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Election 2015

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The Globe and Mail reports that, "Voters in favour of Liberals' economic plan, but unsure on Trudeau: poll."

The article, reporting on a Nanos poll says that the polling firm "found strong support for the kind of looser fiscal policy Mr. Trudeau has proposed, with voters preferring stimulus spending to boost the economy even if it means deficits over balancing the books. And many like the Liberal proposal to make the affluent pay more taxes, too ... but when Canadians are asked who they trust to manage the economy, the poll found 26 per cent chose the Liberal Leader, behind Conservative Leader Stephen Harper (31 per cent) and in a statistical tie with NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (28 per cent.) ... That suggests popular economic policies have so far not overcome questions about Mr. Trudeau’s experience and competence ..."

Further, according to the article, amongst respondents "about half, 49 per cent, think it is time to increase spending, even if means running deficits. That is the position Mr. Trudeau has taken. A smaller group, 42 per cent, believe the government should focus on balancing the budget to avoid increasing debt," and "when asked what would have the largest positive impact on the economy, 45 per cent choose the building of infrastructure, the big-ticket item at the centre of Mr. Trudeau’s stimulus proposal. That beats out spending on social programs (19 per cent), cutting taxes (17 per cent), or paying down national debt (16 per cent.)"

I'm not opposed to long term borrowing when, as now, money is cheap to fund equally long term infrastructure, of the right sort, and I commend M Trudeau for proposing that, but ⅔ of the elements of his deficit spending plan - social housing and "green" energy projects - do not, in anything but the wildest leaps of imagination, qualify as "right;" both are likely to saddle provincial utilities and cities with unsupportable long term debt burdens. M Trudeau's proposal is brave, but ill conceived and certain to do more harm than good.
 
I know I'm probably  :deadhorse:  because many of you, like most Canadians, probably think that corporate taxes are "good ...."

In my opinion, this is all the reason you need to not support your NDP candidate: "NDP seeks to fund spending plans with corporate tax hike."

Corporate taxes are:

    1.Inefficient, corporations are able to hire very good lawyers and accountants who, in their turn, help the corporations to shelter some (much?) of their profits from the taxman, meaning that we spend too much to get too little;

    2. Unfair, because, essentially, corporations pay the taxes they must by passing the taxes on, as part of the price, to the customers, you and me, regardless of our ability to pay. The poor pay an equal share with the rich; and

    3. Job killers because money spent on taxes cannot be spent on expansion which would create new jobs.

Political parties that favour raising corporate taxes are counting on the fact, and I believe it is a fact, that your greed and envy will outweigh your good, economic, common sense.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
An article in Britain's Daily Mail shows just how easy it is for IS** to get phoney passports to pass terrorists off as refugees.

And, in this vein, the Globe and Mail's John Ibbitson suggests, in this article that is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper, that Prime Minister Harper's hard line stance on Syrian refugees is not hurting him in the ridings he can and needs to win:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-refugee-crisis-response-far-from-fatal-for-harper/article26378498/
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Conservatives’ refugee crisis response far from fatal for Harper

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Sep. 16, 2015

If you’re in downtown Ottawa or downtown Toronto, just about everyone you talk to is convinced that the Syrian refugee crisis will prove fatal to Stephen Harper’s hopes for re-election. Which is why you should never trust the wisdom of people in downtown Ottawa or downtown Toronto.

Because the Syrian refugee problem is not proving fatal to the campaign. That doesn’t mean the Conservatives are immune from the impact of the crisis. The photo of Alan Kurdi lying lifeless on a beach threw a grenade into the election campaigns of all three parties.

But Canadians are not rising in unison to condemn the Conservatives’ handling of the crisis. Far from it.

A Nanos poll released on Tuesday for The Globe and Mail and CTV revealed that 28 per cent of Canadians felt that Mr. Harper was handling the refugee crisis better than the other leaders. Twenty-five per cent thought that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was doing the best job while 21 per cent picked NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair. Almost 20 per cent weren’t sure.

An Ipsos poll released on Tuesday reached a similar conclusion. Thirty-eight per cent of voters believed that Mr. Harper would “make the best decision for Canada on the Syrian refugee situation.” Thirty-two per cent were prepared to trust Mr. Mulcair, and 30 per cent Mr. Trudeau.

