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A Deeply Fractured US

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It was interesting to note that while the Trumpy candidates underperformed Team Normal in “purple” Republican states, left-wing Democratic candidates underperformed centrist Democrats in “purple” Democratic states. I Wisconsin, the Republicans had a beatable unpopular candidate in Ron Johnson. The Democrats nominated a far-left “defund the police” activist who was a Republican caricature of what a Democrat is. Ron Johnson ended up handily beating him, while the rest of the Democratic field for state office, who were more centrist, handily beat their Republican opponents.

The lesson is: don’t run crazy in purple states! Or run candidates who will win, not who gives party activists in another state the warm-and-fuzzies.

It's interesting that you don't mention the name of the Democratic candidate in this race. One could surmise from your use of the term "activist" that the individual was from outside the party mainstream rather than being the incumbent Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin (until 9 January when the newly elected Lt Gov assumes office). Yes, "candidate quality matters" (to borrow @brihard's phrase), but from a cursory look at Lt Gov Barnes' history of local politics, service in the state assembly and later runs for state senate (unsuccessful) and Lt Governor, his political career and rise in the state's Democratic Party would suggest that snagging the party's candidacy slot for US Senator was a natural progression. Of course, being the first Afro-American Lt Gov of the state and the youngest Lt Gov in the nation does call into question his credentials.
 
Republicans have one problem to solve for 2024, which is Trump. I increasingly doubt he can win the primary; I think all he can do is run independently to erode the Republican vote. I doubt the one group that might actually be able to influence him - his family - will enjoy that.

Democrats have several problems, chief of which is getting Biden and Harris to stand aside. Biden has no coat tails and isn't going to grow a set. Harris has nothing. Democrats are talking almost as openly about that as Republicans are about ditching Trump.

Second is that Democrats will be defending more seats in the Senate ("unfavourable map").

Third is shifts in the Democratic voter base.

[Add: Fourth, the dog did not bark. In spite of questionable appearances, no surge of "election denialism" has emerged, which removes it as a potential future campaign issue.]
 
[Add: Fourth, the dog did not bark. In spite of questionable appearances, no surge of "election denialism" has emerged, which removes it as a potential future campaign issue.]

I'd hold off on that for a few more days... See how the AZ governorship goes- Kari Lake is primed to make some really loud and dumb noises. If, against the odds, the Dems eke out a win for the house, especially on the strength of votes tallied very late in the game, we could see a bit more of a pickup in same. Trump's already spouting this nonsense, he's just getting less attention since he's mostly doing it on his own social media echo chamber rather than in front of broader and more relevant audiences. It certainly will not be the potent phenomenon we saw last time. I doubt there are lawyers lined up to jam up the ocurts with frivolous suits and put their licenses at risk. But it won't be completely out of play.

For the Dems, I have no real sense of who they have waiting in the wings. They're gonna need someone dynamic.

For the Republicans, Trump already seems to be sharpening the knife for DeSantis. I think because he know she needs to, as a matter of political survival. Trump has said that he'll be making 'A major announcement' on Tuesday, Nov 15th. I wonder if this will be the 'I'm running'?
 
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Trump has said that he'll be making 'A major announcement' on Tuesday, Nov 15th. I wonder if this will be the 'I'm running'?
I'll finally need to get a Costco membership for the amount of popcorn I'll buy while reading the GOP infighting.

Anticipation Popcorn GIF
 
Republicans now have two years to put their house in order and to present a viable, electable party.

That would be nice. They had an opportunity in 2018 after the blue wave.

And again in 2020 when their incumbent president lost.

As for who is elected president - and vice -in 2024, because they are Commander-in-chief, I hope they have a military background, and tested for mental fitness to handle the nuclear codes.

If 35 is the minimum age for the job, should there be a maximum in the nuclear age? Seconds count at 0400 in some jobs. Maybe not for senators, but it may for a president some day - or night.
 
Republicans have one problem to solve for 2024, which is Trump. I increasingly doubt he can win the primary; I think all he can do is run independently to erode the Republican vote. I doubt the one group that might actually be able to influence him - his family - will enjoy that.

