Election 2011

[Edward Campbell]

Budget day tomorrow and contradictory polls in the media, but this, from the Globe and Mail, is encouraging:

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-federal-parties-stand-in-late-march-2011/article1949235/?from=1949232

The Conservatives and NDP appear to have gained a wee bit of popular support at the expense of the Liberals and Greens, but the Dippers (like the Liberals) still stand to lose a few seats.

But, as Harold Wilson said, "a week is a long time in politics" and we have many, many (probably six) weeks to go ...

 

[GR66]

Budget day tomorrow and contradictory polls in the media, but this, from the Globe and Mail, is encouraging:

I'm not certain that I'd call those projections "encouraging" for a number of reasons. 

The Conservatives are still sitting in minority territory which means they will likely stick to whatever policy line they think will keep them in power rather than following an ideological-based agenda which might actually solve some of the structural problems facing the country. 

While the numbers show the Conservatives gaining seats, if Harper yet again fails to win a majority against an opposition that is widely considered to be totally ineffective it will put his continuing leadership in serious question.  While I'm no fan of Harper personally I don't see a Conservative government handcuffed in minority territory AND having a divided caucus being able to achieve anything very positive.

Liberal losses projected are quite minimal which while likely being enough to force Iggy out of the leadership, they aren't nearly enough to force the party into a serious re-thinking of it's policies and backroom leadership.  Ditto for the NDP.  Survival for them is still a victory.  A divided minority Conservative government with still no viable opposition is a pretty crappy situation for a country that has so much potential.

The only real winners if this prediction holds true (and as with all pre-writ predictions that is a BIG "if") is the Bloc.  Oh, goodie!

 

[Edward Campbell]

My responses in yellow

I'm not certain that I'd call those projections "encouraging" for a number of reasons. 

The Conservatives are still sitting in minority territory which means they will likely stick to whatever policy line they think will keep them in power rather than following an ideological-based agenda which might actually solve some of the structural problems facing the country.

The country, by and large, is not ideologically conservative; if anything it is - or wants to be - a capitalist welfare state, with a strong emphasis in welfare. Canadians, as a people, feel strongly entitled to their entitlements, as David Dingwall might have said. While some 'conservative' solutions might be desirable the most important, cutting the GST by 2% thus hamstringing future governments who might want to spend recklessly, has already been taken. The useful prescriptions for Canada deal primarily with improving our national productivity - something which governments can encourage through lowering corporate taxes, investing in post secondary education, investing in infrastructure and freeing the national health care system from the economically unsound shackles of the Canada Health Act. None of those are 'conservative' ideas.

While the numbers show the Conservatives gaining seats, if Harper yet again fails to win a majority against an opposition that is widely considered to be totally ineffective it will put his continuing leadership in serious question.  While I'm no fan of Harper personally I don't see a Conservative government handcuffed in minority territory AND having a divided caucus being able to achieve anything very positive.

For a year or so, after he gains a stronger minority he will have a fairly free hand to govern as if he had a majority. That's time enough to push through campaign financing reform and to add new seats for AB, BC and ON.

Liberal losses projected are quite minimal which while likely being enough to force Iggy out of the leadership, they aren't nearly enough to force the party into a serious re-thinking of it's policies and backroom leadership.  Ditto for the NDP.  Survival for them is still a victory.  A divided minority Conservative government with still no viable opposition is a pretty crappy situation for a country that has so much potential.

No, but it's not as bad as the situation facing the other parties.

The only real winners if this prediction holds true (and as with all pre-writ predictions that is a BIG "if") is the Bloc.  Oh, goodie!

No, the "winners" are both the Bloc and the Conservatives and, to a degree, the more the Bloc wins the less relevant QC is in Canada and that is good for the country, overall.

 

[GAP]

The Liberals, under Iggy, might just lose big time....the ethnic city vote (al la Toronto) is not likely to be there, as Jason Kenny and others have spent years courting them...the Liberals haven't had the last 6 years to scare them into voting for them.

Buzz Hargrove screwed the NDP  in 2005/6  by showing the union minions that they can vote for something other than the dippers....Some will vote conservative, not many, but more than normal...

The Bloc and Quebec are rapidly becoming irrelevant. If Harper can get a majority WITHOUT Quebec...it kills the constant handouts mentality to a large extent. If need be Quebec can go, but it will be a much reduced in size Quebec that goes, because the natives won't go, and they have the whole middle & northern land mass....

 

[CougarKing]

While I only recently became a Canadian citizen last February after years of waiting, I did not expect to have my first chance to vote in a federal election to possibly come so soon...

link

Commons committee finds government in contempt, could trigger election

..OTTAWA - A Commons committee has passed a report recommending the Harper government be found in contempt of Parliament.

