Election 2011

[Infanteer]

Back on topic...

Metro
​

Signs of 1993 all over again, with 'Reform' and 'Progressive Conservative' being replaced by 'Liberal' and 'NDP' who get 54 seats between the two of them due to the split?

 

[GR66]

This would probably be my prefered outcome in the case of another Conservative minority.  I just hope it doesn't go off the rails by having a provocative as opposed to innocuous Throne Speech. 

Until and unless we act, through our parliament, to clarify the crown power's and methods - as the Brits have done - then I think the GG is best advised to say nothing to anyone.

It's true that we as a nation still have some unfinished business in terms of clearly defining our form of government.  Unfortunately I don't see much hope of addressing these issues so long as the Quebec issue continues to scare everyone away from discussing the Constitution.

 

[Edward Campbell]

One of the better bits of political "analysis" this campaign: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/canadas-political-big-wheels/article1992491/?from=1992449

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is a very different take on election projections:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

NDP on track to win 60 seats, poll projects

JANE TABER

Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Thursday, April 21, 2011


Jack Layton and his surging New Democrats are poised to see their representation in the Commons increased from 36 to 60 seats, denying the Harper Conservatives their coveted majority, according to a new EKOS Research poll.

The survey, released Thursday, has the NDP tied with the Liberals – 24.7 per cent – while the Tories are at 34.4 per cent nationally. The Bloc is at 6.5 per cent and the Green Party is at 7.8 per cent.

Poll after poll has shown the NDP making significant gains – but this EKOS poll for iPolitics also provides seat projections based on the NDP’s recent and unexpected climb.

They show remarkable gains for Mr. Layton, with the NDP winning 24 more seats nationally and the Tories considerably diminished, not even close to a majority government. Under the EKOS scenario the Tories would see their seat count reduced from 143 to 134; the Liberals would gain five more seats, going from 77 to 82. The Bloc Québécois would lose in Quebec – going from 47 to 32 seats.

There are 308 seats in the House of Commons; 155 seats are needed to form a majority government.

Mr. Layton’s gains would come mostly in Quebec, where the poll projects the party moving from one seat to 14. It all comes at the expense of the separatist Bloc, which is projected to lose 15 seats.

The EKOS seat projections show, too, that the Conservatives would win 14 seats, three more than they have now. The Liberals would gain one more seat – up to 15.

In Ontario, meanwhile, the Tories would lose three seats while the Liberals would win four seats; the NDP would remain the same.

But the NDP would see gains in Atlantic Canada – winning five seats, one more than they have now. In Manitoba they would gain two more seats – going from three to five seats - and in Saskatchewan they would win five new seats. They have no seats in that province currently.

Remarkably, Mr. Layton is predicting another seat in Alberta for the New Democrats, bringing their count in the Tory-dominated province to two. The Liberals would gain none.

And in British Columbia the NDP would win two seats, going from nine to 11 while the Conservatives would lose three, dropping from 21 to 18, and the Liberals would also gain two more.

Mr. Graves cautions that these results are not “the final public judgment.”

“It will be very interesting and important to watch what happens over the long weekend as the electorate ponder where they have arrived,” Mr. Graves said in a release accompanying his projections.

The poll of 2,156 Canadians was conducted between April 18 and April 20; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

BQ =        32
Cons =  134
Libs =      82
NDP =      60

Hmmmm, interesting.

 

[PuckChaser]

Where is this poll getting its numbers? There's no way the Liberals are going to gain 5 seats with the Conservatives polling steady and the NDP gaining. Libs and BQ are gonna give up a few seats to the NDP, with maybe a couple more from Atlantic Canada going to the Tories.

 

[ModlrMike]

Countering the EKOS data, this from the National Post:
(reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act)
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/21/tories-19-points-up-ndp-top-liberals-for-second-poll/

Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll

Postmedia News  Apr 21, 2011 – 5:30 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 21, 2011 5:27 PM ET

By Mark Kennedy

OTTAWA — Jack Layton’s NDP has bumped the Liberals out of second place nationally in public favour and the front-place Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead that could deliver them a majority government on May 2, according to results of a new poll.

The nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals a historic shift in public opinion has occurred as the political parties have fought for votes in this campaign.

If an election were held now, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would receive 43 per cent of the vote among decided voters, up two points from two weeks ago.

The New Democrats, who are on a roll after Layton put in solid performances in the two leaders debates, would receive the support of 24 per cent of voters — up by five points.

This is the first time in 20 years that the federal NDP has been ahead of the Liberals in the polls.

Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals, despite trying in this campaign to convince voters that they are the only alternative to Harper’s Tories, have instead slipped into third place. The poll found that 21 per cent of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals, down by five points.

The news is just as bleak for Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois, which had long held a commanding lead in public opinion in Quebec.

Support nationally for the separatist party rests at six per cent, down three points. More significantly, the Bloc is running in second place in Quebec, at 27 per cent, slightly behind the NDP.

The Green party, led by Elizabeth May, has four per cent of national support.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said Thursday the results of the April 18-20 poll confirm a significant shift is occurring.

He said the sudden rise in national support for the New Democrats is largely thanks to growth in Quebec and in British Columbia.

It’s difficult to predict how much this boost in the popular vote would translate into extra seats for Layton’s party, he said.

While the NDP has political experience in B.C., it has little history of organizational strength in Quebec.

“It does come down to the ground game,” said Bricker.

“You have to be able to get those votes into the ballot box.”

“The real story about the NDP surge isn’t about them winning a lot more seats, but how they affect the Liberal votes and the Bloc votes.”

Bricker said it’s possible that in Quebec, as the Liberals and Bloc lose votes to the NDP, the Tories could stand to benefit in tight races.

As well, in the tight races that are expected to occur in B.C., the Liberals are already far behind their opponents and the question for many “soft” Liberal voters will be where they ultimately throw their support.

So what does this mean for what could happen on election night?

“It doesn’t mean they’re (New Democrats) going to be ahead of the Liberals in seat counts but what it means is that there’s an extreme competition happening at the left of the political spectrum,” said Bricker.

“And as long as they’re fighting each other, they’re not fighting the Tories.”

Bricker said that’s good news for the Conservatives, whose support levels — particularly in key regions such as Ontario — have remained solid since the start of the race.

“The Tories are coasting into election day. The only question is, if they win a majority how big is it going to be?”

A close look at the three largest regions reveals that:

    * In Quebec, a four-way race is developing. The NDP (28 per cent) leads narrowly over the Bloc (27 per cent), with the Conservatives (24 per cent) and Liberals (20 per cent) close behind;
    * In Ontario, the Conservatives (41 per cent) maintain a strong lead over the Liberals (27 per cent), with the NDP (22 per cent) not far behind. The Green party stands at six per cent;
    * In British Columbia, the Conservatives (46 per cent) still have a strong lead over the surging NDP (32 per cent) and the Liberals (12 per cent) are struggling to keep their support levels higher than that of the Green party (nine per cent).

However, the poll’s margins of error are higher regionally than they are nationally.

The poll also has significant findings about which of the leaders Canadians trust the most.

When it comes to choosing one of the leaders who is best described as someone they can trust, 40 per cent (up by seven points from two weeks ago) chose Layton.

By comparison, 35 per cent chose Harper (up one point) and just nine per cent believe Ignatieff is best described by this trait (down three points).

Meanwhile, six per cent nationally (23 per cent in Quebec) say it’s Duceppe. Eleven per cent said they did not know who they most trust.

Bricker said Ignatieff’s inability to secure the trust of voters is helping drag down his party’s popularity.

Moreover, he said the Liberals, who are running on a left-of-centre platform filled with social program promises, don’t have the trust of the voters they are seeking.

“That’s the irony here. The Liberals decided to go hard on health care and Stephen Harper in their ads. But every time people see an ad like that they’re influenced to vote for the NDP because they’re more credible.”

Bricker said that with just more a week before the end of the campaign, the Liberals have little opportunity to turn things around.

“The problem for the Liberals now is they are fighting a two-front war. And they’re running out of racetrack.”

Still, Bricker also noted that while the current spike in NDP support is significant, the party has not done well in past campaigns in the final days.

“In the last three election campaigns, they have not finished strong. They’ve always managed to fritter it away. The question is whether he (Layton) can sustain it.”

In other regions, the poll’s findings were as follows:

    * In Alberta, the Tories hold 72 per cent, while the Liberals have 13 per cent, the NDP have 11 per cent and the Green party has two per cent;
    * In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 62 per cent, while the NDP has 20 per cent, the Liberals have 16 per cent, and the Green party has two per cent;
    * In the Atlantic region, the Tories have 44 per cent, followed by the NDP at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 24 per cent, and the Green party at two per cent.

For its survey, Ipsos Reid conduced a telephone poll April 18-20 of a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the regional results are: B.C. (8.9 per cent); Alberta (9.8 per cent); Manitoba/Saskatchewan (12.2 per cent); Ontario (4.9 per cent); Quebec (6.2 per cent); Atlantic Canada (12.2 per cent).

