Election 2011

[Sigil]

I'm actually thrilled that an election will be called. It's time to clear the air and start fresh. I think the only real question will be whether the Tories will have a minority or majority. I for one am hoping it is a majority. I'm tired of the political games and stunts, and am ready for 4 years of solid, steady governing. The erratic, irresponsible deals a minority government is forced to make with the Bloc or the NDP isn't good for the country.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I really want to know where Layton thinks all the money is going to come from to fund his programs?

To borrow a phrase from the Communist Party of Canada, "make the rich pay".

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Layton doesn't care. He's a yappy little ghetto dog that knows his party will never take power. So he can make all the ridiculous demands and all the idiot promises he wants. He knows he'll never have to deliver.

 

[dapaterson]

DND is already getting budgetary cuts, I'm almost afraid for my job if the NDP ever gets in.

Incorrect.  DND is getting less growth than previously forecast, but there are no reductions to DND funding.  Indeed, DND's overall funding will increase in 11/12.  Only in GOvernmetn would "more than before,  but less than Iwanted" be seen as a "cut".

As well, DND traditionally does quite well in the Supplementary Estimates; I suspect that is a trend that will continue.

 

[nairna]

I think this election could lead to the first Conservative majority government in a while. I mean, I would think many people don't want an election at this time. Many of the polls conducted recently show Conservative gains and higher trust. Though the Conservatives have had some bad press lately, they have led for a long time with only a minority and have done fairly well. I think that people will see various factors that push them to vote Conservative. I think it's a possibility.

I just can not see any just reason to vote Liberal or NDP. I don't see any policies or leaders worthy of my vote.

I am glad this thread is on here it is a great tool of discussion.

 

[hold_fast]

Don't count out the Libs. Polls don't mean anything when we're at least six weeks from the finish line, and who knows what stands between us and the ballot count. Majority Con? Not in this lifetime.

Libs know where they're going to attack the government from and it will most likely involve some Harper demonization to rival the "Iggy isn't here for you" attack ads.

As excited as I am for the very likely election, I'm going to get pretty tired of vomiting at the nationalist Conservative ads that attempt to use patriotism to win votes.

 

[Rifleman62]

This article says a lot: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/03/22/kelly-mcparland-harper-gets-lesson-on-ethics-from-an-ethics-free-parliament/

Kelly McParland: Harper gets lecture on ethics from an ethics-free Parliament

Last Updated: Mar 22, 2011 8:26 AM ET

The opposition book on the Harper government was written almost the moment it was first elected, and hasn’t changed much since.

Here’s an article from January 2006, when Stephen Harper has been in office all of seven days. Check the spin, the attitude, the language and the Liberal sense of their birthright to power:

OTTAWA — Liberals are dreaming about a speedy return to power after watching the disastrous opening week of Stephen Harper’s new Conservative administration.
Only three weeks after suffering a humiliating defeat, Liberals are musing openly about whether Harper’s shaky minority government can survive the year.
And Liberal officials are being urged to hasten the selection of a new leader so that the party can be ready as soon as possible for an election.
“We are, I would say, reinvigorated and energized,” interim Liberal leader Bill Graham said in an interview at the end of Harper’s controversy-plagued inaugural week.
He said the opening week has stiffened Liberals’ resolve to oppose the Conservative agenda, even if it means toppling the government.
“We’re going to oppose those measures that we find are not in the interests of Canada and Canadians and we’ll oppose them all the way,” Graham said.
“And if that leads to the government falling, it’s going to lead to the government falling. And the way they’re making their decisions it’s clear that could happen earlier rather than later just given the nature of what they’re doing.”

Got it? The Conservative government was illegitimate, despite have just been elected by Canadians. Conservative decisions were undemocratic and went against the values of Canadians. Liberal positions were “in the interests of Canada,” Tory positions were not. It was the Liberals’ responsibility — despite having just been repudiated — to make every attempt to undermine the government’s ability to carry out its platform, and to regain power at the earliest possible moment.

It has never really changed. The opposition continues to attack the government as undemocratic, illegitimate and antithetical to Canadian values, even though the Tories have won two consecutive elections and lead opinion polls by a healthy margin. After the 2008 vote, in which the government increased its caucus while the Liberals lost seats, it was the opposition that attempted just weeks later to overturn the results and organize a coalition government.

