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CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia
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Eye In The Sky
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"in the market"
:
:
medicineman
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A buyer's or seller's market?
I can't think of any good that can come out of a blue hat mission anywhere in Africa off the top of my head...
MM
I can't think of any good that can come out of a blue hat mission anywhere in Africa off the top of my head...
MM
Oldgateboatdriver
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Eye In The Sky said:"in the market"
:
EITS, don't you know that, to paraphrase an opposition party leader now PM, the Government of Canada just "Wants to whip out its CG634's just to show how blue they are".
"It's terribly unfortunate that Canada has to deploy its forces in Latvia instead of having peacekeeping in Africa or in an area of the world where it's much more needed," Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion told the Canadian Press on the sidelines of the summit Saturday. Put this together with the government's comments on the F18's. It implies that there is no capability within the armed forces anywhere to meet our commitments should more than one request come in at a time. It appears as though they may be forced to spend more money by their own rhetoric (wisely one would hope) and this would be good.
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They won't spend the money until someone is killed because they don't have the right equipment to do the job. I'll be surprised if we don't end up in 2 major missions in blue berets, plus IMPACT, REASSURANCE and UNIFIER. The deployments will be there, just don't lose your mental health because of it, Real Change didn't extend to VAC giving a crap about you.
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I've been thinking about this for a few days. Putin is pretty much isolated from anyone and everyone who want
to isolate him. The numbers are not that large, the effects minimize by the day.
Just spit balling a scenario here...
His military is modernizing quickly, is far more skilled than even 5 years ago. His Air Force IS an air power on the border. His ground forces ARE experienced, well equipped and apparently motivated. He has the ability to rally ethnic tensions and cause divisiveness in former east block states.
His Navy is probably the predominant naval force (with its land based supporting air cover) in the Baltic. When Kuznetsov completes the ISIL mission in January (maybe earlier) she will return for refit in her Baltic home port. She is now currently loaded with 2 full regiments of the much improved MIG29k. She will have or meet up with a substantial surface and submarine escort in the Baltic, and will be approaching NATO East, from the west! He may choose this as an opportune time to bloody a few noses in a "drive by shooting" prempted by some unfortunate border skirmishes to be blamed on NATO, and perhaps torch a few Typhoons, Tornado's, Hornets and Falcons on the ground, crater a few runways etc. If the Kuznetsov battle group ( let's call it that), hits quickly and then dashes for Russian water, he will have given the west some sobering thoughts and if successful enough, drive up nationalism at home even further. It won't take much for the Russians to figure a way to put the blame on NATO. The only thing that might genuinely give him pause about doing that would be if Trump was elected...
Anyway, just a thought. He may meet the NATO "threat" with a solid sucker punch...purely defensive, of course.
to isolate him. The numbers are not that large, the effects minimize by the day.
Just spit balling a scenario here...
His military is modernizing quickly, is far more skilled than even 5 years ago. His Air Force IS an air power on the border. His ground forces ARE experienced, well equipped and apparently motivated. He has the ability to rally ethnic tensions and cause divisiveness in former east block states.
His Navy is probably the predominant naval force (with its land based supporting air cover) in the Baltic. When Kuznetsov completes the ISIL mission in January (maybe earlier) she will return for refit in her Baltic home port. She is now currently loaded with 2 full regiments of the much improved MIG29k. She will have or meet up with a substantial surface and submarine escort in the Baltic, and will be approaching NATO East, from the west! He may choose this as an opportune time to bloody a few noses in a "drive by shooting" prempted by some unfortunate border skirmishes to be blamed on NATO, and perhaps torch a few Typhoons, Tornado's, Hornets and Falcons on the ground, crater a few runways etc. If the Kuznetsov battle group ( let's call it that), hits quickly and then dashes for Russian water, he will have given the west some sobering thoughts and if successful enough, drive up nationalism at home even further. It won't take much for the Russians to figure a way to put the blame on NATO. The only thing that might genuinely give him pause about doing that would be if Trump was elected...
Anyway, just a thought. He may meet the NATO "threat" with a solid sucker punch...purely defensive, of course.
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YZT580 said:
Let's be clear, we saw this, the desire to do baby-blue beret style peacekeeping Africa, coming nine months ago, but we also have seen the rise, the real threat, of Russian opportunistic adventurism since Crimea. Many people, including me, will say that Putin had some strategic justification for seizing Crimea but we do need to draw the line at his evident desire to reconnect Kaliningrad to "friendly" territory.
