both men drove through the streets of Khartoum, they were ambushed by members of the Gamaa Islamiyah, a group of violent Islamists that split from the Brotherhood in disgust over the group's refusal to use violence in the 1970s. Mubarak credited Suleiman's advice, and the two men spent the next decade working in concert to wipe out the group.

Now he's at the forefront of the old military elite, which appears likely to shed Mubarak in elections scheduled for September but do what it can to maintain its position (the 82-year-old Mubarak promised last week that he won't run).

Muslim Brotherhood makes its move

Blake Hounshell, the managing editor of Foreign Policy magazine who's in Cairo following the uprising, says it appears the Brothers are turning their back on the protesters at Tahrir and attending to their own interests.

"They see they're losing leverage, and they want to get the best deal possible they can, now," he says. "The longer this thing draws out, the more it goes against the protesters, and the Brotherhood knows that."

At Tahrir Square, which has been turned into an encampment for democracy protesters over the past 12 days, many today were suspicious of the Brotherhood.The group is clearly popular in Egypt, but without free elections or decent polling, their true support is impossible to gauge. Many Egyptians argue that the group wouldn't be able to take clear power in fair elections, and may see a deal now that allows it to legally participate in politics and give it a voice in some political reforms as its best chance at short-term influence.

"The Muslim Brotherhood wants to steal the success of this revolution. They are welcome to play a part, but they're not the leaders," says Samie el-Shafie, a woman who holds a senior position at the Ministry of Health and has just joined the protests at Tahrir Square. "They don't represent us."

-- Ann Hermes contributed to this report.

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