These numbers were corroborated by a Forum poll conducted a few days earlier.

Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau condemn Mr. Harper for lacking compassion in the face of the worst refugee emergency since the Second World War. They, and many in the media, invoke the precedent of 1979, when Canadians launched a drive that rescued 60,000 Vietnamese and other Indochinese refugees. They promise to rise to the occasion again by bringing in many more Syrian refugees than the Conservatives would accept, and bringing them in much quicker.

But the Middle East is not Southeast Asia. And many voters prefer the Conservatives’ more cautious approach.

According to Ipsos, seven voters in 10 agree with the statement: “We can’t compromise Canada’s security, and individual Syrian refugees should go through proper screening to make sure they aren’t terrorists even if this slows down their admission to Canada.” Only three in 10 agreed that “the Syrian refugee issue is a humanitarian emergency and Canada should be admitting Syrian refugees as quickly as possible even if this means we have to suspend our normal security screening provisions to make sure that individual refugees aren’t terrorists.”

While correlation may not equal causation, support for the Conservatives has been drifting up in recent days. From a distinct third place, which the party fell to in the immediate aftermath of the photo and the growing exodus of refugees to Europe, the Conservatives have moved steadily higher, into a tie with the other two parties.

“The current conventional wisdom on [the refugee] issue is probably wrong,” EKOS pollster Frank Graves concluded. “The refugee crisis has not hurt Mr. Harper. In fact, it seems to be helping him.”

That said, the Conservatives are emphatically offside with a number of premiers, mayors and aid agencies who have said they are willing and eager to take in more Syrian refugees. Several cabinet ministers from former Progressive Conservative governments have also called on Harper to do more.

Nanos reports that seven voters in 10 would like to see the quota of Syrian refugees increased. It may be safe to say most Canadians are willing to take in more Syrian refugees, but they want it done carefully.

It is far too early to say the Conservatives have weathered the refugee crisis, and might even be profiting from it as a political wedge issue. But we can say this: In asserting that the refugee issue would spur Canadians to reject Mr. Harper’s hard-headed, hard-hearted approach to governing once and for all, people who live in leafy downtown enclaves got it wrong. For the umpteenth time.


I suspect that the refugee crisis has, nearly, run it course as a "top of mind" issue.

At a guess, about half those who agree that the prime minister is "right" on refugees, i.e. 10 to 15% of all Canadians, are afraid that we will import terrorists while we try to help the poor, threatened, real refugees. I think they're right: I fully support spending hundreds of millions of dollars to help refugees in camps in the Middle East, but I oppose bringing any refugees to Canada, other than women, children and senior citizen males.
 
I said this once, further up the thread, and I see no reason to change my assessment. The public is stupid, lazy, and greedy. The party that best manages these characteristics will carry the day.
 
David Reevely, writing in the Ottawa Citizen, suggests, in this article which is reproduced under the fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper, that those nomination disputes that have bedevilled the Liberals might come back to haunt them in close election races:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/reevely-in-a-close-election-those-ugly-nomination-spats-matter
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In a close election, those ugly nomination spats matter

DAVID REEVELY

Published on: September 16, 2015

David Bertschi picked up more votes in losing than some of his fellow candidates did in winning in the last election, a historic wipeout for the Liberal party. But Bertschi was still barred from running for the party again. Instead, retired general Andrew Leslie got the nod, “unopposed,” on the grounds that Bertschi still owed money from a quixotic failed campaign for the Liberal leadership.

Bertschi won’t say who he’s voting for in Orléans this time, but it’s easy enough to read between the lines: He thinks the local candidate with a strong track record of speaking up for Orléans will do best. It’s hard to fit Leslie into that description.

“I haven’t been inspired, frankly. I think people in Orléans and across Canada want to be inspired,” Bertschi says. Several candidates have sought his advice, he says, but not Leslie.

The bigger deal than his own hurt, Bertschi says, is the hundreds of people who supported his nomination campaign and then had the rug pulled out from under them. It’s one thing to lose a nomination in a fair fight, something else to be told your guy can’t be in the ring — and that matters more in a place as full of public servants as Orléans than it might elsewhere.

