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Election 2015

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E.R. Campbell said:
I believe that reducing revenue was the "purpose" and the "policy option," how principled it was is a matter of opinion.

Many commentators have said, and I agree, that Prime Minister Harper wants to make Canada into a more conservative (liberal, by my definition) place and one of the ways that I think he is doing that is by making it harder and harder and harder to spend on new programmes. My sense of the prime minister is that he is a fiscal hawk but a political pragmatist: he knows he cannot make deep cuts to social programmes, even if, in his heart and mind, he knows they are necessary, and still get reelected. What he can do is hamstring future governments, of whatever stripe, by making it harder and harder to raise revenue. Is that principled? No ... not unless one is also a committed fiscal hawk. Even some fiscal hawks think it's a but unfair to tie the hands of future governments.

Their hands would only be tied if they chose not to (grow a pair and) raise the GST/HST back up to a level that would actually make all the social programs they want to provide, affordable (i.e. still run a blanched budget).  The GST/HST at higher levels as a slightly imperfect higher VAT is fiscally workable, but as others point out, political dynamite...no, make that political nitroglycerine.

IMO, the GST/HST should be two points higher and we should be working off debt as the main focus, followed by keeping all our warm fuzzy socialist support programs running as a secondary (NOT primary) line of Govt operations.

:2c:

G2G
 
It seems most governments/commentators forget about the debt and are happy with just achieving a balanced/surplus budget, what like once every 8 years?

While there is large amount of fat in government operations I have found the same to be true with every large institution i have worked with. The removal of unnecessary programs is only a first start and there will undoubtedly be disagreements on what are unnecessary.

In Ontario very soon the education and health ministries will soon approach 90% of the budget you could cut everything else and still not have an impact.

Plus you have to add in the fact that there is unlikely to be the management skill in place to accomplish anything. I was once asked my opinion on my operations budget. I responded pretty good but how am I supposed to operate without fuel and hydro. This was in private industry I think this level of incompetence is fairly common

 
suffolkowner said:
It would have been far better in my mind to cut income taxes rather than the GST.  Its done now unless reversed by another government or the difference taken up by the provinces. Governments are going to have to find another source of revenue than income taxes reduce spending as the number of people making enough to generate a net benefit to the treasury is under downward pressure.

FTFY
 
Good2Golf said:
Their hands would only be tied if they chose not to (grow a pair and) raise the GST/HST back up to a level that would actually make all the social programs they want to provide, affordable (i.e. still run a blanched budget).  The GST/HST at higher levels as a slightly imperfect higher VAT is fiscally workable, but as others point out, political dynamite...no, make that political nitroglycerine.

IMO, the GST/HST should be two points higher and we should be working off debt as the main focus, followed by keeping all our warm fuzzy socialist support programs running as a secondary (NOT primary) line of Govt operations.

:2c:

G2G


"All the social programmes they" (our political leaders, civic, provincial and national) "want to provide" are all the existing social programmes and many, many more. No politician, not even Stephen Harper, maybe especially not Stephen Harper wants to tell Canadians that they cannot have whatever their little hearts (and much, much smaller brains) desire.

Suffolkowner noted that "In Ontario very soon the education and health ministries will soon approach 90% of the budget ..." How long can that be sustained? What happens when infrastructure or public safety or, much more likely and vastly more important, the interest on the public debt needs more and more money? Will the education budget be cut? Will Ontario decide to reform health care? Not f'ing likely! Taxes will go up, and Up, and UP ... until Ontarians finally decide "enough is enough" and we do another, bigger, better (harsher) Mike Harris.

The fact is that ALL of our social programmes, in fact ALL of our programmes of all types, have "cheering sections" that will threaten to punish politicians for trying to be fiscally responsible. Canadians don't want fiscal responsibility if it takes so much as a penny out of their pockets. And, of course: "We get the governments we deserve, don't we?"
 
Looking at all the polls, the one thing which is very clear is the LPC is stuck in third place, and trending downward. I expect a pretty ugly campaign as the supporters of the "Laurentian Consensus" fight desperately to keep what positions of power and influence they have, even as economics and demographics flow westward and the New Canada (everything west of the Ottawa river) grows and matures.
 
Hope you realize Thuc., that everything West of the Ottawa river includes 100% of Ontario. I thought that was where the "Laurentian Elites" you keep talking about mostly reside. In your scenario, Ontario represents 55% of the "vote" in itself.

