I thunk Ray is close ... while the poling does, indeed, suggest a Conservative minority is more likely than anything else, it will be a phyrric victory - a repeat of Joe Clark in 1979. The BQ/Liberal/NDP opposition will defeat Poilievre's first budget, no matter what it says.
There is, maybe, one three-step route to a Poilievre/CPC majority:
1. The Conservative vote comes out in full force - likely to happen because most Conservatives really, really hate Trudeau;
2. The Liberal vote stays home - somewhat likely for the Blue-Liberals or Manley-Liberals as we used to call them. I have two friends who are suggesting that is their option for the next election IF Justin Trudeau stays on. But, they will turn out for a new leader - new, as in someone like Carney, untainted by the last few years; and
3. The NDP abandon so-called 'strategic voting' the Liberals and vote heavily for their own, thus creating, in many suburban ridings a situation where the Conservative candidate can "come up through the middle," winning some seats with less than 35% of the popular vote, when the Liberals and NDP split the progressive vote.
It's a long-shot, but possible.