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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)
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NearingZenith
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Government of Canada announces its plan to strengthen border security and our immigration system - Canada.ca
Ambrose is right about the government’s lack of focus on productivity through the years. But she also spends the last minute of the clip complaining about the government having nothing to say about fentanyl and asking why can’t Canada at least try to address the issue. She must have completely missed or chooses to ignore the fact that the 1st pillar of the 5 pillar $1.3 Billion border and immigration plan released last month is all about new measures to tackle fentanyl and fentanyl precursors.
Canada Gazette, Part 2, Volume 157, Number 12: Regulations Amending the Precursor Control Regulations (Novel Fentanyl Precursors)
And the tackling of fentanyl precursors is not a new last minute thing based on Trump’s recent complaints. New fentanyl precursors are regularly banned or restricted as they are discovered, such as a recent update in 2023.
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Perhaps somebody better versed in economics than me can answer this.
If Trump runs with a strong dollar policy, meaning the USD gains value against all other currencies then wouldn't that drive the price of imports down? If he drives the price of imports down then he can afford to apply tariffs on imports without driving prices and inflation up, it seems to me.
Also, a strong dollar would tend to discourage exports, making more domestically produced material available for the domestic market.
If Trump runs with a strong dollar policy, meaning the USD gains value against all other currencies then wouldn't that drive the price of imports down? If he drives the price of imports down then he can afford to apply tariffs on imports without driving prices and inflation up, it seems to me.
Also, a strong dollar would tend to discourage exports, making more domestically produced material available for the domestic market.
It’s very much a simplification, but yes, the strong U.S. dollar can work that way.
Halifax Tar
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McG
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I don’t think Trump cares which party is in power. But if regime change really is the end game, then he has just jumped foreign interference to a whole new level in Canada.
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On the first point, I don’t *think it’s the party specifically, but the track record of big talk with minimal action while China invasively works to compromise Canadian institution.
Second point is actually worthy of consideration. The difference being of course the influence is any other than hidden, and there seems not to be a country in the planet that isn’t targeted by him.
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Agreed. He’s seeking to acquire, extract, and exploit wealth. He’s hiding that behind a veneer thinner than the ass on a pair of 90s combats. I don’t believe he cares who the PM is or what party governs; he’s not a statesman, he’s more akin to an old school robber baron trying to cement an industrial monopoly. Who, precisely, is leading Canada is barely of notice and certainly below his level of care. Our policies only matter inasmuch as they give him an easier political excuse for actions that are purely self-motivated.
It’s not like he’s hiding any of this. People on our side who don’t want to believe it are just burying their heads.
He’ll make more positive noises to those who flatter or appease him, sure, but his goals are what they are. Canada is like a small business that he sees as unnecessarily competing with his own larger one. He wants to drive us out or acquire us. This is consistent with what he’s actually doing.
We’re seeing this, understandably, through a domestic lens- but he’s going after much of the world this way.
Viewed through a lens of a business executive bullying his way to commercial and industrial supremacy, unconstrained by considerations like antitrust laws, his rhetoric and actions fit an ugly but understandable pattern. Some people have been keen to point out that he’s an outsider, he’s not a politician, etc. that’s right- so look at what he has been and shift the way you’re trying to see the pattern.
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WCS is priced at Hardisty is it not and WTI at Cushing?
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He may have gone there to discuss, but it wasn't on Trumps agenda. All trudeau got for his trip was spanked. Dinner conversation is not negotiation. If you want to consider it as negotiation, trudeau failed absolutely miserably. He doesn't have the mental acuity to deal with Trump.
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you reference the Canada Elections Act but are not these provisions already in the Constitution?
Provision
4. (1) No House of Commons and no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs at a general election of its members.(2) In time of real or apprehended war, invasion or insurrection, a House of Commons may be continued by Parliament and a legislative assembly may be continued by the legislature beyond five years if such continuation is not opposed by the votes of more than one-third of the members of the House of Commons or the legislative assembly, as the case may be.
I was under the impression that (2) was a little more permissive on what reasons for an extension and more limited by one year on the extension. A pre Charter thing perhaps?
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The Government had enacted the Emergencies Act for vehicles on Wellington Street, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Government makes the case that POTUS 47 represents an existential threat to Canada and that the Government see fit to enact the EA.
I’m not sure why people don’t think PM Carney would do this.
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I know those are transit hubs. I don't know if they are necessarily the pricing points. I look forward to being educated.
QV
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Marco Rubio talks about Panama, Greenland, Mexico, and Canada. Though he didn’t specifically state “China” when speaking of Canada, that was a major theme with the other areas. I estimate China is a big factor in why the US is pursuing what it is with Canada. I get the feeling the US is avoiding publicly calling Canada out on its China problem, for now.
My point still stands. There is no négociation to be had. His card was revealed. So at least now it helps shape the response.
The USA is no longer a friendly trade partner.
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POTUS 47 is relying on emergency powers too...
QV
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It’s not like the bar hasn’t been set pretty low already for the EA.The Government had enacted the Emergencies Act for vehicles on Wellington Street, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Government makes the case that POTUS 47 represents an existential threat to Canada and that the Government see fit to enact the EA.
I’m not sure why people don’t think PM Carney would do this.
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Key point. It’s coming soon.
Canada’s response to the watery Hogue Report will be a significant factor in subsequent US actions, amongst other factors. It will likely be not long before Canadians find out who the 11 compromised parliamentarians are, likely just after Carney’s coronation.
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well you have to be careful on what numbers you are using as they can be priced elsewhere. But im pretty sure most WTI you see is out of Cushing and WCS is out of Hardisty. You might see WCS out of Cushing and Houston as well.
How much of the value of WCS is the dilbit? 25%, 33%?
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