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Election 2015

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Harrigan said:
I guess it depends on what the information is.  The consequences of breaching that "agreement", which seems designed specifically to cover up stuff, isn't all that dire (termination of employment, pay back termination pay, etc).  I don't imagine Soudas is too worried about that.  If the "goods" he has is a legal issue, he is covered there too.  I think what the Liberals need to be concerned about is that this guy is a mercenary.  He is willing to backstab the CPC, so they are forewarned about what he would be willing to do to them should he feel wronged. 

The flipside to the "Let's Make a Deal" argument, though, is that unless he has given them a taste of what he knows, they wouldn't even be considering it. 

However, my money is on donkey!  ;D

Harrigan

P.S. I think the big winner in all this (again) is the NDP, who have absolutely nothing to lose no matter what way the vote goes.


I agree; I think Mr Soudas is playing a very, very risky game. In fact, I suspect all the blood left his brains for a while. Ms Adams is, quite simply, a really second rate politician and he, who had a much higher value, has thrown it all away for a bit of well used political trash. My guess is that no one will trust him with anything of import and even the Liberals will be deeply suspicious of anything he gives them. He has, as we used to say, blotted his copybook and there is no way, ever, to correct that.
 
The Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson gives a good overview of the NDP's relationship with supply management in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-eternal-ndp-struggle-with-free-trade/article25663593/
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The eternal NDP struggle with free trade

JEFFREY SIMPSON
BRUNNER, ONT. — The Globe and Mail

Published Saturday, Jul. 25, 2015

Short of hugging and kissing a cow on the nose, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair could not have embraced more ardently Canada’s supply-management system for dairy, eggs and poultry this week.

Visiting the Slits family farm in Brunner, Ont., about 15 kilometres north of Stratford, Mr. Mulcair committed his party to an all-out defence of supply management, which some countries want diluted as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations.

Twice, the NDP Leader was asked: As prime minister, would you sign a TPP agreement if it meant concessions on supply management? Twice, Mr. Mulcair dodged a direct answer, then launched into a vigorous defence of the system of quotas and price-and-supply fixing that underpins supply management. As prime minister, he declared, he would “defend supply management in its entirety.”

Yes, he admitted, supply management with its stratospheric tariffs and limited import quotas means consumers pay a “premium” (i.e. higher prices), but they get “food sovereignty,” family farms and stable markets. And, by the way, Americans should not be giving lessons to anybody, considering their agricultural subsidies.

Mr. Mulcair posed for pictures next to a poster that said: “Proud Supporters of 100 per cent Canadian Milk: Dairy Farmers of Canada.” He toured the Slits family operation. He fed and petted a two-day-old calf. Lest any dairy, chicken, turkey or egg producer misunderstand, he is with them.

It is unlikely Mr. Mulcair could hug a cow while signing Canada up for the TPP. Negotiations with 11 other countries for this major agreement head into the final lap in Hawaii next week.

For Canada to reject the TPP, or be forbidden to join because of supply management, would deprive the overall economy of growth prospects for the sake of one industry’s protection. Apparently, that is the trade-off Mr. Mulcair would make. At least while in opposition.

The TPP would not dismantle supply management, but rather force moderations to the system by more quota access, lower tariffs or both. That is what the Harper government will be trying to achieve. Even if successful in this rear-guard defence, the government will be accused of everything short of infanticide by supply-management devotees if it yields very much.

Long before the NDP won any seats in Quebec, where the dairy farmers are unionized, politically powerful, cacophonously vocal and well financed, thereby holding politicians of every stripe in their thrall, the federal NDP endorsed supply management.

The party did not need to do so, politically speaking. NDP constituents were largely urban. Many were low-income. Since poor families spend more of their incomes than richer families on basic necessities such as food, including supply-managed products, it made no economic sense to defend high producer prices to the detriment of low-income consumers.

So why did the NDP do it? The party had little skin in the game, being weak in rural ridings of Ontario and Quebec. Some of their voters were getting hosed by the high prices.

Supply management represented, and presumably still represents, what the party likes intellectually: something other than the full free market, a system of individual producers shielded by controls and quotas with an important role for government, in this case through high tariffs and legislation authorizing the whole scheme.