Democrats have several problems, chief of which is getting Biden and Harris to stand aside. Biden has no coat tails and isn't going to grow a set. Harris has nothing. Democrats are talking almost as openly about that as Republicans are about ditching Trump.

Second is that Democrats will be defending more seats in the Senate ("unfavourable map").

Third is shifts in the Democratic voter base.

[Add: Fourth, the dog did not bark. In spite of questionable appearances, no surge of "election denialism" has emerged, which removes it as a potential future campaign issue.]
Concur with all except your fourth point.

Almost all prominent right-wing pundits and a great number of Republican politicians have stirred quite the pot about Maricopa, Arizona at large, and Nevada already, many calling for mail-in ballots to not be counted, decrying that the counting took longer than just election day, pontificating about some states taking longer than others, and some even promoting the idea that mail-in ballots should be made illegal.

No shortage of anti-democratic rhetoric on the GOP side.

Brihard's assessment is more accurate.
 
Yes, there's still potential for election challenges. I'm surprised how muted things are so far. The worst possible outcome is for closely decided races to mostly keep falling one way in jurisdictions that had some mix of poor voting control measures, election day technical or procedural glitches, counting the votes with the weakest custody chain last, and difficulty defining how many votes there are to be counted let alone getting them counted quickly.

Democrats have a thin bench. In part that's because Clinton's second effort wasted an entire cycle during which no-one cared to even start establishing themselves by going up against her. Mostly, though, it's because they're having trouble developing contenders at lower levels.

Trump isn't the only one sharpening knives. "DeSantis is worse than Trump" themes have emerged from Democrat and NeverTrump (my amusement is unbounded) sources. Partly that's just amusing; partly it just lays bare how everything is about political control and not any particular ethical concerns. At least if Trump's endorsements become worthless Democrats might stop funding his endorsed candidates in Republican primaries, and people who claim they're all about the ethics won't have that big stain to avoid talking about.
 
Concur with all except your fourth point.

Almost all prominent right-wing pundits and a great number of Republican politicians have stirred quite the pot about Maricopa, Arizona at large, and Nevada already, many calling for mail-in ballots to not be counted, decrying that the counting took longer than just election day, pontificating about some states taking longer than others, and some even promoting the idea that mail-in ballots should be made illegal.

No shortage of anti-democratic rhetoric on the GOP side.

Brihard's assessment is more accurate.
I read a lot of right-wing punditry. Your characterization ("almost all") is just wrong. Maybe I'm not reading far enough right, but those are flakes, not pundits. Plenty of right-wing pundits are in fact proposing that Republicans simply get on board with new ways of voting. The chief complaint with mailed ballots is control measures, not whether they should be allowed.
 
I am confident I could find examples of more than one person offering any particular election reform (within a somewhat fuzzy domain of "reasonable" ideas). But for now, someone else has to provide a list of who is prominent, and what they are advocating. Otherwise, it goes in the galvanized receptacle of "Canadian conventional opinions", among which are "Republicans are extreme" and "Republicans are working to suppress the vote".
 
It's interesting that you don't mention the name of the Democratic candidate in this race. One could surmise from your use of the term "activist" that the individual was from outside the party mainstream rather than being the incumbent Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin (until 9 January when the newly elected Lt Gov assumes office). Yes, "candidate quality matters" (to borrow @brihard's phrase), but from a cursory look at Lt Gov Barnes' history of local politics, service in the state assembly and later runs for state senate (unsuccessful) and Lt Governor, his political career and rise in the state's Democratic Party would suggest that snagging the party's candidacy slot for US Senator was a natural progression. Of course, being the first Afro-American Lt Gov of the state and the youngest Lt Gov in the nation does call into question his credentials.
I didn’t mean to short-change Mandela Barnes’ qualifications, but my point was to contrast his previous statements on “defund the police” and publicly praising Iranian Press TV with the views of other Democrats running for state-wide office in Wisconsin and how they placed. Especially considering that he was selected in a purple state to run against a beatable Republican. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off.

