Election 2011

[Kirkhill]

If the numbers continue with the Liberals and NDP in a dead heat I would question the wisdom of any coalition to the long-term health of the Libs.  Whatever Ignatieff wants quickly becomes irrelevant.  Replacing him ASAP, preferably with someone 20 years younger would be a priority.  I think a lot of Libs will be no-shows for confidence votes until they regain their direction.  As a conservative, the demise of the Liberal Party gives me momentary glee but concern at the leftward shift in Canadian politics.

I don't see a leftward shift in the politics.  I do see a realignment of the representation.  Perhaps a couple of election cycles of BC type polarization between Left and Right would be a good thing.  It could cause Canadians to appreciate the relative merits and demerits of both ends of the political spectrum and allow them to properly appreciate what it is they are voting for.

The Liberals, bridging the left and the right, obscured the consequences of both hard left and hard right policies by wobbling where ever they needed to go in order to retain power.

 

[Old Sweat]

The problem is that I see yet another Liberal civil war looming: the issue being that it is not an Anglo/Franco rotation but, rather, a Canada/Québec one. Both Denis Coderre (who I, as a staunch Conservative, really hope will lead the Liberals – to political oblivion) and Martin Cochon will fight for that position.

The difficulty here is that neither has a seat and Cauchon is in a tough fight for one. I suppose one could think of Marc Garneau, who has been not too unimpressive, while Trudeau the Younger is waaay too inexperienced. Cripes, maybe Dion will be their saviour, once again. Okay, that last bit is far-fetched, but an old Tory can dream. The Liberal cupboard is a little bare in Quebec, except for an excess of hyperactive egos.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another poll that I suspect is 'rogue,' reported upon in this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Tories+headed+huge+majority+vaults+into+second+place/4659432/story.html

Tories headed for huge majority as NDP vaults into second place

Liberals decaying, Bloc obliterated in vast poll swing

By Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News

April 22, 2011

With 10 days to go before the May 2 election, Stephen Harper's Conservatives are poised to win a solid majority and Jack Layton's New Democrats have bumped the Liberals out of second place in national party standings, according to results of a new poll.

The nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals a historic shift in public opinion has occurred in the past four weeks as the political parties jostled for votes.

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would receive 43-percent support among decided voters, up two points from two weeks ago. Even more significantly, the NDP -on a roll after Layton's solid performances in the two leaders debates -would receive the support of 24 per cent of voters, up by five points.

The upswing marks the first time in 20 years that the New Democrats have been ahead of the Liberals in national standings.

Michael Ignatieff 's Liberals, despite attempts to convince voters they are the only alternative to Harper's Tories, slipped five points to 21-per-cent support.

ELECTION 2011 EXCLUSIVE POLL

The news is just as bleak for Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois, which have long held a commanding lead in public opinion in Quebec. Support nationally for the separatist party rests at six per cent, down three points, but far more damaging are the numbers in Quebec, where the Bloc is running a point behind the NDP, 27 to 28.

Elizabeth May's Green Party has four per cent of national support.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said the results of the poll, conducted Monday to Wednesday of this week, confirm a significant shift is occurring. He said the sudden rise in national support for the New Democrats is largely thanks to growth in Quebec and in British Columbia.

It's difficult to predict how much this boost in the popular vote would translate into extra seats for Layton's party, he said. While the NDP has political experience in B.C., it has little history of organizational strength in Quebec.

"It does come down to the ground game," said Bricker. "You have to be able to get those votes into the ballot box. The real story about the NDP surge isn't about them winning a lot more seats, but how they affect the Liberal votes and the Bloc votes."

Bricker said it's possible that in Quebec, as the Liberals and Bloc lose votes to the NDP, the Tories could stand to benefit in tight races.

As well, in the tight races that are expected to occur in B.C., the Liberals are already far behind their opponents and the question for many "soft" Liberal voters will be where they ultimately throw their support.

So what does this mean for what could happen on election night?

"It doesn't mean they're (New Democrats) going to be ahead of the Liberals in seat counts but what it means is that there's an extreme competition happening at the left of the political spectrum," said Bricker. "And as long as they're fighting each other, they're not fighting the Tories."

He said that's good news for the Conservatives, whose support levels -particularly in key regions such as Ontario -have remained solid since the start of the race. "The Tories are coasting into election day. The only question is, if they win a majority how big is it going to be?"

A close look at the three largest regions reveals that:

In Quebec, a four-way race is developing. The NDP (28 per cent) leads narrowly over the Bloc (27 per cent), with the Tories (24 per cent) and Liberals (20 per cent) close behind;

In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41 per cent) maintain a strong lead over the Liberals (27 per cent), with the NDP (22 per cent) not far behind. The Green party stands at six per cent;

In B.C., the Conservatives (46 percent) still have a strong lead over the surging NDP (32 per cent) and the Liberals (12 per cent) are struggling to keep their support levels higher than the Greens' (nine per cent).

The poll also has significant findings about which of the leaders Canadians trust the most. When it comes to choosing one who is best described as someone they can trust, 40 per cent (up by seven points from two weeks ago) chose Layton. By comparison, 35 per cent chose Harper (up one point) and just nine per cent believe Ignatieff is best described by this trait (down three points).

Bricker said Ignatieff's inability to secure the trust of voters is helping drag down his party's popularity. Moreover, he said the Liberals, who are running on a left-of-centre platform filled with social program promises, don't have the trust of the voters they are seeking.

"That's the irony here. The Liberals decided to go hard on health care and Stephen Harper in their ads. But every time people see an ad like that they're influenced to vote for the NDP because they're more credible."

Bricker said that with 10 days left before May 2, the Liberals have little opportunity to turn things around. "The problem for the Liberals now is they are fighting a two-front war. And they're running out of racetrack." Still, Bricker also noted that while the current spike in NDP support is significant, the party has not done well in past campaigns in the final days.

"In the last three election campaigns, they have not finished strong. They've always managed to fritter it away. The question is whether he (Layton) can sustain it."

For its survey, Ipsos Reid conduced a telephone poll April 18-20 of a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times in 20. The poll's margins of error are higher regionally. In the survey, Canadians were asked: "Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow which of the following parties candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?" They were also asked "To follow is a character trait that can be used to describe federal political leaders. Please indicate which leader is best described by the trait: someone you can trust."

ADVANCE POLLS OPEN

Early birds get their first chance to cast ballots in the federal election this weekend with advance polls open to voters on Friday, Saturday and Monday.

Where, when and how to vote in an advance poll is listed on the voter registration card that all registered voters should have received from Elections Canada. The information is also available on the Internet at www.electioncanada.ca or by calling the Elections Canada hotline at 1-866-256-2873.

You will have to provide proof of identity to vote. Acceptable ID includes government-issued identification that includes your photo, name and address, such as a driver's licence; or two original pieces of authorized identification that include your name and one of which includes your address (example: a health card and a hydro bill). A third option is to take an oath at the polling station and also have an elector from the same polling district vouch for your identity. That person must have authorized identification and can only vouch for one voter.

The general election is set for Monday, May 2.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

While I hope that a Conservative majority is, just, within reach, but Stephen Harper is neither John Diefenbaker or Brian Mulroney and 201 seats in a five party race would equal their feats in 1958 and 1984.

 

[Kirkhill]

Argyle, agreed that Harper is not Diefenbaker or Mulroney.  He doesn't have the rhetorical skills that qualify him for the role of "man on the white horse".  But suppose he compensates for that deficiency by building a better organisation.  Ultimately that would create a greater impact on Canadian politics.  Diefenbaker and Mulroney, for all their personal abilities, were essentially one-hit wonders who did not build an edifice to outlast them.

Laurier built such an edifice and after a hundred years it is looking decidedly shaky.  Can Harper's 39% be converted into a Conservative 39% that will outlast him?