The idea of growing “big” producers capable of exporting ran against the party’s nervousness about “big” corporations, “big” business, corporatization and international free trade. Alas for the party, much global trade is conducted these days between “big” entities that can access foreign markets.

In trade policy, the NDP prefers what it calls “managed trade” (whatever that means), because free trade is too unpredictable: winners, yes, but too much risk, too many losers, too much corporate power. This kind of philosophy rests uneasily with today’s international trade agreements, which is why Mr. Mulcair is trying to straddle different views within his party.

Unions and the party’s left generally oppose free-trade deals; others within the party believe trade deals are useful, on balance, to grow the economy. The struggle between protectionism and trade liberalization remains just below the surface in the NDP.

Mr. Mulcair says he favours transpacific free trade, but not at the expense of supply management. He says he favours the Canada-European Union free-trade and investment deal, but he must see the detailed text, which is a form of punting a definitive proclamation. So he is all for the deal, maybe, perhaps, likely, we’ll see.


If M Mulcair becomes prime minister and if he (as opposed to his party) continues on a pro-supply management course then it will be very bad news for Canada.

My guess ~ based on nothing more that "gut feel" ~ is that he will abandon the dairy farmers, as he should, and join the TPP.

Supply management is a monumentally stupid policy on every possible level.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
My guess ~ based on nothing more that "gut feel" ~ is that he will abandon the dairy farmers, as he should, and join the TPP.

Given that a large portion of those same dairy farmers are in Quebec, will that have any bearing on the decision?
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And here is a new Predictinator from David Akin:

10368905_1178566055503069_1851463986598054482_o.jpg


The NDP's peak is holding, even growing, but both M Mulcair and M Trudeau are eating away at the CPC's support.


David Akin has posted a new Predictinator:

f7c3017380f1d7c6cdcee02effee198e.jpg


The NDP have been leading for some time, now, at just the right moment for the CPC, momentum might be shifting.
 
I looked back at David Akin's "Predictinators" since Feb. I'm assuming his methodology is fairly consistent. Here's what I found:

There's only one constant: a continuous Liberal decline.

(I'm sorry I cannot get !@#$%^& Excel to do the X axis correctly: the dates are 13 Feb, 8 Mar, 21 Mar, 14 May, 16 May, 3 Jul and 26 Jul ~ not monthly as shown)
 
The divide between M Trudeau's team and the Liberal grassroots just got a little bit deeper. Eve Adams lost the LPC nomination (Eglinton-Lawrence) to Toronto lawyer Marco Mendicino. Mr Mendicino will be a tougher opponent for Joe Oliver than Ms Adams would have been, so it's a mixed blessing for the CPC.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
The divide between M Trudeau's team and the Liberal grassroots just got a little bit deeper. Eve Adams lost the LPC nomination (Eglinton-Lawrence) to Toronto lawyer Marco Mendicino. Mr Mendicino will be a tougher opponent for Joe Oliver than Ms Adams would have been, so it's a mixed blessing for the CPC.

What does it say for Mr Trudeau that his hand (cherry) picked candidate lost?
 
ModlrMike said:
What does it say for Mr Trudeau that his hand (cherry) picked candidate lost?


See my civil war comments earlier. Liberals have been in such a state since about 1967 when Pierre Trudeau "dissed" Lester B Pearson when the latter resigned, and M Trudeau was elected party leader and, therefore, prime minister. The divisions were, however, deeper and were related to policy. Relations between Prime Minister Trudeau and his Finance Minister, John Turner were as frosty as those between Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin. There were (I suspect still are) divisions between the Liberal left ~ Messers Dion and Trudeau, and the Liberal right, still led by John Manley, I think.
 
ModlrMike said:
What does it say for Mr Trudeau that his hand (cherry) picked candidate lost?

The fact that he tried to force her on Eglinton-Lawrence riding after saying how he wouldn't parachute candidates in is going to haunt him....another example of "open mouth, insert foot"
 
E.R. Campbell said:
David Akin has posted a new Predictinator:

f7c3017380f1d7c6cdcee02effee198e.jpg


The NDP have been leading for some time, now, at just the right moment for the CPC, momentum might be shifting.