But your point on not mentioning that Barnes was the Lt. Governor is well taken.
 
I'd hold off on that for a few more days... See how the AZ governorship goes- Kari Lake is primed to make some really loud and dumb noises. If, against the odds, the Dems eke out a win for the house, especially on the strength of votes tallied very late in the game, we could see a bit more of a pickup in same. Trump's already spouting this nonsense, he's just getting less attention since he's mostly doing it on his own social media echo chamber rather than in front of broader and more relevant audiences. It certainly will not be the potent phenomenon we saw last time. I doubt there are lawyers lined up to jam up the ocurts with frivolous suits and put their licenses at risk. But it won't be completely out of play.

For the Dems, I have no real sense of who they have waiting in the wings. They're gonna need someone dynamic.

For the Republicans, Trump already seems to be sharpening the knife for DeSantis. I think because he know she needs to, as a matter of political survival. Trump has said that he'll be making 'A major announcement' on Tuesday, Nov 15th. I wonder if this will be the 'I'm running'?
I don’t know how many times I have heard some version of “Now the Republicans will surely ditch Trump”. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I know his former fixer, Michael Cohen, keeps saying he won’t run because he can’t stand being a loser, but I can’t see Trump’s ego allowing him to take his gold watch and fade into the sunset. As much as the Republican Party may want to start over, they are too scared of the MAGA crowd to ditch Trump. And as popular as DeSantis is in Republican circles , I can’t see him taking on Trump head-to-head.
 
I read a lot of right-wing punditry. Your characterization ("almost all") is just wrong. Maybe I'm not reading far enough right, but those are flakes, not pundits. Plenty of right-wing pundits are in fact proposing that Republicans simply get on board with new ways of voting. The chief complaint with mailed ballots is control measures, not whether they should be allowed.
I'm afraid it would be excessively time-consuming to attempt to map out our respective perspectives on this and fill the gaps.

But here's a few examples of some of the most prominent voices of right-wing America:


While some of those comments, taken on their own in an analytical (academic) context devoid of emotionality, could be pertinent... taken as a whole, as a collective, public ''reaction'' to the election results demonstrates a clear narrative that is being built against the electoral process. It emboldens transparently partisan ideas like that of @ACTBrigitte that @brihard brought up earlier and shows quite convincingly that the Republican party, at least for now, remains the party of authoritarianism, not of democracy.

Especially, when coupled with those folks' aversion to promoting democracy abroad, choosing instead to revere or cozy up with other authoritarians as the case may be.

I'm not allergic to right wing ideas, but the particular brand of right-wing politics that has taken hold of the GOP since 2016 remains acutely unpalatable.

Thanks to the GOP, 60% of Americans saw an election denier on their ballot.
 
Candace Owens isn't a leading voice among either politicians or pundits.

I suggest you look up the characteristics of political authoritarianism.

Don't overlook the Democratic party's funding of "election deniers" during Republican primaries in order to promote candidates they estimated would be easier to beat in the general.

Whatever your criticisms, you'll have to square them with the way Florida runs its elections.
 
Don't overlook the Democratic party's funding of "election deniers" during Republican primaries in order to promote candidates they estimated would be easier to beat in the general.

No argument from me. That was dumb. It could have really bit them in the ass. Either these clowns were such a danger to democracy (as I think they were) and you fight them with other pro-democracy allies, or they’re not and you play silly-bugger political games. Since it turned out for them, the Dems will learn the wrong lesson here.

As one former Republican strategist said, Democrats are holistically bad at politics.
 
Democrats are effective at campaign politics. Did you read the thread we had here about the lamentations of younger generations over the irresponsible spending habits of Boomers? I assume young voters in the US must feel the same way. While both parties overspend, the Democrats have an unquestioned lead over Republicans as overspenders. But young voters are one of the groups of which Democrats captured a much larger share. Surely the student debt forgiveness promise was part of the reason. But apparently most people are too disinterested to follow politics closely - even politics that concern their pocketbook - or they might have known that the promise was egregiously unconstitutional and that the only thing holding it up was the hope no party would find standing in court to challenge it (at least one did, so far). So Democrats booked the votes, the economy stays the way Democrats like it, and they don't even have to pay for the promise (appeal of the decision is unlikely to succeed, even if the administration attempts it).
 