Unable to destabilize the government on major issues, opposition parties resorted to  a seemingly bottomless supply of manufactured pseudo-scandals. Stephen Harper goes to a funeral and puts the communion wafer in his pocket! Harper goes to a summit and is late for the photo op! Harper and his defence minister can’t decide what colour to paint his plane! Harper somehow connives to have the Olympic committee adopt the Tory ‘C’ as a logo! Harper has lunch with Rupert Murdoch and plots a subversive media campaign to undermine Canadian values.

When the dirty little relationship between Brian Mulroney and Karlheinz Schreiber emerged, opposition MPs all but injured themselves trying to invent a link between Harper and events that took place before he’d even been elected as a rookie MP. A Parliamentary debate over Canadian treatment of Afghan prisoners deteriorated quickly into opposition efforts to portray the Conservatives as torturers, even though they’d inherited a bad policy from the Liberals and acted to clean it up. When Harper got along well with George W. Bush it was because he was a Republican stooge. Now that he gets along well with Barack Obama it’s because he’s plotting to sell out Canada to the Americans.

Liberals since Day One have insisted Harper has a “hidden agenda”. He’s portrayed as being homophobic, though he’s said nothing to justify the accusation or made any attempt to intrude on the legality of gay marriage. He’s accused of being “anti-choice”, though he has made no effort to raise the abortion issue and stated categorically that Canadians have no interest in reviving that debate. When he similarly stated that voters had no appetite for capital punishment, he was accused of trying to cram it down their throats.

Liberals accuse the Tories of being bigoted, biased, misogynistic and anti-immigrant, despite having boosted immigration levels to new highs.  They complain about Tory aggressiveness, but mock the prime minister as “Steve” and once sponsored a photo contest that produced an entry depicting him being assassinated. Michael Ignatieff  maintains there’s a “whiff of sulphur” about him, comparing him to Satan. Bob Rae rails about the “jihadis” in the Prime Minister’s office.  NDP MP Pat Martin, who specializes in being outraged by Tory behaviour, denounces International Co-operation MinisterBev Oda as  “the “minister of weasel words,” telling her she’s either a “very poor minister or equally poor liar.” Very polite Pat, very polite.

Mr. Ignatieff’s latest complaint is about a Tory suggestion that his family wasn’t as broke as he claims when his predecessors fled czarist Russia.

“These personal attacks are unprecedented in the history of Canadian democracy,” he insisted, ignoring the fact he’s the one who has twice written books about the glory of his family history, named one of them after a line in the national anthem, and released it just before a leadership convention in which he was a candidate.

This is not to justify the Conservatives’ tendency towards belligerency and oafishness, of which they are clearly guilty. But if anyone thinks a Liberal government would by better behaved, more co-operative with critics and tolerant of critics, think again. They haven’t achieved much in opposition, but they’ve learned a lot about oafishness.

 

[Sigil]

A major Ignatieff mistake was moving the Liberal party to the left to try to bleed off support from the NDP. Whatever he's gained (and polls suggest very little, if anything) in loony left support, he's more than made up for in losses among centrist voters who lean economically conservative -- voters who in the past have voted Liberal and many of whom are now bolting to the Conservatives. There's a reason the NDP have no chance of forming government...playing way off in left field doesn't appeal to most Canadians.

I think people are generally pleasantly surprised at what a centre-right government has produced over the past 5 years. Lower taxes, stronger military, an economy that has emerged from the recession as the envy of the G8, etc.

And it's hilarious how the Liberals...the party of AdScam, Shawinigate, and who knows how many other scandals...are attempting to portray themselves as saintly paragons of ethical responsibility and implacable foes of corruption. Do they seriously think Canadians were asleep during the entire period of 1993-2006? No wonder Canadians rank them last behind both the Conservatives AND the NDP when it comes to ethical and trustworthy government. Someone should have sent a memo to Michael Ignatieff.

I'm excited for an election. I think the Conservatives deserve to win, and I hope they get their majority. Canada deserves stable good government. I'd love 4 years without having to hear about the Bloc's constant demands.

 

[The Bread Guy]

FYI, here's what the Liberal and NDP party information machines have sent out post-Budget via e-mail - enjoy!

Liberals:

Last week at a Working Families town hall, I met a steel worker who’d just lost his job. With his family beside him, he broke down in tears as he asked for help.

He doesn’t want charity, he wants a job. This government doesn’t care about him, but we do.

As he spoke, I kept thinking to myself: How much further out-of-touch could this Conservative government be?

