Canada's New, Liberal, Foreign Policy

[CougarKing]

A fig leaf from Trudeau to Peña Nieto ?

Toronto Star

Canada to lift visa for Mexican visitors in deal before Three Amigos summit

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada is dropping its visa requirement for Mexican visitors as of December 2016, while Mexico has agreed to open its markets to Canadian beef.

Tues., June 28, 2016

OTTAWA—Canada will lift the visa requirements for Mexican citizens that have become a diplomatic sore spot between the two countries, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Tuesday.

At a joint press conference with Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto Tuesday morning, Trudeau said the requirements which limited Mexican nationals’ travel in Canada would be lifted by Dec. 1.

At the same time, Mexico has agreed to open their markets to all Canadian beef exports later this year.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[GAP]

Forget the Syrians....here come the Mexicans.....again....

 

[Kirkhill]

And meanwhile -

The Brexit impact on CETA

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/686645/EU-Brussels-Canada-trade-deal-in-doubt-individual-nations-Brexit-EU-referendum-politics

Jean-Claude says Oui to Chrystia

Bureaucrats had hoped to act as a tacit EU superstate, rubber stamping the plan on behalf of members and even nations beyond the EU borders.

But, emboldened by Britain's Brexit vote, nation states were today in revolt forcing the European Union into a dramatic re-think.

Despite the Britich Brexit vote serving as a huge red flag that nation states are vehemently opposed to losing their sovereignty to an unelected Brussels bureaucracy Juncker last week said he believed there was no need to involve parliaments

Martin Schulz wanted a more powerful, overarchin EU government but nation states want more autonomy

Candian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had hoped for a quick EU deal

But Matthias Fekl, France’s trade minister, said it was “unbelievable” that Brussels had been planning to treat the deal as a decision for an overarching EU body.

He added: “I find it even more hallucinatory only a few days after the result of the British referendum that one could envisage this type of procedure at the level of the European Commission."

Romanian politicians have already threatened to oppose the deal because Bucharest is not receiving visa reciprocity from Ottawa.


Juncker’s self-serving decision to act as a superstate has now put the CETA deal in doubt.

Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s trade minister said: “If the EU cannot do a deal with Canada, I think it is legitimate to say: Who the heck can it do a deal with?”

The U-turn flies in the face of EU top chiefs’ calls for "more Europe", and each nation will now get to decide on the groundbreaking deal to stop it being forced through by the European Commission.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada has been on the table since 2009.

But it is now in doubt as 40 national and regional assemblies will need to approve it.

It is claimed the deal will increase bilateral exports of goods and services by €26billion annually but it appears nations have chosen their own sovereignty over financial gain.

Democracy may be breaking out all over.

 

[McG]

I found this an entertaining read, and linking to this sites appreciation of "events, dear boy" is the recognition that Canadian leaders rarely have the option of picking the defining foreign policy issues of thier time in office.

How Trudeau's foreign policy could blow up in his face
It starts with the usual bad luck … and a President Trump
Michael Petrou
iPolitics
12 Aug 2016

Politicians can only rarely follow through on long-term, big-picture foreign policy plans. The world shifts and changes in unexpected ways, and leaders adjust.

Here, for example, is a now almost unrecognizable George W. Bush during a 2000 presidential campaign debate with Al Gore:

“I’m worried about over-committing our military around the world. I want to be judicious in its use ... I just don’t think it’s the role of the United States to walk into a country and say, ‘We do it this way, so should you.’”

9/11 made Bush an imperialist. His successor, Barack Obama, was going to end Bush’s wars, “reset” relations with Russia and pivot America’s foreign policy focus to the Pacific. America is still in Afghanistan, is in Iraq again and relations between Moscow and Washington are as frosty as they’ve been in a generation. The Pacific will have to wait.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau entered office with a vague and rather self-important foreign policy goal — to “restore constructive Canadian leadership in the world” and, more prosaically, advance Canada’s interests. Details included improving relations with the United States and Mexico by reducing trade barriers and lifting the Mexican visa requirement, increasing support for United Nations peacekeeping operations, restoring ties with Iran and mending frayed relations with Russia.

There was scant mention of terrorism or security threats in Trudeau’s mandate letters to either Foreign Minister Stéphane Dion or Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan: Trudeau instructed the two to end Canada’s combat mission in Iraq and Syria (where Canada had been bombing the so-called Islamic State) and refocus on training local forces and humanitarian efforts. Canadians, he said, wanted Ottawa to make a contribution to a more peaceful and prosperous world, and Trudeau’s government would support those aspirations.