My guess is that Prime Minister Trudeau has been under intense pressure from NATO, the EU and the USA to "step up" since he was elected. He may think that Paul Heinbecker and his friends have the key to much desired, but really quite worthless, second class seat at the UNSC table but the Europeans and Americans can, effectively stop it ... no matter what the Arabs and Africans might say.
This commitment - if it can be help to a smallish (less than, say 750 all ranks) task - can be sustained along with two or even three smallish (100-250 all ranks) engineers, signals, logistics, police tasks in Africa and Latin America.
It's those pesky "events" again ... getting in the way of political flights of fancy.
I also suspect that Prime Minister Trudeau and Minister Dion (and Team Trudeau in the PMO) have learned, by now, that the baby-blue beret missions about which they dreamed are dead and gone ... replaced with missions in which Canadian soldiers might not be welcome or with which Canadian voters might not be comfortable.
Welcome to the real world, Prime Minister.
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The majority of the African missions seem to involve fighting and suffering casualties from Islamic insurgents and Al Queda/ISIL knock offs. There is no opportunity for white, Christian UN forces to be captured without facing some serious personal difficulty, if they live very long at all. So the ROE had better be strong.....
TangoTwoBravo
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Cloud Cover said:
What would the point be for your "drive by shooting?" Are you being serious here?
Oldgateboatdriver
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Of course he is serious: He's bored and wants to start WWIII. :nod:
daftandbarmy
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Cloud Cover said:
Especially since the oil crash Russia (the world's largest oil producer) is on the skids. What do you do in Russia when you are a defacto dictator and things look bad a home? Blame it on the other guys and beef up your military, of course.
No surprises here. Show of force must be matched by show of force, but we can't give Putin a justification for his hubris.
This story by Murray Brewster stating that Canada was a late substitution to head one of the NATO battle groups is reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copy Right Act.
French attacks help propel Canada to NATO front line
France, not Canada, had planned to be among NATO deterrence leaders until mass killings intervened
By Murray Brewster, CBC News Posted: Jul 18, 2016 3:26 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 18, 2016 3:26 PM ET
Canadian troops have been thrust into a leadership position with one NATO's framework battalions in the Baltic states largely because the French have been tied down with military operations at home, CBC News has learned.
Canada announced at the recent Warsaw Summit that it would deploy at least 450 soldiers to Latvia, becoming one-of-four "framework" nations in a 4,000 person, high-readiness multinational brigade.
'France has signaled its intention to serve as a 'framework nation' for the Very High Readiness Task Force in the longer term.'
- Briefing notes for former defence minister Jason Kenney, June 5, 2015
But a series of government, defence and diplomatic sources tell CBC News that — until just recently — many discussions at NATO involved France joining the U.S., Britain and Germany as a lead nation in the combat unit, whose purpose is to deter Russian expansionism in eastern Europe.
Canada originally intended to play only a supporting role in one of those battalions, according to the sources and documents obtained by CBC News under access to information legislation.
The records show the issue was discussed by former defence minister Jason Kenney and his French counterpart in a telephone call prior to a NATO ministers meeting just over a year ago.
"France has signalled its intention to serve as a 'framework nation' for the Very High Readiness Task Force in the longer term," Kenney was told on June 5, 2015.
The documents say France was planning be in the role until at least 2020.
Canada was, at the time the note was written, still "examining how best to contribute" to both the task force and other alliance measures.
Sources say that remained the position when the Liberals came to power last fall.
The idea of Canada taking the lead only emerged last spring as it became clear the French military was becoming increasingly stretched — both at home and abroad — following repeated domestic attacks, including the Charlie Hebdo massacre and the slaughter of concert-goers and restaurant patrons in Paris last November.
The state of emergency in France, which had been expected to end later this month, was extended following the attack last week on Bastille Day revellers in Nice.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed his solidarity with the victims of the latest attack on Monday by signing a book of condolence at French embassy.
France has approximately 7,000 troops deployed domestically on the counter-terror operation known as Op Sentinelle, a heavy burden that has placed "significant strain" on the country's military, the briefer told Kenney last year.
It became clear last winter that the French were only interested in taking up a supporting role at NATO, and sources say chief of defence staff, Gen. Jonathan Vance, saw an opportunity for Canada a leadership role.
The discussions took place among the military, but quickly elevated to the diplomatic level where both the U.S. and Britain turned to Canada to head up the fourth battalion.
"This wasn't on our radar until just a couple of months ago," said one Canadian official, who is familiar with the file, but only authorized to speak on background.