“It’s a riding that really is attuned to the political and the policy issues that are at play in Ottawa,” Bertschi says.

Unless they’re pervasive, nomination shenanigans don’t usually mean much to a party overall. Loyalists in a particular riding will care if they feel as though their preferred candidate got a raw deal from the leader. Otherwise, who cares.

But in a race this close, with all three major parties scrapping over tenths of a percentage point in national support, those loyalists matter. Never mind whether they’re enthused enough to vote themselves. Will they show up for an extra canvassing shift? Spend two minutes more trying to convince an undecided brother-in-law over dinner? Stick around to help one more voter to the polls on election day? Take a large lawn sign instead of a small one? Keep at it throughout this extra-long campaign?

The rule of thumb is that the local candidate can be worth about five points of voter support — and a high-quality “ground game” is part of that. What’s it worth to get a candidate who’s more attractive to swing voters at the cost of repelling potential poll captains and sign hammerers?

In Orléans, Leslie’s a star candidate, a retired general with a sterling pedigree, the biggest-name challenger in any riding in the capital region. He gives heft to a leader who can come off as callow and it’s easy to see why the national party wanted him. But in 2011, Bertschi drew thousands more votes, and a higher percentage of the vote, than longtime Liberal MP Mauril Bélanger in Ottawa-Vanier next door, and nearly as many as David McGuinty in his family fief in Ottawa South.

“It’s hard. It’s hard,” says Bertschi when asked what’s it’s like to watch from the sidelines, describing public service as “an objective that’s very meaningful.”

Compare Bertschi’s tepidness to a couple of other unsuccessful nomination candidates. New Democrat Alex Cullen and Liberal Richard Mahoney sought their parties’ banners in Ottawa West-Nepean, both lost, and both are publicly pulling for their parties as loudly as ever.

In Nepean, Conservative Bob Plamondon lost the Tory nomination to Andy Wang. Plamondon, who took a leave from the National Capital Commission to seek the nomination, said he can’t talk about it now that he’s back (this preserves the polite fiction that he’s not a partisan). But the nomination fight was so bitter, so full of allegations of dirty-dealing, that three members of the riding association executive quit after it, including the president.

That kind of organizational loss, in a riding freshly born from the remnants of the former Nepean-Carleton, is hard to take. The new Nepean riding got all of Nepean-Carleton’s Liberals; Wang will likely do well there, but a win isn’t in the bag and it sure would be better for the local Conservatives if everyone were there to help.

Usually, parties can afford to blow off some support in exchange for other advantages they see in a favoured candidate. This time, some of their chicanery will hurt them in ways that matter.


M Trudeau, by dint of a combination of good campaign tactics, his own, pleasant personality and "events" like the Duffy trial and the refugee crisis, has brought his party into a close three way race; it would be a pity, for him, if his party's old habits did him in on election night.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
In anticipation of tonights's Leaders' Debate (focused on the economy) hosted and sponsored by the Globe and Mail, the Ottawa Citizen, in this article which is reproduced, without further comment because I think it's pretty fair and balanced, under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, takes a look at the state of the economy and the three leaders' key claims:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/how-canada-compares-economically-with-other-countries


And David Akin, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Sun, provides his own "fact sheet" for use in tonight's debate:

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/16/a-pre-debate-economic-fact-check
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A pre-debate economic fact check

BY DAVID AKIN, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF

FIRST POSTED: WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2015

OTTAWA - On Thursday night in Calgary, Stephen Harper, Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau will participate in the second leaders’ debate of this campaign and it will be a debate devoted entirely to the issue pollsters say is top of mind with voters: The economy.

Ahead of that debate, here’s a clip-and-save column with some straight-up statistical benchmarks to help you navigate each leaders’ spin.

And believe me, there will be spin from all sides. But the truth is the economy is not doing as well as Harper is likely to say it is but it’s certainly not doing as badly as his opponents will say.

Jobs:

The most recent numbers are from August.

The unemployment rate then was 7%. It was 7.4% at the 2011 general election; 7% a year ago and 6.8% in July. Getting under 7% for any government is excellent. Around 7% is good. Above 9% is disaster territory.

Since the last election, the economy has added 679,000 net new jobs, including 668,000 full-time jobs, a 3.8% increase.

