CMMA - replacing the CP140 Aurora

[Spencer100]

“Good day, PSPC. I see that there was an interesting RFP that closed several weeks ago, but notwithstanding that the solicitation period has ended, and that I don’t meet all the mandatory requirements, I would like you to re-open the tender and allow me to submit my non-compliant proposal, so that the GoC customer can revise their requirements and accept my offer.

With best regards,

signed,
Good2Golf”


I can’t believe I missed out on all those great opportunities to get some of my taxes back…

You are missing the redacted part in the first sentence (really the important part...Redacted......My major shareholder and some guy from a Caisse Du depot was at Harrington Lake last weekend they told me to put a bid in and start major PR campaign. They also said they are flying to Toronto and Quebec to talk to some people too.

 

[Rifleman62]

....was at Harrington Lake ......

Why would he want to meet with Sophie? Justin doesn't live there. Just a visitor.

 

[Furniture]

....was at Harrington Lake ......

Why would he want to meet with Sophie? Justin doesn't live there. Just a visitor.

I'd rather spend a weekend with her than with him...

 

[GR66]

According to this article timing of a Canadian P-8 purchase could be critical in actually keeping the production line open. Any significant political delays could actually strengthen Bombardier's position. Hopefully the US Administration will/has put enough pressure on the Liberal Government to avoid that situation.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/07/20/selling_the_p-8a_poseidon_short_967331.html

 

[OldSolduer]

Hopefully the US Administration will/has put enough pressure on the Liberal Government to avoid that situation.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/07/20/selling_the_p-8a_poseidon_short_967331.html

In other words "Justin you are damn well going to purchase this or we'll fucking start (insert nefarious American scheme here)

And you know what? We deserve it.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

According to this article timing of a Canadian P-8 purchase could be critical in actually keeping the production line open. Any significant political delays could actually strengthen Bombardier's position. Hopefully the US Administration will/has put enough pressure on the Liberal Government to avoid that situation.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/07/20/selling_the_p-8a_poseidon_short_967331.html

They really don’t get that the Bombardier plane DOES NOT EXIST and isn’t “similarly capable”.

* the RN operates zero P-8s. The RAF operates 9.

 

[Spencer100]

According to this article timing of a Canadian P-8 purchase could be critical in actually keeping the production line open. Any significant political delays could actually strengthen Bombardier's position. Hopefully the US Administration will/has put enough pressure on the Liberal Government to avoid that situation.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/07/20/selling_the_p-8a_poseidon_short_967331.html

Timing still won't work

"Canada responds with an order that follows on rather than aiming at the end of the decade, it’s possible the line can be kept open."

You think even if Canada signs this year the RCAF and the government would be able to receive them that fast? The current fleet is still in some phase of upgrade. The government will take a hit for scrapping "newly upgraded" planes and/or a hit for canceling contracts. That won't fly. Or receive new planes and have them sit for a couple of years?

One thing here that seems more Boeing selling pressure than not. Taking Canada out of it, if say India comes to Boeing after the line P-8 line is shut for a year and says I would like 24 more....Boeing is going to say "No" BS....

The main part is the airplane...its a 737-800. they have made over 7000 of the NG's. Yes they stopped building NG for the MAX but they could still build them. And they have the E-7 orders going to start that are 737-700 new builds.

Yes some of the sub suppliers would be more of an issue.

I could see us paying the line restart charge just cause.....It's what we do...

OT Good idea fairy here...we can fund the integration of the P-8A systems into the 737MAX and call it a P-8B...

 

[captloadie]

There was still a lot of demand for the C-17, but they didn't restart that production line.

 

[Spencer100]

There was still a lot of demand for the C-17, but they didn't restart that production line.

Not real demand as in here is a cheque. Plus the plant and tooling are gone.

This is a very different case. Boeing is being a bit calulating here using past examples like the C17. The plant is still there and building 737's. Yes NG v MAX but still 90 percent the same. They also have orders for new build 737 NG for the E-7 in the out years. Now here is the reason Boeing is talking like this. Commercial 737NG production is ended for 737MAX. The P-8 is a case study of Commercial/military production. In the past Commercial airplanes were build as nornmal and then sent somewhere else to be modified fir military work and mission systems. The P8 was build in line with Commercial units as part of the regular build schedule. The bomb bays where just another option on the assembly line. This was new to this type of work.

