CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[dapaterson]

I don’t know.

Canada needs to focus on Canada, which includes addressing foreign adversarial action against its institutions.

So... What do we do about Postmedia then?

 

[Good2Golf]

So... What do we do about Postmedia then?

Enact the legislation to force it to identify interactions with registered foreign principals.

And others…you know, like Power Corp. et al…

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Well, anyone in need of a new car: If you had your mind set on a car built in North America (notice I didn't say a North-American car - most Japanese and some Korean cars are made here)(notice also I didn't say a car made in Canada, or in Mexico or in the USA, because none of those exist anymore - they move back and forth between those three country until the finish product comes out somewhere in one of the three countries), go and get one right now off the lot, because the next batch produced will be anywhere between 10 and 15 % more expensive.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This isn't all Trudeau's fault. He just is a leader in the mob that sets the tone.

Better trade relationships with China will be awesome; China will become our friend and become more liberal with respect to human rights and international relations. We don't need to worry about developing infrastructure to export more of our extracted resources through Canadian ports to customers across our adjacent oceans. We can subsidize our way to a low-carbon energy base, even a net-zero one. We can overspend as long as one important number - debt as % of GDP - is stable or falling below some magic number threshold no-one can quite agree on. We care about Canadians, which is why we're going to let them bear the brunt of recession-militating counter-measures which seem to be the only kinds of steps we'll take to mitigate a tariff-induced recession.

That mob was so sure of themselves. From the lack of movement on internal trade liberalization and the insistence of sticking to the same solutions - don't liberalize restraints on business and trade to fight a recession, just provide more financial supports regardless how marginal the enterprises are - they still are sure of themselves. PS: talk about everything as "war" to incite bad tempers everywhere, which is always sure to bring people to reasonable solutions.

China only becomes your friend until they can rape you of your resources and dominate you. The host nation falls prey to the effects of Stockholm Syndrome. They don’t see any problem with China in charge of things. At least not until the next Chinese virus escapes their lab and they start welding you up inside your living cubicle.

 

[The Bread Guy]

For the record, a reminder of the last official word as of Friday, from US state media*


Meanwhile ....
Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from Canada expected to begin on Tuesday (also archived here)

U.S. informs Canada tariffs will be imposed Tuesday

Across-the-board tariffs of 25% will be on most Canadian goods starting Tuesday, with 10% tariffs on energy, a source says

www.theglobeandmail.com

... and in other jurisdictions:

Snap election doesn't leave Ontario vulnerable amid tariff threat, Doug Ford insists

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford insists Ontario is not vulnerable during a snap election campaign he called as a possible trade war with the United States looms.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

"Traders Load US-Bound Planes With Gold and Silver in Tariff Bet"

* - Yup, I do mean "state media": "VOA is part of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), the government agency that oversees all non-military, U.S. international broadcasting. It is funded by the U.S. Congress," complete with an editorial page "Reflecting the Views of the U.S. Government as Broadcast on Voice of America."

 

[brihard]

Brihard, you’re right, mea culpa. That’s was a by memory pull, and mixed my foreign interference activities. I meant Bill S-237 FIRAA - Foreign Interference Registry and Accountability Act, vice Bill C-70 FITAA - Foreign Interference Transparency and Accountability Act (with its problematically vague definition of ‘foreign principal’).

S-237 (44-1) - LEGISinfo - Parliament of Canada

S-237 (44-1) - LEGISinfo - Parliament of Canada

www.parl.ca

…or whatever the Government intend to replace S-237 with if not intent on pursuing it.

Looks like that never advanced past first reading in the senate. I’d need to actually look at it in detail, but if its intent was to create a foreign agents registry, C-70 has put the legislation in place for that among other provisions of the act. S-237 is made redundant.

 

[The Bread Guy]

My bingo card has: “Trump will keep beasting Canada until Trudeau and any subsequent Liberal PM is gone…”

We’ll see if I’m wrong…

One can hope, but we'll see.

