• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Election 2015

Status
Not open for further replies.
The "Old/New" Canada trope is alive and well because it is useful and because it does describe many elements of the current situation. The phrase was popularized by Preston Manning's book "The New Canada", and the thesis was reexamined and amplified In "The Big Shift" by Bricker and Ibbitson. Like most ideas of this type, there is a degree of simplification for the popular press (think of "The Clash of Civilizations" trope introduced by Huntington; his book is far richer and more nuanced than the popular idea).

Of course the idea of Canadian regionalism is hardly new, we can go to "The Two Solitudes", or even just look at various issues in our history caused by regionalism.
 
dapaterson said:
A coalition might slow the concentration of power in the PMO.  A subsequent majority would probably see regression to the mean, but from a transparency in governance perspective it might be good.

Absolutely.  That concentration is a cancer that is eating my beloved country.....and my chosen profession.  Anything would better at this point.
 
Infanteer said:
Ottawa and Toronto are often used as whipping boys and are portrayed by some (many?) as foreign places from which spring misguided policies and and one of half of official bilingualism.
And you don't have to go THAT far west of these places to have people feeling the same way ....
 
For sure, I watched the NB debate last night, one candidate talking about the need to develop natural resources to provide jobs and the other four candidates beating him up for it.
 
PPCLI Guy said:
Absolutely.  That concentration is a cancer that is eating my beloved country.....and my chosen profession.  Anything would better at this point.


The concentration is, as far as I can see/read almost universal, leaving aside the USA because it has a different, less 'adversarial' system of political-civil service relations. We, Canadians, were pioneers, having begun the concentration of power in the PMO circa 1970, while the Brits, for example, didn't really follow until Tony Blair became PM in 1997. But the disease appears, to me, to be prevalent in Australia, Britain, Germany, India and so on.

I think the real concentration began with Pierre Trudeau. There were a lot of things Prime Minister Trudeau didn't like about Ottawa circa 1967, but, in my opinion, what he hated most was the concentration of influence in the hands of a few people who were almost perfect copies of the civil service that OD Skelton created.

(Skelton was an odd duck. He was convinced that Britain was out to screw us in every way possible and that we could not trust them in any thing. But, he was also an Anglophile and the people he, personally, recruited into the civil service, people like Arnold Heeney, Lester Pearson, Norman Robertson and Hume Wrong were all of a type ~ WASPs and Oxbridge men. There were no French Canadians, few Roman Catholics, fewer Jews and so on. Was Skelton racially/ethnically prejudiced? Probably ... but so were many, likely most people of his generation.)

When Trudeau arrived in Ottawa it was hard, I have heard/read, for ministers, even for Paul Martin Sr, to penetrate the "old boys club" of the PMO (Mike Pearson, with only a few ides), PCO (Gordon Robertson, came to Ottawa after Skelton but of the same 'type:' WASP + Oxford), Finance (Mitchell Sharp, another former senior civil servant, but only a London School of Economics graduate was minister) and (then) External Affairs. Trudeau set about doing two things:

    1. He appointed his "own" man, Michael Pitfield, to be Clerk of the Privy Council ~ a move which I have heard/read was resisted by the "old guard" which, essentially, went underground for several years; and

    2. He, sometimes forcefully, moved younger French Canadians into senior civil service appointments, especially in External Affairs, a department for which he (Trudeau) seemed to have a special animus.

You might have thought that Brian Mulroney would try to reverse Trudeau's changes - and he did, of course, make a few changes, but he came to Ottawa, as most Tories do, extremely mistrustful of the civil service which he, like many Tories, saw as a bastion of Liberal insiders ~ and you can understand that when you look at e.g. Pearson, Sharp and Marcel Massé all former very senior bureaucrats. But he was well served by Gordon Osbaldeston as Clerk and pretty much the entire civil service was behind him when he decided to implement the key elements of Liberal Donald Macdonald's Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects for Canada, including Free Trade with the USA. Mulroney faced a common "new government" problem: inexperienced ministers. A strong PMO is almost mandatory when ministers (and ministerial staffs) are all "new to the business."

Jean Chrétien, for reasons of his own, promoted Jocelyne Bourgon to be Clerk of the Privy Council which gave his chief of staff, Jean Pelletier, and the PMO, even greater power.

Part, an important part, of the containment of the PMO is to have a strong, effective (but equally un-elected) PCO. The PCO was too weak under Jocelyne Bourgon, Mel Cappe and Alex Himelfarb, none of whom, although able individuals, were noted as being strong leaders; I suspect that Prime Minister Harper found the PCO to be too strong under Kevin Lynch.



Edit: grammar  :-[
 
Further to my last, see this, by Andrew Coyne, from the Ottawa Citizen. It's about Michael Chong's (now nearly totally aborted) Reform Act which aimed to "rebalance the relationship between party caucuses and their leaders," but it applies, equally, to the entire concentration of power.

Coyne explains, accurately I believe, that:

    "We are just going to have to accept this: Canadian democracy is unreformable — not without the consent of the leaders, and the leaders aren’t about to give it.

