CP-140 Aurora

[Fabius]

I have doubts about the financial wisdom of this decision.
We are going to spend more than $2 Billion dollars in around 2020 to upgrade what will be 40 year old aircraft so they can fly until 2030.  Given the increasing age of the aircraft I think it is a fairly safe assumption that a) As the aircraft increase in age they will require more O&M funding to actually operate and b) As the maintenance bill increases the readiness and availability of the aircraft will go down.
If these assumptions are correct we will see the CP-140s flying less hours while costing more and at the end of the additional 10 years we operated them we will spend another $2 + billion to buy new airframes anyway.

Perhaps instead of upgrading old airframes we should spend the money in 2020 to purchase new airframes period.

Although it’s not an apples to apples comparison and I realize there are ancillary costs to adopting a new platform, it is interesting to note that in July 2013 the US placed an order for 13 P -8 Poseidon with Boeing. Total cost of the order (planes and mission sets) $2.04 Billion US.  Additionally in 2009 India  negotiated a deal with Boeing for 8 P-8s at a cost of $2.1 Billion (US), and has since added another 4 aircraft to their order.


My opinion is that choosing to upgrade vice replace is going to likely cost Canada more over the long term than simply spending the cash up front.  Penny wise, Dollar foolish.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I was interested to see the comment "it was the Air Force's idea to scrap the purchase".  Yup, I am pretty sure the Comd RCAF said "hell no, we don't want new aircraft!".  ;D

 

[4Feathers]

The key senior leadership positions in the RCAF seem to be all filling up with "Fighter Group" personnel. The latest is MGen Wheeler, not to mention the CDS himself. I would not be surprised to see the focus of any new major procurements in the RCAF reflect this trend. It is what it is.

 

[Kirkhill]

By the 2020 - 2030 timeframe what quality of sensors are going to be available?

What is going to be possible from Satellites, LTAs and UAVs?

Given that those sensors will be operating in "friendly skies" with operators and interpreters remote from the risks associated with the platforms, what is the need for those services to be supplied by military personnel?  The government is only funding 65000 "unlimited liability" PYs.  Should some of those PYs be allocated to these very low risk jobs?  Or should the low risk jobs be farmed out to the Civvies and those high risk PYs be husbanded for sharp end positions?

Maybe Patrol Aircraft will still be needed.  Maybe the Poseidon will prove to be the solid performer the Orion has been....

Maybe the job won't be done the same way it is today.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

What is going to be possible from Satellites, LTAs and UAVs?

Given that those sensors will be operating in "friendly skies" with operators and interpreters remote from the risks associated with the platforms, what is the need for those services to be supplied by military personnel?  The government is only funding 65000 "unlimited liability" PYs.  Should some of those PYs be allocated to these very low risk jobs?  Or should the low risk jobs be farmed out to the Civvies and those high risk PYs be husbanded for sharp end positions?

Maybe Patrol Aircraft will still be needed.  Maybe the Poseidon will prove to be the solid performer the Orion has been....

Maybe the job won't be done the same way it is today.

LRP is, IMO, a sharp end position.  Maybe I'm misreading your post.

Civies and satellites aren't going to do the down-low work that needs to be done sometimes.  There are viable sub-surface force threats out there and in numbers.  ASW is not something learned over night and IMO not something to just 'toss away'.  You might never have a house fire, and most people don't but when you have one isn't the time to start training firefighters.  :2c:

Having said that, recent years have proven that LRP assets are far from one trick ponies, the fleet isn't even thru the AIMP complete, and crews are still logging hours.  Like every other part of the CAF, we are 'facing change' with budgets and realities. 

I think the Buffalo has a few years on the Sleek Greyhound of Death; I remember those flying around when the Argus was in service. 

 

[PuckChaser]

By the 2020 - 2030 timeframe what quality of sensors are going to be available?

What is going to be possible from Satellites, LTAs and UAVs?

Maybe the job won't be done the same way it is today.

Unfortunately that's the same sort of thinking that had us trade Avro Arrows for BOMARC missiles, remove guns from F4 Phantoms (I know, a US example), and mothball our Leopard C2 tanks.

 

[ArmyRick]

Not my field of knowledge for sure. It will be interesting to see what happens with this in the coming years.

 

[Kirkhill]

LRP is, IMO, a sharp end position.  Maybe I'm misreading your post.

Civies and satellites aren't going to do the down-low work that needs to be done sometimes.  There are viable sub-surface force threats out there and in numbers.  ASW is not something learned over night and IMO not something to just 'toss away'.  You might never have a house fire, and most people don't but when you have one isn't the time to start training firefighters.  :2c:

Having said that, recent years have proven that LRP assets are far from one trick ponies, the fleet isn't even thru the AIMP complete, and crews are still logging hours.  Like every other part of the CAF, we are 'facing change' with budgets and realities. 