In the survey, Canadians were asked: “Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow which of the following parties candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?” They were also asked “To follow is a character trait that can be used to describe federal political leaders. Please indicate which leader is best described by the trait: someone you can trust.”

The full results are available at Ipsos.ca

With regard to the EKOS data, I just don't see the NDP rising to 60 seats and the Conservatives falling to 134. The national polling trends have the Conservatives comfortably ahead in most areas. What I find interesting is the convergence of the NDP and Liberal support. If you look at the threehundredeight.com graphics of the regional polls, you can see that in BC, the Prairies, and Atlantic regions, the NDP and Liberals are very close indeed. This may predict a vote split on election day that sees the Torries pick up a few unexpected gains. I don't discount the NDP support in Quebec, but perhaps that's skewing the national number as it's very hard indeed to unseat a Bloc MP. There are still 8 or 9 days of polling left, before the required pre-vote break, so we'll have to see how the numbers develop.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4rlLgtBwLfw/TbCGp9_k1SI/AAAAAAAAE3Y/qaTBGRH1S0E/s1600/Region+Polls.PNG

There are a couple of other key considerations:

1. the Globe is hard left Liberal;
2. the Post is center right, Torrie friendly; and
3. the only poll that counts is on election day.

 

[vonGarvin]

I was about to post that article.  You beat me to it.

Polls are polls, but they are but an indicator of general perceptions.  What was the polling like just prior to the debacle of 1993 when the PCs were swept from power?  Could the Liberals be on their way out in such numbers?

 

[Kirkhill]

The poll also has significant findings about which of the leaders Canadians trust the most.

When it comes to choosing one of the leaders who is best described as someone they can trust, 40 per cent (up by seven points from two weeks ago) chose Layton.

By comparison, 35 per cent chose Harper (up one point) and just nine per cent believe Ignatieff is best described by this trait (down three points).

Meanwhile, six per cent nationally (23 per cent in Quebec) say it’s Duceppe. Eleven per cent said they did not know who they most trust.

There, I think, is the real number of interest.  Iggy has demonstrated that he is not just "intelligent" but that he is also "clever".  And clever is not an admirable trait.

He knows how to play the rules as opposed to playing the game.  Now those people that were wavering about Liberal or NDP can come to understand that a vote for one is a vote for both.  In which case do they go with the clever johnny come lately or the Jack, that for all his faults is the man he always was.

The same thing applies to Harper, even those that don't like him trust him to be himself.  And more importantly his vote isn't going anywhere.  The worst that can happen to him is that his vote doesn't turn out.  And Iggy has just ensured that isn't going to happen.

Given that:  undecided lefties go to Jack, undecided Liberals go to Steven or stay home, the Liberals secure their rump vote in spite of their "clever" leader.  And with Quebecers taking a liking to Jack's working class French and him having a shot at a coalition and the Bloc supporting the coalition and Jack - what's not to like?


"Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!"

Sir Walter Scott, Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.
Scottish author & novelist (1771 - 1832)

 

[Dissident]

I just saw three attack adds by the NDP aimed at Iggy. Is the coalition falling apart?!

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

What is apparent is that the scary Conservatives with the hidden agenda are not near as scary to the voters as the Liberals.  The Conservatives have been the government for 5 years and don't scare anyone other than Liberals.  The dreaded Conservatives with the hidden agenda didn't work the last two elections so who in the Liberal crew decided to use it again.  The look of desperation is all over the Liberal campaign.

 

[vonGarvin]

The look of desperation is all over the Liberal campaign.

I agree, and if I were a Liberal Campaign person, I'd be advocating right now to go after the NDP, not a 5 year old platform of fear mongering.

 

[dapaterson]

Tory rift appears over Scarborough candidate

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/978644--tory-rift-appears-over-scarborough-candidate?bn=1

Apparently, the Conservative candidate in Scarborough has described Tamil Tigers as heroes. 

When presented with the video, Environment Minister Peter Kent told The Globe and Mail that Paranchothy’s words were “unacceptable” and that the party had “obviously dropped the ball” when conducting background checks on candidates.

EDIT to add: Globe and Mail article at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/minister-revokes-support-for-tory-candidate-who-praised-terrorists/article1994736/

 

[Edward Campbell]

The projection has finally changed, big time, according to this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS

April 22, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government

FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
Drip, drip, drip - Conservatives and NDP make gains

Five new polls have been added to the projection and the slow progression of the New Democrats in the model continues. Polls fromAngus-Reid, EKOS, Forum, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos were added this morning.

