CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[QV]

Key point. It’s coming soon.

Canada’s response to the watery Hogue Report will be a significant factor in subsequent US actions, amongst other factors. It will likely be not long before Canadians find out who the 11 compromised parliamentarians are, likely just after Carney’s coronation. indeed.

My thoughts as well. Canada has made a very large mistake handwaving away that issue. Unless there are significant things happening outside of public view, but I’d have my doubts.

 

[RangerRay]

Key point. It’s coming soon.

Canada’s response to the watery Hogue Report will be a significant factor in subsequent US actions, amongst other factors. It will likely be not long before Canadians find out who the 11 compromised parliamentarians are, likely just after Carney’s coronation. indeed.

Are you sure? Where are you hearing this? I know some Trump-friendly law enforcement experts like David Asher has been bringing this up, I have seen nothing to suggest the upper echelons of the Trump administration are seized by our issues with Beijing’s interference, influence and intimidation campaigns. If they are, they’re being very quiet about it.

I really don’t think Trump cares what we do or don’t do on the foreign interference file. He’s got a boner for tariffs and he’s convinced he can replace the money from income taxes with tariffs.

 

[Czech_pivo]

He may have gone there to discuss, but it wasn't on Trumps agenda. All trudeau got for his trip was spanked. Dinner conversation is not negotiation. If you want to consider it as negotiation, trudeau failed absolutely miserably. He doesn't have the mental acuity to deal with Trump.

And along those lines neither does PP.
Who would have to ability is a savvy businessperson, who bereaved in the rough and tumble world of capitalism. Sadly we lack that level of knowledge/intelligence/leadership currently at the Federal level.
Mulroney did so well against Regan business he was a savy businessman….

 

[QV]

If you listen to Rubio, you would understand everything Trump is doing about Panama and Greenland is directly to counter China’s moves. I think the trade imbalance issue with Canada is a temporary distraction. The real issue is China. Canada is getting the most favoured nation courtesy by not going public with just how bad the problem is, for now. The US will not tolerate a CCP puppet state on its border.

 

[Good2Golf]

Are you sure? Where are you hearing this? I know some Trump-friendly law enforcement experts like David Asher has been bringing this up, I have seen nothing to suggest the upper echelons of the Trump administration are seized by our issues with Beijing’s interference, influence and intimidation campaigns. If they are, they’re being very quiet about it.

I really don’t think Trump cares what we do or don’t do on the foreign interference file. He’s got a boner for tariffs and he’s convinced he can replace the money from income taxes with tariffs.

Yea, I am confidently sure of this. I trust that my friends and their colleagues inside the beltway know what factors are at play. I’m confident in what I’m hearing from them. I can’t convince you otherwise, but that’s fine. We’re all collecting our own basis of information and different sources will have different inputs/factors for consideration. In many cases it’s no so much one specific fact here or there but the patterns forming an overall environment. All good….well not, but all good as in each person is free to make their own assessment and form their own opinions of the situation.

Trump is the driver of the tariffs, yes, and believing that America can gain increased revenue from other nations through trade restriction, but it would be a mistake to believe that the back room side of DC hasn’t been, nor doesn’t remain concerned about China’s interference, particularly in Canada (ie. immediately north of America).

 

[RangerRay]

Yea, I am confidently sure of this. I trust that my friends and their colleagues inside the beltway know what factors are at play. I’m confident in what I’m hearing from them. I can’t convince you otherwise, but that’s fine. We’re all collecting our own basis of information and different sources will have different inputs/factors for consideration. In many cases it’s no so much one specific fact here or there but the patterns forming an overall environment. All good….well not, but all good as in each person is free to make their own assessment and form their own opinions of the situation.

Trump is the driver of the tariffs, yes, and believing that America can gain increased revenue from other nations through trade restriction, but it would be a mistake to believe that the back room side of DC hasn’t been, nor doesn’t remain concerned about China’s interference, particularly in Canada (ie. immediately north of America).

If you say so. I’ll trust you have sources but nothing has been mentioned about this publicly. If they are really seized by the issue and want to make the Government of Canada take this seriously, they’re being very probably should go public so public pressure can be properly brought to bear on the government.

“Oh, it’s not you. It’s really us!”

 

[Good2Golf]

It’s not that my sources are anything nefarious, they’re all out there and have their various visibility to those who at least want to consider the information available.

Follow but one path for consideration:

Chinese interference/illegal activities in Canada > investigations > CSIS > David Vigneault > Striker Technologies > H.R. McMaster > past National Security Advisor to Trump > Trump

Consider the linkages…or don’t. Nicht aufgeregt.

 

[Brad Sallows]

It might help to stop trying to see this issue in a different frame from the way everything else almost inevitably unfolds.

