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Election 2011

This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is, despite being full of caveats, a pretty fair analysis of what might happen in 2011 and, therefore, what might cause us to have an Election 2012 page:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/can-harper-wait-out-the-election-traffic-jam/article1863565/
Can Harper wait out the election traffic jam?

JOHN IBBITSON
Globe and Mail
Posted on Monday, January 10, 2011

If the Conservatives can survive the vote on their March budget, they will earn the equivalent of one year of majority government.

That’s because, thanks to the nationwide trend toward fixed election dates, we know there will be at least five provincial elections this autumn: Prince Edward Island (Oct. 3) Manitoba (Oct. 4), Ontario (Oct. 6), Newfoundland and Labrador (Oct. 11) and Saskatchewan (Nov. 7).

There simply isn’t enough money or enough volunteers to hold five provincial elections and a federal election in one season, especially when one of those provinces is Ontario.

The prospect of 12 months of electoral security – if they get it – will change the way the Conservatives govern. They hope to move from the crisis management associated with minority government to focusing on a few major priorities that will roll out over the course of the year. And they believe they have the man in place to make that new strategy happen.

It’s all about Nigel. Nigel Wright, former Bay Street tycoon, is officially on the job as Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s chief of staff. He is expected to dampen the for-the-throat partisanship that characterized his predecessor Guy Giorno’s tenure, and to focus more on the major policy objectives of 2011. His presence has a lot to do with the Tories’ hopes to govern as though they had a majority this year.

Caveat. Events, dear boy, can upset the best-stacked apple cart. The Conservatives have always been their own worst enemy, when it comes to derailing the government’s agenda. And if Mr. Wright finds himself enmeshed in conflict-of-interest controversies, thanks to his many business ties, he could become the story rather than staying in the background and shaping it.

One continent, one perimeter. Talks are still under way on measures to promote a continental approach to security, with any announcement now expected in February or later. The goal is to increase bilateral co-operation on screening people and goods arriving in either country. In exchange, the non-tariff barrier that has evolved along the 49th parallel since Sept. 11 – the product of ever-more-onerous American security demands – will at least partially ease. The challenge is getting the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which is deeply suspicious of what it sees as Canada’s lax border control, to compromise. Some Conservatives see continental security as one of the government’s major initiatives in 2011, if the two countries can strike a meaningful deal.

Caveat. Opposition parties, along with most Canadians, will unite against the proposals, if they undermine federal control over immigration and refugee policies, or if Canada surrenders autonomy over border security without getting a meaningfully thinned Canada-U.S. border in exchange.

It’s our Arctic. Putting a new polar icebreaker out to tender? Arming coast-guard vessels? Forcing every ship entering the Northwest Passage to obtain a licence? We don’t know what the Tories have in store for their 2011 Arctic agenda, but an agenda there will be. At the least, the federal government is expected to sign an international agreement on Arctic search-and-rescue responsibilities this spring, and there will be other measures that emphasize the Harper government’s commitment to the North.

Caveat. Meaningful commitments, such as that icebreaker, cost money. Any agreement on policing the Northwest Passage rests on American co-operation. And there could be dissonance, as the Conservatives are seen to bullishly assert sovereignty over Arctic waters while surrendering sovereignty to the Americans at the border.

Sharpening the ballot question. And that question is: Do you trust (a) the Conservatives to protect jobs, lower taxes and balance the budget over time, or (b) the Liberals, who promise new investments in home care and child care? At least, that’s what the Conservatives want the question to be, because they think more people will vote (a). So the Tories will hammer the economy question every day and in every way.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister’s Office released a letter from Mr. Harper to his caucus promising that the budget will concentrate on “the next phase of Canada’s Economic Action Plan to sustain the fragile economic recovery,” while still eliminating the deficit by 2015. Expect to hear more of this –in fact, nothing but this – over the coming weeks.

Caveat. Actually a lot of people do want help looking after young children and aging parents. And providing fresh economic stimulus while constraining spending and eliminating the deficit in four years is a hat trick that neither the Americans nor the Europeans think possible.

One last thing. If the opposition parties wake up to the implications of giving the Conservatives a full year of largely unfettered power, they might reconsider allowing the government to survive the budget. Critics darkly warn of the evils that will befall the country, if the Conservatives are given a majority. But if the budget passes, that’s essentially what we’ll have for 12 full months.


It only take one (at a time) of the three opposition parties to keep Harper in office, and both the Liberals and NDP will want to husband scarce resources for at least four of the five provincial elections Ibbitson suggests for 2011.
 
The real political battle of 2011, I contend, is between the Liberals and the NDP, as evidenced by this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/will-jack-layton-spoil-michael-ignatieffs-road-show/article1864806/
Will Jack Layton spoil Michael Ignatieff’s road show?

