A pledge to retire could help Harper
Columnist Mark Sutcliffe
Published on: May 28, 2015
No matter what the outcome of the next federal election, there’s a strong possibility that this will be Stephen Harper’s last campaign as Conservative leader.
If Harper loses the election or wins only a slim minority, his fate will be determined. But even if he wins a majority or a substantial minority, a countdown of sorts will begin. With a victory, he will join an exclusive club: only four prime ministers have received four mandates from the Canadian people. Nothing is impossible, but no leader in Canadian history has won five straight elections.
Depending on the strength of his win and personal considerations about his future, Harper could end up serving anywhere from just over 10 to almost 14 years in office. At the outer edge of that range, he would achieve the second-longest uninterrupted term in Canadian history. Not bad for a man who many predicted would never become prime minister in the first place.
There’s no doubt Harper enjoys the job or he wouldn’t be running again. Very few leaders step down until they are forced to by reality or other threats. Most of them probably look back on the worst days in office as being more fulfilling than many of the best days afterward.
But even after a win, Harper would have to acknowledge that he would be pressing his luck to try for another term. So why not borrow a page from David Cameron (the British prime minister, not the Senators coach) and say right up front that this will be his last campaign?
Cameron announced early in the recent U.K. campaign that if he was re-elected he would serve a full five-year term (the next fixed election date in Britain is in 2020). “The job is half done,” Cameron told the BBC in March. “I want to finish the job.” But he said he would not run again for a third term. “There definitely comes a time when a fresh pair of eyes and fresh leadership would be good,” he said.
Harper is a polarizing figure, but he’s more experienced and, to some Canadians, a safer choice than Justin Trudeau. If he makes it clear that he’ll step aside before the next election, it could mitigate some inevitable voter fatigue and give comfort to undecided voters that they are not sustaining a never-ending dynasty by giving him a final mandate.
It’s clear the sentiment is one that even the Conservatives have considered. Their most recent attack ad cleverly acknowledges that voters are already thinking ahead to life after Harper. Regarding Trudeau’s lack of experience, one actor in the commercial says, “I’m not saying no forever. But not now.”
A self-imposed term limit would create similar dynamics to an incumbent U.S. president running for a final term. Unless there’s a compelling reason to throw someone out after four years, Americans often default to a second term with comfort that there’s no risk of the president developing a permanent stranglehold on power.
Most politicians don’t like to talk too early about retirement for fear of becoming a lame duck. And some strategists might argue that announcing an end date could backfire on Harper, with some voters deciding if he’s already thinking about leaving in a few years, they might as well make a change now.
But the current political landscape might be ideal for such an announcement. Despite the fact that the Conservatives have been in power almost a decade, Canadians are not yet forming a significant consensus around an alternative to Harper. Some undecided voters might put up with him a bit longer if they knew there was a fixed end date.
The next election will be about a wide range of issues, but leadership is always a major consideration for voters. Harper is often accused of being arrogant; talking about his future in finite terms would make him seem more fallible and less determined to hold on to power indefinitely. It can’t have escaped his attention that a similar promise helped produce for Cameron exactly what he seeks in October: a surprising majority.
