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If TF 1-08 is short (and I think your refering to 2VP and if not I apologize) why do we have an extra platoon from which to draw from (that has not been yet)?
Edit to remove quote for PERSEC reasons.
ANALYSIS: CRISIS IN DARFUR
Will she finally see peace?
Is a 26,000-strong UN force finally going to bring relief to the millions of victims in Darfur’s conflict? It’s a modest first step, observers tell CHRIS COBB, but don’t hold your breath just yet
With files from Agence France-Presse and Reuters
The situation in Darfur is so hopelessly chaotic that the prospect of a massive United Nations peacekeeping force, coupled with fresh diplomatic efforts this weekend, are arousing barely a glimmer of optimism that people there will stop killing each other. Four years of fighting in the semi-arid Sudanese province have killed at least 200,000 and have left two million others homeless. Rape, torture, random slaughter, kidnapping and all manner of other brutality has been perpetrated by a dozen or more battling factions — notably, the pro-government Janjaweed, nomadic Arab tribesman who observers say are armed by the government and used to “cleanse” the province of non-Arabs. The government denies any involvement in the Janjaweed’s brutality.
On Tuesday, the United Nations agreed to send 26,000 troops to Darfur, an area roughly the size of France, to boost an existing force of 7,000 ill-equipped African Union troops whose efforts to stabilize the region have failed.
The UN resolution, championed by new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and backed by U.S. President George W. Bush, is, at best, seen by experts as a small step forward into a complex morass that runs the gamut from local tribal rivalries to highstakes international deal making. The UN resolution needed agreement from all five permanent members of the Security Council — the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China — but China, with major energy interests in the oil-rich country, backs the Sudanese government, which in turn accommodates China’s interests. This mutual interest has, say observers of the UN, given the resolution fewer teeth than Mr. Brown, especially, wanted.
“The Sudanese government has been playing the Chinese like their own cello in the Security Council,” says Fen Hampson, director of Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. “Britain was willing to compromise because they realized that best was going to become the enemy of the possible. So it’s not a great resolution by any means, it’s just a very modest step in the right direction.”
Dealing with the various factions and complex and constantly changing intertribal rivalries in the Darfur conflict is the major stumbling block to any short-term ceasefire, let alone lasting peace, says Mr. Hampson.
“It’s like dealing with Jell-O,” he says. “You hit it with a hammer and it flies in different directions. The (Sudanese) government obviously has some leverage over the Janjaweed, but it’s not clear how much. It’s a highly factionalized, intractable conflict. The other problem from the beginning is that Sudan regularly falls off international radar. One hopes this latest resolution keeps the spotlight on Darfur and puts pressure on all the parties. It’s the only way this will move forward.”
This weekend’s meeting of the various Darfur rebel factions in Arusha, Tanzania is key to any future progress, adds Mr. Hampson. Rebels, split into about a dozen groups, are meeting to work out a single negotiating position for peace talks with the government, and a date and venue for the negotiations.
Meanwhile, implementation of the UN resolution by Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir will show how serious the Sudanese government is taking the new initiative, says Mr. Hampson.
“If they start dragging their feet, which they are quite capable of doing, the peace talks will go nowhere,” he said. “And then you’ve got a real problem, because the Sudanese government pretty much decides where the peacekeeping force can go. It’s a peacekeeping force in a straitjacket.
“But peacekeeping will only work if there is a peace to keep,” he adds, “and the only way we’ll see movement in that direction is if there is movement in the negotiations.”
Mr. Hampson’s colleague, international law specialist Chris Penny, says the UN resolution is the best option under delicate circumstances and should lead to a reduction in violence in places where the UN troops are allowed to operate.
“The question is, does the violence just get pushed elsewhere?”
But Mr. Penny sees the resolution as a potentially viable compromise.
“It leaves control with the Sudanese government,” he said, “but at least it’s a little more constrained than it was. It’s a signal, albeit not as forceful as it might be, that this is an issue of international concern and it’s a signal that China is on board more than it has been.”
The UN Security Council could impose a tougher resolution on Sudan, as it did on Iraq after Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait in 1990.
“But invasion would not necessarily be successful,” said Mr. Penny. “You’re seeing in Iraq how difficult it is to consolidate peace when people don’t want you there. So although the authority exists, it’s not practical to expect it will be used any time soon.”
Sudan is seen by the United States as an exporter of terrorism, but much of the involvement of the otherwise engaged Bush administration has been prompted by the influential Christian right in the United States, which says minority Christians in Darfur are being victimized by Sudanese government forces and need protection.
But it’s clear that Gordon Brown is leading the current initiative, says Stephen Lewis, Canada’s former ambassador to the UN.
Mr. Lewis, who retired last year as the UN Special Envoy on HIV-AIDS in Africa, says Mr. Brown’s intervention is “the single most hopeful thing that’s happened around Darfur in the past three or four years. His determination to turn Africa around runs through his veins.”
Mr. Brown is the only G8 leader who has been consistently public in his commitment to Africa during the past several years, says Mr. Lewis.
“He has never flagged on education, conflict, poverty and disease in Africa,” he adds. “One gets the impression he is carving out a position for the United Kingdom that is independent of U.K. involvement in Iraq, and part of that is his commitment in Darfur.”
But whatever the UN resolution achieves, cautions Mr. Lewis, will depend on how the resources are given to the 26,000 troops, most of whom will be African.