I think the Buffalo has a few years on the Sleek Greyhound of Death; I remember those flying around when the Argus was in service.

I agree.  LRP work is a sharp end position.  No question.

And I don't expect the requirement to disappear.  I do wonder though, how much of the domestic SovPat load can be done by other means both currently and in the future.  Perhaps LRP work could be more of an expeditionary capability in the future?  Don't know.  Just askin'.

I would expect the balance of capabilities to change over time.  2013 is a long way past 1993 in technology and I would expect 2033 to look a lot different as well.

And while BOMARC was the wrong solution at the wrong time, I think it is hard to argue that that balance of capabilities has shifted away from manned fighters vs manned bombers to a Beyond Visual Range fight that targets missiles with missiles.

 

 

[Zoomie]

I think the Buffalo has a few years on the Sleek Greyhound of Death;

1967 - just a few more years.

 

[MarkOttawa]

I was interested to see the comment "it was the Air Force's idea to scrap the purchase".  Yup, I am pretty sure the Comd RCAF said "hell no, we don't want new aircraft!". 

Lt.-Gen. Blondin Jan. 2013--last bit:

...
Another example is the CP-140 replacement. We’ve had a big, four-engine plane because it needs range, it needs to fly for 12-14 hours, it needs to carry people in the back, it needs to carry torpedoes and all the sensors. Does the replacement also have to be big? If you look at what is available, you’ve got the Boeing P-8 and Lockheed Martin’s C-130J adapted for maritime operations, but all of these are big airplanes that cost a lot of money. And that puts pressure on the entire air force. What if I could do business differently in 20-30 years? What if I could use a smaller, cheaper airplane to carry just a few people with some equipment in the back, and combine it with a UAV, or even a couple of UAVs, controlled by the mother ship, that would be carrying the torpedoes and the sensors. We can see this coming on our horizon. The technology is not there yet but it may be there in 20-25 years. And if I buy a big airplane now to perpetuate the way I am doing business, I may not be able to take advantage of this. If I could extend the Auroras for another 15-20 years and maintain the capability I have, that would buy me time. I want to turn this into an opportunity to look at concepts for the future...
http://vanguardcanada.com/seeking-alternatives-new-rcaf-commander-turns-to-technology/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Sub_Guy]

The problem with the LRP community is that joe public doesn't know what we bring to the table.  Behind nearly every Navy drug bust is a LRP asset, but what do we hear on the news?  Not much, the LRP community was mentioned recently in a press release, and quite frankly I damn near fell off my chair.

The other problem is that fighter guys care about fighters, so if it came down to fighters or LRP assets, then fighters it is!  The LRP job just isn't sexy enough.

Airborne ASW is an expensive skill to maintain, but it can't be done with a UAV, it can't be done in a Dash-8, we need a plane that has the legs and the ability to reach out and touch someone.  Right now our modernized Cp-140 aircraft are the best out there, even against the P-8, I would put our crew against anything the USN can throw together. 

Ask a submariner, the one thing they are afraid of is the sound of a P-3 buzzing around. 

 

[dapaterson]

I would argue that adding uavs to the mix would be a significant force multiplier.  UAV for sense, CP 140 for sense and strike.  Much better legs on some UAVs.

 

[Sub_Guy]

As soon as UAVs can start delivering sonobuoys then yes

 

[Journeyman]

As soon as UAVs can start delivering sonobuoys then yes

I guess yes it is then.


George I. Seffers, "Two-in-One Unmanned Aircraft," SIGNAL Online, February 25, 2013.  www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/10719‎
"The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) includes a removable payload bay that is about 12 inches wide, 38 inches long and six inches deep with 'bomb bay doors' for dropping payloads, such as sonobuoys.'  You could use a UAV to deploy a sonobuoy field, which would be pretty exciting,' Tayman says."

If the MQ-1 Reaper can carry 1,700 kg or ordinance (360 kg internal / 1,400 kg external), I don't see sonobouys as being too problematic.

 

[Sub_Guy]

You wouldn't get one of our sonobuoys in that bomb bay.  If UAVs were viable ASW platforms you'd see countries going that route, but you don't. 

There is a reason why you have a big plane for ASW, sonobuoys and Torpedoes take up space, not to mention current effective ASW is done at lower altitudes, which effectively takes the UAV out of the equation. 

The USN is stumbling with the P8 and it's high altitude ASW.

 

[AirDet]

I guess yes it is then.


George I. Seffers, "Two-in-One Unmanned Aircraft," SIGNAL Online, February 25, 2013.  www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/10719‎
"The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) includes a removable payload bay that is about 12 inches wide, 38 inches long and six inches deep with 'bomb bay doors' for dropping payloads, such as sonobuoys.'  You could use a UAV to deploy a sonobuoy field, which would be pretty exciting,' Tayman says."

