Iggy might make the claim that he has the Conservatives on the ropes.
Oh, his Bagdad Bob stand...... :
Iggy might make the claim that he has the Conservatives on the ropes.
Why a leftward tilt is hobbling Michael Ignatieff
JOHN IBBITSON
Globe and Mail Update
Friday, March 4, 2011 7:45AM EST
Conflicting polls mask an emerging truth: As all parties contemplate a possible spring election, the numbers show the Liberal Party under Michael Ignatieff successfully draining support from the New Democratic and Green parties, just as it hoped to do.
But it is paying a price, as John Manley Liberals defect to the Conservatives, increasing the chances that a spring election would return Stephen Harper as prime minister with a strengthened minority, or possibly even a majority, government.
Pollsters are accusing each other of shoddy methodology and other evils, as companies such as Ipsos Reid and Harris Decima come up with differing assessments of the level of support for the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP federally.
But there is something we can learn from these polls. Taken as a bunch, they reveal that Conservative support has increased in recent months, Liberal support hasn’t gone down or up very much, and support for the NDP is declining.
Why is that happening? Here’s one possible explanation:
The Liberals accept that core Conservative support of something like one-in-three voters is rock solid, so if the Liberal vote is to grow it must come from convincing soft New Democrat and Green voters that only Michael Ignatieff can prevent Stephen Harper from remaining prime minister.
Accordingly, Mr. Ignatieff has shifted his party to the left. The Liberals oppose Conservative plans to purchase the F-35 stealth fighter. They would reverse the Conservatives’ most recent cuts to corporate taxes. They oppose the Tory crime agenda. A Liberal government would invest in home care, child care and other social programs.
This shift is working. Most polls suggest that the NDP’s support has declined since the last election from the high teens to the mid-to-low teens.
Except it is the Conservative, not the Liberal, numbers that are going up. Could some voters be leapfrogging from the NDP straight into the arms of the Conservatives? No. Something else is happening.
Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government began the process that led to the choice of the F-35 as the next generation of fighter jet. Paul Martin, as Liberal finance minister, launched the program of gradually reducing the corporate tax rate.
There are a great many voters who are socially liberal but fiscally conservative. In the past, they have supported the Liberal Party, in part because it won elections and in part because these voters distrusted the strain of social intolerance they detected within the Progressive Conservative/Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative parties.
We could call these people Manley Liberals, in honour of John Manley, the former Chrétien cabinet minister who is currently the head of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives.
Many Manley Liberals will have noted that the Liberal Party no longer wins elections, and that it reversing many of its own former policies.
As it becomes increasingly clear that Mr. Harper is keeping whatever socially conservative tendencies he might have in check, the temptation for Manley Liberals to switch to the Conservatives grows.
In sum, what we have seen in recent months is the drain of some support from the NDP and Greens to the Liberals, but an even larger drain of Manley Liberals to the Conservatives.
Unless the Liberals can reverse that drain, the outcome of the next election will not be what they’re hoping for.
Which prompts a parting question. If you’re an NDP MP in a rural riding where your support for the gun registry has you in Conservative crosshairs, or you’re a Liberal MP in a suburban Toronto or Vancouver riding facing a massive Conservative campaign to unseat you, why would you agree to bring down the government over the budget?
Why wouldn’t you tell your leader and caucus mates in no uncertain terms that with the polls showing the Conservatives as the only party that is gaining ground, it would be suicide to force a vote now? Why wouldn’t you let the budget pass, and live to fight another year?
This could set a dangerous precedent, if Quebec city gets an NHL team, Toronto will want one.
Baden Guy said:Glad to see that Mr.Austen provides coverage of both sides of the aisle :
New York Times
March 9, 2011
Canada: Conservatives in Contempt
By IAN AUSTEN
The speaker of the House of Commons found the Conservative government in contempt of Parliament on Wednesday for refusing to provide cost estimates for a new anticrime program and because of potentially misleading remarks from a cabinet minister. It was the third such finding against the government in about a year. After a review by a parliamentary committee, there is a remote possibility that the decision might ultimately jeopardize the ruling Conservative government’s hold on power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/world/americas/10briefs-Canada.html?ref=ianausten
Delaying Opposition Day
Rest assured that the federal budget will be released as scheduled next Tuesday, and the Liberals will not have an opportunity to introduce a non-confidence motion on Monday. The Tories have delayed the opposition day by one week, which I'm sure will draw the ire of the Liberals who would rather you don't see the budget. They are free to vote no on the budget and trigger an election if that's their prerogative, but there won't be a contempt of Parliament defeat before the budget is voted on. Great, I'd really like to see what's in the budget before I decide if we should have an election.
I'll admit that I did not like when Paul Martin delayed Conservative opposition days after the roof collapsed in the Gomery Inquiry, but Paulie delayed them for several months, not one week. I would like to see the budget before the next opposition day, and we won't have to wait very long. This was a great move.
Rifleman62 said:Surely Thucydides you not quoting a blogger as a source of information! Redeye will not be pleased. Next thing you know we will have to muddle through his renowned posts here.
Redeye said:I pass a fond reminder of that plan, the Washmill Lake Underpass (AKA the Underpass to Nowhere), every day on my way to work. A $10 million dollar boondoggle that was part of this "plan". The money wasted on it could have been used for other more pressing infrastructure projects that were actually needed, but instead, it wasn't. I'm sure it's but one of many examples.
Dennis Ruhl said:The provincial governments selected the projects and if they met the criteria the federal government wrote the cheque. Spending the money was the Federal stimulus. Getting value was up to the province.
Redeye said:...
More importantly, though, I can't stand that fact taht lots of public money is being spent to run these ads which are essentially campaign ads, that's not appropriate.
Redeye said:There were, however, several other projects of a similar nature on the list, and this one was a very, very low priority one on a large submitted list but it would seem that for whatever reason it was the one chosen.
More importantly, though, I can't stand that fact taht lots of public money is being spent to run these ads which are essentially campaign ads, that's not appropriate.