Meanwhile, the labour force, which includes all employed and unemployed people, grew by 3.4%. So that’s good when the number of new jobs is increasing faster than the size of the labour force.

In the last year, we’ve added 114,600 net new jobs, a small 0.61% increase while the labour force grew 0.64%.

That’s made up with 230,000 net new full-time jobs while we’ve lost 115,000 part-time jobs. That’s sluggish but not bad considering the whack to the economy caused by the steep, rapid drop in oil prices.

The Economy:

Lastest numbers are from June and if you look at the overall year-over-year numbers, it’s not great but it’s not awful, either. The economy has grown by just 0.6% in that 12-month period.

Healthy growth in any given year is usually about 2.5%. Counting from the last general election, the Harper government has been averaging 2.17% growth a year.

The part of the economy that makes things — known as the goods-producing sector — has had a rough 12 months, with negative growth of 2.8%. But the service sector did OK with 2.1% growth.

The oil and gas and mining sector did worst, down 4.9% for the 12-month period ending in June. The arts, entertainment and recreation sector was booming in the same period, up 10%.

Were we in recession? By the narrowest of definitions — a definition few economists use — Canada was in recession for the first half of 2015.

But job growth and consumer spending has been steady all year. And in June, the economy showed strong overall growth and most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, believe the economy will continue to strengthen this year and next.

The government’s books:

The news broke this week that the government posted a surplus of $1.9 billion for the fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2015. So far this year, we only have numbers for the first quarter: April, May and June.

Buoyed by higher-than-expected tax revenue — a sign of a strengthening economy — along with a one-time $2.1 billion boost from the sale of Canada’s stake in General Motors, Ottawa is currently running a $5 billion surplus.

Real-time Reality Checks:

I’ll be live-tweeting the debate at twitter.com/davidakin and will try to provide real-time data checks on whatever the leaders say. Follow along!

I have no comment on this, either.
 
I expect we will hear more of this sort of thing from both Prime Minister Harper and M Mulcair tonight. Small business is a HUGE and vital segment of the Canadian economy ~ the lady in the bookstore is right about jobs ~ and M Trudeau gave himself a self inflicted wound when he told Peter Mansbridge that small business owners are just rich folks looking for tax breaks.

(It is true that some (many) small businesses are incorporated to provide tax shelters, I suspect that's what M Trudeau meant when he hinted that he, too, had used that route to shelter e.g. his speaking fees. But the majority of small business are legit and most small business owners are working/middle class folks, the very people he is trying to court, instead he pissed some of them off and gave the CPC and NDP fodder for their attack ads.)
 
More on tonight's debate in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-rise-means-more-at-stake-for-trudeau-in-economy-debate/article26389593/
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Liberals’ rise means more at stake for Trudeau in economy debate

ADAM RADWANSKI
The Globe and Mail

Last updated Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015

When he takes the stage in Calgary for The Globe and Mail’s debate on the economy, Justin Trudeau will face his toughest test of this campaign so far.

Whether he will rise to the occasion or fall into traps his rivals try to set is the biggest political question heading into Thursday evening’s showdown. And how it is answered could dramatically affect the rest of the race.

The story of the first half of this long campaign, in terms of how the parties stack up against each other, was Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals clawing their way back in. At risk of being marginalized at the outset, they managed – courtesy of a reasonably strong public performance by their leader, and probably more so because they spent a lot of money airing effective television advertising – to pull roughly even with the NDP and Conservatives in most polls.

Competing more against Mr. Trudeau than against each other for the biggest pools of swing voters, both Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper need to do something to drive the Liberals back down again. That something is to reinforce the perception that Mr. Trudeau is a lightweight.

In the campaign’s only other leaders’ debate so far, in early August, Mr. Trudeau had it relatively easy. Conservative advertising had reduced expectations to the point where, as Mr. Harper’s spokesperson put it, the Liberal Leader could exceed them by turning up with his pants on. Many months of behind-the-scenes practice helped him do more than that, seemingly catching his opponents off guard with his aggressive tone.

This time, expectations will be higher. The policies Mr. Trudeau has used to set himself apart, notably embracing the idea of deficit spending, offer fresh ammunition for branding him a risk. The other leaders will be more aggressive toward him.