Trump's egregious exercises of executive power usually produce swift push-back, particularly using courts. We are not in a "trade war with Americans". The US is not an unreliable trading partner. All of this is on Trump and some supporters who are thinking qualitatively instead of quantitatively or who are just ignorant to the bone on basic matters of trade. There are plenty of American interests that will be harmed by tariffs, regardless on whom tariffs are imposed. Give Americans some time to respond to whatever concrete action eventually emerges, if any, before escalating damage to trade.

Meanwhile, focus on offsetting anticipated GDP losses with domestic undertakings that will goose GDP. Our politicians have had almost three months to execute on things that would make sense even without the threat of widespread tariffs. Why are they so slow to act? Are they talking "unity in crisis" while they privately wish to maintain status quo if they can get away with it?

Call our politicians out. Put them on the spot. Identify easy - preferably unilateral - actions that they could take, right now or very quickly, and demand to know why those things haven't already been done. Force them to disclose reasons for perpetuating internal impediments to trade flows, or to reveal that they have no good reasons.

 

[Good2Golf]

Meanwhile, focus on offsetting anticipated GDP losses with domestic undertakings that will goose GDP. Our politicians have had almost three months to execute on things that would make sense even without the threat of widespread tariffs. Why are they so slow to act? Are they talking "unity in crisis" while they privately wish to maintain status quo if they can get away with it?

Three months, or years and years?

 

[Kirkhill]

Feeling no necessity to be even handed in debate I will continue to give voice to my preferred advocates:

Conrad Black: Trump bulldozes the leftist nonsense of the last four years

Canada risks getting left behind as the U.S. president fundamentally reshapes global politics

nationalpost.com

Trump is just playing poker. It will not be difficult to negotiate a reasonable compromise on tariffs and there is no difference between Canada and the U.S. on immigration matters. Trump’s jokes about Canada becoming the 51st state were mainly a response to what he considered (with some reason) to be the impertinences of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during his first term as president.

Carney’s Net Zero Banking Alliance and Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, both of whose members pledge to align their lending, investment and other commercial activities with net-zero emission goals, are crumbling. Four of the five large Canadian banks (all but Royal Bank) and six of the largest American banks have announced that they are defecting from those absurd organizations. The starting gun for the abandonment of these battlements appears to have been the U.S. House judiciary committee’s accusation that the imposition of these net-zero policies constitutes a fraud against shareholders and that they have contributed to the rise in energy prices since 2020 through recourse to “anti-competitive collusion.”

Conrad Black knows something about US courts and fraud charges. It is probably harder to prosecute a Canadian PM than a Canadian banker.

....

NP View: Liberals have left Canada vulnerable to Trump's trade war

Retaliatory tariffs must be taken with utmost caution

nationalpost.com

Canada should be a prosperous, growth-oriented economy, but instead, its government — and the people who continuously vote for economy-stagnating policy — settle for subsistence and redistribution of a shrinking pie of wealth. Their choices for the past decade have left us without enough fat to get through a cold trade winter.

Canada can also acknowledge its faults, and work to remedy them. It’s an objective fact that this country has lagged on military spending and been a poor partner within NATO — and that has to change. On the border, while the Canadian problem is minor compared to that of Mexico, it’s still a problem: this country has been a staging ground for Chinese fentanyl and fentanyl precursors, some of which end up in the U.S., as well as a source of illegal migrants, thanks to years of lax entry rules.

It’s true that Trump’s border demands lack specificity — “show us the respect, shut your border,” as his pick for commerce lead has said, isn’t an actionable request. Canada needs a checklist — say, number of smuggler convictions, number of foot patrols, amount of money spent — to properly follow through.

That leaves us, unfortunately, with the less-glamourous immediate option: play this by the book. The United States-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement, which will be violated by any across-the-board tariff Trump applies, needs to be challenged with the mechanisms agreed upon by party states. During the process, Canada must remind Trump that it’s just following the agreement that he made.

....

So, some key elements as far as I am concerned:

Putting pressure on the USCMA is at the heart of the matter - Trump wasn't a big fan of what his team was able to negotiate the last time and he wants a do-over. And he wants it sooner rather than later.

China, China, China substitutes for Location, Location, Location.

De-platforming people and creating safe spaces doesn't prepare people for combat in the lion's den. Thus the tendency to look for others to do your fighting for you.

Canadian foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly should spend her time trying to obtain one instead of courting Trump’s opponents, who are in no position to help us.

The Center for American Progress and the Podesta Group, John and Tony, are gone. Podesta clients included Obama, Hillary, Biden, Blair, Starmer, Jacinda and Justin, and Viktor Yanukovych.

 

[Rifleman62]

She must have completely missed or chooses to ignore the fact that the 1st pillar of the 5 pillar $1.3 Billion border and immigration plan released last month is all about new measures to tackle fentanyl and fentanyl precursors.

There is zero funds for Border Security. It was not in the last Budget (obviously Trudeau didn't think it important last Apr 2024). This is a new funding requirement (Supply Motion) that needs the approval of Parliament. Guess what, it's prorogued. When the Parliament next sits a month or so from now, there will probably be a Confidence Motion. ​

What money? Not funded.