When Boeing say the line is closing they mean that model and optional extras are not available in the new model year.

Also for the E-7 they are building new then sending them to be cut up and mission systems added.

OT then you have the tanker and airforce one.....those are different things again.

 

[PuckChaser]

Just sign a sole source with Bombardier to replace the Challengers, with the requirement that they never mention CMMA again or the Challenger replacement goes open bidding as well...

 

[KevinB]

Not real demand as in here is a cheque. Plus the plant and tooling are gone.

Being does have the ability to re-open the C-17 line, but they are focused on the replacement (the fleet here and most other countries has vastly surpassed planned hours and landings). You would need a pretty big checkbook to encourage re-opening, the number I heard was 80+ (subject of course to National Security needs here and how their next gen air movements program goes

This is a very different case. Boeing is being a bit calulating here using past examples like the C17. The plant is still there and building 737's. Yes NG v MAX but still 90 percent the same. They also have orders for new build 737 NG for the E-7 in the out years. Now here is the reason Boeing is talking like this. Commercial 737NG production is ended for 737MAX. The P-8 is a case study of Commercial/military production. In the past Commercial airplanes were build as nornmal and then sent somewhere else to be modified fir military work and mission systems. The P8 was build in line with Commercial units as part of the regular build schedule. The bomb bays where just another option on the assembly line. This was new to this type of work.

I think you’re fooling yourself if you think Boeing is going to re-open P-8A production for a sub 100 order.

When Boeing say the line is closing they mean that model and optional extras are not available in the new model year.

Also for the E-7 they are building new then sending them to be cut up and mission systems added.

Not really the E-7A is being purpose built during production. It’s not an a la crate menu.

OT then you have the tanker and airforce one.....those are different things again.

? The KC-46 is built from 767’s not 737’s
KC-135’s where based on the 707, and the KC-10 was based on the DC-10 which is a true orphan fleet down here as there where only 60 built and 58 in service with the USAF.
Both the 135 and 10 are being phased out as the KC-46 comes on line and the KC-X program maybe comes to fruition.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Actually I believe in the case of the KC135 it was the prototype for the 707.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

You think even if Canada signs this year the RCAF and the government would be able to receive them that fast?

Yup. 100%. I’d even take a WAG that this is all being looked at with options presented to appropriate Commanders on different COAs.

The current fleet is still in some phase of upgrade.

Not necessarily related…

The government will take a hit for scrapping "newly upgraded" planes and/or a hit for canceling contracts. That won't fly. Or receive new planes and have them sit for a couple of years?

You don’t remember the Canadian government building an $11 million mess hall at CFB Summerside and then closing the base.

There will be a transition period. Aurora will still do the business while initial cadre training/conversion takes places, while the Fleet starts preparing for P-8 MOAT (Maritime Operational Aircrew Training). Decisions will be made about current ORBATs and Sqn structure.

As a bonus, we have the Lessons Learned from the American, Aussie, Kiwi and Norwegian folks who all successfully transitioned from P-3 to P-8.

Maybe not common knowledge, but Canadian pilots and ACSOs have been and currently are flying P-8 with Allied air forces.

Cancelling the upgrade of the 140; right now I would describe Block 4 as throwing good money away after bad - the more important and vital consideration is being able to maintain an operational capability, a credible one. I would suggest the success of the mission system upgrades as told by people like Hood are “inflated”.

Making haste to replace the Aurora in quick time should be seen as correcting an error made previously during the tenure Blondin has as RCAF Comd, and perhaps short part before him.

my 2 cents on my decade+ around the fleet…I’m certainly not all knowing or infallible and my experience is limited to the Tactical level. But I know what is/isn’t working over the last decade and am aware of a disconnect between what senior leaders think we are capable of vice what we are capable of.

 

[Spencer100]

Being does have the ability to re-open the C-17 line, but they are focused on the replacement (the fleet here and most other countries has vastly surpassed planned hours and landings). You would need a pretty big checkbook to encourage re-opening, the number I heard was 80+ (subject of course to National Security needs here and how their next gen air movements program goes


I think you’re fooling yourself if you think Boeing is going to re-open P-8A production for a sub 100 order.


Not really the E-7A is being purpose built during production. It’s not an a la crate menu.