JOHN IBBITSON
Ottawa— Globe and Mail Update

Published Monday, Jan. 10, 2011

When things are looking down for Michael Ignatieff, he hits the road. This time, it’s a coast-to-coast swing aimed at getting voters and pundits to focus on 20 ridings the Liberals hope to take from the other parties in the next election, in contrast to the dozens of Liberal seats that Conservatives and some pundits claim are at risk.

“He is standing up and willing to be counted” for a caring and compassionate Canada, Toronto-area MP Martha Hall Finley said in an interview, as opposed to “the politics of fear, and mega-prisons and stealth fighter attack jets.”

But Mr. Ignatieff won’t be alone. NDP Leader Jack Layton, saying he’s healthy and in shape after his fight with prostate cancer, will also be criss-crossing the county.

The Liberals have taken to arguing that a vote for Mr. Layton or for Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is really a vote for the Conservatives, because it splits the progressive electorate.

“This sense of entitlement needs to be put into check,” NDP national director Brad Lavigne said. “It’s the Canadian people, not the leader of the Liberal Party, who decide who gets to be prime minister.”

A compendium of December polls produced by ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberal Party at 28 per cent support, well behind the Conservatives (who are at 35 per cent) and far, far from anything approaching a credible governing scenario.

To add to the party’s woes, there have been press reports citing unnamed Liberals who speak of unhappiness and discontent within the party and its election campaign team. Such fodder is the unhappy lot of opposition leaders, who can offer neither incentives nor punishments to impose discipline on the rank-and-file. Senior Liberals insist spirits are good and the party is ready for an election.

Mr. Ignatieff’s itinerary confirms that whenever that elections comes, it will be decided in the Greater Toronto Area and Southwestern Ontario. Half of the 11-day tour will be spent there.

Things begin, though, in the capital, with a visit to Government House Leader John Baird’s riding of Ottawa West-Nepean. The Liberal Party used to dominate Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, but now the city and the region are almost entirely Conservative outside downtown Ottawa, testimony to the gradual but virtually relentless erosion of support for the party among groups and in regions that it once took for granted.

Then Mr. Ignatieff is off to Vancouver and Winnipeg, followed by four days devoted almost exclusively to the Toronto and Southwestern Ontario. There are three days in New Brunswick and Quebec, after which Mr. Ignatieff returns to the GTA for the final weekend.

One purpose of the trip is to remind voters that, unlike Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s stiff and scripted public appearances, Mr. Ignatieff is perfectly comfortable in town halls and other informal settings in which the curious get to poke and prod him – verbally, at least – to their heart’s content.

The tour ends with a caucus retreat in Ottawa beginning Jan. 26 that candidates in ridings from across the country will also attend.

Mr. Layton is working ridings that his party picked up in the 2008 election, as well as seats the NDP believes are in the “next tier” of winnability, focusing mainly on Atlantic Canada, Northern Ontario and the West.

His presence on the roads is an uncomfortable reminder for the Liberals that the Conservatives will be warning of a “coalition with the socialists” if the Liberals get more seats in the next election. It won’t help Mr. Ignatieff that Mr. Layton is quite comfortable talking about coalitions and how they might work.


A coalition might work – just not a Liberal/NDP coalition because the two parties, combined, are highly unlikely to get 155 seats between them, and Jack Layton knows it. He also knows that the Liberals and NDP cannot survive in a minority coalition: the NDP will not be able to spend enough to pacify their core and the Liberals will not be able to balance the budget, which they must do to have centrist credibility. Both will end up paying a big price in the next election. The best hope for Ignatieff is that he can severely weaken the NDP and then, and only then, go after the Tories. The best hope for Layton is to help Harper destroy the Liberals.


 
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Here is what Patrick Muttart, former Deputy Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Stephen Harper had to say in the article referenced by Topp and Henry Olsen's (the author) conclusions:

http://www.aei.org/article/102714

He [Muttart] emphasized that working-class voters do not fit neatly on the traditional left-right continuum. They are fiscally conservative, wanting low rates of taxation and wanting government to live within its means, but economically populist, suspicious of trade, outsourcing, and high finance. They are culturally orthodox but morally moderate, in the sense that they don't feel their lives will change much because of how social issues play out. They are patriotic and supportive of the military, but suspicious of foreign adventures.
Most importantly, they are modest in their aspirations for themselves. They do not aspire to be "type A business owners"; they want to go to work, do what's asked of them, not have too much stress in their lives, and spend time with their families. They want structure and stability in their lives so that things are taken care of and they don't have to worry.

Drawing on Muttart's insights and my own thinking, I believe there are seven salient values or tendencies that are common to working-class voters across the decades. Call them the Seven Habits of the Working Class. They are:

Hope for the future
Fear of the present
Pride in their lives
Anger at being disrespected
Belief in public order
Patriotism
Fear of rapid change
...
Now consider these values in the light of the primary features of liberal progressivism. Liberal progressives inherently crave rapid, transformational change; working-class voters abhor it. This was as true in the 1960s (the Great Society) and the early Clinton years as it is today. The impatience that characterizes liberal progressivism often leads to the impression that its apostles feel contempt and disdain for those who disagree; working-class voters sense this and react against it. Liberal progressivism requires high tax rates, not only on the rich but also on the middle and working classes (overseas, this is accomplished via the VAT); working-class voters know this will choke off economic growth and increase the financial stress in their lives. Liberal progressivism typically displays less concern with public order and the institutions that provide public order; working-class voters opposed this in the 1960s and 1980s when it appeared that crime was rampant, and they remain sensitive to it to this day.