 

[Edward Campbell]

It is the 43% number in that Ipsos Reid poll that intrigues me.

A low to mid 40s number is what the Liberals had in '67, '74 and '80 (Trudeau) and again in '93 and 2000 (Chrétien) and what the Tories had in '88 (Mulroney, who got just, maybe, 50% in '84 (although that number is disputed by some.))

It is harder in a five part parliament but that is what the Conservatives need to get and maintain, year after year, decade after decade, to become the 'natural governing party.'

To get there the Conservatives have to move to the centre and shove the Liberals father to the left.

 

[George Wallace]

I can see the "Twitter Threat" of younger voters who may be drinking from the koolaid of either the Liberals or fringe parties as causing some havoc in the Returns.  The Polls we are looking at now, may very well not reflect Results if "tweets" are used to influence voter decisions as the Returns are processed Westward. 

I was not too impressed with the images I witnessed of the youth at Carleton University in their little news clip a week ago in whatever the universities are conducting.  Being enfranchised, I would have hoped that they would have been more informed.  Instead I was witnessing ideologies being put to the forefront, some of which were far from realistic.

This could be one of the most interesting Elections in 'recent' history.

 

[Rifleman62]

I am about as sick as hearing Iggy's whines as I am of seeing Obama every day flying about the US. Who is running the US?
The crap that Iggy says. Compare with the number of direct references by Harper to any of the opposition party leaders.

Anywho: http://smalldeadanimals.com/

The First American Prime Minister: Quote Of The Week

"Jack Layton wasn’t there on the firearms registry, just ask the victims of the Polytechnique." - Michael Ignatieff

Can you imagine how low this tool would be polling by now without 75% of media running interference on his behalf?

 

[PuckChaser]

I'm curious as to how the twitter threat will effect the polls. Aren't polling stations on the East Coast not going to release their numbers until the West Coast is closed? Wouldn't that prevent numbers from hitting the west coast and cause voting shifts?

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
Can you imagine how low this tool would be polling by now without 75% of media running interference on his behalf?

I'm not so sure the media is pro-Ignatieff or, even, pro-Liberal; I am pretty sure that much (but not all) of the media is anti-Harper, even some of the parts that are, normally, pro-Conservative. The guy who appears, to me, to be getting a "free ride" is Jack Layton - and I think that shows.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm curious as to how the twitter threat will effect the polls. Aren't polling stations on the East Coast not going to release their numbers until the West Coast is closed? Wouldn't that prevent numbers from hitting the west coast and cause voting shifts?

That's how I understand it is supposed to work.


Edit: formatting

 

[Edward Campbell]

See this, from Elections Canada:

----------
128. (1) The voting hours on polling day are

(a) from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Newfoundland, Atlantic or Central time zone;


(b) from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Eastern time zone;


(c) from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Mountain time zone; and


(d) from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Pacific time zone.


Exception – Saskatchewan

(2) Despite subsection (1), if polling day is during a time of the year when the rest of the country is observing daylight saving time, the voting hours in Saskatchewan are

(a) in the case of an electoral district in the Central time zone, from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.; and


(b) in the case of an electoral district in the Mountain time zone, from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

----------

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

I'm curious as to how the twitter threat will effect the polls. Aren't polling stations on the East Coast not going to release their numbers until the West Coast is closed? Wouldn't that prevent numbers from hitting the west coast and cause voting shifts?

Also the further west, the earlier the polls close.  Also, anyone concerned enough to vote in BC is hardly going to vote based on what the Maritimes do.

 

[GAP]

I'm not so sure the media is pro-Ignatieff or, even, pro-Liberal; I am pretty sure that much (but not all) of the media is anti-Harper, even some of the parts that are, normally, pro-Conservative. The guy who appears, to me, to be getting a "free ride" is Jack Layton - and I think that shows.