Canada is currently searching for partner nations to fill out its battle group to the estimated strength of 1,000 troops.
Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Poland, and a combined Portuguese and Spanish contingent, are among the potential troop contributors, according to the sources.
Canadian officials, briefing at the Warsaw summit last week, described the brigade that will be stitched along Russia's western border, as "a trip wire" that would set off alarms should Moscow attempt to interfere in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — or even Poland and Romania.
The idea, they said, was to buy time for NATO to mobilize a full response.
Russia could isolate Baltics
But a recent study by the Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, an independent non-governmental agency in Bratislava, Slovakia, raised questions about how quickly and effectively the Russian military could surround and cut off each of the NATO battle groups, in the event of a crisis.
Moscow will soon have the capacity to call out 240,000 troops — roughly 60 brigades — almost at moment's notice, said the report.
Since 2008, the Russian military has had the stated intention of being able to deploy at least 65,000 troops over a radius of 3,000 kilometres within 72 hours. In theory, all of the country's highly trained airborne troops could be moving within 24 hours.
'I think it's pure speculation, at this point.'
- Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk, newly appointed commander of the Canadian Army.
"It is a speed and scale which de facto nobody is able to react to, not even NATO Scandinavian countries or NATO as such itself,"
Perhaps even of more interest to the Canadian military is Russia's intention to install sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-shipping systems in Kaliningrad, a tiny spigot of land sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast.
The deployment of Anti-Access/Area Denial capabilities, especially the S-400 surface-to-air missiles, would not only "terminate NATO's ability to reinforce its units in the region, but also enable it to gain control over almost half of Polish airspace, and huge part of Baltic states' airspace by creating no-fly zones."
The new commander of the Canadian Army downplayed the notion NATO troops could be cut-off in the event of heightened tensions, or even a limited conflict with Russia.
"I think it's pure speculation, at this point, " said Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk.
"It's been quite clear, right from the beginning; right from the (NATO) secretary general down, down to our minister that we're deploying troops forward as part of these composite battalions as a deterrent effect."
Conservative defence critic James Bezan said he believes no one should dismiss the report out hand. It documents Russia's ability to rapidly mobilize and project power, and the Liberal government should take note considering how long it takes NATO and Canada themselves organized with vastly smaller deployments.
"It seems Russia can stand up a fighting capable force…in a matter of days, not months" he said.
"We have to go into this with eyes wide open."
Parliamentarians, Bezan said, want to know as soon as possible which allies will be joining Canada in Latvia, what equipment they'll be bringing, and what the plan might be in the event of a crisis.
"All of the i's need to be dotted and t's crossed, so we know exactly what we're getting into here," he said.
French attacks help propel Canada to NATO front line
France, not Canada, had planned to be among NATO deterrence leaders until mass killings intervened
By Murray Brewster, CBC News Posted: Jul 18, 2016 3:26 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 18, 2016 3:26 PM ET
Canadian troops have been thrust into a leadership position with one NATO's framework battalions in the Baltic states largely because the French have been tied down with military operations at home, CBC News has learned.
Canada announced at the recent Warsaw Summit that it would deploy at least 450 soldiers to Latvia, becoming one-of-four "framework" nations in a 4,000 person, high-readiness multinational brigade.
'France has signaled its intention to serve as a 'framework nation' for the Very High Readiness Task Force in the longer term.'
- Briefing notes for former defence minister Jason Kenney, June 5, 2015
But a series of government, defence and diplomatic sources tell CBC News that — until just recently — many discussions at NATO involved France joining the U.S., Britain and Germany as a lead nation in the combat unit, whose purpose is to deter Russian expansionism in eastern Europe.
Canada originally intended to play only a supporting role in one of those battalions, according to the sources and documents obtained by CBC News under access to information legislation.
The records show the issue was discussed by former defence minister Jason Kenney and his French counterpart in a telephone call prior to a NATO ministers meeting just over a year ago.
"France has signalled its intention to serve as a 'framework nation' for the Very High Readiness Task Force in the longer term," Kenney was told on June 5, 2015.
The documents say France was planning be in the role until at least 2020.
Canada was, at the time the note was written, still "examining how best to contribute" to both the task force and other alliance measures.
Sources say that remained the position when the Liberals came to power last fall.
The idea of Canada taking the lead only emerged last spring as it became clear the French military was becoming increasingly stretched — both at home and abroad — following repeated domestic attacks, including the Charlie Hebdo massacre and the slaughter of concert-goers and restaurant patrons in Paris last November.