Trudeau hasn’t been blown far off course — yet. He’s enjoyed a sun-setting political romance with Obama. Visa requirements for Mexicans will be lifted by the end of the year. All indications are that Canada will soon join at least one UN peacekeeping mission in Africa.

But the world shifts under Trudeau’s feet, too. If the prospect of a “reset” with America didn’t moderate Russia’s behaviour, it should have been obvious that a friendlier prime minister in Ottawa wouldn’t either. It hasn’t.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ever more belligerent. Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine is intensifying. Putin has vowed that a supposed incursion by Ukraine into Crimea (which Russia invaded and annexed two years ago) “will not go unanswered.”

Russia continues its military support for the murderous Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. And now he’s staged a genuine reset with Turkey, a NATO member state which last year shot down a Russian plane that had briefly entered Turkish airspace.

Under President Recep Erdoan, Turkey is in the midst of a massive purge of those suspected of involvement in an attempted coup last month. Almost 70,000 people — including soldiers, journalists, teachers and judges — have been arrested, suspended or fired, numbers that suggest Erdoan is as interested in crushing dissent as he is in serving justice to those behind the coup attempt.

A NATO member state is sliding toward dictatorship, and its president is cozying up to NATO’s primary adversary. These would be worrying developments for Canada at the best of times. These are not the best of times — especially given the potential for a political earthquake in the United States.

America has always been the cornerstone of the NATO alliance. It will not continue to fill that role if Donald Trump becomes president. Among Trump’s many flaws is his lackadaisical commitment to protecting NATO allies, combined with a bizarre affection for Putin. A Trump presidency — which is a prospect Canada cannot responsibly discount — would embolden Putin and upend the security framework that has kept peace and order in Europe for decades.

This, even more so than the growing international reach of Islamic State, would have implications for Canadian foreign policy priorities, placing demands on Canadian military resources and diplomatic energies.

Contributing to UN peacekeeping operations in Africa, winning a spot on the UN Security Council, developing a North American environmental agreement, leading the global fight against climate change — these are all important goals, and if Trudeau has his way, they'll form the framework of his foreign policy agenda.

But, like other leaders before him, Trudeau won’t get to choose which foreign policy issues define his time in office. All he can do is choose how he responds to them. Trouble is brewing — in Eastern Europe, Turkey, Syria and, most alarmingly, the United States. Trudeau will be hard-pressed to avoid it.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

https://ipolitics.ca/2016/08/11/how-trudeaus-foreign-policy-could-blow-up-in-his-face/

 

[Journeyman]

Contributing to UN peacekeeping operations in Africa, winning a spot on the UN Security Council, developing a North American environmental agreement, leading the global fight against climate change — these are all important goals....

Let's see.....likely disagree.....strongly disagree.....disagree.....and....strongly disagree.    Next.

 

[Kirkhill]

Das schwerpunkt - Georgia.

 

[CougarKing]

Remember what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said? "... the admiration I have for China because, uh, their basic dictatorship is actually allowing them to ..."

Trudeau will have to walk a fine line between offending China and offending any constituents back in Canada such as Falun Gong exiles whose parents or relatives were killed and harvested for their organs while imprisoned in China.

Canadian Press via Global News

China sees ‘new opportunity’ with Justin Trudeau in charge
By Andy Blatchford The Canadian Press

OTTAWA – With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set to embark on his first official visit to China, the Chinese government is trying to ease concerns about its human rights record as a way to encourage a deeper business relationship with Canada.

The economic superpower sees last year’s election of Trudeau’s Liberal government as a “new opportunity” to strengthen business ties between the two countries, China’s ambassador to Canada told The Canadian Press.

For both sides, the expectations around Trudeau’s week-long trip are high.

Trudeau, who leaves for China on Monday, will focus on building the economic connection between the two countries. On Friday, he described the trip as something of a “reset” in the relationship.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Lightguns]

Trudeau will have to walk a fine line between offending China and offending any constituents back in Canada such as Falun Gong exiles whose parents or relatives were killed and harvested for their organs while imprisoned in China.

Canadian Press via Global News

I strongly suspect that he will view China the way his daddy viewed Cuba.  This will be the tone of the conversation for Canada; remember how Cuba went from human right abusing dictatorship to the poor little country that took on the USA in Canadian Liberal circles in the 70s.  I think he considers himself his daddy's legacy. 