It is going to be an interesting horse race down the back stretch when it comes to that part of the circus act to come.
 
I wonder if in desperation the Blue Liberals make a break for it and either implicit or explicitly move in support of the CPC? That would seem to be the best COA to satisfy the power lust of the Liberals ("we support the sitting government so we can extract some payment from them") as well as to ensure the Liberal brand does not become irrelevant since they are in the catbird seat and capable of bringing the government down at the time and place of their choosing.

Of course it would mean essentially ditching the Young Dauphin and the "Orange" Liberals and rebuilding a new liberal party virtually from scratch, and probably abandoning the field for at least two more election cycles while they build the machinery, find the volunteers and workers and develop and communicate a real version of "Liberalism" to attract the voting public.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The divide between M Trudeau's team and the Liberal grassroots just got a little bit deeper. Eve Adams lost the LPC nomination (Eglinton-Lawrence) to Toronto lawyer Marco Mendicino. Mr Mendicino will be a tougher opponent for Joe Oliver than Ms Adams would have been, so it's a mixed blessing for the CPC.

Sic Semper Ignoramus....
 
Thucydides said:
I wonder if in desperation the Blue Liberals make a break for it and either implicit or explicitly move in support of the CPC? That would seem to be the best COA to satisfy the power lust of the Liberals ("we support the sitting government so we can extract some payment from them") as well as to ensure the Liberal brand does not become irrelevant since they are in the catbird seat and capable of bringing the government down at the time and place of their choosing.

Of course it would mean essentially ditching the Young Dauphin and the "Orange" Liberals and rebuilding a new liberal party virtually from scratch, and probably abandoning the field for at least two more election cycles while they build the machinery, find the volunteers and workers and develop and communicate a real version of "Liberalism" to attract the voting public.


The only situation in which I can imagine that happening is if there is a large Conservative majority, say 160+ of the 170 seats needed, but M Mulcair, with, say, 125 seats, supported by M Duceppe (8 seats) and Ms May (2), decides to make a grab for power and asks M Trudeau (40 seats) to join . M Trudeau then fails to consult his caucus widely enough or deeply enough, and when he decides, "Yes, I'll join" and then announces his decision to the LPC caucus five to even ten of his members cannot stomach the decision and jump ship and promise to vote with the CPC on the confidence motion. A few of that small number might, indeed, move to the CPC but I think it is more likely that the rebel leaders would select one of their own to make a bid for the leadership of the LPC.

(Clear as mud but covers the ground?)
 
The smartest thing for Mr.Trudeau to do now is to graciously accept the results in Eglinton-Lawrence and move on (probably the best result for them anyway).  A Liberal optimist will no doubt point out (probably on Power & Politics or some such..) that the charges of Liberals leadership overrunning local riding associations wouldn't seem to be accurate, though that won't stop CPC supporters from continuing to claim otherwise.

Personally, I think the Liberals dodged a bullet there. 

As much as many of us would like to see it, I don't think there is a "Civil War" inside the Liberals any more than there was when Rob Anders was defeated in his nomination. 

Harrigan
 
Harrigan said:
The smartest thing for Mr.Trudeau to do now is to graciously accept the results in Eglinton-Lawrence and move on (probably the best result for them anyway).  A Liberal optimist will no doubt point out (probably on Power & Politics or some such..) that the charges of Liberals leadership overrunning local riding associations wouldn't seem to be accurate, though that won't stop CPC supporters from continuing to claim otherwise.

Personally, I think the Liberals dodged a bullet there. 

As much as many of us would like to see it, I don't think there is a "Civil War" inside the Liberals any more than there was when Rob Anders was defeated in his nomination. 

