2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Remius]

What a gong show.

 

[Remius]

That reminds me, I have to mail in my ballot lol.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some of the latest

Conservative leadership: A third candidates’ debate will take place…without Poilievre

oicanadian.com

Ask my questions or I won’t attend leadership debate, Leslyn Lewis tells Conservative party

Lewis is the second of five leadership candidates to criticize the party for staging a third debate in the race that ends Sept. 10.

www.thestar.com

Conservative party moving ahead with third debate Aug. 3, still deciding format

The Conservative Party of Canada has set a date for the third – and almost certainly final – debate in its leadership contest.

torontosun.com

 

[RangerRay]

Gad, what a shitshow…

 

[QV]

Poilievre smashes rivals in fundraising

Pierre Poilievre raises more in one quarter than Erin O'Toole did throughout the 2020 contest

www.thewrit.ca

If you didn’t think Pierre Poilievre was on track for a first ballot victory on September 10, the latest fundraising figures might just change your mind.
Because he raised a lot of money.

It isn’t much of a contest. But Poilievre is also outpacing past leadership contestants. In 2020, Peter MacKay raised a little less than $4.1 million in the entire race — Poilievre nearly matched that in a single quarter and is already half a million dollars ahead overall. Erin O’Toole, who ended up winning, raised $3.5 million.

Maxime Bernier was the fundraising leader in 2017 and in that long contest he only raised $2.5 million. Andrew Scheer didn’t even clear $1 million.

So, it is unprecedentedly large amount of money for a single candidate to raise in a single quarter. His nearly 37,000 contributions would be a good number for the entire Liberal Party outside of an election and it is a level the New Democrats haven’t reached since 2015.

No other candidate has nearly as many contributions. Lewis was second at around 5,500, followed by Charest and Baber at about 4,200 apiece. Poilievre is averaging about $110 per donation, while Charest is averaging $328 per donation. Lewis and Baber have similarly small average donations, while Aitchison and Brown were similar to Charest.

 

[Good2Golf]

Oops, QV, looks like you device’s clipboard didn’t past all of the article…

…While the national numbers are very impressive for Poilievre, this race will be decided at the local level. Every riding is worth an equal amount of points regardless of how many voting members are in it. So, the fundraising figures could be clouding Poilievre’s actual ability to win this race.

 

[QV]

The fact is PP's fundraising is unprecedented. I'm sure there are a variety of opinions on what that means.

 

[Remius]

The fact is PP's fundraising is unprecedented. I'm sure there are a variety of opinions on what that means.

Can mean a whole lot of things. I think he’s been able to galvanise his base. Social media, Twitter etc.

He’s been able to reach out in a modern way and is doing a good job of it.

Now does that mean more Canadians are turning to him or just that his base is feeling the need to donate more to the party? Unknown for now.

I think he’s going to win the leadership. He’s not in my ballot choices though but I suspect he will win. I guess we’ll see what the breakdown in points per riding gives him.

 

[FSTO]

Going to see him tomorrow night in Regina. I’ve already voted so I’ll be crowd watching to see what sort of people are there.

 

[Remius]

Going to see him tomorrow night in Regina. I’ve already voted so I’ll be crowd watching to see what sort of people are there.

Enjoy and report back. I’m sure you’ll see a whole variety of people.

 

[suffolkowner]

By the time the federal election happen the CPC might be able to run my neighbours dead dog and win. If the economy holds together than it still might be the conservatives to lose, something they're rather good at. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I'll wait to see the platform before casting my judgement or vote. But the difficulty will remain on gun issues and climate etc...somehow the conservative base has to come to terms with an electable policy or be satisfied with being a protest party that gets its chance every blue moon when the Liberals screw up too much

 

[Jarnhamar]

The fact is PP's fundraising is unprecedented. I'm sure there are a variety of opinions on what that means.

Cue the LPC PR machine which will accuse PP's funding is coming from Russia, overseas bad-actors, and Nazi's.

 

[QV]

By the time the federal election happen the CPC might be able to run my neighbours dead dog and win. If the economy holds together than it still might be the conservatives to lose, something they're rather good at. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I'll wait to see the platform before casting my judgement or vote. But the difficulty will remain on gun issues and climate etc...somehow the conservative base has to come to terms with an electable policy or be satisfied with being a protest party that gets its chance every blue moon when the Liberals screw up too much

It's amusing when people keep saying the only way conservatives will win if they keep trying to be like the Liberals. The last two elections have shown that doesn't work. And coupled with PP's apparent ability to generate significant new interest in the CPC seems to demonstrate that a lot of people prophesizing on this board how the CPC ought to be, might be wrong.

 

[QV]

MSN

Abacus Data’s latest survey of how Canadians would vote if a federal election were held tomorrow finds 37 per cent of 18-29 year olds in favour of the Conservative Party of Canada. This represents a massive 17-point surge since January when just 20 per cent of this age bracket preferred the CPC.