Democrats are effective at campaign politics. Did you read the thread we had here about the lamentations of younger generations over the irresponsible spending habits of Boomers? I assume young voters in the US must feel the same way. While both parties overspend, the Democrats have an unquestioned lead over Republicans as overspenders. But young voters are one of the groups of which Democrats captured a much larger share. Surely the student debt forgiveness promise was part of the reason. But apparently most people are too disinterested to follow politics closely - even politics that concern their pocketbook - or they might have known that the promise was egregiously unconstitutional and that the only thing holding it up was the hope no party would find standing in court to challenge it (at least one did, so far). So Democrats booked the votes, the economy stays the way Democrats like it, and they don't even have to pay for the promise (appeal of the decision is unlikely to succeed, even if the administration attempts it).
I suspect the repealing of Roe v Wade had a lot to do with it as well. Abortion controls tend to have a older following, the younger generations tend to lean towards less regulation.
 
Not so much the decision itself, as the directions taken by states freed up to make their own legislation. Where voters tend to favour some limits, Republican candidates did fine. Elsewhere, poorly. Realistic Republicans expected to pay some kind of price, but abortion as an issue never popped; issue polls repeatedly turned up economy, crime, immigration as higher ranked issues. I suspect increasing polarization has rendered national polls almost useless the same way measuring national popular vote is useless (elections are district- and state-wide); polls have to be conducted state-by-state if people really want to forecast election outcomes.
 
The Economist, as usual, has some thoughts:

"The most important result of the 2022 midterms, for America and for the West, is that Mr Trump and his way of doing politics came out of them diminished. This will disappoint all those people, including the autocrats in Beijing and Moscow, who are looking for signs of American decline."​
"There are no blowout wins in American politics any more. When a party claims that America is theirs, based on how a few thousand votes break in a country of 330m, it is wise to raise an eyebrow and avoid overinterpreting the result. The president’s party nearly always loses seats in the midterms: there have been only three exceptions to this pattern since the civil war ended in 1865. Voters seem to like divided government, which has been the norm in Washington since the 1970s. They punish any party that holds majorities in both chambers of Congress and the presidency, as Barack Obama found in 2010, Mr Trump found in 2018 and therefore Joe Biden’s team must have expected this year. Neither party is currently capable of holding on to a commanding majority of the kind that once allowed them to pursue grand legislative programmes in Washington."​
"[This week's vote] presents an opportunity. Mr Trump can profit from breaking things. Many voters want a fighter, and refusing to concede and inciting a riot is proof of pugilism. After this week’s vote the suspicion that Mr Trump is, in fact, just a loser will be much harder for him to overcome. And that is what his record points to. In 2020 he was the first incumbent since Jimmy Carter to follow a president from the other party and then lose. In 2018 the Republicans lost 41 seats in the House under the Trump banner (Democrats may have lost only a handful this week). Even at his moment of greatest triumph, in 2016, he lost the popular vote and only narrowly beat a candidate who was trying to follow a two-term president from her own party, something which rarely happens. Now 2022 can be added to this less-than-stellar streak."​
"It turns out that common sense can still sometimes beat partisan reflexes after all. At the margin voters distinguish between good and bad candidates, which matters when the margins are thin. American democracy seems healthier and more secure as a result."​
"Where does this leave the country? Alas, for the next two years Congress is likely to become mired in theatrical showdowns over funding the government and pointless investigations into the business dealings of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. America’s real problems will go unanswered."​

And ...

"Walking away from power is a noble American tradition that is almost as old as the republic. By following it, Mr Biden could deny Mr Trump the 2020 rematch he so clearly craves. Republicans in Congress might be a bit less obsessed with blocking anything that could look like a presidential win. And Democrats might make rebuilding democracy more than a self-serving talking point. With his achievements and his party’s relative success in these elections Mr Biden has an opportunity to depart on his own terms. He should use it. "​
 
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