That applies especially to Mr. Mulcair. It can be tricky for Liberals and New Democrats to attack each other, because it could irritate left-of-centre voters who would rather they target the Conservatives, and until recently the New Democrats left it to the Tories to do the heavy lifting on Mr. Trudeau. But last week at a rally in downtown Toronto, his voice dripping with contempt as he accused Mr. Trudeau of not being serious in his principles, Mr. Mulcair signalled a shift.

Conversations with NDP officials suggest more of the same on Thursday evening. One of Mr. Mulcair’s go-to topics, Mr. Trudeau’s failure to oppose the Tories’ anti-terrorism bill, will be difficult to work into an economic debate. But he will surely lean on several others, such as accusing Mr. Trudeau of abandoning a national child-care program and an increased minimum wage for federally regulated workers. With the NDP now having released a (vague) costing document for its campaign promises, Mr. Mulcair will probably demand to know where the Liberals’ version is, charging that Mr. Trudeau’s plans for four years of deficit spending would lead to big cuts later.

Mr. Harper will probably try to maintain the above-the-fray air he has usually cultivated in debates. But it would be shocking if he did not at least try to goad Mr. Trudeau into mistakes that fit into the frame the Tories have spent so long setting.

The scary part for the Liberals is that it might take just one such mistake to define Mr. Trudeau’s performance. Many voters see the debates only in the form of the most noteworthy clips played later. That is dangerous for any leader, but of the three, Mr. Trudeau has the greatest tendency to say clumsy things, and he could suffer most for such a moment because perceived competence is the area of his biggest liability.

In the first debate, Mr. Trudeau was able to generate clips that had the opposite effect. If he can achieve that again, or even just have it be a wash, it will further mess up the calculations of opponents who counted on the “not ready” perception to hold.

But this time, members of his campaign team concede, Mr. Trudeau has had less time to prepare. Their gains of the past six weeks hanging in the balance, Liberals will have good reason to hold their breath.


I agree with Mr Radwanski on three points:

    1. This debate is crucial for M Trudeau because, as noted above, Canadians may like some of his fiscal policies but they still harbour grave doubts about his ability to manage the economy;

    2. We should watch for M Mulcair to attack M Trudeau on both his abilities and his programme. There is, indeed, a risk of alienating some left wing voters, but the key battle in this election is between M Mulcair and M Trudeau; and

    3. "The scary part for the Liberals is that it might take just one such mistake to define Mr. Trudeau’s performance."
 
>The article, reporting on a Nanos poll says that the polling firm "found strong support for the kind of looser fiscal policy Mr. Trudeau has proposed, with voters preferring stimulus spending to boost the economy even if it means deficits over balancing the books.

I doubt the Conservatives can overcome this common misconception - that increased government spending is a magic bullet for all kinds of weak economic growth.  I am persuaded that more government spending in current circumstances will just displace private spending, but the Liberals and their faction of supporters in the media have been plastering the walls with "stimulus == growth" claims since Trudeau broke the no-deficit concensus.
 
Just one? If Prime Minister Harper had said even one of the nonsensical things the Young Dauphin has spouted over the course of his political career there would never have been an end to the constant repetition of the gaffe until he was literally hounded out of office.

No, the Legacy Media has worked long and hard to ignore the gaffes and stupidities coming from the Young Dauphin's mouth, and the only difference here is there is a larger chance of "foot in mouth" disease escaping the filter. Even so, you know already that there will be no mention of the moment in the next day's press, and it will be religiously overlooked and ignored until (hopefully) people forget or distracted by the next "Cecil the lion" story.
 
Heather Mallick, of the Toronto Star, has a go a Prime Minister Harper in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Harper's, a prestigious US magazine:

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The Nixon of the North
How Stephen Harper ruined Canada

By Heather Mallick

September 17, 2015

Canada was once a smug nation. We thought ourselves virtuous, and the rest of the world took us at our own estimation, especially Americans who threatened to move here when a Bush president or two became particularly intolerable. And we would have welcomed you!

That was Canada for you: eager to meet kindred souls such as draft dodgers and conscientious objectors. We were peacekeepers rather than bomb droppers, environmentally aware, urban, gun controlling, laughably snowbound, and apologetic to a fault.

