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Haligonian said:Thanks for this. So I struggled with this as I wrote the original post. Is a combat tm still relevant in a world where we can find and precisely destroy individual AFVs and fighting positions? If most of the time we need to defeat an adversary's will to resist vice destroying them incrementally then do we need to assault? If we can reach out thousands of kilometers with precision munitions do we still need to seize ground and is holding terrain viable?
I think our most recent operations, the Stephen Biddle article on lessons learned from Afghanistan is a good example, show that we will still be forced to close with an enemy in order to find them. In Desert Storm the majority of Iraqi fighting vehicles were also destroyed by Abrams and Bradley fire vice air delivered munitions and that was in a desert against a conventional enemy with us having air supremacy. This will be exacerbated by our enemy forcing us to fight in complex terrain. In such operations tanks, and tank infantry cooperation will remain effective if not required. Defeating our ISTAR efforts will be a major effort by our enemies. Further, ISTAR takes time. COIN and Peace Support are likely to give us the time to conduct ISTAR "soaks" and what not. Major Combat, however, will likely push the tempo which means the time between decisive actions and shaping ISTAR actions are likely to be shorter. This will place the onus on maneuver forces to gain and develop contact.
I would also propose that precision munitions are low density items. Against a real opponent such as a Russia or China how long before the west goes bingo on PGMs and how long and how much does it cost to get production ramped up. Further, the platforms that deliver those munitions are low density and maintenance intensive. So perhaps we execute some impressive shaping operations in Ph 1 of campaign A. What happens if Campaign A doesn't win the war?
The question of how do Cbt Tms face this kind of fire power may be moot. I'm saying that there is still a requirement for an assault and that likely isn't going away. I'm also saying that combined arms, with tank infantry cooperation as the center piece, at the sub unit level in the form of a cbt tm (not square) still seems like a good approach. To assault or hold terrain requires mass. The Cbt Tm provides this in terms of its ability to mass fires, both direct and indirect at the right time and place, defeat and lay obstacles, and provide the ability to assault the enemy in order to effect destruction or seize terrain. In the defence it provides the ability to hold terrain or effect destruction through mobile operations in depth. But to do all this it has to mass. This massing has to be protected. This means conditions setting must take place. Air and potentially sea superiority must be gained, C2, and fires assets must be disrupted and the arty/c-btry battle must have been won. I don't think that is all that different from what we've done since WW 2 really. Once we've cleared the skies of enemy air and ISTAR assets, and disrupted their ability to control and actually fire their IDF systems then we have an environment that allows for the massing of high signature combat power.
Another question is just what technological fixes are being pursued to the problem of vehicle, and maybe even personnel, signatures to ISTAR assets? Is it possible to make a Cbt Tm invisible to thermal? If we could do that reliably and at a reasonable price then we would have a bit of a game changer. On a more feasible note, we should be buying vehicles that can run turret watch for hours/days on batteries without having to start the engines. The LAV 6.0 is horrible for this. To run the radios she pretty much needs to run all night. This would make us much more survivable in the defence.
All things we need to take a good, hard look at.
Perhaps the biggest game changer will have to be putting economics of scale into the production of "smart" munitions. Consider that your "smart phone" costs @ $600 Cdn, yet contains within most of the things any smart weapon will have within, including accelerometers, GPS, cameras, two separate communications systems (Cellular and Wi-Fi) an accurate clock (and/or a connection with an atomic clock via the network)...
Ordering and building munitions (and almost everything else) on an assembly line basis rather than essentially getting individual "bespoke" items solves a multitude of issues, including cost reduction, providing depth for prolonged operations and allowing the use of mass (Third Offset theory involves using cooperative "swarms" of weapons and sensors). This is much like the huge assembly plant at Willow Park churning out B-24 "Liberator" bombers at a rate of one every 24 hours during WWII brought down the prices of the bombers and allowed 1000 bomber raids.
Camouflage and masking will need to be brought into a new generation as well. Devices like the BAE IR masking panels (which allow vehicles to "present" themselves as cars, trucks or farm machinery) or more futuristic ideas like metamaterial coatings to refract electromagnetic waves around the protected device will tip the balance back towards the defense (although when anything is going to actually make it out of the lab is problematic).
Still this is going to be one of those "wicked" problems that is going to need to be looked at from lots of different angles.