 

[Remius]

My bingo card has: “Trump will keep beasting Canada until Trudeau and any subsequent Liberal PM is gone…”

We’ll see if I’m wrong…

That is an easy prediction though. Chances are when this gets resolved we will have had an election and a change of government. It won’t matter who is in power. Trudeau will be gone and the tea leaves point to a CPC win in the next election.

 

[FJAG]

Glass half full: As Canada's GDP drops the percentage of GDP spent on defence may rise to 2%. Assuming the dollar amounts spent on defence stay constant.

Glass half full again: Planning on buying a new car but it's built in Japan.

Glass half empty: Car dealership will raise the cost anyway because . . . they think I'll never know that they are robbing me. Think I'll write down all of today's list prices.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab.

Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab

Public Safety Minister David McGuinty has headed to Washington, DC, in a last-ditch effort to avert a tariff war with the US. Tariffs are set to go into place on Saturday.

www.westernstandard.news

Perhaps we can use all the cocaine they ship north as a counterpoint.

 

[Good2Golf]

That is an easy prediction though.

You’d think, right? But some seem to think LeBlanc and Joly pitching a 3-minute video about $1.3B of promises to be a better neighbor will smooth things out.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Perhaps we can use all the cocaine they ship north as a counterpoint.

... or, since the U.S. Sec of Commerce is concerned about showing respect and stopping what's killing citizens, maybe other stuff that comes north too.

WARMINGTON: Border battle fails to include gun smuggling into Canada from U.S.

Sure Trump wants to blame Canada for the soft border problems. But U.S. is no angel on that file, either.

torontosun.com

Also archived here if link above doesn't work.

 

[Kirkhill]

Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.

Unless he remits the tariff after the unit has been exported.

 

[brihard]

Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab.

Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab

Public Safety Minister David McGuinty has headed to Washington, DC, in a last-ditch effort to avert a tariff war with the US. Tariffs are set to go into place on Saturday.

www.westernstandard.news

Perhaps we can use all the cocaine they ship north as a counterpoint.

Drugs, guns, lots of people too… The border is definitely porous in both directions. I fully expect we’re going to see a significant 2017-esque uptick in asylum seekers.

Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.

I’m wondering this too- the auto sector could be horrendously vulnerable, more than most sectors. The supply chains are also not easily substitutable; a U.S. grocery store can jack prices 15% and buy its eggs from a slightly pricier producer in the U.S.. Auto assemblers can’t quickly substitute transmissions, shocks, or engines from someone else sitting there with slack capacity. I think that very quickly the auto sector is gonna scream bloody murder… But the devil will be in the details. If you see anything that drills down in this, please share.

10% on energy is gonna suck, but also is not all going to be quickly substitutable. Refineries are configured for specific inputs.

Agriculture could get smoked. People may not be able to buy the same type of fruit or vegetable from a non-tariff source, but enough will simply switch up what fruits and veg they consume. Stuff like eggs, dairy, meat… Our producers could be in a world of hurt.

In the coming week we’ll probably see some excellent analyses come out of specifically which products and manufacturers are in the most trouble here. No matter how one slices it, this is exceptionally bad for Canada.

I suspect we’ll see more fall in the dollar, too.

 

[dapaterson]

Eggs and dairy are a constant friction point due to supply management; not much crosses the border in either direction.

 

[brihard]

Eggs and dairy are a constant friction point due to supply management; not much crosses the border in either direction.

About a third of a billion in dairy and eggs from Canada to the U.S. annually. Not massive in the grand scheme of things, but not nothing.

 

[GR66]

China the United States only becomes your friend until they can rape you of your resources and dominate you. The host nation falls prey to the effects of Stockholm Syndrome. They don’t see any problem with China the United States in charge of things. At least not until the next Chinese virus escapes their lab American populist gets elected and they start welding you up inside your living cubicle using economic force to make you submit to annexation.

The substitutions aren't really a big stretch. Something every smaller power living next to a large power should keep in mind.