Looks like the Tory political tactics to me. I believe Harper's political strategy is to destroy the Liberal Party so that he/the Conservative Party (which will have absorbed many former Liberals) face a beefed up NDP (being reinforced with even more Liberals) and a Liberal rump.


The quote above is related to this one, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/why-stephen-harper-will-trigger-a-spring-election/article1867837/
Why Stephen Harper will trigger a spring election

GERRY NICHOLLS
From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Here’s some free advice for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff: Be afraid, be very afraid.

Okay, that’s more like a warning than advice, but it’s a warning Mr. Ignatieff should heed. He needs to understand that while he’s playing political chess, his opponent, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, is waging total war.

To be blunt, Mr. Harper’s ultimate strategic goal really isn’t to win a majority government – it’s to eradicate the Liberal Party as a viable political force.

Sound overly dramatic? Well, consider the well-documented ruthlessness of Mr. Harper’s political style. Consider, too, that he’s a master tactician who likes to concoct long-term strategies. And, finally, consider the fact that he just doesn’t like Liberals. It all adds up to a prime minister who’s capable, willing and able to take out Canada’s “natural governing party.”

Indeed, his desire to eliminate the Liberals is something he and I discussed way back in the days when we worked together at the National Citizens Coalition. His theory, as explained to me, was that conservatism would be better served in this country if Canada had a two-party system, one that pitted right against left, free enterprise against socialism, Conservatives against New Democrats.

He believed that, in such a polarized political environment, a conservative-oriented party would have a huge advantage over its left-wing rival. When given a clear choice, voters will usually pick conservatism over socialism.

This polarization, however, could not take place as long as the Liberal Party – with its chameleon-like ability to change ideological colours – was around to muddy up Canada’s political waters.

Mr. Harper also has personal reasons for wanting to decimate the Liberals. In his view, the Liberals have exhibited an anti-Alberta bias since the days of Pierre Trudeau, a bias that resulted, among other things, in the disastrous national energy program. For this, Mr. Harper holds a grudge, and he wants payback.

He has pursued his anti-Liberal agenda with great tactical skill. For one thing, he has zeroed in on the Liberal Party’s chief weakness: its lack of financial resources.

Recall that one of his first acts as Prime Minister was to make it illegal for individuals to contribute more than $1,000 to a candidate or political party. This was done to financially cripple the Liberal Party, which has traditionally relied on fewer and wealthier donors. Then, in an attempt to deal a death blow, Mr. Harper unsuccessfully tried to cut off the Liberals from their public subsidy.

Mr. Harper is also trying to cut off the Liberals’ ideological oxygen. He’s done this simply by stealing their policies. The Conservatives have essentially adopted the Liberals’ “big government” and “big spending” agenda.

In the process, Mr. Harper had to jettison his own conservative principles and values, but, to his mind, it was a necessary sacrifice to neuter the Liberals. After all, how can the Liberals mobilize their base against a government that’s essentially implementing Liberal ideas?

Of course, Mr. Harper is lucky in that the Liberals are also unwittingly aiding in their own downfall. The party’s recent uninspired leadership, combined with its incessant infighting, has helped tarnish the Liberal brand.

What all this means is that Mr. Harper, like a hungry predator circling a weakened prey, is set to move in for the kill. That’s why it’s likely he’ll try to trigger a federal election this spring. As Napoleon once said, “In war there is but one favourable moment; the great art is to seize it.”

The Conservatives face such a moment: They won’t get any stronger and the Liberals won’t get any weaker. It’s the perfect opportunity for Mr. Harper to roll the dice.

Gerry Nicholls is a political consultant and a former vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition.


If Nicholls is correct, and I think he is, then:

1. Mr. Harper wants something akin to British politics – Conservatives vs. Labour, with a or maybe a few small, rump parties on the edges; and

2. We ought to hope he fails because voters, in a free country, tend to “throw the rascals out" every now and again, as thet do in Australia, Britain and here in Canada, too. Do we really want three to 10 years of NDP government every five to 15 years when we "throw the (Tory) rascals out?"

What we have had, in Canada, for at least 100 years, is essentially centrist government from both the Liberals and Conservatives – sometimes a bit too far to one wing or the other (e.g. too far left in the late ‘60s and throughout most of the ‘70s), but centrist all the same because both the Conservatives and Liberals, although they may have campaigned ‘left’ or ‘right,’ generally governed from the centre-left, centre, or centre-right, sometimes despite the wishes of the prime minister and party activists. It would not be the same if we had a British style two party system with clear left/right distinctions. The Conservatives might shift towards a pale copy of tooth and claw US Republicans but the NDP is unlikely to become an imitation of the US Democrats who, despite the rhetoric – from the Republicans and their own activists, are not anything like socialists.
 