There might be quite a few of you impatient with the how slowly this projection moves, but I have to point out that the stellar NDP growth in Quebec and in Canada as a whole is quite new - just days old, even - and the projection model will take some time to buy that this is really what is going on and that it is something that will stick. But I assure you that if the NDP and Liberals are still tied at the national level on May 1, they will also be in the model. In fact, if this current rate of increase and decrease continues at the same pace, the New Democrats will pass the Liberals in national support late next week.

But if things reverse themselves - and to paraphrase Paul Wells, in Canadian politics the least interesting thing to happen is the most likely - the model's caution will be well-rewarded. And if they don't, there is still enough time for it to be reflected in the final projection.

Nevertheless, there still have been some major changes in the last 24 hours. The Conservatives remain stuck at 38.6%, but they have gained three seats and are now projected to win 150. The Liberals are down 0.5 points to 27.4% and four seats to 76, back under their standing at the fall of the government.

The New Democrats are up 0.8 points to 19% and one seat to 36, while the Bloc Québécois is down 0.2 points nationally to 8.2%. They remain at 45 seats, with the Greens unchanged at 5.7%.

The remarkable growth of the NDP can be seen in this regional breakdown. They are up about a full point in British Columbia, the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, an amazing amount of change in only one day. They are also up 0.5 points in Ontario and 0.3 points in Alberta.

Much of this has come at the expense of the Liberals, who are down 0.1 points in the Prairies, 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.4 points in Alberta, 0.5 points in Ontario, 0.8 points in Atlantic Canada, and 1.2 points in British Columbia. This has allowed the Conservatives to take a few seats from the Liberals, despite losing support in Ontario and remaining flat in Atlantic Canada.

In Quebec, the Bloc has dropped 0.6 points to 34.4%, while the NDP is now second in the province with 20.2%. Nothing like this has ever happened in the 30 months that I have been doing projections, so its significance cannot be understated. 

The Conservatives pick-up two seats in Ontario and one in Atlantic Canada from the Liberals. The two Ontario seats are Brampton - Springdale and Kitchener - Waterloo, where Parm Gill and Peter Braid are now the respective favourites. In Atlantic Canada, incumbent Conservative Gail Shea is once again projected to win Egmont on Prince Edward Island.

The New Democrats have picked up their seat in British Columbia. Don Davies, the incumbent, is the projected winner in Vancouver Kingsway.

In this case, the Liberals suffer most from the NDP surge. But who will be the next to fall?

There are 15 seats in the projection where the NDP is within 10 points of the leader. Two of those seats are held by the Bloc Québécois, five by the Liberals, and eight by the Conservatives. So the NDP could be a bit of an equal opportunity spoiler. But in a lot of close Conservative-Liberal seats, the NDP's increase in support could turn more than a few ridings over to Stephen Harper.

In gross terms, the Conservatives gains (seven "wins" over dissolution) are, mainly, at the expense of the BQ: it's not so simple, of course, the Cons are leading in the 11 seats they already held. Conservative gains are coming, mainly, in ON, and they are taking seats from Independents (Guergis), Liberals and the NDP.

The coalition bogeyman appears to work for the Conservatives. Given Ignatieff's low "leadership" scores, that's probably understandable. Canadians neither like nor trust him: why would they want him to become PM? They don't like Harper, either, but they do "trust" him to manage the country.

Life appears to be serving Ignatieff's Liberals lemons, but they are not making lemonade.

 

[ModlrMike]

I find it deliciously ironic that the Liberals have spent the last 6 years trying to cast Mr Harper as untrustworthy, only to see his trust index rise while Mr Ignatieff's falls.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com: is an interesting graph showing the popular support trends (from aggregations of polling data, which smooth out some of the rogue polls that show e.g. the Cons at 43% and the NDP leading the BQ in QC):

Please note the undecided vote - the hard to see grey line - a lot of the undecideds decided in the first week of the campaign, then they changed their minds in the third week; since then they've been stable at 15%. My guess is that is the share of the poll respondents who don't care and will not vote anyway.

 

[Old Sweat]

My thinking on this, and excuse the bad pun which will appear later, is that if the NDP edges up another point or so, it will result in a fairly large shift in seats between them and the Liberals and perhaps the same with the Bloc. This may not give the Conservatives a majority, but if their seat count is in the 148-150 range, they will have more than twice as many seats as the next largest party. It may not be a real majority, but it will be a moral majority. The opposition would have to think long and hard before denying them confidence and attempting to govern in their place.

It probably would also result in the resignation of Messrs Ignatieff and Duceppe within a very few months, and that suggests that neither party is apt to stir the pot until the leaves fly - the ones on trees, not the ones in blue and white, and perhaps not for at least a year.