Harrigan


Then I think your dreaming in technicolour (or smoking something suspicious). There have, for the past 50 years, been only two constants in the Liberal Party of Canada:

    1. An absolute focus on gaining and holding power; and

    2. A series of brutal, sometimes fatal (as in 1958, 1979, 1984, 2006, 2008 and 2011) civil wars.

The problem arose in 1960, at the Kingston Conference which, for the very first time, pushed the party off dead centre and towards the ideological territory occupied by the CCF (as the NDP still was, way back then). Prime Minister Pearson also made bold (although, in my view, mistaken) steps towards solving the ever present national unity problem, first by recruiting the "three wise men" (Marchand, Pelletier and Trudeau) from Quebec's labour-left-intellectual elites, and second by establishing (and, much worse, following through on) the Laurendeau-Dunton Commission (the The Royal Commission on Bilingualism and Biculturalism). (Overall, I think Pearson made things markedly worse.) Mike Pearson empowered the Liberal Party's previously small and weak left wing ... Pierre Trudeau, a CCF member throughout the 1950s, moved the party out of the real centre and firmly into the centre-left (the NDP still, then (1960s, '70s and '80s) 'owned' the left of centre and left in Canadian politics. Pearson and Trudeau did two things: they gave the PC party some 'room' on the political centre and they opened a two front war which the LPC didn't need. (Previously the NDP (like Social Credit) had been, largely, irrelevant; Prime Minister Mackenzie-King described them, largely correctly in 1944, as "Liberals in a hurry;" but, by moving into their territory Pearson's and Trudeau's Liberals turned them from a harmless opponent and, even, occasional supporter, into a real political enemy.

The Liberals were, traditionally, the party of Big Business, the Big Banks and, although unstated until Buzz Hargrove's time, in the 1990s, Big Labour; the Progressive Conservatives had been, by and large, the party of small town Canada, of "Main Street," not Bay Street or St. James Street. The Liberals' lurch left in the 1960s gave the Tories some additional 'room' in and support from Canada's corporate board rooms.

The first battles were between Mike Pearson and his new 'apprentice' Pierre Trudeau ~ over issues like nuclear weapons. (Pearson wanted to exploit Diefenbaker's dithering and pull the American Democrats on to the Liberals' side; Trudeau was a bit of a pacifist, anti-nuclear weapons and a very strong anti-nationalist and he saw the US military as the most powerful of all nationalist forces.) The battle was rejoined between Pierre Trudeau and his finance minister John Turner, largely over the fiscal sustainability of Trudeau's entitlement programmes. John Turner and Trudeau's chosen successor, Jean Chrétien, continued the battle in the 1980s. Prime Minister Chrétien and Paul Martin waged their own, less ideological, civil war in the 1990s and 2000s. Now is is the "Manley Liberals" vs. the Liberal Left.

It has been a non-stop civil war and it shows no signs of cooling off.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
The divide between M Trudeau's team and the Liberal grassroots just got a little bit deeper. Eve Adams lost the LPC nomination (Eglinton-Lawrence) to Toronto lawyer Marco Mendicino. Mr Mendicino will be a tougher opponent for Joe Oliver than Ms Adams would have been, so it's a mixed blessing for the CPC.

There's a longish, somewhat nasty column by Tim Harper in the Toronto Star that dissects the Eve Adams loss and casts further (Liberal insider) doubt on M Trudeau's judgment and leadership.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Then I think your dreaming in technicolour (or smoking something suspicious). There have, for the past 50 years, been only two constants in the Liberal Party of Canada:

    1. An absolute focus on gaining and holding power; and

    2. A series of brutal, sometimes fatal (as in 1958, 1979, 1984, 2006, 2008 and 2011) civil wars.

The problem arose in 1960, at the Kingston Conference which, for the very first time, pushed the party off dead centre and towards the ideological territory occupied by the CCF (as the NDP still was, way back then). Prime Minister Pearson also made bold (although, in my view, mistaken) steps towards solving the ever present national unity problem, first by recruiting the "three wise men" (Marchand, Pelletier and Trudeau) from Quebec's labour-left-intellectual elites, and second by establishing (and, much worse, following through on) the Laurendeau-Dunton Commission (the The Royal Commission on Bilingualism and Biculturalism). (Overall, I think Pearson made things markedly worse.) Mike Pearson empowered the Liberal Party's previously small and weak left wing ... Pierre Trudeau, a CCF member throughout the 1950s, moved the party out of the real centre and firmly into the centre-left (the NDP still, then (1960s, '70s and '80s) 'owned' the left of centre and left in Canadian politics. Pearson and Trudeau did two things: they gave the PC party some 'room' on the political centre and they opened a two front war which the LPC didn't need. (Previously the NDP (like Social Credit) had been, largely, irrelevant; Prime Minister Mackenzie-King described them, largely correctly in 1944, as "Liberals in a hurry;" but, by moving into their territory Pearson's and Trudeau's Liberals turned them from a harmless opponent and, even, occasional supporter, into a real political enemy.