Good news, as far as I am concerned, in this piece, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-draw-line-in-election-sand-over-corporate-tax-cuts/article1868330/
Tories draw line in election sand over corporate tax cuts

JANE TABER
Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Thursday, January 13, 2011

Stephen Harper and his Conservatives are spoiling for an election fight with Michael Ignatieff over the controversial issue of tax breaks for big corporations.

In separate interviews Wednesday, both the Prime Minister and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty dared the Liberal Leader to keep campaigning on what they characterize as his policy of tax increases.

Mr. Ignatieff has said the Liberals would not support the minority Tory government if it continues with its plan to cut the corporate tax rate while Canadians families are struggling and the deficit sits at record heights.

But Mr. Flaherty turned around the Opposition Leader’s arguments. Speaking to The Globe and Mail, he said he has no plans to back down on his decision to cut the corporate tax rate - and if Mr. Ignatieff wants to campaign on that, then bring it on.

“We are going to stay the course on that and if Mr. Ignatieff wants to run on a platform that says he is going to raise taxes, so be it. We’ll have a good debate,” Mr. Flaherty said after a speech in Washington on Wednesday.

“He wants to raise taxes. He wants to go to the Canadian people and tell them that he wants to raise taxes, raise business taxes that already have been voted for by Parliament, have already come into effect. That’s his choice. That’s not where we are; we want to create more jobs in Canada,” Mr. Flaherty said.

The Finance Minister said the lower business tax rates are beneficial for Canada. “We have a higher dollar, which is tough on manufacturers, but we have a terrific advantage because of our lower taxes on the people who actually create jobs in Canada, which are small, medium and larger size businesses.”

The Prime Minister echoed that sentiment in an interview with Postmedia published Thursday.
“I won’t kid you, and I think it’s one of the reasons why I don’t think a minority will go on forever – this government will not make compromises that it believes are damaging to the Canadian economy,” Mr. Harper said. “We have made it a fundamental principle of our government since we got into office that we would have a competitive tax structure for job creators, for employers in this country.”

The election rhetoric has heated up this week when Mr. Ignatieff began his winter tour –an 11-day blitz of 20 ridings in which the Liberals think they could make gains. As he hit the road Wednesday, the Liberal Leader repeated that his party could not support the Harper government’s plan to reduce corporate taxes.

He said it doesn’t make sense to give corporations a break when the deficit is at $56-billion, calling the tax cuts one of the key differences in priorities between the Liberals and Tories. The Conservatives, Mr. Ignatieff charged, are more interested in big spending on new stealth fighter jets and prison cells while his Liberal are focused on helping families cope with aging parents, their children and their retirement savings.

To coincide with the launch of his tour, the Liberal Leader’s team also released a document asking Canadians whether they’re better off today than five years ago, when the Harper minority government was first elected. It’s a question they hope will frame the next election campaign.
A senior Ignatieff official says with Canadians now beginning to think about filing their income tax return, the Tory corporate tax cuts will resonate. Through their research, Liberals are “getting back ‘Well, isn’t that dandy. I’m actually just turning to my income tax now. I’m not getting a break and these large corporations are getting a break,’” the official said.

“It’s all about priorities. They know they don’t want the government to be spending any more money. They don’t. But they say, ‘Okay, out of what you’ve got why don’t I get any attention?’”

With a report from Kevin Carmichael in Washington


I think that a good (expensive and slick) advertizing campaign can say “Ignatieff and the  Liberals want to raise taxes and take away your job. Sure, he promises to cut your income tax by a tiny percentage but how will that help when your ‘income’ is from EI? Will the Liberal Party of Canada give you a job? I hope so, because if they form the government they will raise taxes on business, big, medium and small and then those businesses will slow or stop hiring new people and even cut existing jobs.”

Also, Harper needs to say: “Look, we compromised with the Liberals and the NDP – we spent more on the recovery and, therefore, ran up a bigger deficit than many Conservatives thought was necessary - because that was what the Liberals and NDP demanded. But now we need to recover through budget control and job creation. Governments do not create real, productive jobs – business, small and large, do that. Now is a good time to give job creation a boost by making it easier for business to hire new people – maybe you, maybe your husband, maybe your daughter or son. Ignatieff and the Liberals want to hit business with job killing taxes; they want you to be unemployed so that they can reward special interests. Now is not the time to kill jobs.”

 
ERC:
Do we really want three to 10 years of NDP government every five to 15 years when we "throw the (Tory) rascals out?"

If the NDP had a Gary Doer, it may not be horrific.

