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A Deeply Fractured US

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For 2024, US projected per capita deficit is $4,500, and Canada's is $1,000. What has happened in Canada with the "guns vs butter" debate is obvious by inspection. We've essentially become powerless, are being sidelined in and excluded from the premier councils of the world, and have no money to fix the problem - instead, we're borrowing heavily. The US occupies a much higher position to start and would have to fall for a while before becoming noticeably weak and will still never reach our position, but as that progresses, the world as a whole will become less secure. No-one else who shares our interests is in a fiscal situation to step up and replace the US presence wherever it fades.

Another annoyance is that our financial situation could be considerably improved by simply selling stuff that we have in surplus and for which there is considerable international demand. We're doing to ourselves.
 
Kirkhill, Brad,

Those last posts are sane political discourse, and that is appreciated.

As I referred to earlier I understand why many have turned to Trump, and as much as I dislike him, I also dislike those who attack people simply because they support him in their desire for change.

I am just very worried that he will end up being a primary enabler of a very dark period in our history.
 
Kirkhill, Brad,

Those last posts are sane political discourse, and that is appreciated.

As I referred to earlier I understand why many have turned to Trump, and as much as I dislike him, I also dislike those who attack people simply because they support him in their desire for change.

I am just very worried that he will end up being a primary enabler of a very dark period in our history.

The worry is real and no sane person would not worry. The problem, I think, is that many people sense that we have already entered into a dark period in our history. Their sense of agency, liberty, pursuit of happiness - those have already been compromised by the existing power structures in the west. The post-war bargain has already been broken.

Trump is effect, not cause.

....

Corporatism was defined as the mid way between the liberalism of the Anglo-Saxon world and the communism of the continent. It was supported by the great and the good on the continent as the antidote to the masses and gave rise to the fascism of Mussolini, Franco and Salazar as well Pilsudski's Colonels in Poland and Christus Rex in Belgium, not to mention Adolf. Those great and good were also found in Britain, Canada and the US.

The thing is, when WW2 saw liberal democracy and communism defeat fascism the great and the good survived as they always do and with them corporatism. They found homes in the new institutions, in particular the EEC/EU and UN as well as the IMF and ICJ et al. They are with us still and inhabit all levels of government, academia and the press internationally. Scorpions and frogs - it is in their nature. Their banners and colours and coats have changed along with their vocabulary but their nature is eternal.

From my stand point, a lifetime away from the end of WW2 and the triumph of liberal democracy, I see a choice between corporatists of the left and corporatists of the right, both dead keen on reimposing an ancient top down order. Their only debate is over which house or clan is to be on top. Feudalism works for some. For them, the real people, everyone else - libertarians, populists, the hoi polloi, the mob.

North West Europe, home of the Thing, the oldest parliament. Frightens the heck out of the corporatists.
 
I am just very worried that he will end up being a primary enabler of a very dark period in our history.
What happened during term 1 is a clue to what is most likely to happen during term 2. We're already in a dark period, and he didn't have much to do with enabling it. If foreign actors are emboldened by perceived US weakness, that's on the current administration.

Apparently, this is a real comment on Axios's X account: "Trump supporters cite his economic record as a reason to vote for him, but that's a bit puzzling. Because his economic record is only good if you leave off what happened from March 2020 to the end of his administration."

A couple of things: First, that it admits the "economic record" was good for 3 years. Second, that it coyly evades mentioning what happened in March 2020.

Another point of evidence: lack of tendency to engage in new wars.

Another point of evidence: when the Iranians shot down a US drone, an option to respond by attacking some Iranian assets was put on the table. Trump declined after initially asking for a response; whether he did so because the casualty estimates were somewhere north of 100+ (Iranians) is up to each person to believe or not for himself. When an Iranian-backed attack a little over 6 months later resulted in the death of an American, that was supposedly the trigger for the Soleimani assassination. Taken together, those don't suggest a highly belligerent president.

Another point of evidence: Trump's administration received a high number of nation-wide injunctions in the courts, and in general consistently complied with court rulings. When they got slapped down, they either dropped the matter or reworked whatever they were trying to achieve, in a few cases going back more than once.

A lot of people are throwing out interviews and articles with "concerns". The "concerns" aren't tethered to analyses of what went before; the "concerns" are what people imagine might happen. That's the realm of "you can prove anything if you are allowed to make up your evidence". No rational person should heed any of that.