      That’s leaders, plural. If any good has come of this, it has been to confirm how empty were the pledges of support, or at least openness, from Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair. These were exactly
      as they appeared: tactical markers, nothing more, intended to avoid any overt display of opposition while the dirty work was being done behind the scenes. For make no mistake, if they had supported
      the bill, along with the 30 to 40 reform-minded Conservative MPs behind it, it would have passed.

      This is greatly clarifying. It isn’t only one party or its leader who stands in the way of Parliament’s reform. They all do. From the standpoint of democratic governance, ejecting Stephen Harper and
      the Conservatives from power wouldn’t make a dime’s worth of difference. It would simply replace one leader and his retinue of unelected advisors with another. Now we know."

 
I listened, quite carefully, to Justin Trudeau ("Trust fund Trudeau" the Tories have taken to calling him - see my remarks elsewhere about attack ads that work, this one, short and simple as it is, might work) being interviewed by Michael Enright on CBC's The Sunday Edition, this morning.

A longer version is here.

    First: I liked some of his answers - except for the "middle class" thing where he misused and abused statistics (the economy has doubled but the median "middle class' income has grown
    by only 15% in the same period: "So F___ing what? They are totally unrelated measures of different things!") - especially on free trade and general economic terms;

    but

    Second: it was a supremely softball interview, Michael Enright at his fawning best worst; and

    Third: I am about 95% certain M. Trudeau was, for 95% of the time, reciting scripted answers because his advisors knew what would be asked ~ not because Enright told them, he didn't
    have to, they know his views, they knew what he would ask.

Anyway, it's worth a half hour of your time if you plan to vote in 2015.
 
Michael de Adder, in the Hill Times sums up the big fight: between Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau:

BxlbUoHIgAABsCD.jpg


Both really want to fight against Prime Minister Harper but they must go at one another, first. The key, for both, is the legacy of "le bon Jack," in Quebec. Right now, M. Mulcair's NDP holds 55 of Quebec's 75 seats* and M. Trudeau's Liberals hold 8; if M. Trudeau wants, even, to be Leader of the Opposition, much less prime minister, he must, first, come close to reversing those numbers. From the 1940s until the rise, in the 1980s, of the BQ, the key to a majority government in Canada depended on having a firm base of 110+ seats in ON and QC ~ more in ON if you were Conservative, more in QC if you were Liberals. In the 1980s and '90s Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's Liberals won with only 20 or so Quebec seats but they got 95+ in Ontario so the general rule held true. Let me "give" M. Trudeau 25 of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada (up from the 13 he holds now) and 12 seats in Western Canada (up from the 4 he holds now), he must, still, get 133 in Ontario and Quebec in order to form a majority government. Now, will he "sweep" Ontario, as Jean Chrétien did in the 1980s and '90s? No, I don't think so. The Conservatives resonate better in Ontario than did Reform and there is far, far less fear of Quebec than there was in the 1980s and '90s. Let's say that Ontario will split in M. Trudeau's favour and he will get, say, 70 of Ontario's 121 seats; he still needs 60+ in Quebec - he needs to hold the CPC to their current 5, gain all of the 3 new seats and "turn" 55 seats from the NDP, the BQ and the Independents. That's no easy task.

But, as Michael de Adder suggests he has one hugely important ally: a largely uncritical, celebrity obsessed media.

_____
In the 2015 election Quebec will have 78 seats.
 
Interesting.  Here is a first contribution from Eric Grenier (three hundred and eight.com founder) to the CBC that breaks down some of the support in recent polling.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-polling-lead-more-than-a-justin-trudeau-honeymoon-1.2765560

Note that the NDP seems to be holding more or less firm in Quebec but that somehow, the Liberals are still leading.

Also note the decline in Conservative support in Ontario.

Looking forward to seeing what this year brings to the political spere.
 
Crantor said:
Interesting.  Here is a first contribution from Eric Grenier (three hundred and eight.com founder) to the CBC that breaks down some of the support in recent polling.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-polling-lead-more-than-a-justin-trudeau-honeymoon-1.2765560

Note that the NDP seems to be holding more or less firm in Quebec but that somehow, the Liberals are still leading.

Also note the decline in Conservative support in Ontario.

Looking forward to seeing what this year brings to the political spere.


If the NDP can hold on to 25 seats in Quebec, and if the Liberals cannot make real, substantial gains in almost every single province, then a Conservative government is still most likely ... a majority? Maybe, but a slim one.
 
Well if that does not make its way into a conservative attack ad next year, nothing will....
 
First off, this article is by Scott Reid so it will be somewhat biased but the various scenarios offer some interesting discussion points. 

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/reid-dont-dismiss-duffys-ability-to-force-harper-to-go

Now that we know the date and timleine of Duffy's trial (April 2015), it is doubtful that a spring election will be called so that removes that scenario.  Meaning now that the CPC will be in full campaign mode while dealing with the potential damage of this trial.  I truly believe that the PM would rather quit than face the prospect of a defeat at the hands of JT if it looks like it would be inevitable.