Re tax cuts. On the news down here, the talk was of the opportunities in near by Canada vis-a-vie all the late night corporate tax increases in Illinois. Reported to be an increase of 66%, but I do not know what the the rate is to start with.
 
Gary Doer was an dipper, but largely ran this province like a left leaning middle of the road conservative. That does not mean he was loved, he just had no competition. It was still a NDP government, and the changes to many of the rules and laws reflect that.

Mostly I would say he was pragmatic.....

ERC....go write policy for the Cons....the ones they got there now aren't doing much.... ;D
 
Two articles from the National Post.

Go for it Mr. Harper.

I must laugh (cry) when I read Jack Layton saying "It's not right' when he and his wife living in Toronto/Ottawa sucked a million dollars out of the Canadian taxpayer. Now his son is a Toronto city councilperson. It's like generations of welfare recipients.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/politics/Opposition+lashes+Harper+party+subsidies/4105853/story.html

Opposition lashes out at Harper vow to end party subsidies


Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News • Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s opponents say his plan to campaign on killing direct financing for political parties is irresponsible, arguing the current subsidies are good for democracy.

The Liberals and New Democrats made it clear Thursday they have no intention of agreeing to repeal the subsidies introduced in the past decade, saying they ensure the ideas of voters are represented by vibrant political parties that no longer have to rely on “big money” from the business community.

But on Thursday, Mr. Harper wasn’t backing down on his plan — first revealed in an exclusive interview this week with Postmedia News — to make the end of the subsidies a “clear plank” of the Conservatives’ election platform.

“A subsidy where parties make no effort whatsoever to raise money is not acceptable, I don’t think, to Canadian taxpayers,” Mr. Harper said during a news conference in Toronto.

Also Thursday, the opposition reacted to two other comments made by Mr. Harper in the Postmedia News interview: that the opposition parties will try to immediately form a coalition government if the next election produces another Tory minority; and that the current minority Parliament appears headed for a conflict over the government’s refusal to bend to opposition pressure to back down on corporate tax cuts.
Liberal House leader David McGuinty mocked Mr. Harper over his allegation that a coalition is in the works.

“Apparently, we’re also going to be causing a hailstorm, and we’re going to be causing flash floods,” said Mr. McGuinty. “This is nonsense talk from the prime minister, who is desperate to try to create a bogeyman. He’s now retrenched, backed himself into a corner, and he’s lurching and he’s lashing out.”

And while Mr. Harper continued to bang the drum in Toronto over the need for corporate tax cuts to create jobs, NDP leader Jack Layton said he thinks the more pressing concern should be for people such as the seniors he recently met who can’t pay their heating bills.

“The banks and oil companies may be out of the recession, with profits of those companies soaring, but the average Canadian is not out of the recession,” Mr. Layton said.

“If he wants to campaign on that, if that is what he is deciding to do, I guess he can go out and explain that. I think a lot of Canadians feel that they get gouged by some of these companies.”

Mr. Harper’s government is preparing a budget to be tabled in February or March and speculation is swirling over whether it will be defeated by the opposition parties, thereby sparking an election.

In the Postmedia News interview, Mr. Harper spoke candidly about how he hasn’t given up on repealing direct subsidies for parties.
In late 2008, shortly after the last election, the Conservative government introduced an economic update that proposed to end the system of direct funding for political parties.

The subsidy was put in place in 2003 after the Chretien government banned contributions to parties from businesses and unions, and also set a $5,000 contribution limit from individuals (later reduced by the Harper government to $1,100.) The rationale was that if the parties were limited in how they could raise funds, they should be at least able to rely on public financing.

Under the system, parties receive every year just over $2 for every vote they received in the previous election — which amounts to $27-million a year given to the parties.

Critics said the government’s plan was a mere ploy because the Tories, thanks to their strong fundraising system, are less reliant on the public subsidies. They said the Conservatives knew that, if the subsidies were ended, rivals such as the Liberals could be left bankrupt. The Tories shelved their idea to avoid being toppled.

Mr. Harper told Postmedia News he thinks there is a clear role for some public finance (for instance, people get tax receipts to encourage them to contribute to parties)
.
“But it has got to be tied to a party’s own efforts, or to the willingness of voters to actually contribute this money,” Mr. Harper said. “And that’s not the case here, so it remains our position that that particular subsidy should be repealed.”

Mr. McGuinty said the Liberals support the subsidies because they enable a system that removes “private sector” money from politics. He accused Harper of putting forward a “self-serving” proposal.

“It’s an attempt by Mr. Harper to try to position himself as ‘Mr. Fiscally Responsible.’ If he was so fiscally responsible, he wouldn’t have spent $50-million on 9,800 signs across the country advertising infrastructure projects.”

Mr. Layton was equally supporting of the subsidies.

“A key element of democratic reform was to make sure that political parties represent the ideas of Canadians and can have their ideas considered in the public discourse.”

Ending the subsidies would have dire consequences, Mr. Layton warned.