? The KC-46 is built from 767’s not 737’s
KC-135’s where based on the 707, and the KC-10 was based on the DC-10 which is a true orphan fleet down here as there where only 60 built and 58 in service with the USAF.
Both the 135 and 10 are being phased out as the KC-46 comes on line and the KC-X program maybe comes to fruition.

Not trying to be to argumentive....but I was trying to show the difference between building a P8 and E7. With the knowledge that the line is really not dieing as in the case of C17. With the P8 its like you ordered your mustang with a convertible roof at the dealer and it was made that way at the factory with the parts from ASC and the sheet metal stamped as a convertible. In the case of the E7 you go to used car dealer and he takes a mustang off the lot and they cut the roof and then adds the ASC parts. That's the UK buy. Others were take a new build and then cut the roof off. The USAF E7 buy is different again they are taking last years model asking them build it this year but then also upgrading the wiring because USAF etc. Then it goes to get the holes cut into it at the garage around the corner also.

Then Airforce One Boeing is taking a kick in the nuts on that....its late and over budget on Boeings dime....but Trump bent them over on it. Fixed price contract....they sold the USAF two unsold 747-800 for conversion. It has cost Boeing more money to rewire the thing than to have build new ones. Mistake were made on the scope of work it would take to wire. Boeing's mistake.

The tanker again was Boeing's fault on a fixed price contract. But that story is a shit show starting with people going jail and senators and rebids.

 

[Spencer100]

Yup. 100%. I’d even take a WAG that this is all being looked at with options presented to appropriate Commanders on different COAs.



Not necessarily related…



You don’t remember the Canadian government building an $11 million mess hall at CFB Summerside and then closing the base.

There will be a transition period. Aurora will still do the business while initial cadre training/conversion takes places, while the Fleet starts preparing for P-8 MOAT (Maritime Operational Aircrew Training). Decisions will be made about current ORBATs and Sqn structure.

As a bonus, we have the Lessons Learned from the American, Aussie, Kiwi and Norwegian folks who all successfully transitioned from P-3 to P-8.

Maybe not common knowledge, but Canadian pilots and ACSOs have been and currently are flying P-8 with Allied air forces.

Cancelling the upgrade of the 140; right now I would describe Block 4 as throwing good money away after bad - the more important and vital consideration is being able to maintain an operational capability, a credible one. I would suggest the success of the mission system upgrades as told by people like Hood are “inflated”.

Making haste to replace the Aurora in quick time should be seen as correcting an error made previously during the tenure Blondin has as RCAF Comd, and perhaps short part before him.

my 2 cents on my decade+ around the fleet…I’m certainly not all knowing or infallible and my experience is limited to the Tactical level. But I know what is/isn’t working over the last decade and am aware of a disconnect between what senior leaders think we are capable of vice what we are capable of.

Thanks for that. I'm just looking at it through the politics and industrial light.

And being a devils advocate...I love the chit-chat.

I learn more stuff with the back and forth.

 

[KevinB]

Yup. 100%. I’d even take a WAG that this is all being looked at with options presented to appropriate Commanders on different COAs.



Not necessarily related…



You don’t remember the Canadian government building an $11 million mess hall at CFB Summerside and then closing the base.

The 1 PPCLI and Reg HQ building in Currie Barracks joint the chat.
Open for all of what was it 14 months before the closure. IIRC the official opening occurred after the base closure announcement.

There will be a transition period. Aurora will still do the business while initial cadre training/conversion takes places, while the Fleet starts preparing for P-8 MOAT (Maritime Operational Aircrew Training). Decisions will be made about current ORBATs and Sqn structure.

Assuming a deal come in circa Labor Day, it would appear that the RCAF could get airframes in fairly short order.

As a bonus, we have the Lessons Learned from the American, Aussie, Kiwi and Norwegian folks who all successfully transitioned from P-3 to P-8.

Maybe not common knowledge, but Canadian pilots and ACSOs have been and currently are flying P-8 with Allied air forces.

Someone had posted a picture of a RCAF pilot in a USN P-8A, I think in this thread. Which bodes well for the IOC timeframes.

Cancelling the upgrade of the 140; right now I would describe Block 4 as throwing good money away after bad - the more important and vital consideration is being able to maintain an operational capability, a credible one. I would suggest the success of the mission system upgrades as told by people like Hood are “inflated”.