Now, I’m sorry to say, we can no longer invite you. I mean, we’d still like to, but you wouldn’t make it across the border. And normal, peaceful, thoughtful Americans wouldn’t enjoy it here anymore. We’re becoming precisely what you’re trying to escape.

What a long, strange slide it has been for Canada since 2006, when Stephen Harper became prime minister. You thought you saw the last of Richard Nixon when he helicoptered off the White House’s South Lawn. Wrong: the man had a clone. And that clone must have been watching a lot of Sarah Palin speeches. Harper is Nixon without the charm, he’s Nixon without the progressive social and environmental programs, he’s Nixon but he worships at a fundamentalist church. If he wins reelection in October, Americans might want to consider a northern wall.

You seem to have survived Nixon and Palin and George W. Bush. But we Canadians have never had anyone like Harper. His most recent biographer, John Ibbitson, calls him

          slow to trust and quick to take offence, brooding and resentful at times, secretive beyond reason, perhaps the most introverted person ever to seek high office in this country.

It has been suggested that Harper, who is fifty-six, is a replicant of the Blade Runner variety: he speaks in a monotone, he’s impossibly rigid, and he seems unable to understand the emotions of others. His gray helmet of hair is a national obsession. Some say it’s cakelike, I say peaty. Is it damp to the touch? Many a winter evening has been spent speculating on the chemical composition of that fibrous, wind-resistant material.

In 2014, a mentally troubled man was killed after shooting at the security guards in Parliament Hill’s Centre Block building, where Harper’s caucus had gathered. Did Harper stay with his staff and his party? The other MPs initially assumed he had left. But in fact he had hidden in a closet for fifteen minutes. Not even a man-size safe like the one Dick Cheney had. A closet. Was this Harper’s lowest point? Not even close.

Harper has always disliked Canada. In 1997 he told the right-wing U.S. Council for National Policy that “Canada is a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term, and very proud of it.” He described the New Democratic Party, which has the best chance of defeating him in the upcoming election, as “a kind of proof that the devil lives and interferes in the affairs of men.”

I’ll give the man credit for doing so much damage in so short a time. He’s not smart, but he’s cunning. Canada uses a first-past-the-post system, with no runoffs, for federal elections, which means that a candidate needs only a plurality, not a majority, to win his or her constituency. This is how Harper’s Conservative Party could control 53.9 percent of the seats in the House of Commons after the 2011 election despite winning only 39.6 percent of the popular vote.

Canada once had what was semi-seriously known as a natural governing party, the Liberals, who were famously led in the Nixon era by Pierre Elliott Trudeau, an international-minded intellectual and devoted federalist. (Trudeau’s son Justin now leads the Liberal Party and is the political rival Harper hates most.) In the Canada most Americans grew up next to, the Liberals ran the show. They were reasonable people who believed in consensus and generosity, bilingualism and multiculturalism, free national health care, women’s rights, and an unofficial national slogan, “Peace, order, and good government.”

Harper, meanwhile, is a vengeful, damaged, grudge-holding punisher of the “urban elites” who vote Liberal, and has spent a lifetime plotting to transform Canada into a nastier version of Texas. He and his allies took what was once called the Progressive Conservative Party (filled with Red Tories, akin to the long-gone Rockefeller Republicans of America’s eastern seaboard), merged it with a nightmarish pressure group of government haters called the Canadian Conservative Reform Alliance Party (they realized too late that the acronym would be CCRAP), and created the modern Conservative Party.

He performed his most consequential act just after he took office, in 2006. He lowered the national consumption tax and the taxes on income. This cut the legs off the federal government. Most politicians, even on the right, want more money rather than less. Their pet causes, be they wars or pork barrels, require money. But Harper is a true believer; he really wants a government that’s too small to help its citizens. The few initiatives he’s been willing to embrace are those that Americans are now abandoning: mandatory minimum jail sentences, an expensive military, and an escalation of the war on drugs.

Some of his decisions are simply baffling. He killed the mandatory census, which he saw as an invasion of privacy. Can you run a country effectively with a voluntary census? I guess we’ll find out. He also eliminated the long-gun registry, a database valued by police forces across the country but loathed by Harper’s rural base.