“You’re going to end up with those who are able to ante up the bucks getting heard. And that is not democratic. It’s not right.”


http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/01/14/tasha-kheiriddin-no-more-bucks-for-ballots-harper-firm-on-ending-political-subsidies/#more-24804

Tasha Kheiriddin: No more bucks for ballots: Harper to stop political subsidies

January 14, 2011 – 9:15 am

Kudos to Prime Minister Stephen Harper for pulling a Rob Ford… and standing firm in his intent to stop the gravy train for Canada’s political parties. This week Mr. Harper reiterated the Conservatives’ pledge to campaign for the repeal of public political subsidies – prompting predictable outrage from opposition parties.

I say “predictable” because when one crunches the numbers, the Tories leave the other parties in the fundraising dust. Remove the public subsidies and Michael Ignatieff would be riding a bicycle, not a bus; Jack Layton, a unicycle. Meanwhile, Gilles Duceppe and Elizabeth May would be on foot.

In 2009, parties received $27-million in per-vote-subsidies. The Bloc Québécois received $2,757,912 for receiving 10 per cent of the national vote, the Conservatives received $10,410,324 for receiving 37.7 per cent of the vote, the Green Party received $1,873,820 for 6.8 per cent of the vote, the Liberals received $7,260,920 for 26.3 per cent of the vote and the NDP received $5,026,804 for 18.2 per cent of the vote.

This is compared to the money raised by direct donations to the parties. According to the quarterly returns by parties on Elections Canada’s website, in 2009, the Bloc fundraised $834,762.42; the Conservatives raised $17,770,477, the Greens raised $1,166,874.20; the Liberals raised $10,120,312 and the NDP raised $4,039,104.10.

The “bucks for ballots” scheme was implemented in 2004 by former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien, yet another poisoned chalice left to his successor, Paul Martin. The legislation decimated the Grits’ corporate fundraising by setting a $5000 limit on donations. The Tories subsequently lowered that limit to $1,100 and banned all business and union contributions after they took office in 2006.

The result is not more democracy, as the opposition claims, but less. Taxpayers are forced to subsidize parties for whom they would not vote. They also subsidize incumbency, as parties with the most votes are favoured over parties with the fewest. And the restrictions don’t stamp out business or union influence; corporations in particular end-run them by having their executives make individual donations.

Parties should rely on funds from their supporters, and no one else. While Mr. Harper deserves full credit for pledging to scrap the subsidy, there remains the issue of income tax rebates for political donations. Why do donors to federal political parties benefit from write-offs akin to contributors to charities? While some parties and their leaders may well appear to be charity cases on certain days, that doesn’t mean they should get the same benefits. That issue, however, has yet to find a champion on Parliament Hill.


 
At the risk of repeating myself (even more) here is what I said about this six months ago:

E.R. Campbell said:
Although I regard Tom Kent as one of the principle architects of the decline (and at least stumble of not, yet, fall) of Canada (see: Kingston Conference, 1960) I agree with what he says in this piece, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/paying-for-politics-and-putting-power-where-it-should-be/article1685363/
First: I agree with Kent that a 2011 election is more likely than one in 2010.

Second: I am not unalterably opposed to ALL public financing of political parties but the formula for whatever funding is to be provided should be much, much less generous than today. (Today parties get $1.75 per vote; I think $0.05 per vote, multiplied by the number of provinces and territories in which the party gets, say, 7.5% of the vote, which would produce a maximum of $0.65 per vote, would be more than generous and would, as any public financing scheme should, actively penalize e.g. the Bloc Québecois for being a provincial party in a national legislature.) ($0.65 per vote would have netted the Liberals about $2.3 Million; $0.05 would have netted the BQ nearly $69,000 rather than the $2.4 Million they actually got.)

Third: I think $2,500.00± is a fair personal donation limit – offset by a sliding scale of tax deductibility: something generous like 85% of the first $750.00, 70% of the next $750 and 50% of the remaining $1,000.00 - aiming to reward the small donor. I would favour an absolute prohibition on any donations of money or services from any other entity like a corporation, firm, union, church or any other group; individual donations by individual Canadian citizens only should be the rule.

Finally: Prime Minister Harper should make election financing reform a major platform plank; it will appeal to many (most?) Canadians and it is the right thing to do.


I stick by that; some public financing is permissible, if only to keep big business and big labour away from politics.



 
Yikes! All that reading made my eyeballs sore...

Here's what I actually know (it's ok, it ain't much):

- not 100% on Harper, but they'd get my vote tomorrow if they wanted it.
- I'd vote for the Taliban before I voted Liberal.
- The thing that irates me more than politicians: voter apathy. I can only assume that being sheeple is comfortable and requires less thinking...
- Tht new chicken bacon thingy frm KFC? absolutely fantastic!
 
Harper's problems lie in the loose cannons in his cabinet (no pun intended).  With the media all aware of his wife's preferred social companion's residence in the closet, and a "family values" minister who knocked up a younger woman while married to someone else, there's plenty of ammunition out there should another party choose to use it.  Canada's mainstream media can't be counted on to sit on such stories forever; breaking them in the midst of a campaign could suppress core voters in an act of disapproval of such conduct.


