A Deeply Fractured US

[RangerRay]

Somewhat surprising given Hobbes’ invisibility and lack of personality compared to Lake’s personal popularity and charisma, despite the crazy talk.

 

[mariomike]

Will we see a Trump vs Desantis destructive race?

Perhaps Ron will sit this one out. He's 44 years old, and has a governorship for the next four years.

But, let's suppose he wins the Republican presidential primary.

Can anyone picture the former guy - if he runs, and loses the primary - giving a warm endorsement to the winner?

Or, possibly doing a Perot 2.0 on Team R.

 

[Rifleman62]

Lake was a TV new presenter in Phoenix, thus very recognizable. Very likable.

 

[Remius]

Perhaps Ron will sit this one out. He's 44 years old, and has a governorship for the next four years.

But, let's suppose he wins the Republican presidential primary.

Can anyone picture the former guy - if he runs, and loses the primary - giving a warm endorsement to the winner?

Or, possibly doing a Perot 2.0 on Team R.

Given his massive win in Florida and the GOP mood for change I think RD runs.

And no, it won’t be pretty…

I could totally see DT run as an i dependant if he does win the primary. I actually expect it lol.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Given his massive win in Florida and the GOP mood for change I think RD runs.

And no, it won’t be pretty…

I could totally see DT run as an i dependant if he does win the primary. I actually expect it lol.

It would be interesting to see the impact DT would have on the GOP vote share if he did run as an independent.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Coyne's observation:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592506524395401217

 

[Remius]

It would be interesting to see the impact DT would have on the GOP vote share if he did run as an independent.

I think it would be disastrous for the GOP if that happens. Trump is a spent force but he still has a loyal base. I don’t underestimate his ability to spoil things for the GOP and the Democrats.

 

[brihard]

I think it would be disastrous for the GOP if that happens. Trump is a spent force but he still has a loyal base. I don’t underestimate his ability to spoil things for the GOP and the Democrats.

DJT is an incredibly spiteful man. Balanced against that, his fear of losing… Could go either way.

Republicans could be in for a really ugly primary.

 

[mariomike]

A Trump / Desantis ( or Desantis / Trump ) ticket in 2024 might be interesting.

Doesn't sound like Mike Pence parted company with his former running mate on good terms.

 

[brihard]

A Trump / Desantis ( or Desantis / Trump ) ticket in 2024 might be interesting.

Doesn't sound like Mike Pence parted company with his former running mate on good terms.

Trump is too much the raging narcissist to share a stage with a dynamic contender. DeSantis is too much not a blithering idiot to enter a race weighed down by the political millstone Trump has become.

 

[Remius]

A Trump / Desantis ( or Desantis / Trump ) ticket in 2024 might be interesting.

Doesn't sound like Mike Pence parted company with his former running mate on good terms.

Wanna bet we see a Trump/Kari Lake ticket? Lol.

 

[brihard]

Wanna bet we see a Trump/Kari Lake ticket? Lol.

I’d love that, but performed entirely by the muppets with John Fetterman as the only actual human.

 

[Navy_Pete]

I think it would be disastrous for the GOP if that happens. Trump is a spent force but he still has a loyal base. I don’t underestimate his ability to spoil things for the GOP and the Democrats.

Also; hilarious.

I'm sure I'll mix up metaphors, but they courted his crazy ass and deliberately lied about election fraud etc to stoke up the base, so this seems like come uppance for playing with fire.

 

[mariomike]

Trump is too much the raging narcissist to share a stage with a dynamic contender. DeSantis is too much not a blithering idiot to enter a race weighed down by the political millstone Trump has become.

Which is why RD may not run for president. This time.

Enjoy your governorship for four more years, then throw your hat in the ring.

He would still be in his forties.

 

[quadrapiper]

I think it would be disastrous for the GOP if that happens. Trump is a spent force but he still has a loyal base. I don’t underestimate his ability to spoil things for the GOP and the Democrats.

Would it? Or would it be the housecleaning they really need?

Trump can draw the Delusional, Bigot, and Asshole votes, and provide room for some muffing of the My Religion Needs To Be Your Religion Too crowd, leaving the Republicans to figure out what they actually have to offer the country.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Seeking political promotion works best while you have momentum. And in US politics, the runner-up of a primary often enough becomes the winner in the next one. (Reagan lost to Ford in 1976, Romney lost to McCain in 2008.) DeSantis risks missing his window and waiting a long time if he passes on 2024 - probably a minimum of two terms.

• if Trump wins primary and general, another Trump term and then probably two Democratic terms
• if Trump wins primary and loses general, probably two Democratic terms
• if another Republican wins primary, probably either two Republican terms (wins general) or two Democratic terms (loses general).

There aren't a lot of practical scenarios for an opportunity in 2028.

 

[Remius]

Would it? Or would it be the housecleaning they really need?

Trump can draw the Delusional, Bigot, and Asshole votes, and provide room for some muffing of the My Religion Needs To Be Your Religion Too crowd, leaving the Republicans to figure out what they actually have to offer the country.

Oh they need a housecleaning but it could be a ten year problem for them.

 

[Remius]

Seeking political promotion works best while you have momentum. And in US politics, the runner-up of a primary often enough becomes the winner in the next one. (Reagan lost to Ford in 1976, Romney lost to McCain in 2008.) DeSantis risks missing his window and waiting a long time if he passes on 2024 - probably a minimum of two terms.

• if Trump wins primary and general, another Trump term and then probably two Democratic terms
• if Trump wins primary and loses general, probably two Democratic terms
• if another Republican wins primary, probably either two Republican terms (wins general) or two Democratic terms (loses general).

There aren't a lot of practical scenarios for an opportunity in 2028.

I agree. I think that DeSantis’ v best chance is now.

 

[mariomike]

Lake was a TV new presenter in Phoenix, thus very recognizable. Very likable.

For those of us who missed her show,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592514270419636228

 

[brihard]

Seeking political promotion works best while you have momentum. And in US politics, the runner-up of a primary often enough becomes the winner in the next one. (Reagan lost to Ford in 1976, Romney lost to McCain in 2008.) DeSantis risks missing his window and waiting a long time if he passes on 2024 - probably a minimum of two terms.

• if Trump wins primary and general, another Trump term and then probably two Democratic terms
• if Trump wins primary and loses general, probably two Democratic terms
• if another Republican wins primary, probably either two Republican terms (wins general) or two Democratic terms (loses general).

There aren't a lot of practical scenarios for an opportunity in 2028.

On the balance, I think I agree. Strike while the iron is hot. We’ll probably know in half an hour, but I think Trump will make a run again. DeSantis could enter a primary in a position of political strength. The Republican establishment are going to be desperately looking for a ‘what’s next?’, and he has a lot of what they’re looking for. If defeated in a primary, Trump may not want the indignity of getting trounced in the general as an independent, which he must surely realize would happen. Third place is the second loser; not sure he’d handle that rejection well. He would probably seek to rationalize avoiding it.