 

[Colin Parkinson]

China ratching up the ante. I suspect it has less to do with safety or quality, then to put the screws to Trudeau to see how he reacts. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/inventing-canola-no-help-for-canada-as-china-changes-import-rule

 

[Journeyman]

......put the screws to Trudeau to see how he reacts.

Possibly as a bargaining chip in a completely unrelated field. 

As a random example, China could  say "we'll modify this agricultural requirement for our good Canadian friends.....IF you back our South China Sea claims."  In such a hypothetical case, a $2B Canadian export would likely carry more election campaign weight than maintaining international norms.    :dunno:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Not of course that China would ever stoop to such tactics......... [lol:

 

[Good2Golf]

Nor any other first world nation wanting ply its own resources globally like, say....asbestos...

 

[CougarKing]

No figures yet on what this current govt. will commit to the new AIIB:

Canadian Press

Canada signals intent to join China-led bank
Canadian Press
Andy Blatchford
9 hrs ago

BEIJING - Justin Trudeau has officially submitted Canada's application to join a controversial new international infrastructure bank led by China — an initiative the Asian country hopes will help build its economic credibility around the world.

China founded the US$100-billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank late last year to provide other countries in the region access to capital for investments in projects in areas such as transportation, power and telecommunications.

The Canadian government made the announcement after Trudeau met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday in Beijing, but did not immediately specify how much money it would put into the new bank.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[The Bread Guy]

As a random example, China could  say "we'll modify this agricultural requirement for our good Canadian friends.....IF you back don't actively oppose our South China Sea claims." 

Even that as a fall-back would be good news for the Chinese.

 

[Lightguns]

Even that as a fall-back would be good news for the Chinese.

How can one not actively oppose those claims when they have no basis in international law, your largest trading partner does oppose, and you have huge ethnic populations from concerned nations in your stronghold ridings?

 

[The Bread Guy]

How can one not actively oppose those claims when they have no basis in international law, your largest trading partner does oppose, and you have huge ethnic populations from concerned nations in your stronghold ridings?

In politics, as in everything ...

If you consider it a balancing act, if you make more people/interests happy with what we get than what we give up, it's still a winner (politically, anyway).

Also, if you want to parse "actively oppose", if Canada whines, but doesn't, say, join any joint international action against China on that particular issue, that may be enough to keep everyone happy -- here's what was said about the court decision, but what's been done to fight China's position/possession?  Here's some options, for example, the U.S. could consider (from a paper last updated last year) to show the range of things that could be done:

...
•  stronger U.S. statements to China about the consequences for China of continuing the land reclamation activities, and more generally, changing the U.S. tone of conversation with China;
•  better publicizing China’s land reclamation activities and other actions in the area, as well as their potential implications for international law and the treatment of the global commons, to the public and governments in the region and globally;
•  opposing land reclamation activities in disputed waters by both China and other claimants;
•  strengthening the capacity of allied and partner countries in the region to maintain maritime domain awareness (MDA), coast guard patrols, and fishing fleet operations in the area;
•  further strengthening U.S. security cooperation with allied and partner countries in the region, and with India, to the point of creating a coalition for balancing China’s assertiveness;
•  increasing arms sales to Taiwan; and
•  increasing U.S. Navy operations in the region ...

The "did we win? calculus would require the political Info-machine to very carefully consider what you brought up in yellow.

 

[ModlrMike]

...and you have huge ethnic populations from concerned nations in your stronghold ridings?

The Filipino communities in Manitoba might have something to say about the issue.

 

[Journeyman]

How can one not actively oppose those claims when they have no basis in international law, your largest trading partner does oppose, and you have huge ethnic populations from concerned nations in your stronghold ridings?

You're talking law, rationality, and several dispersed ridings.  I was referring, hypothetically, only to an economic reality.

.....In such a hypothetical case, a $2B Canadian export would likely carry more election campaign weight than maintaining international norms.

By the next election, perhaps some people may look at the deficit and say  ":facepalm:"  -- although I honestly don't hold out a lot of hope.

The government may  need to look at what they have salvaged.... like a $2B export market.


As for the US, see Trudeau 1.0 and Cuba;  China is a variation on a theme (although they are an actual risk, if not threat.... unlike Cuba)

 

[Loachman]

How can one not actively oppose those claims when they have no basis in international law, your largest trading partner does oppose, and you have huge ethnic populations from concerned nations in your stronghold ridings?

Because it's 2016?

 

[Kirkhill]

Sooner or later somebody is going to have to decide to do something and will discover that somebody is opposed.