Apparently, As it Happens (CBC) ask for feedback as to how the MSM is doing in this election. A couple of days later they played back the taped messages.....boy did they get blasted!!  every one who phoned in told them they were nothing but propagandists for the Liberals and totally biased......nice to hear....

 

[George Wallace]

I'm curious as to how the twitter threat will effect the polls. Aren't polling stations on the East Coast not going to release their numbers until the West Coast is closed? Wouldn't that prevent numbers from hitting the west coast and cause voting shifts?

As you know, the televised event will be closed to points West, until near closing time for the Polls in that Time Zone.  There are still numbers being posted, and in the past, we have seen Satellite feeds being seen by people in areas/regions/Time Zones to the West that have had the possibility of influencing voting amongst some.  The addition of Twitter can also have a more profound affect, as some people just can't get off the air......they tweet that they are going to the bathroom for Christ sake........now they are going to tweet how they voted as well. 

 

[GAP]

Interesting numbers on taxes...
http://www.mapleleafparty.ca/2011/04/20/percentage-of-federal-income-tax-by-income-percentile/
Notes:

    * 2009 data
    * watch the reference tables – they duplicate some income brackets
    * The split is really Bottom 52% Top 48% and the others are pretty close

The income cut offs and number of returns (again approximate) are:

    * 746,000 Canadians paid $0 in taxes
    * 48% = <$35,000 (14,560,000 tax payers)
    * 52% = $35,000 (10,400,000 tax payers)
    * 38% = $80,000 (2,562,000 tax payers)
    * 28% = $100,000 (1,416,000 tax payers)
    * 17% = $150,000 (526,000 tax payers)
    * 11% = $250,000 (188,000 greedy rich bastards!)

 

[Rifleman62]

Did you see this in the Cdn media yesterday??

http://imarketnews.com/node/29810

Thursday, April 21, 2011 - 12:48

Canada Federal Deficit Falls Over 11 Months of 2010/11

By Courtney Tower

OTTAWA (MNI) Canada's federal finances are improving substantially, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper can and will note in the current national election campaign in which he claims superior economic management.

In its monthly Fiscal Monitor, the federal Finance Department on Thursday reported a budgetary deficit for the first 11 months of Canada's fiscal year, which ended March 31, of C$28.3 billion (US$29.7 billion).

The deficit was C$40.5 billion in the same 11 months of 2009-10. The Finance Department said that more than C$14 billion of the C$28.3 billion deficit in the period was due to special economic stimulus actions taken following the 2008-09 recession globally and in Canada.

By the latest count, Canada's national debt stands at more than C$563 billion, or about 34% of Gross Domestic Product.

The Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, historically a supporter of Prime Minister Harper and his Conservative government's economic policies, has of late criticized the federal financial management.

It said that the Harper government is not reining in government spending, and notes that the increase in the national debt stems from deficits over the last five years that have occurred following a string of 11 annual budget surpluses put in place by previous Liberal governments.

Harper and his Conservatives are campaigning for Canadians to re-elect them this time as a majority in Parliament, saying they are the prudent economic managers. Harper promises no tax increases and a continuation of planned corporate tax decreases built into previous legislation. Canada's business taxes are well below those of the United States, its largest trading and economic partner by far.

The election was created by the three opposition parties in the House of Commons defeating the minority Conservatives on their annual budget, which projected the annual deficits to end in 2015. It handed out small and targeted tax and grant supports to various distinct voting communities but made no grand change in economic direction of any kind.

The Fiscal Monitor, reporting the decline of the deficit, said federal revenues were up 6.6% in the 11 months, "primarily reflecting higher personal and corporate income tax revenues" and consumer tax revenues. Government spending, on the other hand, had decreased very marginally, down 0.2% to C$210.2 billion for the period.

 

[Old Sweat]

This story, from todays Globe and Mail web site, which is posted under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act, lays out some scenarios and options for left-leaning voters.