“They will need logistical help, food and transport,” he says. “It will take a significant financial commitment, and whether they get it or not will be the true test of whether this is real or another fly-by-night proposition. But I’m inclined to think Brown is very serious about it.”
Mr. Lewis urged the Harper government to commit money to the UN’s Darfur effort. (This week, the federal government added $48 million to the nearly half a billion dollars it’s given for humanitarian aid for Darfur over the last three years.)
“And we should do everything in our power to provide the kind of development aid to relieve the suffering and do something about the sexual violence,” he says. “There is a small nation of seriously traumatized women in Darfur, which is an ongoing aftermath of this crazed, brutish and depraved behaviour. We should be taking the lead on these gender issues.”
A Darfur peace deal was reached with the Sudanese government in Abuja, Nigeria in May 2006, but it was only endorsed by one of three negotiating rebel groups. Violence has since spiralled and splinter factions have flourished.
“The most immediate hurdle remains the rebels’ lack of unity and political vision,” said a report published last month by the Small Arms Survey.
In an interview with the BBC’s Africa network, Sudan analyst Julie Flint says the peace talks under way this weekend have little hope of success either because the rebels represented at the talks in Tanzania are only part of a complex situation on the ground in Darfur.
“In looking at this as a government-rebel problem, we’re addressing the wrong problem,” she said. “I would bet you money that most of the people who have died this year in Darfur have been Arab militias and government soldiers. The worst fighting has been between Arab groups once armed by the government now fighting each other.”
After a day of preliminary meetings, the talks kicked off in earnest late Friday, but without the Sudan Liberation Army led by Abdel Wahid Mohammed Nur, the founding father of the rebellion and a member of Darfur’s largest tribe. Mr. Nur’s faction contests the legitimacy of the many splinter rebel groups and also argues talks with the government should only be considered once the new “hybrid force” of UN and AU peacekeepers is deployed.
“The more you recognize individuals as faction leaders by inviting them to talks like those in Arusha, the more factions there will be, and consequently disorder on the ground,” his spokesman, Yahia Bolad, told Agence-France Press.
Fen Hampson agrees that the talks are fragile, but he is slightly more optimistic.
“The key is to use this UN resolution to gain some political momentum,” he says. “The peace process in difficult conflicts often has modest beginnings. And you’ve got to start somewhere.”
TN2IC said:You watch... the NDP will say something. I have one of those "feelings".
Sig_Des said:Is that like one of those feelings in your gullet of something to come, tastes a little like bile?
Want to help? Sure, but consider all the costs of sending troops to Darfur
ROB HUEBERT
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
August 7, 2007 at 3:06 AM EDT
The announcement that several states will be deploying troops to the Darfur region of Sudan is a very positive development for that war-ravaged country. This breakthrough, however, creates a difficult situation for Canada. There will now be calls for us to contribute as well. This is a noble sentiment, but any future decision must be made with a full understanding of the costs to Canada. Many assume such a mission would be preferable to our mission in Afghanistan, but a close consideration of the Sudanese reality does not support such a conclusion.
For example, it is assumed the Sudanese intervention will be a traditional peacekeeping operation. This is based on the belief that the current negotiations will lead to a peace settlement between the rebels and the government. Unfortunately, this flies in the face of all previous actions by the regime in Khartoum, which has shown no hint of giving up its policies of genocide and destruction any time soon. The sad reality is that Khartoum will not end such horrific policies until it is forced to. And this means that to solve the "problem" of Sudan will require the use of military force. Thus, any Canadian deployment that is to be meaningful would probably be more violent and dangerous than the current deployment in Afghanistan.
Another assumption is that the intervention can, or will, be done without the Americans. Regardless of one's view of U.S. foreign policy, the reality remains that if the U.S. does not commit troops any mission is likely to be unsuccessful. Canada has already discovered it cannot deploy by itself as it attempted to do in Central Africa. The power needed to successfully force the Sudanese government to stop its atrocities and those of the militias could only be provided by the United States, if it is willing to deploy.
A third assumption is that Canada can support both the Afghan mission and a deployment to the Sudan. If the Canadian commitment to either is to be meaningful, and not simply tokenism, this is simply wrong. Had the Canadian military not faced significant cuts in the 1990s, it could be possible to talk of both a meaningful Afghan and Sudanese mission. But with today's troop levels, Canada has limited choices. It can either pull out of Afghanistan when its official commitment ends in February, 2009, and redeploy to the Sudan or it can make one mission its main priority and send token forces to the other.
The costs of the first option should be made clear. If Canada pulls out of Afghanistan in 2009, there is a real possibility other contributing states may also re-examine their decision to stay. Likewise, a Canadian withdrawal will be interpreted by the fundamentalists' forces in that country as a victory. Correctly or not, the decision to redeploy will be seen as a reaction to the recent casualties suffered by Canada. And if al-Qaeda, in turn, comes to believe Canada is a "soft target" the chances of an attack on Canada itself increase.
Broadly speaking, the discussion of committing forces to Sudan is understandable. Canadians do not want to see the agony of the Sudanese people continue. But until Canada succeeds in rebuilding its forces (assuming that it is allowed to continue to do so), it will be faced with making hard decisions. A commitment to remedying the crisis in Darfur is noble, but it comes at a greater cost than most Canadians are aware. Any decision must be made on the basis of the existing facts and not on wishful thinking.
Rob Huebert is associate director, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary.