Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Lumber]

Perhaps that is the plan, if people can't eat, the country will destroy it self. If China broke apart we would see atleast half a dozen countries form out of it.

Which ones would we like, and which one's wouldn't we like?

 

[MarkOttawa]

So, presumably over a billion Chinese still gotta eat.

Ultimately, the cost of any tariff is paid by the consumer. In this case, the Chinese consumer.

What happens when the Chinese hit everyone with a tariff? There is a finite list of countries willing and capable of selling grain to China. Is their plan to hit them all with a tariff?

Sounds like they have a social cohesion problem brewing, at that the point where food starts to get real expensive or unobtainable.

And the start of a post on the state of China's economy:

How Hard is COVID-19 Hitting China’s Economy?

Further to this post in February,

What Will Covid-19 Mean for Top Dragon Xi in 2020?

The excellent Nathan Vanderklippe (tweets here) of the Globe and Mail reports on the wide-spread effects of the “invisible enemy”...
https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/19/how-hard-is-covid-19-hitting-chinas-economy/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MilEME09]

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/05/indian-troops-rushed-to-border-amid-chinese-military-buildup/?utm_campaign=alt&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=militarymemes

India increases forces on Chinese border, prepares defensive positions.


Looks like a border conflict may be ready to break out

 

[OldSolduer]

Which ones would we like, and which one's wouldn't we like?

Good question. I don't know enough about China to form an opinion.

Mongolia? How is their relationship with China these days?

 

[MilEME09]

Good question. I don't know enough about China to form an opinion.

Mongolia? How is their relationship with China these days?

here's is a good assessment https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Mongolia-needs-allies-to-withstand-China-s-looming-threat

Long and the short of it, they are economically dependent on china right now, and that worries them, they got free of being a client state of the soviet union in 91, they do not want to become China's client state, but being sandwiched between Russia and China doesn't give them a lot of options for their exports, which is heavily mining based.


As well, here is a military assessment of Taiwan's new strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt6_S12OqOg

 

[Edward Campbell]

Good question. I don't know enough about China to form an opinion.

Mongolia? How is their relationship with China these days?

Despite my very real worries about the specific directions (the plural matters) that Xi Jinping is taking, I remain convinced that Chinese grand strategy remains fairly simple and easy to see. China intends to:

1. Grow in strength until it is a global power, at least on a par with America and Europe in every respect; and

2. Become THE dominant power in East Asia.

I think it's important to understand what China means by East Asia. In my opinion the Chinese mean everything East of the Yenesei River ...

... from the Arctic Ocean all the way South to the Timor Sea (the North Coast of Australia):

That does NOT mean that China wants to colonize East Asia. I think that many Chinese scholars and officials think that China has too many 'foreign' territories (Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang) already. But it does want to dominate everything from Central and Eastern Siberia to Indonesia ... including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and so on. By 'dominate' I mean exercises at least the same sort of influence on all of them as the USA does on Canada.

I believe the Chinese want America's military off of the Asian mainland. (I've discussed this before re Korea.) I also think that the Chinese are prepared, for the foreseeable future, to tolerate ~ even, in a way, welcome ~ American Forces in Japan and Australia as a kind of counterbalance which will reassure e.g. Thailand and the Philippines that their independence is safe.

China is 'contained' by Japan and America to the East with Guam as a HUGE, strategic resource and by India to the East. My (outdated and highly personal) opinion is that India cannot be defeated by China in any conflict ... the reverse is also,  very certainly, true. I don't think the Chinese mind sharing global superpower status with America and, perhaps, even India but I am certain they will not stand for being pushed back.

President Trump has a winning hand if he plays it well, but he needs to be careful ... I'm worried because I'm not sure he knows how to read America's balance sheet. (Remember Pierre Poilievre's recent questions to Bill Morneau about Canada's balance sheets? Assets, liabilities and equity, and who hold them, matter.)

My  :2c: and it's worth less than that.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Start of a post that has considerable relevance for Canada:

How Should the UK Engage with the PRC?

Further to this post,

Engaging with the Chicoms’ PRC–Time to Wake Up and Smell the Maotai

many of the issues the Brits are facing Canada does too, and from a much weaker overall position. We really do need the “coordinated response with our allies” advocated in the last paragraph below; but our government still seems too fearful of the Dragon’s wrath to try join such a response and move it forward. From the Spectator (brought to my attention by a good friend in England)...
https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/20/how-should-the-uk-engage-with-the-prc/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Cloud Cover]

ERC- I believe the PLA openly operates on the ground in one or two of the ‘stans to the west when they feel the need. Something there very clearly annoys or worries them, and sooner or later it might become a flashpoint for a significant muscle flex. Thoughts?

 

[MarkOttawa]

Start of a post:

Disengage, Decouple Economically from the Chicoms or…?

Further to this post,

Engaging with the Chicoms’ PRC–Time to Wake Up and Smell the Maotai

just consider how vulnerable many countries are to retaliation by the PRC:

Fives Eyes allies urged to lessen dependence on China
...

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/21/disengage-decouple-economically-from-the-chicoms-or/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Post based on a piece by Matthew Fisher:

Dragon vs Eagle: Western Pacific, Taiwan, Hong Kong

Further to this post,

Does US Lose non-Nuclear War with China?

the excellent Matthew Fisher gives a nice round-up of the issues (the Canadian government being pretty muted as usual)–several news videos at the link:

COMMENTARY: China shows off military strength as Beijing eyes new rules for Hong Kong

[Note first this May 21 story, a potentially very ominous development:

China drops word ‘peaceful’ in latest push for Taiwan ‘reunification’]
...

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/22/dragon-vs-eagle-western-pacific-taiwan-hong-kong/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[GR66]

Post based on a piece by Matthew Fisher:


the excellent Matthew Fisher gives a nice round-up of the issues (the Canadian government being pretty muted as usual)–several news videos at the link:

[Note first this May 21 story, a potentially very ominous development:


https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/22/dragon-vs-eagle-western-pacific-taiwan-hong-kong/

Mark
Ottawa

Just a quick comment on the one headline..."Does US Lose non-Nuclear War with China?".

It's important not to confuse winning battles with winning the war.  Perhaps China could disable US satellites, pummel Guam and drive US forces outside the South China Sea, but China as a nation is highly dependent on maritime trade for many essentials. 

What happens to China when the USN and Air Force establish a blockade of essential goods (fuel, food, raw resources, etc.) going into the country? 

How much of a "win" is undisputed control of some rocks in the ocean, neighbours that have been turned into enemies and material shortages at home? 

I don't think that any realistic concept of "beating" China in a war includes invasion, or even massive attacks on the Chinese mainland.  I think it's more about deterring (through threat of the long-term consequences) China from trying to take things from their neighbours by force.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Start of a post:

Dragon Getting Ready to Devour Hong Kong–plus BoJo to Ban Huawei at last

Further to this post three weeks ago,

Hong Kong and the PRC: What One Country, Two Systems? Plus COVID-19

Terry Glavin (tweets here) expresses his outrage and his disappointment with Canada’s so far thoroughly feckless policy towards the PRC...
https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/dragon-getting-ready-to-devour-hong-kong-plus-bojo-to-ban-huawei-at-last/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MilEME09]

I doubt there is the actual will to punish China for violating it's agreement with the UK in regards to the hand over and one country, two systems. No wonder Taiwan has told the PRC to pound salt, Hong Kong is exactly what the RoC doesn't want, their rights stripped away. Sure we might get some harsh words from a few world leaders, a few economic repercussions around 5G networks and such but over all, baring anything game changing Hong Kong is done for.

By game changing I mean something the central government can't save face over, like say the Hong Kong police switching sides and joining the protesters, PLA garrison being taken over, etc...


Edit: CPC leadership candidate Erin O'toole has taken his stance on the issue

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/otoole-defend-freedom-in-hong-kong

 

[MarkOttawa]

Canada now stands alone in the Five Eyes on Huawei/5G (further links at original):

Reports: UK to cut Huawei’s involvement in 5G network
Boris Johnson wants to reduce Chinese tech giant’s involvement in building network to zero by 2023, according to British media.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to reduce the role of Huawei in the U.K.'s 5G network in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, according to reports in the Guardian and the Telegraph.

Johnson has instructed officials to draft plans that would reduce Huawei's involvement in building the U.K.'s 5G phone network to zero by 2023, the Telegraph reported.

The move marks a departure from the U.K. government's previous position. In January, Johnson said he would allow the Chinese tech giant to build up to 35 percent of its 5G phone network but block access to "sensitive core" parts of the network.

The push for new plans comes amid growing backlash among Conservative MPs against Chinese investment and a lack of transparency around Beijing's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Telegraph.

The paper also reported Johnson hopes to ramp up trade talks with the United States, which has been one of the most vocal critics of the U.K.'s decision to allow Huawei into its market, citing security concerns.

The reports "simply don't make sense," Huawei Vice President Victor Zhang said in a statement. "As a private company, 100% owned by employees, which has operated in the UK for 20 years, our priority has been to help mobile and broadband companies keep Britain connected, which in this current health crisis has been more vital than ever. This is our proven track-record.”

Downing Street did not immediately respond to POLITICO's request for comment.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/reports-uk-to-cut-huaweis-involvement-in-5g-network-275218

Mark
Ottawa

 

[dimsum]

I've started following Accented Cinema on Youtube.  He has good analysis/reviews on various movies and branches into other stuff (his most popular video is "why aren't Chinese swords as popular as Japanese swords in films?") but his video about patriotism is pretty illuminating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK4jasq2uY8

 

[MarkOttawa]

Start and near end of a post:

UK and Huawei/5G: Dragon Says my Way or else; plus Canadian Crown v, Meng Wanzhou

Further to this post and “Comments”,

Dragon Getting Ready to Devour Hong Kong–plus BoJo to Ban Huawei at last

here’s yet another example of the PRC’s “Wolf Warrior” public diplomacy in a story by Will Glasgow (tweets here) of The Australian, note mentions of Canada–how can anyone (looking at you PM Trudeau) still think its possible to do normal business, or have decent relations, with the Chicoms these days?..

And what happens if the decision on dual criminality goes against Meng Wanzhou tomorrow (May 27) in her fight against extradition to the US? And will PM Trudeau’s justice minister dare approve an appeal of the decision if it goes in her favour?

Premature victory lap? Meng Wanzhou poses ahead of momentous court decision
Huawei executive spotted at celebratory weekend photo shoot on B.C. court steps

...

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2020/05/26/uk-and-huawei-5g-dragon-says-my-way-or-else-plus-canadian-crown-v-meng-wanzhou/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Blackadder1916]

The courthouse steps photo show may have been a bit premature.

Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou loses major court battle as B.C. judge rules extradition bid should proceed
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/meng-wanzhou-extradition-decision-1.5585737

Associate Chief Justice Heather Holmes released her decision Wednesday morning

Jason Proctor · CBC News · Posted: May 27, 2020 4:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 22 minutes ago

A B.C. Supreme Court judge has delivered a major blow to Meng Wanzhou, ruling that extradition proceedings against the Huawei executive should proceed.

In a widely anticipated decision on so-called double criminality, Associate Chief Justice Heather Holmes said the offence Meng is accused of by American prosecutors would be considered a crime if it occurred in Canada.

The 48-year-old chief financial officer of the telecommunications giant is charged with fraud in the United States for allegedly deceiving banks into a possible violation of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran.

In a 23-page ruling released Wednesday, Holmes said that the essence of Meng's alleged crime is fraud.

And the fact that Canada doesn't have the same economic sanctions against Iran as the U.S. wouldn't stop someone being prosecuted in Canada for the same offence.

"Canada's law of fraud looks beyond international boundaries," Holmes wrote in her decision.

"Ms. Meng's approach to the double criminality analysis would seriously limit Canada's ability to fulfil its international obligations in the extradition context for fraud and other economic crimes."

Meng appeared in court shortly after the public release of the decision, showing no visible reaction to the loss. She wore a mask as she took her place beside her defence lawyers in the courtroom.

Extradition hearings to proceed
The executive was arrested at Vancouver's airport in December 2018 on an extradition warrant. She is accused of lying to an HSBC executive in Hong Kong about Huawei's control of a company that was said to be violating U.S. economic sanctions against Iran.

Prosecutors claim that Meng's alleged lies put banks at risk of prosecution and loss because they would be violating U.S. sanctions themselves in handling Huawei's finances.

. . .

And the question is what will be the Chinese government reaction, especially as it pertains to the two Canadians held in custody?

 

[CBH99]

I think one of the main reasons why our government hasn't taken a firm stance against China yet, is precisely because they wanted to secure the release of the two Canadians in custody before doing so.

On the surface, our government has been afraid to say anything bad about China.  And they are criticized for it, and rightfully so.  I imagine behind the scenes (key word is, I imagine...I could be completely wrong) -- I imagine this is because they wanted to secure their release, before making some key decisions on trade, Huawei, etc etc.




This will make things even more interesting.


My personal opinion, it's time for the 5 Eyes to truly come together in all aspects, and for the west to unite.  As much as we may not like Trump as President, it's better we have a solid friendly relationship with our family & neighbours to the south, especially with China in the rise.

We NEED them.  And they benefit greatly from us.  We all have friends and family on either side of the border, we share a continent, we share values and lifestyle, and we are lucky to have the world's greatest superpower as our good friend & next door neighbour.  With China on the rise, I think it's time to really solidify that relationship for all of the obvious reasons  :2c:

 

[ModlrMike]

And the question is what will be the Chinese government reaction, especially as it pertains to the two Canadians held in custody?

Indignation, outrage, and ugliness.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Chinese reaction: our two will swiftly have a sham trial, guilty verdict, harsh sentence, perhaps even death sentence (commutable upon return of their exec).