as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.I don’t like to draw on events from an over a century ago, in which a nations entire system of government has changed three times, to inform my view on how they’ll operate now. However if the Baltic fleet either leaves or is destroyed it becomes a moot point. And this whole concern that some how Russia will get the drop on us and mass / execute before any NATO counter is mute.