The move could trigger a non-confidence motion and a spring election.

The document is to be tabled in the House of Commons today and a formal vote is likely Thursday — although the government could try to delay it.

The 12-page report concludes the government is in contempt over its refusal to fully disclose the cost of its tough-on-crime agenda, corporate tax cuts and plans to purchase stealth fighter jets.

No government has ever been cited for contempt before.

The committee is separately considering a possible contempt citation against International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda for misleading Parliament.
...

 

[Edward Campbell]

While I only recently became a Canadian citizen last February after years of waiting, I did not expect to have my first chance to vote in a federal election to possibly come so soon...

The contempt motion need not trigger an election unless it is expressly framed as a motion of non-confidence because of contempt. The Liberals probably, almost certainly I think, want a non-confidence contempt motion; they do not want to fight an election on economic and leadership issues. The NDP may prefer to fight on the budget - understanding that most Canadians neither know nor care about "contempt of parliament." If that's the case then the NDP can 'save' the government until it falls on the budget by, simply, not showing up for the contempt vote.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Further, I wouldn't worry too much about a "contempt" motion when the Conservatives now have this to use against the Liberals - confirming that Liberal = crook.

Fraudster Raymond Lavigne resigns from Senate to protect his pension
Picture: Reuters from the Globe and Mail


Another QC Liberal stealing the public's money. What more could the Tories want?

 

[The Bread Guy]

More of the numbers, from Nanos Research.

 

[GAP]

Further, I wouldn't worry too much about a "contempt" motion when the Conservatives now have this to use against the Liberals - confirming that Liberal = crook.

Fraudster Raymond Lavigne resigns from Senate to protect his pension
Picture: Reuters from the Globe and Mail


Another QC Liberal stealing the public's money. What more could the Tories want?

This and a new book coming out of Quebec on March 31st about how senior Liberals in Quebec were never charged during the Sponsorship Scandal.....

 

[PuckChaser]

This and a new book coming out of Quebec on March 31st about how senior Liberals in Quebec were never charged during the Sponsorship Scandal.....

Great timing for the Liberals to bring down the government. A smart Conservative campaign can pick up and run with this.

 

[ModlrMike]

The spoiler role clearly belongs to the NDP now. They can absent themselves for the impending Liberal non-confidence motion, and wait for the budget. If they don't like the budget, they can vote against it. We know the Bloc will, I suspect that the Liberals will vote against the budget, and the NDP may or may not. Still, nothing prevents the Liberals from playing the same numbers game as the NDP when the budget vote comes up.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I agree with Bruce Anderson* on this one. The Conservatives (the party of which I am a member and to which I make substantial contributions) needs to think back to 1957 (St Laurent) and 1979 (Trudeau). Canadians recognize arrogance in power when they see it and they don’t like it. It will, likely, I hope, not be the biggest issue in this election but it something that will, sooner rather than later, cost seats and even power.

The column is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/bruce-anderson/

Ethics, arrogance and the end of the Teflon Tories

BRUCE ANDERSON

Globe and Mail Blog
Posted on Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Sometimes, the best defence truly is a strong offence. Then again, sometimes it’s the worst approach.

Watching Conservatives respond Monday to the variety of ethics and accountability issues that have of late beset them, my sense is that they might want go back to the dressing room, watch the tapes and reconsider some of what they are doing.

The Conservative response to the contempt finding has been at its most elegant, a shrug. Or more recently, to cheapen the importance of the ruling, arguing that it is nothing more than partisan bluster. The posture on the in-and-out case is to question the legitimacy or objectivity of Elections Canada. The RCMP investigation of a former aide to Stephen Harper is clearly troubling to the Conservatives. You could see it on their faces in the House. But viewers of Monday’s Question Period saw nothing resembling humility, quite the opposite.

If a deliberate strategy, the Conservatives are gambling that the public will take no notice of these issues and exchanges. It’s a gamble they might win, given the level of disengagement that afflicts Canadian politics today.

However, ethics and accountability are not the same as other issues, such as whether to fight crime with more jails, to invest in new fighter jets or to continue to reduce corporate taxes. In those cases, the substance matters, the tone less so.

But in Canada’s political context, accountability sits at one end of a spectrum, the other end of which lies the most fatal of hazards: arrogance. Along this spectrum, tone matters hugely. Too many even minor breaches, handled too poorly, and the Teflon that appears to protect this government will disintegrate.

If Canadians start to believe in larger numbers that the Conservatives have lost their compass when it comes to being open and truthful, that arrogance has taken root, the government will be putting a lot at risk, with no prospect of reward. The only upside of blustery attack in response to what might seem to most people as legitimate issues is that it can rally and titillate the faithful: an effect that dissipates quickly if and when the public reaction starts to turn ugly.