And then I saw today’s budget. The Conservatives are “staying the course” on $6 billion for tax breaks for the largest corporations. $13 billion on failed US-style mega-prisons. $30 billion for an untendered stealth fighter jet deal.

Nothing in today’s budget will help that steel worker’s family. Liberals are standing with working families, but in Stephen Harper’s Canada, they’re on their own.

With your help, we can focus on what really matters to Canadians: jobs, health care and pensions you can count on, affordable post-secondary education and training, support for family caregivers, and child care and early learning for our kids.

Liberals know what we stand for. And we’re making a clear choice to stand with Canadian families.

Liberals cannot support a budget that is out-of-touch with Canadian families’ priorities. And we will not support a government that deceives Canadians, breaks the law, and attacks our democracy.

Canadians want a different kind of Canada. An ambitious Canada. An entrepreneurial, innovative Canada. Where equal opportunity is back at the centre of Canadian life.

With an election call potentially days away, you can make a real contribution to the Liberal election fund to help us get our message out with a well-funded campaign and new TV ads.

Please donate what you can right now, and choose the Canada you believe in.

http://lpc.ca/electionfund

Thank you.

Michael Ignatieff

NDP:

A month ago I met with the Prime Minister to discuss the budget.

My message to him was clear: focus on the priorities of middle-class families or face an election.

For years, big business and the well-connected have been getting all the breaks. Now it's time for families to get a break.

Today Mr. Harper had an opportunity to address the needs of hard-working middle-class families. He missed that opportunity.

In the midst of mounting scandal, this government could have put political games aside and worked with other parties.

Stephen Harper could have achieved practical, affordable results to help families now. He could have showed Canadians that Ottawa can work for them.

But he chose not to do this.

Nothing in this budget has persuaded me that Stephen Harper has changed his ways and is prepared to work with others in Parliament to give middle-class families a break.

New Democrats will not support the budget as presented.

Jack Layton
Leader
Canada’s New Democrats

 

[GAP]

Nik on the Numbers Came by email

According to the latest CTV/Globe/Nanos survey, Canadians identified healthcare as the number one unprompted issue of concern (11 points higher than jobs/economy). This is interesting considering the current focus on jobs and the economy.

When asked about how they felt about the Harper government's plan to purchase military aircraft, a strong majority of Canadians (68%) did not think that now is the right time to make a major purchase of new jet fighters because of our deficit position. Opposition to this was high in the province of Quebec, and among undecided voters.

Finally, the Conservatives have a 9-point advantage over the Liberals (29.8% compared to 20.9%) on trust in terms of economic policy. Of note, one of four Canadians are unsure who to trust, which means that opinions on this could be more fluid than currently believed.

To chat about this poll, join the national political online chat at Nik on the Numbers.The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.


  Methodology
Between March 12th and March 15th, 2011, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,216 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,216 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples.



  Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

The numbers in parenthesis denote the one month change from the Nanos Ontario Omnibus survey completed on February 14th, 2011 (n=1,016).

Healthcare 29.2% (+6.3)
Job/the economy 18.1% (-2.1)
Education 8.8% (+3.5)
The environment 7.5% (-2.8)
Debt/deficit 3.8% (-1.4)
Unsure 9.1% (-3.3)

F35 Jet Question: As you may know, the Harper government is looking to purchase 65 new F35 fighter jets. There are some reports that the total cost could be as high as $30 billion. [Rotate] Some people say that we need to make this purchase now to prepare the future. Others say that now is not a good time because Canada is running a deficit. Which of these two views best reflects your personal opinions?

Purchase now 27.2%
Now is not a good time to purchase 67.8%
Unsure 5.0%

Net Scores - Regions*
Canada -40.6
Quebec -59.3
British Columbia -42.9
Ontario -40.4
Prairies -24.7
Atlantic -24.1

Net Scores - Supporters*
BQ -80.2
Undecided -54.1
NDP -44.7
Liberal -41.0
Green -30.1
Conservative -19.1

*Note that net scores for regions and supporters are obtained by substracting "Now not a good time to purchase" from "Purchase now"

Economic Policy trust Question: Which of the federal parties do you trust the most in terms of economic policy?

Conservative Party 29.8%
Liberal Party 20.9%
NDP 15.5%
Bloc Quebecois 6.4%
Green Party 2.1%
Unsure/no answer 25.4%

 

[GR66]

I think the forthcoming election COULD will be good for the Liberal Party of Canada and, indeed, good for the country.

It has been over 40 years since the Liberal Party of Canada stood for anything: it's leaders, mainly Trudeau and Chrétien, have had policies and programmes they were “leader driven” policies that reflected, almost exclusively, the leaders’ proclivities (occasionally tempered by a few strong voices in the cabinet). The Liberal Party has not had a fresh idea since Kingston in 1960.

The Liberals need to get their act together and rank and file Liberals need to recapture their party from the “political professionals” who brought them, successively: Paul Martin as PM, Stéphane Dion and now Michael Ignatieff. One of the reasons that we, all of us, want the Liberals to get their act together is that we know (from  1935-1957, 1963-1979 and 1993-2006) what too many years of “one party rule” does to our country and one party rule by Conservatives is no better than one party rule by Liberals.

I agree totally with this assessment, however I fear that the total incompetence of the Liberals combined with the strength of the Bloc taking away the Lib's potential base of support in Quebec has resulted in the "Harper Government" developing the same type of arrogance that plagued both the Trudeau and Chretien/Martin Liberal Majorities and the Mulroney Majority.  Dion wasn't bad enough to push the Conservatives into a majority and Iggy may not be enough either.  There are enough people that just don't like or trust Harper (and because of his authoritarian leadership style) just don't like or trust the Conservative Party.  They are still seen as the lesser evil as opposed to the better choice. 

Unless the Liberals really get hammered (i.e. lose big in both Ontario and the Maritimes) giving the Conservatives a strong majority there just won't be the incentive to wipe the slate clean.  A minority Conservative government will keep the hope alive of just changing the window dressing then finally beating Harper in the next round.  The incentive to "stay the course" will only be strengthened if there are also leadership grumbles within the Conservatives if Harper's leadership becomes seen as the thing that's holding back the party from ever getting a majority.

 

[dapaterson]

It is a mistake to consider the Bloc as "strong"; their electoral success is more a reflection on the poor quality of the competition than anything else.  They have mastered narrowcasting a political message to a more or less homogeneous group.

That the Liberals have chosen to emulate the old Tory sport of long memories and short knives has hurt them significantly; the Conservative party has yet to make a compelling case for themselves other than "we're not the Liberals" (and their recent budgets make even that claim dubious); and the NDP is, well, the NDP - a party founded on the principle that it's easy to stand for ideas when you know there's not a snowball's chance that you'll ever have to implement them.

 

[The Bread Guy]

What the PM has said about the budget - highlights mine:

“Once again, as you know, the leaders of all three Opposition parties have stated their reluctance to support our Budget.

“I am disappointed that they did not take time to read the Budget before rushing to their conclusions.

“Our economy is not a political game.  The global recovery is still fragile. Relative to other nations, Canada’s economic recovery has been strong, but its continuation is by no means assured.

“Many threats remain.  In an interconnected world, difficulties arising from turmoil in the Middle East, the disaster in Japan, European debt, and the ability of struggling trading partners to buy our exports can all put Canadian jobs at risk.

“In this period of global economic uncertainty, our Government is focused – above all else – on completing Canada’s economic recovery.

“The Budget that the Minister of Finance tabled yesterday – the Next Phase of Canada’s Economic Action Plan – is a low-tax plan of critical importance to jobs, growth and the financial security of hardworking Canadians.

“It is unfortunate for Canadians that the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois seem to have a different priority, and that is to force an unnecessary election.

“From coast-to-coast-to-coast Canadians expect all Parliamentarians to be working together to finish the job of securing our economic future.

“Let’s be clear about what the Opposition is opposing and what they would toss away. All things – by the way – that they claimed to support: An increase in the income of Canada’s most vulnerable senior citizens; the reintroduction of the Home Energy Retrofit program to reduce home heating costs; an innovative transition-to-work program for our Canadian Armed Forces Veterans; extensions to work-sharing and the targeted initiative for older workers; an incentive to retain the volunteer firefighting services that are so critical to rural communities; and powerful encouragement for doctors and nurses to locate in rural areas.

“The Opposition is threatening to vote down significant new supports for families and local communities including: tax relief for family caregivers as well as the elimination of the cap on the medical expense tax credit; the Children’s Arts Tax Credit; and enshrining the gas tax fund in legislation for infrastructure in cities and towns.

“They are opposing initiatives to promote jobs, growth and the international success of Canada’s forestry, agricultural, mining and aerospace sectors.

“The Opposition would block a break on EI premiums for small businesses that create jobs and they would stop a two-year extension of incentives in manufacturing.

“The Leaders of the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois must explain their rejection of these and other initiatives to promote jobs and growth.

“Let me be very clear: this Budget – the Next Phase of Canada’s Economic Action Plan – is designed to ensure the continuation of Canada’s recovery.

“The Opposition parties have a choice between two priorities: Their ambition for an unnecessary election or our important measures to support Canadians and the economy.

“Notwithstanding their declarations, the Opposition parties still have the opportunity to put Canadians’ interests first.

“It is not too late for them to step back, to think about the fragile global recovery, and to listen to the strong support of many organizations and the Canadian public for these measures.

“I encourage them to put the interests of Canadians first and to help us complete Canada’s economic recovery.

“To protect hardworking Canadians and their families, the financial sector, their jobs, their communities.

“Thank you.”

I don't think Iggy & Jack're going to bite.

 

[Haletown]

saw Iggy on the tube saying he can't support a budget that has $30 billion for fighter jets.

Guess I missed that part of the budget that was tabled yesterday.

Or maybe it wasn't there in the first place Mr. Iggy-Playing-Silly-Political-Games.

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... according to the latest from the Big Red Info Machine:

With the Harper government facing a contempt vote in Parliament, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff gave notice today that he will be moving a non-confidence motion against the government.

“Liberals can no longer support a government that misleads Canadians, breaks the rules and weakens our democracy,” said Mr. Ignatieff. “The Conservative government has misled the House and all Canadians by hiding the details of their core spending priorities from Parliament – and it means we can’t trust their budget numbers.”

The Liberal motion being placed on the Order Paper today for a vote in the House on Friday states:

That the House agrees with the finding of the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs that the Government is in contempt of Parliament, which is unprecedented in Canadian Parliamentary history, and consequently, the House has lost confidence in the Government.

“Stephen Harper must be held accountable for a pattern of abuse of power, attacks on democracy, and contempt for Parliament and the Canadian people,” said Mr. Ignatieff.

Mr. Harper’s inner-circle faces charges, with potential jail time, for breaking election laws, as well as two RCMP investigations for influence peddling and withholding information. Mr. Harper also shut down Parliament twice, supported a $500,000 gag order for the former Integrity Commissioner, and defended a Minister who forged documents and misled Parliament.

“The Conservative budget has no credibility, since they continue to hide the costs of their biggest spending priorities. How can any progressive MP support a government that ignores Canadian families and instead ‘stays the course’ on $6 billion in tax breaks for large corporations, a $30-billion untendered stealth fighter deal and $13 billion for U.S.-style mega-prisons?

“The Liberal Party will stand up to Stephen Harper and tell him that he doesn’t make the rules, Canadians do, and it’s not the ‘Harper Government’ it’s the Government of Canada,” concluded Mr. Ignatieff.

 

[ModlrMike]

...it’s not the ‘Harper Government’ it’s the Government of Canada...

Weren't the Liberals the first to use that term?

In any event, it looks like they'll have to vote on the budget first.

Edit to add:

I now realize that timing may favour the opposition. Regardless, I think:

1. Few Canadians care about the contempt issue outside the Ottawa core;
2. There are still far too many skeletons in the Liberal closet for them to profit from any perceived scandal here; and
3. The result of either vote will still look like a budget defeat.

 

[kratz]

I enjoy some smart editorial cartoons. This one today was one that I had to share:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Remember the "We can form a coalition, Madam GG" letter?  According to this blog, the document is no longer to be found on the Liberal.ca web page.  Funny that....  Thank heavens for archive.com - the petition is downloadable here ;D

 

[hold_fast]

It's is not undemocratic to lead by constitution. The misinformation and ignorance of some Canadians when that issue came up made me livid. The only questionable aspect was that it would have involved the Bloc, who only pull for Quebec and rarely all Canadians.

Then again, Harper was ready to do the same in 2004.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
Then again, Harper was ready to do the same in 2004.

And it, proposing a coalition that involves the BQ, was wrong then and it's wrong now.

I suspect that, even if the current guesstimate were to hold, the Liberals and NDP will want to try - without formal BQ support in the coalition (cabinet) but with a formally acknowledged BQ pledge of support for, say, one year. And that, I also suspect will be too much for most Canadians and will cost both the Liberals and NDP dearly.


If the Liberals and NDP, combined, can muster more seats than the Conservatives then they should go ahead and form a government when the first opportunity arises - but without the BQ.