Anti-Harper voters may be reassessing leaders as campaign nears end


Bruce Anderson

Globe and Mail Blog

Posted on Friday, April 22, 2011 11:35AM EDT


The most recent polls paint a clear picture of the size of the challenge facing the Liberals, but the actual nature of the challenge is subtle and complex. It lies below the surface of the horse race numbers.

Roughly 60 per cent of Canadians don’t want to vote for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. When these folks think there is a chance to replace the Conservatives with another government, some of them will consider voting for a party that isn’t their first choice. This was, of course, the game plan of the Liberals in 2004, 2006, 2008 and lots of times in the last century, too.

However, if these voters conclude they are going to get a Conservative government regardless of how they vote, their thought process may change.

They may become focused on who they want to lead the daily charge against the government, to keep the next Harper government honest.

If we assume for the sake of argument that this is in effect the new ballot question for these voters, it’s playing to Jack Layton’s advantage. If the next 10 days is like an audition for the role of Opposition Leader, he may or may not win the role, but his screen test is already going pretty well.

First, he’s the only one who’s been campaigning for this job, and he’s been at it for years. (He always says he’s running to be PM, but no one believes that even he believes it). Lots of voters might not want him to run anything, but like him as a champion of the little guy.

He comes across to voters as an articulate, energetic, and genuine fellow. He’s seen as a partisan, but also a nice guy. He can throw a hard punch, but he also smiles a lot.

Many of the voters I’m talking about are left of centre on the spectrum. Certainly they are almost all to the left of Stephen Harper. They would probably like the policy ideas that are contained in the Liberal platform, but the Family Pack has been getting little air play. Without having to study his platform, these voters know intuitively by now where Mr. Layton’s values are. And again, they are not looking for a Layton government.

Gilles Duceppe doesn’t ask to be Opposition Leader. He campaigns solely to defend Quebec’s interests. But if Quebecers dislike Conservative governments, (and they lead the country in that category) voting BQ has proven completely futile at avoiding that outcome. It’s logical that many would wonder if its not time to re-engage and consider a pan-Canadian party at some point, and equally logical that they would look for one with social democratic DNA.

Michael Ignatieff as Opposition Leader didn’t make much of an impact on voters. He’s campaigning better, but even he’s been wondering aloud why his campaign isn’t connecting with more voters. The risk for him is in that group of voters who prefer him to Stephen Harper as PM, but doubt he will win that race, and aren’t sure he’d be the most effective Opposition Leader.

Ten days ago, conventional wisdom had it that the campaign was all but over, and nothing different would come of it. Today, new scenarios are created every hour or two. The safest bet is that there may be a turn or two left as voters start to think more seriously about the choice they will make on May 2. Until then, the fluctuations in the polls are the sound of people thinking out loud, not deciding.

 

[Old Sweat]

And Jeffery Simpson weighs in with an argument for the Liberals to have campaigned on raising taxes. His column is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.


The Liberals' strategic error: going short

JEFFREY SIMPSON | Columnist profile | E-mail
From Friday's Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Apr. 22, 2011 2:00AM EDT

Last updated Friday, Apr. 22, 2011 8:08AM EDT

The Liberals had a strategic policy choice: Go long or go short. They chose to go short, and it hasn’t worked, at least not yet.

Who knows if going long would have succeeded? That would have been much riskier politically. It would have meant, in policy terms, raising taxes beyond the modest rollback of Conservative corporate tax decreases and/or stringing out the return to a balanced budget, or both. In return, the Liberals would have had more revenue to propose more arresting social policy improvements.

Of course, the Conservatives, themselves big spenders, would have lashed the Liberals as “tax and spenders,” which is what’s happening anyway. Why not wear the moniker proudly, and pledge something dramatic to Canadians for additional taxes such as catastrophic coverage?

The answer: The Liberals feared running any campaign on raising personal or consumption taxes. And, apparently, they feared eliminating any of the targeted tax breaks beloved of the Conservatives that have pockmarked the system. Nor did they want to remove any of the spending programs that the Conservatives had so lavishly spread around the country and injected into base budgets, again fearing a negative reaction.