You have to play the hand you're dealt, and I suspect the Right Honorable Mr Harper would prefer a few less wild cards in the deck.
 
On again, off again coalition. Frankly, if two or more parties were to announce they were willing to work together to form a coalition in advance I'd take that under consideration, but not this "peek a boo" coalition thing.

http://paulsrants-paulsstuff.blogspot.com/2011/01/ignatieff-and-star-caught-in-major-lie.html

Ignatieff And The Star Caught In A Major Lie....

So the Star was quick out of the gate to defend Ignatieff from the new Conservative ads about to be released. Pretty much expected. The l;arger problem for both Ignatieff and The Star is the article contains completely false information. From the Star article:

"After appearing at Toronto’s Harbord Collegiate Institute, Ignatieff denied supporting a coalition against the government, and said Canadians should think about what the Conservatives aren’t saying in the ads. (Liberal support for a coalition to defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper predated Ignatieff as leader.)

Two problems. Number one, Ignatieff supported the coalition with Dion as leader and then himself when chosen as Dion's replacement. Number two, despite Bob Rae's misleading, no, make that lie, Ignatieff signed the coalition pact. (seee picture above).

"Interim Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Wednesday he's prepared to vote out the Conservatives and enter into a governing coalition with the NDP if next month's federal budget isn't in the country's best interest.

"I told caucus I will vote non-confidence in this government. I am prepared to enter into a coalition government if that is what the Governor General asks me to do," he said during an Ottawa news conference shortly after the Liberal party's national executive appointed him to replace Stéphane Dion.

Need more proof?

1. He told Canadians, "I would not exclude making arrangements or agreements...with other parties that will allow me to govern." (Macleans, February 16th, 2009)
2. "Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said he's always been prepared to work with other parties to form a coalition…" (Hill Times, May 17, 2010)
3. Ignatieff told the Canadian Press that he was open to forming a coalition with the NDP but that he would not talk about it until after an election. (Canadian Press, June 6, 2010)
 
And the Conservative's ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x5otmNy1iE&feature=player_embedded
 
dapaterson said:
Harper's problems lie in the loose cannons in his cabinet (no pun intended).  With the media all aware of his wife's preferred social companion's residence in the closet, and a "family values" minister who knocked up a younger woman while married to someone else, there's plenty of ammunition out there should another party choose to use it.  Canada's mainstream media can't be counted on to sit on such stories forever; breaking them in the midst of a campaign could suppress core voters in an act of disapproval of such conduct.


You have to play the hand you're dealt, and I suspect the Right Honorable Mr Harper would prefer a few less wild cards in the deck.
You are seriously trying to say that outing one of the Conservative Cabinet Minister's as gay would provide ammuntion to either the NDP or the Liberals?  In what sense would that not boomerang?

As for the infidelity thing- I don't think any Party wants to go there.  Lots of MPs are away from their spouses for lots of the year.  That tactic could be like nuclear war- everyone gets destroyed.
 
Something else to throw into the mix, shared in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright  Act....

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says he'll bring down his next budget in March.

He says the budget will contain no major new spending, but says he is open to discussions with the New Democrats about helping seniors.

The minority Conservative government needs the help of at least one opposition party for the budget to pass a vote in Parliament.

Flaherty has said in the past he is open to making some room in the budget to meet at least some demands from the opposition.

The NDP have called for an additional $700 million to the Guaranteed Income Supplement.

Flaherty says his budget plan for eliminating the federal deficit in five years is on track.
 
Verrry interesting, and maybe an anomaly.

The following story from the National Post web site is reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Tories hit 43% support: poll

Mike Cassese/Reuters Files

Postmedia News · Tuesday, Mar. 1, 2011

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have opened up a wide lead against their political rivals in public favour and would be close to winning a majority if an election occurred now, a new poll has found.

The national survey, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National, found that the Tories are now supported by 43% of decided voters — up by four points from early February.

That finding by pollster Ipsos Reid is significant, as the level of support is near the threshold that experts believe the Tories need to win their long-coveted majority.

The Conservatives haven’t been this popular since they enjoyed a brief spike in the polls in December 2008 when Canadians were opposed to the opposition parties’ efforts to create a coalition government.

The new survey shows the Tories have a 16-point lead over the Liberals, led by Michael Ignatieff. The Grits, who have been trying to stoke voter anger over the government’s performance, have the support of 27% of voters, up by two points.

Jack Layton’s NDP appears to be in political decline as it makes demands to the government over what should be in the budget. The New Democrats would receive 13% of the vote, down by five points.

Similarly, the Green party, led by Elizabeth May, is in trouble. It would receive five per cent of the vote, down by five points.

Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois has 10%of the vote nationally and still has a commanding lead in Quebec.