However from a practical standpoint I could see them betting that a surplus and improved economy might just get them through the storm assuming it is achieved and teh storm isn't as big as it could be.
 
whiskey601 said:
or Harper can go to the polls this coming January....

In violation of the act that he championed.  Unless he brings in a budget, orders his MPs out of the house when it comes up for a vote, and then gets an election called because the house fell on a money bill...
 
whiskey601 said:
or Harper can go to the polls this coming January....

Not likely.  He'll want to table a budget geared towards an election. That will be Feb/March.  No way he'll go before and no way he'll want to have a spring election with the Duffy thing going on.
 
dapaterson said:
In violation of the act that he championed.

Not really. The legislation lays out when a PM must call an election, not when he or she may call one.
 
And, God forbid, Mike Duff who is innocent until proven guilty and not in good health, dies, the media party will speculate about how lucky - nudge, nudge, wink, wink - the evil Harper was to escape the adverse publicity of a trial.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
For the record, regarding Hiva Mohammad Alizadeh, an Iranian born Canadian citizen who was sentenced to 24 years in prison for acts a judge described as being akin to treason ...

Justin Trudeau's (non) response ... (two revealing video clips)

Now Ezra Levant gave what I would guess, I have not watched it, a typically Ezra Levant rant about Justin Trudeau ~ that is to say, bombastic, edging on being libelous, in poor taste, with scant respect for accuracy, etc ~ in his commentary programme. That's what Ezra Levant is: a commentator. he is not a journalist in the way that, say, David Akin or Mercedes Stephenson (both of whom are known to members this site) are journalists, he doesn't report the 'news;' he is not even a 'journalist' in the way that, say, the Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson or Lawrence Martin, both highly opinionated, are journalists, he doesn't address big, national issues; he is of a newer, shriller, highly partisan variety that originated in the UK tabloids but has been transformed by US TV.

But M. Trudeau's campaign team has decided to boycott all of Sun Media, "until the company [Québécor Inc.] resolves the matter." Here is the text of the message sent out by M. Trudeau’s spokesperson Kate Purchase"

          “On Monday of last week (September 15th 2014), a segment on Sun News Network program ‘The Source’ crossed the line by airing a personal attack on the Trudeau family that was offensive and breached
            any reasonable measure of editorial integrity.

          “We have raised this issue with the appropriate people at Québécor Inc., the owners and operators of Sun News Network, and have asked that they consider an appropriate response.

          “Until the company resolves the matter, the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Justin Trudeau will continue to not engage with Sun Media.”

The Twitterverse is all aflutter; the media, generally, dislikes Ezra Levant and his style of journalism, but they also respect his right to express his views and most of the journalists' tweets that I have seen, regardless of their views pro or con, begin with the fact that M. Trudeau was, already, ignoring Sun Media ... see above.

An important point is that Québécor Inc. is the largest media company in Canada, and is especially strong in Quebec. I wonder how M. Trudeau's team will square that circle.

Edited to add:

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from from Sun News is the company's response:
20130808-114053-g.jpg


QMI AGENCY

OTTAWA - Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau says he will continue to snub English-language Sun Media reporters in protest of an opinion piece broadcast by Ezra Levant on his Sun News Network program, The Source.

And Trudeau has filed a complaint with Quebecor Inc., the Montreal-based company that owns Sun Media and Sun News Network.

Sun News Network is a news and opinion cable channel while Sun Media owns dozens of newspapers across the country including the largest French-language newspaper in the country, Le Journal de Montreal, the tabloid Sun newspapers, and several broadsheet daily papers such as the London Free Press and the Kingston Whig-Standard.

Trudeau's office said Levant, in a segment broadcast on Sept. 15, engaged in a personal attack that "was offensive and breached any reasonable measure of editorial integrity" and vowed that until Quebecor resolves the matter, Trudeau will "continue to not engage" with English-language Sun Media reporters or outlets.

For the last several months, Sun Media reporters have literally had to chase after Trudeau if they wanted to get the Liberal leader's thoughts on everything from climate change to fighting terrorists - and, in any event, Trudeau would often ignore them.

Glenn Garnett, Sun Media's editorial vice-president, says his organization is just the latest to be shut out by politicians who don't like the line of questioning from their reporters or the positions taken by their commentators.

Levant is not a reporter but writes an opinion column for the newspaper chain in addition to hosting a one-hour television show Monday-to-Friday.

"Ours is a large national organization reaching millions of Canadians through web, print and broadcast, so I think trying to punish us with silence may not be the best strategy. We'll go on doing our jobs," Garnett said.


Further edit to add:

Ottawa lawyer/consultant and Conservative activist Manny Monenegro tweets that"

          "Justin Trudeau called Peter Kent (very decent man) "piece of shit" because disagreed with him  I'd rank "slut" slightly below that"

Here's a link to a report on that 2011 bit of name calling; and a link to the video.
 
I heard clips this morning on the radio of what Levant said about the Trudeaus and it was quite harsh. I don't blame JT for losing it on this one.
This will be interesting to follow.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top