If the MQ-1 Reaper can carry 1,700 kg or ordinance (360 kg internal / 1,400 kg external), I don't see sonobouys as being too problematic.

One sonobouy does not a field make....

 

[Fabius]

Dolphin_ Hunter
Do you see any concerns with utilizing the current CP-140s out until 2030? 

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

The problem with the LRP community is that joe public doesn't know what we bring to the table.  Behind nearly every Navy drug bust is a LRP asset, but what do we hear on the news?  Not much, the LRP community was mentioned recently in a press release, and quite frankly I damn near fell of my chair.

The other problem is that fighter guys care about fighters, so if it came down to fighters or LRP assets, then fighters it is!  The LRP job just isn't sexy enough.

Airborne ASW is an expensive skill to maintain, but it can't be done with a UAV, it can't be done in a Dash-8, we need a plane that has the legs and the ability to reach out and touch someone.  Right now our modernized Cp-140 aircraft are the best out there, even against the P-8, I would put our crew against anything the USN can throw together. 

Ask a submariner, the one thing they are afraid of is the sound of a P-3 buzzing around.

Thanks for posting this, the valuable intelligence work done by assets such as the P-3 is something we often neglect to take into consideration.  I'd also like to point out that given the increasing danger from asymmetric threats, these planes may also prove significant value to the army as well.  I'll share this article with you on the use of US P-3 Orion aircraft in the Jamaican military raids in 2010 to capture Christopher Dudus Coke, leader of the Jamaican street gang "The Shower Posse."

Courtesy of the Jamaica Gleaner
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111209/lead/lead1.html

Edmond Campbell, Senior Staff Reporter
PRIME MINISTER and Minister of Defence, Andrew Holness, has revealed that the United States Government provided surveillance assistance to the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) through the presence of an aircraft over Tivoli Gardens during the May 24, 2010 operations in the West Kingston community to serve a warrant on convicted drug lord Christopher 'Dudus' Coke.

Minister of National Security Dwight Nelson during a post-Cabinet press briefing on Wednesday dismissed claims made by The New Yorker, an American magazine, which detailed the role of a P-3 Orion aircraft which assisted the Jamaican Government during the Tivoli operations.

Yesterday, Holness sought to set the record straight, pointing out that the US was not involved on the ground but only assisted the local military with surveillance imagery and equipment.

During an emergency press conference at Jamaica House yesterday afternoon, the prime minister moved to quell growing speculation that the Government was hiding information about the involvement of the US.

No photographs

At Wednesday's post-Cabinet briefing, Nelson had said: "In discussions with the Jamaica Defence Force and the Jamaica Constabulary Force, no images and no photographs were supplied to the Jamaica Defence Force or to the Jamaica Constabulary Force during this operation. I have made absolutely sure (about this) prior to and since this report has been published."

The national security minister had also said the US government "did not, at any time, participate in the operations in Tivoli Gardens".

But yesterday, in giving details about the role of the US, the prime minister said the Americans made an offer to provide surveillance and technical equipment to the Jamaican Government and the offer was accepted. Holness said diplomatic notes were exchanged by the US and Jamaica through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs which was part of the normal protocol.

"The technical term used is general imagery assistance and communications," the prime minister noted.

According to Holness, "specifics" in relation to the provision of the technical assistance was known only by the JDF and the "relevant agency in the United States".

He said the Ministry of National Security was not involved in the details of the arrangement and therefore "the minister (Nelson) would not have been aware of the specifics of the assistance involved".

Holness said: "No foreign force participated in anyway or form in the operations on the ground in Tivoli Gardens."

Chief of Defence Staff Major General Antony Anderson said the equipment provided by the US "was part of normal agreements we have with the United States and other governments who supply equipment to the Jamaica Defence Force".

"At that time, what we wanted was an enhanced picture if it was available. The more information we had would lead to better planning. The planning that took place was between ourselves and the Jamaica Constabulary Force, no one else," Anderson said.

Picture of the plane over Kingston, Jamaica

Op GARDEN PARISH Photo

Tivoli Don, Dudus Coke in DEA custody after extradition to United States

 

[Journeyman]

You wouldn't get one of our sonobuoys in that bomb bay......

I have no dog in this fight.  You said "As soon as UAVs can start delivering sonobuoys then yes," so I merely posted a link that affirmed UAVs can deliver sonobouys.

 

[dimsum]

'll share this article with you on the use of US P-3 Orion aircraft in the Jamaican military raids in 2010 to capture Christopher Dudus Coke, leader of the Jamaican street gang "The Shower Posse."

I'm sorry, that's the best name they could give themselves?  >

Re:  using P-3s for Army support, we already did with Auroras in EX Maple Resolve a few years ago.  I'll assume they still get used on large-scale EX like that.