The Liberals were, traditionally, the party of Big Business, the Big Banks and, although unstated until Buzz Hargrove's time, in the 1990s, Big Labour; the Progressive Conservatives had been, by and large, the party of small town Canada, of "Main Street," not Bay Street or St. James Street. The Liberals' lurch left in the 1960s gave the Tories some additional 'room' in and support from Canada's corporate board rooms.

The first battles were between Mike Pearson and his new 'apprentice' Pierre Trudeau ~ over issues like nuclear weapons. (Pearson wanted to exploit Diefenbaker's dithering and pull the American Democrats on to the Liberals' side; Trudeau was a bit of a pacifist, anti-nuclear weapons and a very strong anti-nationalist and he saw the US military as the most powerful of all nationalist forces.) The battle was rejoined between Pierre Trudeau and his finance minister John Turner, largely over the fiscal sustainability of Trudeau's entitlement programmes. John Turner and Trudeau's chosen successor, Jean Chrétien, continued the battle in the 1980s. Prime Minister Chrétien and Paul Martin waged their own, less ideological, civil war in the 1990s and 2000s. Now is is the "Manley Liberals" vs. the Liberal Left.

It has been a non-stop civil war and it shows no signs of cooling off.

I agree with all that you have wrote, except for your conclusions. 

If that is your definition of "civil war", then sure, the Liberals have been at it since 1960.  However, they have also been in power for 34 of those 55 years (and 22 of the 25 years before that), so the "civil war" has not been damaging in the long run.  What you have described is the normal deliberations between the right and left sides of a centrist party, not a crushing internal self-destruction (as much as most on this board would like that).  In fact, it is not unlike the normal deliberations between the ex-Reform and ex-PC sides of the current CPC.  It is true that Harper has managed to crush most public internal party opposition, but it would be false to suggest that all within the CPC is of one mind and agrees 100% with all policies, all the time.  There are different shades of blue, as there always have been.

That is simply a normal process that occurs within all parties (NDP as well).

I see this as a minor skirmish within the Liberal Party that is much less than the "harbinger of death" that you ascribe to it, particularly as the ultimate decision that they made was the correct one.  It looks very similar to the Anders vs Liepert nomination in Calgary, where the Kenney-supported candidate (Anders), was beaten by the challenger candidate (Liepert), also a correct decision.  Different parts of the CPC supported different candidates, but it was certainly no "civil war" within the CPC.

Liberals and Conservatives have had internal dissention in their ranks for decades (remember Dalton Camp?), and none of them have been fatal for the party (other than perhaps the early 90's PC's). 

As for your first point: 

1. An absolute focus on gaining and holding power

Yes, this is absolutely true of the Liberals, and it is absolutely true of the CPC as well.  Ever was it thus. 

Harrigan
 
Harrigan said:
As for your first point: 

Yes, this is absolutely true of the Liberals, and it is absolutely true of the CPC as well.  Ever was it thus. 

Harrigan

But only one of those has the hubris to call themselves the "Natural Governing Party". I think this conceit is also a factor in their civil war. There's a faction that can't accept that there will be periods when they're out of power, and that time should be spend on rejuvenation and rebuilding.
 
The term "Natural Governing Party" was not self-generated; I believe it was Alan Fotheringham who coined the phrase.
 
dapaterson said:
The term "Natural Governing Party" was not self-generated; I believe it was Alan Fotheringham who coined the phrase.

Could be, but they and the chattering classes came to believe it. Years and years ago I heard a political science professor from Queens (I think) expound at length on why the PCs could never win an election. His reason was something like that there were too many different factions in the PC party to ever be able to cooperate and form a united front.

The Liberals really had no compelling philosophy except to retain power at all costs.
 
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