A series of polls over the last year showed the 18-29 demo creeping rightward, but the last few months’ rapid change is unprecedented when it comes to young Canadians turning Conservative.

Its timing suggests credit almost certainly lies with Pierre Poilievre.

Mere months ago, many political insiders and pundits considered such a shift impossible. Now, many of those same people are eager to paint it as evidence of increasing right-wing radicalism, conspiracy culture and intolerance. They’re committed to the narrative that Poilievre’s new base comes from the far right, and specifically former People’s Party of Canada (PPC) supporters.

At least when it comes to millennials and Gen Z, the numbers tell a different story. In the same January to July stretch that saw a surge of support for the CPC, Abacus polls show 18-29 year olds’ intent to vote PPC only dropped by three points.

Meanwhile, Abacus also reports the largest shift downward, by a weighty 10 points, belongs to the NDP. In January, 31 per cent of 18-29 year olds preferred the NDP. Now only 21 per cent do. Crucially, their votes didn’t go to the Liberals, whose support in this period declined by 1 point.

It appears Poilievre’s younger support hasn’t principally come from the right, or even the centre. Counterintuitively, it may be coming from the farther left, with an additional boost from first-time voters who would historically gravitate leftward.

 

[TacticalTea]

MSN

Abacus Data’s latest survey of how Canadians would vote if a federal election were held tomorrow finds 37 per cent of 18-29 year olds in favour of the Conservative Party of Canada. This represents a massive 17-point surge since January when just 20 per cent of this age bracket preferred the CPC.

A series of polls over the last year showed the 18-29 demo creeping rightward, but the last few months’ rapid change is unprecedented when it comes to young Canadians turning Conservative.

Its timing suggests credit almost certainly lies with Pierre Poilievre.

Mere months ago, many political insiders and pundits considered such a shift impossible. Now, many of those same people are eager to paint it as evidence of increasing right-wing radicalism, conspiracy culture and intolerance. They’re committed to the narrative that Poilievre’s new base comes from the far right, and specifically former People’s Party of Canada (PPC) supporters.

At least when it comes to millennials and Gen Z, the numbers tell a different story. In the same January to July stretch that saw a surge of support for the CPC, Abacus polls show 18-29 year olds’ intent to vote PPC only dropped by three points.

Meanwhile, Abacus also reports the largest shift downward, by a weighty 10 points, belongs to the NDP. In January, 31 per cent of 18-29 year olds preferred the NDP. Now only 21 per cent do. Crucially, their votes didn’t go to the Liberals, whose support in this period declined by 1 point.

It appears Poilievre’s younger support hasn’t principally come from the right, or even the centre. Counterintuitively, it may be coming from the farther left, with an additional boost from first-time voters who would historically gravitate leftward.

Same reason Bernie polled better with the right than his closer-to-center opponents.

Anyway, this is interesting but 18-29s generally don't vote, so the impact of this might remain marginal.

 

[QV]

Same reason Bernie polled better with the right than his closer-to-center opponents.

Anyway, this is interesting but 18-29s generally don't vote, so the impact of this might remain marginal.

Traditionally, sure. But the sheer number of donations compared to other leadership candidates past and present indicates there are significant new motivations to: get involved, donate, and eventually vote.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Possibly some have figured out that deficit spending is future taxation.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

CPC is reporting a membership of around 678,000 members, that's about 2-3 times the size of the Liberal membership.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Re: the people he's bringing into the party
“There’s people that signed up for us that are anti-COVID mandates? Yeah, I think that’s safe to say,” said another Poilievre campaign source, who agreed to discuss strategy on the condition they not be named.

“It’s not the only issue, but it definitely is an issue that (has) galvanized across party lines, moreso than any issue I’ve ever seen. There’s a reason why, you know, NDP supporters in Timmins (Ontario) are coming to a Pierre Poilievre rally and signing up to be Conservative Party of Canada members.”

‘This will be Pierre Poilievre’s party’: Conservatives reckon with a new direction - National | Globalnews.ca

Multiple sources tell Global News the Poilievre campaign has drawn in a significant number of new members that haven’t participated in party politics before.

globalnews.ca

We know that Bernier added ~500k votes between 2019 and 2021, primarily campaigning on pushback against vaccination and mandates
We know that ten's or even hundreds of thousands Canadians supported the Convoy, many of them financially
We know the PP's social media game and outreach to that same cohort is incredibly strong.

Put those three together, and I think it's very premature to assume the (quite significant) support he's garnered is a representative sampling of an actual grassroots shift in Canadian thinking rather than an excellent capture rate of a motivated, relatively small, previously identified voting bloc.

 

[Remius]

CPC is reporting a membership of around 678,000 members, that's about 2-3 times the size of the Liberal membership.

And apparently 80k or so have already voted.