“What you’re seeing in the numbers is a continuation of a trend that started over the past two months,” said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker on Tuesday.

“And one could say that with these types of numbers, the Tories are well poised to potentially form a majority.”

Bricker said that two major factors are at work: Canadians are generally optimistic about the economy and are giving credit to the Harper government, and the negative Conservative TV ads which take aim at Ignatieff’s political ambitions and patriotism are working.

“The Tories have been uncontested on television screens in this country,” said Bricker.

“The only thing that people know about Michael Ignatieff is what the Conservatives have told them.”

Bricker said another trend is occurring which works in the Tories’ favour: They are increasingly attracting support beyond their traditional base.

The new poll finds the Tories receiving more support from middle-income Canadians, women, university-educated voters and foreign-born Canadians.

“They’re flattening out those demographic differences and becoming more mainstream,” said Bricker.

The poll finds strong support throughout the West for the Tories, including in British Columbia, where there are some key seats up for grabs in the next election.

Most importantly, said Bricker, the Conservatives remain well ahead in vote-rich Ontario. That province has tended to be volatile in recent months, with voters changing their voting intentions almost by the week.

But this is the second straight poll where the Tories are strongly in first place in Ontario, suggesting that the vote there is solidifying.

The federal political parties are preparing for the possibility of an election that could be precipitated by a budget in late March.

The odds of an election occurring hinge on whether Harper decides to avert one by including enough concessions in the budget to secure the support of the NDP.

In every region but Quebec, the Tories are leading in public opinion.

In Ontario, the Tories stand at 45%, compared to 33% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 4% for the Green party.

In Quebec, the Bloc is supported by 41% of decided voters, with the Liberals at 27%, the Tories at 19%, the NDP at 6%, and the Green party at 4%.

In B.C., the Tories have 48% of the vote, compared to 22% for the NDP, 21% for the Liberals and 8% for the Green party.

In Alberta, the Tories stand at 68% support, while the Liberals have 17%, the NDP have 10% and the Green party has 4%.

In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 59%, while the Liberals and NDP both have 17% and the Green party has 7%.

In the Atlantic region, the Tories are at 52%, followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 12% and the Green party at 4%.

The poll was a telephone survey of 1,001 adult Canadians taken Feb. 23-27 and its national results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the regional results are: B.C. (9%); Alberta (9.8%); Manitoba/Saskatchewan (12.1%); Ontario (4.9%); Quebec (6.2%); Atlantic Canada (12.1%).

Postmedia News
 
That number seems too high.  My underinformed guess is that Conservative popularity as measured by polls is just a proxy for the electorate's distaste for a federal election (ie. a warning to the other parties not to serve themselves first).
 
More tidbits into the mix.....

1) Ipsos Reid's latest numbers, via Reuters:
The Conservatives have built enough voter support to win the majority government that eluded them the past two elections, according to a poll released on Tuesday amid speculation an election could be held this spring.  The Conservatives have 43 percent support of decided voters, compared to the Liberals at 27 percent, New Democrats at 13 percent and Bloc Quebecois, at 10 percent, according to the Ipsos Reid survey.  Pollsters say a party usually needs to win the support of more than 40 percent of the voters to win a majority government that does not require at least some support from the opposition parties to pass major legislation.  The survey for PostMedia News and Global TV said it is the strongest voter support Prime Minister Stephen Harper's party has enjoyed since early 2009 …. Although the Ipsos Reid survey showed the Bloc Quebecois with only 10 percent support nationally, the party only runs candidates in Quebec and are far ahead of the other parties in that province at 41 percent.  The random survey of 1,000 adults was conducted from February 23 to February 27 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

2)  Next budget coming up 22 Mar 11:
The Conservative government will hand down its federal budget on March 22, setting out a financial plan that could begin the countdown to a May election.

It will be Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's sixth budget in a minority situation, but this year it's unclear if the document will survive more than a few days.

The Tories need the support of at least one opposition party to pass the budget and the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois have all but declared they will not support it.

That leaves the government's fate in the hands of the NDP, which wants to see several measures, including tax relief for seniors and breaks on home heating.

Flaherty says there will not be any big new spending and insists he will not raise taxes ....

3)  Canada's spending plan for 2011-2012 released this week (DND bits attached) - more from MSM here.
 
Dennis Ruhl said:
Easy prediction.  The NDP will fall on their swords with a nudge from Harper.

Actually they will present the budget, and then call an election, blaming the opposition for lack of support.  There is a potential downside of negative public perception with waiting for defeat in the House.  Iggy might make the claim that he has the Conservatives on the ropes.
 
Security and Defence Forum is chopped, I see.  Waiting for Bercuson, Granatstein et al to start snivelling about their stipends being cut.

SDF is (for now) online at: http://www.forces.gc.ca/admpol/SDF-eng.html


EDIT:  Mea culpa - missed the footnote: "Authority will be sought in 2011-12 for the renewal of this transfer payment program."
 
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