The state of emergency in France, which had been expected to end later this month, was extended following the attack last week on Bastille Day revellers in Nice.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed his solidarity with the victims of the latest attack on Monday by signing a book of condolence at French embassy.
France has approximately 7,000 troops deployed domestically on the counter-terror operation known as Op Sentinelle, a heavy burden that has placed "significant strain" on the country's military, the briefer told Kenney last year.
It became clear last winter that the French were only interested in taking up a supporting role at NATO, and sources say chief of defence staff, Gen. Jonathan Vance, saw an opportunity for Canada a leadership role.
The discussions took place among the military, but quickly elevated to the diplomatic level where both the U.S. and Britain turned to Canada to head up the fourth battalion.
"This wasn't on our radar until just a couple of months ago," said one Canadian official, who is familiar with the file, but only authorized to speak on background.
Canada is currently searching for partner nations to fill out its battle group to the estimated strength of 1,000 troops.
Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Poland, and a combined Portuguese and Spanish contingent, are among the potential troop contributors, according to the sources.
Canadian officials, briefing at the Warsaw summit last week, described the brigade that will be stitched along Russia's western border, as "a trip wire" that would set off alarms should Moscow attempt to interfere in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — or even Poland and Romania.
The idea, they said, was to buy time for NATO to mobilize a full response.
Russia could isolate Baltics
But a recent study by the Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, an independent non-governmental agency in Bratislava, Slovakia, raised questions about how quickly and effectively the Russian military could surround and cut off each of the NATO battle groups, in the event of a crisis.
Moscow will soon have the capacity to call out 240,000 troops — roughly 60 brigades — almost at moment's notice, said the report.
Since 2008, the Russian military has had the stated intention of being able to deploy at least 65,000 troops over a radius of 3,000 kilometres within 72 hours. In theory, all of the country's highly trained airborne troops could be moving within 24 hours.
'I think it's pure speculation, at this point.'
- Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk, newly appointed commander of the Canadian Army.
"It is a speed and scale which de facto nobody is able to react to, not even NATO Scandinavian countries or NATO as such itself,"
Perhaps even of more interest to the Canadian military is Russia's intention to install sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-shipping systems in Kaliningrad, a tiny spigot of land sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast.
The deployment of Anti-Access/Area Denial capabilities, especially the S-400 surface-to-air missiles, would not only "terminate NATO's ability to reinforce its units in the region, but also enable it to gain control over almost half of Polish airspace, and huge part of Baltic states' airspace by creating no-fly zones."
The new commander of the Canadian Army downplayed the notion NATO troops could be cut-off in the event of heightened tensions, or even a limited conflict with Russia.
"I think it's pure speculation, at this point, " said Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk.
"It's been quite clear, right from the beginning; right from the (NATO) secretary general down, down to our minister that we're deploying troops forward as part of these composite battalions as a deterrent effect."
Conservative defence critic James Bezan said he believes no one should dismiss the report out hand. It documents Russia's ability to rapidly mobilize and project power, and the Liberal government should take note considering how long it takes NATO and Canada themselves organized with vastly smaller deployments.
"It seems Russia can stand up a fighting capable force…in a matter of days, not months" he said.
"We have to go into this with eyes wide open."
Parliamentarians, Bezan said, want to know as soon as possible which allies will be joining Canada in Latvia, what equipment they'll be bringing, and what the plan might be in the event of a crisis.
"All of the i's need to be dotted and t's crossed, so we know exactly what we're getting into here," he said.
J
jollyjacktar
Guest
"and that's the rest of the story, good day"
daftandbarmy
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Old Sweat said:
"Events, dear boy, events".
Harold Macmillan's response to a journalist when asked what is most likely to blow governments off course
George Wallace
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???
When did France rejoin NATO?
France participates in the EU Bde, and as far as I know that is about it for French participation in Europe with any NATO nations.
When did France rejoin NATO?
France participates in the EU Bde, and as far as I know that is about it for French participation in Europe with any NATO nations.
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George Wallace said:
April 4, 2009.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7937666.stm
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France rejoined in 2009:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7937666.stm
Mark
Ottawa
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7937666.stm
Mark
Ottawa
George Wallace
Army.ca Dinosaur
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Sorry to say....I had to have slept through that one. Rather important event that I totally paid no attention to. [:-[
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MarkOttawa said:
George- NP, it happens.
Mark- I see your Google-fu is as strong as mine [
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