On climate change, he’s much like the know-nothings in the Republican Party, but with one important difference. It isn’t that Harper doesn’t believe in climate change — in an earlier incarnation he said he did — it’s that he doesn’t appear to be bothered by it. Lately he has targeted scientists the way Joe McCarthy went after Communists. Government researchers have been pressured, their funding has been squeezed flat, and they have been told never to speak to the public without permission. Charities that deplored the mountain pine beetle (our forests, once soft and green, are now orange and as spiky as nailbrushes) or praised clean water or measured fish populations were singled out for tax audits.

Harper’s government is the most secretive Canada has ever known. The Conservatives have scooped and scalloped our freedom-of-information laws to the point that requests take years to fulfill and are prohibitively expensive, and the documents they produce are often so redacted that they resemble zebras. Studies have been kept secret, courts have been muted, and critics have been silenced.

Harper’s cabinet is full of misfits and fools. Take John Baird, who was put in charge of the budget (mandate: spend less on everything), accountability (see that there is none), environmental rules (undermine and break them), and foreign affairs (adore Israel all the time, basically), until he resigned suddenly for reasons that may never become clear. Or Jason Kenney, who serves as both minister of national defense and minister for multiculturalism, even though he is incompetent at the former (he dearly wants to join as many American wars as he can insert Canada into) and despises the latter. Kenney, a silly and vicious man, was once a great joy for me to cover, but when I saw the misery he imposed on refugee claimants after he excluded them from the health-care system, I realized that my work had become grotesque. Who’s laughing now? Not me.

Harper’s treatment of his staff has at times left them terrified. “There is a huge streak of paranoia in Stephen,” says Tom Flanagan, his mentor at the University of Calgary. “He can be suspicious, secretive, and vindictive, prone to sudden eruptions of white-hot rage over meaningless trivia, at other times falling into weeklong depressions in which he is incapable of making decisions.” After Flanagan wrote a book about Harper’s political strategy, his former student never spoke to him again.

I’ve been puzzling over whom Harper most resembles. Nixon and Palin are strong contenders. Also Nosferatu, Judge Jeffreys of the Bloody Assizes, and Mr. Burns from The Simpsons. But most of all, Harper reminds me of Captain Ahab.

Ahab hates Moby Dick; his hatred is contagious. Chris Power at the Guardian has beautifully described how Ahab

          can communicate his extreme, dangerous hatred to an entire crew, even educated, sensitive and openhearted Ishmael. . . . All the Pequod’s mates are described almost as automata controlled by their captain: “Like machines, they dumbly moved about the deck, ever conscious that the old man’s despot eye was on them.”

Harper’s obedient, dark-suited, rural, punitive, women-despising MPs likewise do as they’re told. They read their talking points; they vote as instructed. “The Ahab that wins out,” Power writes, “is part Macbeth, part Faust, and part Milton’s Satan. In love with his hatred, he is the most dangerous kind of leader. The kind who, when he falls, takes the whole ship down with him.”

And what is Harper’s white whale? It’s liberalism as a whole — the sensible, humane state that saner Canadian governments have been building since the Second World War. In the election on October 19, Canada will have a chance to return to that tradition. Thomas Mulcair of the New Democratic Party is solidly left-wing, smart and beardy, and cuttingly good during Question Period in the House whenever he asks Harper about bribes, lies, payoffs, and ethics advisers shuffling off to jail in shackles. If Mulcair doesn’t win a majority, he will have to do a deal with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. What a delightful change it will be if we can debate things like introducing a national day-care system and repealing Bill C-51, the antiterrorism law that made almost everyone in Canada feel guilty of something.

But if Harper wins a majority, well, we will pretty much follow the plot of Moby Dick. The ship will sink, and everyone will drown in a hideous libertarian vortex. It will mean, among other things, the death of the CBC. The national health-care system will grow miserly; though its funding is stable for now, with an aging population gobbling up services the money will disappear quickly. Climate change will advance without any attempt to prepare for it, much less slow it. We will build pipelines to cheapen transport of treated tar, we will frack, we will fry in summer and freeze in winter, and we will flood all year round.