 

[George Wallace]

This news may cause havoc in the polls:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act

Sync News

'Tweet-in' to flout Elections Canada blackout law

21/04/2011 4:52:36 PM

CBC News
LINK

Twitter users are vowing to push back against Elections Canada's ban on tweeting results before the polls close on May 2.

The country's electoral agency issued a warning to social media users this week, reminding them that Section 329 of the Elections Act applies to transmissions made over the internet.

Penalties for violating the act could include a fine of up to $25,000 or up to five years in prison.

Despite the agency's claim that it would be monitoring social media, many say they'll flout what they say is an outdated law.

"I wonder how many people we could get to take part in a 'tweet-in' protest against the election-night Twitter ban," tweeted Ottawa's Peter Raaymakers.

"I'm in," Montreal's Jason Mayoff tweeted.

"We should all tweet on May 2," tweeted Denis Gagnon of Timmins, Ont. "Either we flood the system and [Elections Canada] gets overwhelmed, or we all get fined and end up paying for #elxn41."

Others suggested tweeting election results using code names for the parties, or deliberately tweeting inaccurate results. By Thursday afternoon, the hashtag "#tweettheresults" was in use.

But some were unimpressed with talk of a "tweet-in."

"The 'tweet-in' protest against Election Canada's Twitter ban is stupid," tweeted Devon Peacock of London, Ont. "Just vote and leave it at that."

In its reminder about the transmission ban, Elections Canada said tweeting or posting results on a blog or Facebook wall violate the Elections Act.

Using Facebook's messaging service or emailing results do not.

Calls for amendment to act

Elections Canada has hinted it won't be actively monitoring social media for violations of the Elections Act but is bound to investigate any complaints brought to its attention.

The popularity of services such as Twitter mean it's time for the act to change, some say.

"Elections Canada cannot even hope to enforce s329 of the Elections Act... in the age of Twitter," National Citizens Coalition director and blogger Stephen Taylor tweeted Wednesday.

"Elections Act must be changed to remove s329 or to close polls across country at the same moment."

Changing the way polls are organized was a common suggestion.

"I don't get why they don't do more to align the polls across the provinces," tweeted Toronto's Ryan Coleman. "Open later east, close earlier west."

In 2006, the ban led some U.S. political bloggers to publish election results, skirting the law.

How will the Democratic process be affected by tweets from Atlantic Canada affecting Ontario voters ballot marking, and tweets from Ontario affect votes further West, and finally all these tweets affect the ballots in BC?

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

If the numbers continue with the Liberals and NDP in a dead heat I would question the wisdom of any coalition to the long-term health of the Libs.  Whatever Ignatieff wants quickly becomes irrelevant.  Replacing him ASAP, preferably with someone 20 years younger would be a priority.  I think a lot of Libs will be no-shows for confidence votes until they regain their direction.  As a conservative, the demise of the Liberal Party gives me momentary glee but concern at the leftward shift in Canadian politics.

 

[Edward Campbell]

If the numbers continue with the Liberals and NDP in a dead heat I would question the wisdom of any coalition to the long-term health of the Libs.  Whatever Ignatieff wants quickly becomes irrelevant.  Replacing him ASAP, preferably with someone 20 years younger would be a priority.  I think a lot of Libs will be no-shows for confidence votes until they regain their direction.  As a conservative, the demise of the Liberal Party gives me momentary glee but concern at the leftward shift in Canadian politics.

I'm not a Liberal, but if I was I would advocate for either Dominic LeBlanc - which preserves the Anglo/Franco rotation, or Scott Brison.

Both are young and not from Toronto.

The problem is that I see yet another Liberal civil war looming: the issue being that it is not an Anglo/Franco rotation but, rather, a Canada/Québec one. Both Denis Coderre (who I, as a staunch Conservative, really hope will lead the Liberals – to political oblivion) and Martin Cochon will fight for that position.

 

[Old Sweat]

If anyone is thinking that the second place party automatically gets a chance to rule, consider the example of the Diefenbaker/Pearson dustup of 1958. Unexpectedly the PCs had come first in the 1957 general election and formed a minority government. In early 1958 the new Liberal leader, Lester Pearson, demanded that the PCs hand power back to them, as the Grits, with their long experience in government, were better able to govern Canada. Diefenbaker went to the Governor General and an election was called which returned the PCs with a massive 211 seats. While the PCs had not been defeated in the house, that was a possibility, especially as Pearson had made his demand in response to the speech from the throne. Food for thought?

An article on the matter is here:

http://www.histori.ca/prodev/article.do;jsessionid=D99996AE20A14582C63694133C59C7B6.tomcat1?id=15376