My prediction if Trump wins again: he wanders from idea to idea, influenced by the advice of whoever was the last person to speak to him on any particular topic. Any proposed initiative that he thinks will make him look like a Great Person, will be green-lit. The civil service, courts, military, state governments, etc will be full of people he can't appoint who will simply refuse to proceed with anything manifestly unlawful or harmful, and quite a few people who will actively work to subvert even legitimate implementation of policies with which they disagree. There will be no dictatorship, no authoritarian government, no new wars pushed by the White House. There will be a lot of unpleasant noise from Trump himself. People who want aid for Ukraine - or anything else - won't have to make complex policy arguments or explain how it serves US interests; they'll just have to convince Trump that history will see him as a Great Person if he does it.
 
Damn paywall. Being old myself, I wanted to read that.

;)

01/07/24

Dr Olshansky stated on January 7, in an article in The Hill, a Washington-based newspaper: “Today his [Biden’s] chances of surviving through a second term in office are close to 75 per cent (about 10 per cent better survival than for an average man his age). Similar, although slightly less favourable survival prospects are present for Trump.”
 
It's going to be very interesting on Tuesday to see how many Desantis supporters vote Haley because they were "not Trump" republicans and how many will vote Trump because Desantis has thrown in his support for him.
 
It's going to be very interesting on Tuesday to see how many Desantis supporters vote Haley because they were "not Trump" republicans and how many will vote Trump because Desantis has thrown in his support for him.
Probably not that many as the Desantis supporters see Trump as being more in-line to their world-view then Haley is.
 
What happened during term 1 is a clue to what is most likely to happen during term 2. We're already in a dark period, and he didn't have much to do with enabling it. If foreign actors are emboldened by perceived US weakness, that's on the current administration.

Apparently, this is a real comment on Axios's X account: "Trump supporters cite his economic record as a reason to vote for him, but that's a bit puzzling. Because his economic record is only good if you leave off what happened from March 2020 to the end of his administration."

A couple of things: First, that it admits the "economic record" was good for 3 years. Second, that it coyly evades mentioning what happened in March 2020.

Another point of evidence: lack of tendency to engage in new wars.

Another point of evidence: when the Iranians shot down a US drone, an option to respond by attacking some Iranian assets was put on the table. Trump declined after initially asking for a response; whether he did so because the casualty estimates were somewhere north of 100+ (Iranians) is up to each person to believe or not for himself. When an Iranian-backed attack a little over 6 months later resulted in the death of an American, that was supposedly the trigger for the Soleimani assassination. Taken together, those don't suggest a highly belligerent president.

Another point of evidence: Trump's administration received a high number of nation-wide injunctions in the courts, and in general consistently complied with court rulings. When they got slapped down, they either dropped the matter or reworked whatever they were trying to achieve, in a few cases going back more than once.

A lot of people are throwing out interviews and articles with "concerns". The "concerns" aren't tethered to analyses of what went before; the "concerns" are what people imagine might happen. That's the realm of "you can prove anything if you are allowed to make up your evidence". No rational person should heed any of that.

My prediction if Trump wins again: he wanders from idea to idea, influenced by the advice of whoever was the last person to speak to him on any particular topic. Any proposed initiative that he thinks will make him look like a Great Person, will be green-lit. The civil service, courts, military, state governments, etc will be full of people he can't appoint who will simply refuse to proceed with anything manifestly unlawful or harmful, and quite a few people who will actively work to subvert even legitimate implementation of policies with which they disagree. There will be no dictatorship, no authoritarian government, no new wars pushed by the White House. There will be a lot of unpleasant noise from Trump himself. People who want aid for Ukraine - or anything else - won't have to make complex policy arguments or explain how it serves US interests; they'll just have to convince Trump that history will see him as a Great Person if he does it.
My concern is not what Trump may do, but what his minions he appoints may do!!
 
Nikki Haley should ride out the primaries as you never know what might happen both Trump and Biden might croak
It becomes a money issue and it also becomes something that could backfire if she decides to make a run i the future.

I have no idea what happens if a primary candidate croaks. I assume that is one reasons people « suspend » vs end their campaigns (other than the obvious financial reasons to only suspend)
 
you never know what might happen both Trump and Biden might croak

I wouldn't bet money on either one kicking the bucket any time soon.
 
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