Chin up, Americans! You may benefit from Canada’s ruin. Our vast supplies of water, once emphatically not on the auction block, will be sold to the highest bidder. You can grow enough almonds to gravel your roads, for all Harper cares. As for Canadian liberals — the conscientious objectors, the environmentalists, the peacekeepers: we’re moving to Denmark, if Denmark will have us.


There are, as one might expect from someone like Mallick, a few egregious errors like making John Baird "in charge of the budget," which implies he was Minister of Finance. For the record Mr Baird was  Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities, Minister of the Environment and President of the Treasury Board before becoming Canada's Foreign Minister. As President of the Treasury Board Mr Baird was in charge of "Financial and Expenditure Management," but that's not quite the same thing.

Beyond that it's just a mean spirited hatchet job ... but then, Ms Mallick really defines Harper Hater™, doesn't she?
 
...In 2014, a mentally troubled man was killed after shooting at the security guards in Parliament Hill’s Centre Block building, where Harper’s caucus had gathered...

You know when someone builds the lead-up to the PM being hustled by his RCMP close-protection detail into the nearest safe spot during a shooting event, thusly...the writer's piece is trash. 

Yes, poor Zehaf-Bibeau....  ::) At least have the decency to acknowledge Cpl. Nathan Cirillo by name... :not-again:

 
Good2Golf said:
You know when someone builds the lead-up to the PM being hustled by his RCMP close-protection detail into the nearest safe spot during a shooting event, thusly...the writer's piece is trash. 
That's how the Heather Mallick's of the world roll  :facepalm:
 
And she trots out the 53.9% of the seats with 39.1% of the vote trope. I'm sure she wasn't so offended when Chretien performed the same miracle.
 
That was Canada for you: eager to meet kindred souls such as draft dodgers and conscientious objectors. We were peacekeepers rather than bomb droppers, environmentally aware, urban, gun controlling, laughably snowbound, and apologetic to a fault.

That paragraph alone shows that Ms. Mallick, and her fellow travelers, have no sense of Canadian history and have never ventured outside of their little Evian-sipping, big-city cliques and have had no contact with your average Canadians, especially rural Canadians.
 
Brad Sallows said:
I doubt the Conservatives can overcome this common misconception - that increased government spending is a magic bullet for all kinds of weak economic growth. 

That's probably due to the massive number of blue "Economic Action Plan" signs.  With so much roadwork and construction in my neighbourhood just seeing the sign induces a response in me that would make Pavlov smile.

It's not like the Conservatives haven't been selling us this EXACT message in some form since 2008!
 
Just caught a goodly part of the debate.
At one point, Mr Mulcair was accusing Mr Harper of "admitting" something during "a secret meeting with the media in Vancouver".
That went right over my head (I really suck at debating).
When Mr Harper finally got his turn he started off by pointing out that it's pretty hard to have a secret meeting with the media.
It got a good laugh from the audience.

I was kinda wishing Mr Harper would just ask: "Who's going to pay for it?" to all the grand plans of national minimum wages and day care (especially since I'm one of the ones who will be paying for it) and maybe hammer home the point of trying to keep money in Canadians' pockets so we can make our own decisions.

But, again, I suck at debating so maybe he did OK. I eagerly await commentary from Mr Campbell.
 
Bass ackwards said:
Just caught a goodly part of the debate.
At one point, Mr Mulcair was accusing Mr Harper of "admitting" something during "a secret meeting with the media in Vancouver".
That went right over my head (I really suck at debating).
When Mr Harper finally got his turn he started off by pointing out that it's pretty hard to have a secret meeting with the media.
It got a good laugh from the audience.

I was kinda wishing Mr Harper would just ask: "Who's going to pay for it?" to all the grand plans of national minimum wages and day care (especially since I'm one of the ones who will be paying for it) and maybe hammer home the point of trying to keep money in Canadians' pockets so we can make our own decisions.

But, again, I suck at debating so maybe he did OK. I eagerly await commentary from Mr Campbell.

I actually laughed out loud at the "secret meeting" quip. 

If Mr. Harper did ask, Mr. Trudeau would say "3 years of deficits" and Mr. Mulcair would point to the corporations and rich people.  I don't think their camps would have budged and no swing voters would really go over to another side, so I'd think "what's the point?"
 
Yeah, you're right.
I never considered that.
Further proof of my debating skills.
 
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