Canada is investing $1.3 billion to bolster security at the border and strengthen the immigration system, all while keeping Canadians safe. This includes $667.5M for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, $355.4M for the Canada Border Services Agency, $180M over 6 years for the Communications Security Establishment, $77.7M for Health Canada, and $20M over five years for Public Safety Canada.

Do you get it? $1.3 Billion over 6 years or less than $217 Million a year. Peanuts in the scheme of things.

 

[daftandbarmy]

There is zero funds for Border Security. It was not in the last Budget (obviously Trudeau didn't think it important last Apr 2024). This is a new funding requirement (Supply Motion) that needs the approval of Parliament. Guess what, it's prorogued. When the Parliament next sits a month or so from now, there will probably be a Confidence Motion. ​

What money? Not funded.

Canada is investing $1.3 billion to bolster security at the border and strengthen the immigration system, all while keeping Canadians safe. This includes $667.5M for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, $355.4M for the Canada Border Services Agency, $180M over 6 years for the Communications Security Establishment, $77.7M for Health Canada, and $20M over five years for Public Safety Canada.

Do you get it? $1.3 Billion over 6 years or less than $217 Million a year. Peanuts in the scheme of things.

 

[Kirkhill]

Meanwhile, focus on offsetting anticipated GDP losses with domestic undertakings that will goose GDP. Our politicians have had almost three months to execute on things that would make sense even without the threat of widespread tariffs. Why are they so slow to act? Are they talking "unity in crisis" while they privately wish to maintain status quo if they can get away with it?

As @Good2Golf sez "years and years".

Which is the problem. The country has had years and years to demonstrate to investors whether it is an attractive and safe place to invest. The ability to attract investment is the only sure cure against this kind of attack.

Unfortunately for us decades of havering will not be overturned by any politician saying "I've seen the light!". Especially if the politicians have no access to the treasury because parliament is not in session.

We need new politicians, new policies, new laws and the development of a new track record. There are a lot of Missouri investors out there. Missouri: The Show Me State.

 

[McG]

Follow but one path for consideration:

Chinese interference/illegal activities in Canada > investigations > CSIS > David Vigneault > Striker Technologies > H.R. McMaster > past National Security Advisor to Trump > Trump

Consider the linkages…or don’t. Nicht aufgeregt.

Why do you need Trump’s tariffs to be about Trudeau?

You are dragging things to the tin-foil hat place to keep Trudeau as the cause for Trump’s tariff war vs the world. You have an imagined path an idea could have followed to Trump but nothing to substantiate. That guy has no filter. If he was worried about Chinese influence in Canada, he would have cast such aspersions already (he has done so about Panama).

 

[Good2Golf]

Why do you need Trump’s tariffs to be about Trudeau?

You are dragging things to the tin-foil hat place to keep Trudeau as the cause for Trump’s tariff war vs the world. You have an imagined path an idea could have followed to Trump but nothing to substantiate. That guy has no filter. If he was worried about Chinese influence in Canada, he would have cast such aspersions already (he has done so about Panama).

I’m sorry. Would you like me to adopt your position if it makes you feel better? I thought I was free to have my own opinion. You can agree with any, all or none of it.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Anybody noticed that Trump has turned into Oprah Winfrey (though, since she is a black woman, she obviously got there because of DEI):

"You get a tariff! And you get a tariff! And you get a tariff! .... Everybody gets a tariff!"

 

[Remius]

Anybody noticed that Trump has turned into Oprah Winfrey (though, since she is a black woman, she obviously got there because of DEI):

"You get a tariff! And you get a tariff! And you get a tariff! .... Everybody gets a tariff!"

He’s an orange man so could also be DEI.

 

[McG]

Anyone can have their opinions, but I don’t see anything defensible in the opinion that Trump’s tarifs are about Trudeau. If someone has something more tangible than imagination that ties Trump’s tariffs to Trudeau as the cause, then persuade me.

But if one cannot defend their opinions, at least recognize those opinions are exposed to legitimate criticisms when aired in a discussion.

 

[Good2Golf]

Anyone can have their opinions, but I don’t see anything defensible in the opinion that Trump’s tarifs are about Trudeau.

His dislike of Trudeau is a personal thing. That’s not at play here, it’s his leadership, or lack thereof, as Canada’s leader.

Canada’s lack of definitive action to protect against Chinese (and a lesser degree India and Russia) adversarial attack on its institutions.

Trudeau should be held accountable for that lack of definitive protective actions, no?

 

[Remius]

Anyone can have their opinions, but I don’t see anything defensible in the opinion that Trump’s tarifs are about Trudeau. If someone has something more tangible than imagination that ties Trump’s tariffs to Trudeau as the cause, then persuade me.

People need a narrative that fits their world view that allows them to keep cheering for Trump.

But if one cannot defend their opinions, at least recognize those opinions are exposed to legitimate criticisms when aired in a discussion.

Absolutely.