Going long, for example, would have been the Liberals canning the Conservatives’ ineffective family allowance cheques (called child benefits) and using the money for daycare, or raising the GST and using the money to cut personal income taxes and to spend on one or two high-profile social policy improvements. Given the party’s doldrums and Michael Ignatieff’s image problems (augmented by the Conservative attack ads), this would have been both exciting and risky.

As it is, the Liberals have a series of social promises, none really large enough to catch much attention politically. Take, for instance, the $1,000 to $1,500 yearly grant for students at university or college (a “learning passport”) – it’s one of those pledges that sound better than they’ll be in practice.

Most university students (community college ones are different) come from middle- to upper-income families. Giving them a grant makes no sense. Similarly, the sum won’t really tip the balance on whether students attend school. It would have been far better to augment existing student aid for those who really need help, rather than creating a new program where many already exist.

The “learning passport” is the Liberals’ most expensive promise, at $980-million. The other 28 are medium- to small-bore targeted programs, some very worthy but financed somewhat shakily by assumed savings from the corporate tax rollback, $500-million from a wireless spectrum auction and one of those amorphous promises to find $500-million through a review of government spending.

Wisely, the Liberal platform doesn’t project Ottawa’s fiscal situation five years ahead, as the other parties do, a projection that is more guesswork than anything. And the Liberals add a “prudence reserve” of $1.5-billion, rising to $3-billion, a fixture of the Chrétien-Martin years that the Harper government unwisely scrapped.

But no sooner had the Liberals unveiled their platform than they looked at the polls, saw health care at the top again, and pledged a 6-per-cent indexation for health-care transfers when the current agreement expires in 2014.

This promise gave everything to the provinces without asking for anything in return, but that didn’t stop Mr. Ignatieff from saying what he’d want the money used for. Having given away the shop, he’d be in no position to demand anything of anybody. He’d be scrounging to find the money for his new promise. Like the other party leaders, he talks much about health care without making much sense.

The Liberals, scarred by their carbon tax promise in the last election, are now recommending a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse-gas emissions. But they don’t say how it would work. At least they haven’t invented $7-billion in revenue for the federal government from such a scheme, as the NDP does.

What the Liberals have done, however, is fallen into the pit of crass political opportunism by promising to fund a hockey arena in Quebec City, then saying a Liberal government would be open to similar follies elsewhere in Canada. Campaigns sometimes make otherwise sane people say the silliest things.

 

[vonGarvin]

This line caught me about Mr. Layton:

First, he’s the only one who’s been campaigning for this job, and he’s been at it for years. (He always says he’s running to be PM, but no one believes that even he believes it). Lots of voters might not want him to run anything, but like him as a champion of the little guy.
He comes across to voters as an articulate, energetic, and genuine fellow. He’s seen as a partisan, but also a nice guy. He can throw a hard punch, but he also smiles a lot.

I couldn't agree more.  I like Jack, I like the fact that the NDP are in parliament  (in fact, I just suggested to a friend who lives in Ottawa that she should vote for her local NDP candidate).  Having said that, I don't like his policies and I think that if he were in charge, we'd all end up in economic ruin. 

To illustrate, remember when we had those surpluses and then-Finance Minister Paul Martin was starting to pay down the debt?  Mr. Layton was suggesting that the surplus go to social spending, to wit, tossing aside any gains we had made.

Anyway, I wonder if Mr. Layton will become the leader of HM's  Loyal Opposition?

 

[PuckChaser]

Anyway, I wonder if Mr. Layton will become the leader of HM's  Loyal Opposition?

I think he would be the best person for the job. The Conservatives are more likely to work with Layton because he has a level head on his shoulders, and is not arrogant and power hungry. He's happy with whatever seats he gets in the House, and has already leveraged them to get some concessions in the previous Tory budget.