Whether there will or won’t be an election this year – I’m still not sure why the Liberals would choose to have one now – the accountability-arrogance spectrum has the potential to loom as a big challenge for the Conservatives. It’s not a terribly complex challenge to overcome: mostly a question of showing more humility and taking your lumps with good grace when they are deserved. If Monday was a test for the Tories, I'd bet that for the average, middle-of-the-road voter, the result was closer to a fail than a pass.

----------
* Anderson’s bio, from the Globe and Mail:

Bruce Anderson has been a leading researcher and communications advisor for more than two decades. He started working on Parliament Hill in1979 and moved to the private sector in 1983. He was a founding partner of the Earnscliffe Strategy Group and has done two stints with Decima Research, including as CEO from 2004 to 2008. He has worked on national campaigns and advised politicians in both the Progressive Conservative and Liberal parties. During the 2008 federal election, he authored the Harris Decima nightly poll for The Canadian Press. He is presently pro-politics but non-partisan.
Today, Anderson serves a range of public and corporate clients on subjects including financial services, telecommunications, energy, trade, homebuilding and the environment. He provides research-informed advice on branding, marketing, reputation and issues management and is simultaneously senior associate with Harris Decima and senior vice-president with National Public Relations.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A budget snapshot, courtesy of the Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/budget-2011/article1952010/?from=1951966


Many, especially Jack Layton's family, will want him to find enough in this to stave off an election. I don't think he will; he knows that it will be hard to avoid supporting the "contempt of parliament" motion and the Liberals' non-confidence motion and he would rather fight the election on handouts for "ordinary Canadians" than on the the Liberals' selected issue. Thus, if he has to fight an election he, rather than Ignatieff, might as well get the credit for defeating the government - after all, the media and the Tories have said it's his call.

This is, I think a good election budget: not too flashy - it demonstrates fiscal prudence - but with a fair few 'goodies' in any event.

 

[Edward Campbell]

According to the Globe and Mail's "live" feed, Layton is not taking the night to think things over: he says he will not support the budget. Looks like a May 11 general election. Hooray!

 

[ModlrMike]

According to the Globe and Mail's "live" feed, Layton is not taking the night to think things over: he says he will not support the budget. Looks like a May 11 general election. Hooray!

Unless the Liberal spine continues to be MIA and they have a convenient number of absent members for the vote.  :nod:

 

[PuckChaser]

I really want to know where Layton thinks all the money is going to come from to fund his programs? DND is already getting budgetary cuts, I'm almost afraid for my job if the NDP ever gets in.

I personally thought the budget was fiscally conservative, no big bang announcements, but no tax increases and small funding announcements. Definitely the kind of budget we needed with the global economy still fragile.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Unless the Liberal spine continues to be MIA and they have a convenient number of absent members for the vote.  :nod:

I don't think the Liberals can endure being seen as craven cowards any more. They need to so something and they want to go to the polls, even though they know they have zero chance of winning. They are tired of being Harper's doormats.

 

[GAP]

I don't think the Liberals can endure being seen as craven cowards any more. They need to so something and they want to go to the polls, even though they know they have zero chance of winning. They are tired of being Harper's doormats.

Ah....they make such nice doormats too!!.....they should keep doing what they know best..... :nod:

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think the forthcoming election will be good for the Liberal Party of Canada and, indeed, good for the country.

It has been over 40 years since the Liberal Party of Canada stood for anything: it's leaders, mainly Trudeau and Chrétien, have had policies and programmes they were “leader driven” policies that reflected, almost exclusively, the leaders’ proclivities (occasionally tempered by a few strong voices in the cabinet). The Liberal Party has not had a fresh idea since Kingston in 1960.

The Liberals need to get their act together and rank and file Liberals need to recapture their party from the “political professionals” who brought them, successively: Paul Martin as PM, Stéphane Dion and now Michael Ignatieff. One of the reasons that we, all of us, want the Liberals to get their act together is that we know (from  1935-1957, 1963-1979 and 1993-2006) what too many years of “one party rule” does to our country and one party rule by Conservatives is no better than one party rule by Liberals.

 

[Navalsnpr]

Great.. This will most likely be a spring that burns $300+ Million in taxpayers monies while we will be tormented by telemarketers (aka politicians & wanna bees) and pollute our lawns with plastic signs because the Children at the Big Boys table can't play well in the sandbox.

Honestly, you can never please everyone all of the time, but you sure can piss off everyone!!

Most likely the end result will be once again a minority government!!