I think most people who even casually observed the M/LRP field were puzzled by the decision towards Block IV as opposed to the P-8 back then.

Making haste to replace the Aurora in quick time should be seen as correcting an error made previously during the tenure Blondin has as RCAF Comd, and perhaps short part before him.

my 2 cents on my decade+ around the fleet…I’m certainly not all knowing or infallible and my experience is limited to the Tactical level. But I know what is/isn’t working over the last decade and am aware of a disconnect between what senior leaders think we are capable of vice what we are capable of.

IMHO the Aurora replacement back then fell victim to GWOT priorities. The outlook perhaps changed when you guys started doing sorties supporting those missions, but reality didn’t fully strike home until the understanding of what was happening to the airframes and upgrades versus a new aircraft in terms of long term costing and viability of the role etc.

It’s pretty clear that some former Brass are invested in enhancing their wealth from Bombardier over a realistic assessment of the needs of the CAF. It’s a disconnect, but not in the way that you phrased it. I think most serving GOFO have a decent understanding of what the issues currently are, but are in a tough spot unless there is a funding change.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Thanks for that. I'm just looking at it through the politics and industrial light.

And being a devils advocate...I love the chit-chat.

I learn more stuff with the back and forth.

Discussion is the good part on here. I’m fairly blind above the Wing/fleet level, and am fairly blind to politics etc.

 

[KevinB]

Thanks for that. I'm just looking at it through the politics and industrial light.

And being a devils advocate...I love the chit-chat.

I learn more stuff with the back and forth.

Politics is a dirty word . But I don’t think you’re really looking at the larger Political issues. Sure Canadian and Provincial politics, but not in an international sense that the real $ implications for Canada exist.

Being a good partner means a lot more money overall to the Canadian Economy, as while Boeing itself might not have a massive footprint in Canada, a lot of NATO countries have subsidiaries in Canada, that can ebb and flow based upon how Canada lives up to the alliance’s expectations and requirements.

It’s much easier to turn the screws on Canada for going off on some bay shit crazy venture, and those screws could cause significant pain to the Canadian economy, especially if other methods are used on the economy.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The 1 PPCLI and Reg HQ building in Currie Barracks joint the chat.
Open for all of what was it 14 months before the closure. IIRC the official opening occurred after the base closure announcement.

It is they Cdn way for some reason that eludes me…

Assuming a deal come in circa Labor Day, it would appear that the RCAF could get airframes in fairly short order.

I can’t disagree with that.

Someone had posted a picture of a RCAF pilot in a USN P-8A, I think in this thread. Which bodes well for the IOC timeframes.

Unless I missed it, we have a ACSO with the USN and a pilot with the RAAF. There will soon be an ACSO close to the RAF fleet as well. No NCM positions yet…AES Op has some FG challenges that trump exchanges (for now atleast).

I think most people who even casually observed the M/LRP field were puzzled by the decision towards Block IV as opposed to the P-8 back then.

IIRC, Blondin was heard to say he wanted to see how the UAV stuff would play out before committing to crewed platform. I might be remembering it wrong…

IMHO the Aurora replacement back then fell victim to GWOT priorities. The outlook perhaps changed when you guys started doing sorties supporting those missions, but reality didn’t fully strike home until the understanding of what was happening to the airframes and upgrades versus a new aircraft in terms of long term costing and viability of the role etc.

Ya - Libya happened, the UK called on us to do things close to them while they regretted their previous decisions, Iraq/Syria…then there are some things not in the news at all.

Re: “disconnect”, I’ve been present more than once when Major + level pers who are Aurora Block 2 savy have misconceptions about what Block 3 or 4 can do and do well and issues faced at the crew/Det level. Particularly with sensor “stuff”, or challenges we faced in theatres that really didn’t help with credibility among partners. I have a distinct memory of sitting in our HAS on Impact ROTO O when Wheeler was over to visit, and was standing with his back to the big door. Behind him was the tail of a USN P-3 C/S Brickyard…who we shared stacks with more than once in the BMA, as he went on to tell us we were “the only manned ISR asset in theatre”…

 

[Spencer100]

Fyi

Bombardier delivers sixth Global 6000 for Saab GlobalEye

The Canadian airframer is supplying its multi-role, long-range business jet to serve as the backbone of Swedish aircraft maker Saab's GlobalEye airborne early warning and control platform.

www.flightglobal.com