By the way everybody: Get ready: He's Baaaack! Very strong rumours around in Montreal today that Gilles Duceppe will come back immediately as leader of the Bloc Quebecois to fight the next election, as all their internal polling show him to be the only one that could get the BQ's fortunes turned around.
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
By the way everybody: Get ready: He's Baaaack! Very strong rumours around in Montreal today that Gilles Duceppe will come back immediately as leader of the Bloc Quebecois to fight the next election, as all their internal polling show him to be the only one that could get the BQ's fortunes turned around.

CBC article here.

What this means for the NDP in Quebec could be interesting, actually it might benifit the Conservatives a bit as they can split the left vote.  I personally think the Gilles will be smashed again, as Quebec voted NDP not necessarily for Jack but also because of the West-Ontario deal that cut them out of the national conversation.  Quebecers are not happy being on the outside looking in and had no power in gov't for the first time, probably ever.  The younger generation of voters don't care about the Bloc as its "their parents issue", and just want to get on with it.

The Bloc also have no money. It's going to be difficult to get them going.  There was also a lot of anger at them last time I was in Quebec, their arrogance and ignorance of the real issues in Quebec made people vote NDP.  The attitude I heard more than once was "Duccepe told us that to vote NDP was idiotic, well I guess I'm a idiot then".
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
Hope you realize Thuc., that everything West of the Ottawa river includes 100% of Ontario. I thought that was where the "Laurentian Elites" you keep talking about mostly reside. In your scenario, Ontario represents 55% of the "vote" in itself.

By the way everybody: Get ready: He's Baaaack! Very strong rumours around in Montreal today that Gilles Duceppe will come back immediately as leader of the Bloc Quebecois to fight the next election, as all their internal polling show him to be the only one that could get the BQ's fortunes turned around.

True, "New Canada" includes Ontario (great thinkers from Preston Manning, who coined the term, to our own ERC all agree on this). The "Laurentian Elites" generally were the people who saw the Montreal-Toronto corridor as the economic center of Canada and valued the ability to capture seats in Ontario and Quebec to gain and maintain power in Ottawa.

Today the ability to capture seats in Quebec is no longer as important, and  the economic landscape of Ontario has changed far beyond the "Industrial Heartland" model (a long standing trend which the McGuinty/Wynn Liberals ramped up to Warp Speed), so the conditions which supported the Laurentian Consensus are no longer present.

While the "Big Shift" sees a form of small "c" conservatism becoming the new normal for Canada, it may be possible the shifting equilibrium has created chaotic conditions which could lead to all kinds of unlikely outcomes (the "Orange Crush" of the last election is almost certainly one of the signs of the breakdown of the Laurentian Consensus model, and chaotic systems have outputs that are not linearly correlated with the inputs).
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Canadians don't want fiscal responsibility if it takes so much as a penny out of their pockets.

Former Alberta premier, Jim Prentice, was crucified when he said that taxpayers should look in the mirror to see the cause of over-spending.  Of course he was 100 % correct.  And we wonder why politicians don't tell the truth.
 
Thucydides

Everyone talks about reduced spending but I never hear what people are willing to give up. I am assuming most people here (including myself) are not overly excited about reducing the defence budget anymore than has already been done.
 
suffolkowner said:
Thucydides

Everyone talks about reduced spending but I never hear what people are willing to give up. I am assuming most people here (including myself) are not overly excited about reducing the defence budget anymore than has already been done.

E.R. Campbell said:
...

The fact is that ALL of our social programmes, in fact ALL of our programmes of all types, have "cheering sections" that will threaten to punish politicians for trying to be fiscally responsible. Canadians don't want fiscal responsibility if it takes so much as a penny out of their pockets. And, of course: "We get the governments we deserve, don't we?"
 
suffolkowner said:
Thucydides

Everyone talks about reduced spending but I never hear what people are willing to give up. I am assuming most people here (including myself) are not overly excited about reducing the defence budget anymore than has already been done.

At the federal level, I am willing to give up everything excluding the protection of life, liberty, and property, (so the military, police, and justice system) and *some* national parks / museums / etc (ones that wouldn't make sense belonging to the provinces)... All the corporate welfare, EI, healthcare, education subsidies, all the tax credits / etc that exist to arbitrarily support some people's life choices, etc, should be cut at the federal level along with spending. If the provinces want to raise their own revenue and run their own healthcare system or EI business, no problem, that's their call.
 
ballz said:
At the federal level, I am willing to give up everything excluding the protection of life, liberty, and property, (so the military, police, and justice system) and *some* national parks / museums / etc (ones that wouldn't make sense belonging to the provinces)... All the corporate welfare, EI, healthcare, education subsidies, all the tax credits / etc that exist to arbitrarily support some people's life choices, etc, should be cut at the federal level along with spending. If the provinces want to raise their own revenue and run their own healthcare system or EI business, no problem, that's their call.


My personal opinion: you left out one vital federal responsibility ~ maintaining a strong, stable, trusted economy. While the currency, per se, may be the BoC's responsibility, the economy is the responsibility of the elected government.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
My personal opinion: you left out one vital federal responsibility ~ maintaining a strong, stable, trusted economy. While the currency, per se, may be the BoC's responsibility, the economy is the responsibility of the elected government.

I respectfully disagree. I would have probably agreed with that as a fourth thing before reading "How an economy grows and why it crashes" by Peter Schiff. I recommend it for anybody.

I think monetary and fiscal policy are a charade. Our currency should be backed by something of value and left alone, and the only thing the government needs to do to help our economy is stay out of it (the best it can). Artificially low interest rates (only possible because our currency is literally just paper, backed by nothing, and only valuable as long as people continue to play with paper) encourage people and governments to take on debt, and not save. Couple this with our economy's addiction to stimulus, and we have a disaster waiting to happen, as it did in 2008 and will again.

Protectionism, another way the government "helps" the economy, no thanks. If someone is better at producing a product and wants to sell it to Canadians for dirt cheap, let them. While everyone is tempted to save a local business that can't compete with say, China, by protecting it with tariffs, they are really just dragging the economy down by 1. making prices higher than they need to be, therefore those who wish to be productive are hindered and 2. keeping a non-competitive business in business, tying up useful capital, time, and energy on a sunken ship instead of allowing it to reallocate to more fruitful ventures.

Besides, the federal government being limited to life liberty and property does not restrict the the *provinces* from being protectionist if they want to be. They can "stimulate" the economy if they want, just waste their own damn money doing so.

I can agree with certain regulations. I can see a role for the government to "write the rules" for all those wishing to play the game, but they need to make a fair set of rules and not pick and choose which companies they will help win or help stop from losing. The limit to these rules should be to protect Canadians. For example, health and safety aspects of food-handling to prevent one bad company from killing a lot of people. That's about as far as I'd agree with the government intervening in the economy.
 
ballz said:
At the federal level, I am willing to give up everything excluding the protection of life, liberty, and property, (so the military, police, and justice system) and *some* national parks / museums / etc (ones that wouldn't make sense belonging to the provinces)... All the corporate welfare, EI, healthcare, education subsidies, all the tax credits / etc that exist to arbitrarily support some people's life choices, etc, should be cut at the federal level along with spending. If the provinces want to raise their own revenue and run their own healthcare system or EI business, no problem, that's their call.
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The provinces don't really have the revenue access that the federal government has unless the federal government were to devolve them constitutionally. If it did that you could get rid of the military too since the federal government wouldn't have the revenue streams to fight a war anyways.

I'd fire 50% of the police right off the top. Glorified meter maids 90% the time .
 
Some of you may be old enough to remember this: the GST cuts and other revenue-trimming measures were, indirectly, prompted by the preceding Liberal government.  They started low-balling their surplus estimate at the start of each FY, and then at YE would announce a grab-bag of popular new spending to encourage voters to think happy thoughts about Liberals.  Others in Parliament felt the unpredicted extra surpluses (windfalls) should have been employed to further eliminate accumulated deficit (debt), to reduce taxes, or provide simple rebates back to taxpayers.  This cause/effect between one party's spending habits and another party's resolve to stop it was discussed at the time; it isn't a secret or imaginary relationship.  This is how we reached the situation many are complaining about.

So, a Lesson for those who are now complaining: if you can not or will not curb your self-serving abuses (or of those you tacitly support), someone may eventually curb them for you using whatever means are available - blunt and clumsy or not.  But the fault - the first cause - lies with the abusers.

(And: I agree that GST cuts are good politics and bad policy.  So, to the LPC and NDP and their supporters: commit to raising the tax, and to using surpluses only to retire debt.  Show some temperance, justice, fortitude, and wisdom.)

(And: I support the removal of chickensh!t little boutique tax credits.  But I more strongly support clear and simple transfers and expenditures which promote two-parent family formation by leaving money in the family and letting the family decide exactly where it is spent.)

Another couple of things some of you may remember: the amusing pie charts in the T1 package literature that showed 30%+ of revenues were required simply to pay debt servicing charges - money that wasn't available for program spending because politicians a decade earlier had been too cowardly to manage finances prudently; and, in the same tax packages, Tax Table B.

About that debt: at the end of FY 74/75, it stood at ~ $28B.  From FY 75/76 to FY 86/87 operating deficits were run to a sum of ~ $67B.  During the period of operating surpluses from FY 87/88 to 08/09, the sum of interest charges was ~ $871B.  (Nominal, not adjusted dollars, and the tables include a note that an accounting change between 83 and 84 means data before and after are not directly comparable.  But I am citing for effect, not pinpoint accuracy).  That's a lot of interest paid relative to principal spent.

Current debt charges per year stand at ~$28B.  Remember that next time someone from a party that likes to spend is complaining about resistance to spending another couple of billion - their bad habits are the reason they can't spend 10 times that much right now.
 
Interesting you should say that, Brad ... it matches something one of my online contacts posted today ...

         
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              ... which are words by which we should all aim to live, and vote.
 
suffolkowner said:
Thucydides

Everyone talks about reduced spending but I never hear what people are willing to give up. I am assuming most people here (including myself) are not overly excited about reducing the defence budget anymore than has already been done.

There is lots of fat to cut. I routinely receive spam emails telling me there are more than 500 government programs to provide grants and loans to small business. Why do we need 500 different programs to do essentially the same thing? Eliminating 499 sets of program directors, staffs, office budgets etc. is a pretty quick and dirty way to get started. Combing through the government and eliminating duplicate and overlapping programs and their staffs, office budgets and so on would save an unknown number of billions right there. Edward has noted many times there are hundreds of tiny offices in Ottawa who carry out obscure tasks which no one notices. If no one is noticing these jobs, maybe they are not very important. Getting rid of them would save another unknown, but probably significant amount of money.

I am still trying to track down the origin of this one, but I once heard that if the GoC were to close down departments and ministries which overlapped Provincial jurisdiction as outlined in the BNA, that would save @ $19 billion/year. Since the Provinces are already doing these things, it is hard to argue this is a "cut in services".

Transfers to the Provinces could be streamlined by defining what "services" are being equalized, then setting the amount based on the most efficient province for that service (for example, provinces with the highest standardized test scores would be looked at in terms of how much they spent per student. The one with the "optimum" outcome (i.e. scores well against Korean kids, but costs less per student than the other provinces) would set the amount other provinces receive for schooling). Ruthless cost comparisons for transfer payments could cut the costs by a considerable margin. Once again, who could complain because they are getting funded to the levels of the "best" provinces for schooling, health care etc.? (If the receiving Provinces are not getting the same results, then they now have incentive to change things for the better).

As for the idea the Government should be in charge of stabilizing the economy, I agree if you mean via passive means (Peace order and good government, stable and transparent administration of Laws and regulations, the "setting the table" argument). I disagree if you are talking about actrive measures (except in extreme events like war  or very large scale natural disasters like BC sliding into the ocean). My historical readings of the "Free Banking" era, prior to governments being able to really manipulate the economy through fiscal and monetary measures (no Federal Reserve, and the First and Second "Bank of America" had both been closed by the Congress) shows that economic dislocations like crashes, recessions and even depressions were of limited effect and duration. Contrast this with the state of affairs after the creation of the Federal Reserve. Niall Ferguson points out a similar state of affairs existed in England when the Bank of England's powers were more theoretical than real (much like the GG's reserve powers) in his book "The Great Degeneration".

While cumulative cuts on the order of $40-50 billion a year are great, one should note that it would still take over a decade to pay down the Federal debt at that rate, and the unfunded liabilities would take another decade + to cover. So if this was to be a serious plan, it would commit governments for the next generation, something I think would be virtually impossible to do.
 
Another Television personality in the Liberal fold, has difficulty answering detailed questions of union endorsement.

Federal Liberal candidate Seamus O’Regan picked up the endorsement of a labour union on Tuesday as he tries to unseat NDP MP Ryan Cleary in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl. But O’Regan was surprisingly unprepared to answer detailed questions about the legislation he’s campaigning against. NTV’s Katie Breen reports:

http://ntv.ca/seamus-oregan-unprepared-to-answer-detailed-questions-after-union-endorsement/
 
I watched a bit of the press conference with Gilles Duceppe making his comeback announcement today.  Is it just me, or does he remind you of Professor Severus Snape (albeit with grey hair) of the Harry Potter movies.  That makes me less able to take him seriously.

On a more serious note, I don't recall which polling firm it was on the radio, but the gist of the lead up to their sound bite (which sadly I couldn't stick around to hear fully) was polls are indicating that folks in general are starting to really see the possibility of a NDP government federally with the recent success in Alberta.  That, is somewhat worrying. 

Also, Mulcaire is making noise that he sees a good deal of support for the idea of axing the Senate.  A canny move on Tom's part if you ask me.  Many folks are sick to death, myself included, with the Senate and would not necessarily miss this load of freeloading bastards kicked to the curb.  Both things will be sources of votes to be mined by the dippers.
 
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