2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Halifax Tar]

So ignore the reality of the Canadian voting demographics when selecting a leader, then blame that for staying opposition? Winning strategy.

Right now the Liberals are much more effective about staying in power, and the NDP are more effective at getting some platform items implemented, so looks like a safe bet that CPC will not be able to implement any party platform items on the current trajectory. They'll be visibly annoyed I guess, so shares and likes friendly among the party faithful.

 

[brihard]

The most likely candidate to succeed a Liberal PM is a Conservative. Eventually this will happen. The candidate will be chosen by Conservatives. The majority of Canadians who swing the election will not be deeply politically involved or aware; the worse the party in power is at dealing with the events of the day, the more extreme the alternative can be and still be electable. Those who care deeply about narrow issues will mostly have no influence at the point in time when the mob swings. At each election opportunity, the choice is "this one, or wait for the next one"? Sometimes, the choice is "the bad fit now while I have some influence" versus "the worse fit later when the mob decides".

Sure. Also true is that we seem to tend to vote governments out, with the voting in of the other guys being a byproduct of that. The Liberals may forestall their exit from government if they’re wise enough to change the guard, contingent of course on their being a distinction between dissatisfaction with Trudeau versus dissatisfaction with the party. I believe there’s at least some of that; maybe enough to matter.

 

[RangerRay]

I think the only thing keeping the last two elections bringing Liberal majorities was Justin Trudeau. A more traditional Liberal leader would have easily gotten majorities.

The Tories need to up their game. A bitcoin bro convoy booster, a Laurentian retread from the ‘90s and a sock full of no-names isn’t going to do it.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think the only thing keeping the last two elections bringing Liberal majorities was Justin Trudeau. A more traditional Liberal leader would have easily gotten majorities.

The Tories need to up their game. A bitcoin bro convoy booster, a Laurentian retread from the ‘90s and a sock full of no-names isn’t going to do it.

Well said.

 

[QV]

I think the only thing keeping the last two elections bringing Liberal majorities was Justin Trudeau. A more traditional Liberal leader would have easily gotten majorities.

The Tories need to up their game. A bitcoin bro convoy booster, a Laurentian retread from the ‘90s and a sock full of no-names isn’t going to do it.

PP's record turnouts disagree with you. And if you are a big believer in the media, so does this article:

"Pierre Poilievre is generating more excitement than anything we’ve seen in Canadian politics since Justin Trudeau’s leadership campaign in 2013. And just like Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Poilievre is winning over younger voters."

Data backs up younger voters’ excitement over Pierre Poilievre

There is growing evidence that Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into the anger and frustration of younger suburban voters

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[RangerRay]

PP's record turnouts disagree with you. And if you are a big believer in the media, so does this article:

"Pierre Poilievre is generating more excitement than anything we’ve seen in Canadian politics since Justin Trudeau’s leadership campaign in 2013. And just like Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Poilievre is winning over younger voters."

Data backs up younger voters’ excitement over Pierre Poilievre

There is growing evidence that Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into the anger and frustration of younger suburban voters

www.theglobeandmail.com

No doubt he is getting unprecedented turnouts at his events. That is big news. Some people are really jazzed by what he's saying.

I am less convinced that he will appeal to more than a juiced fringe though. Wacky banking theories (Hello, Social Credit?) and being an attack dog might be enough to win ideological activists in a party leadership race, but they aren't something that builds large coalitions needed to form majority governments.

 

[ArmyRick]

No doubt he is getting unprecedented turnouts at his events. That is big news. Some people are really jazzed by what he's saying.

I am less convinced that he will appeal to more than a juiced fringe though. Wacky banking theories (Hello, Social Credit?) and being an attack dog might be enough to win ideological activists in a party leadership race, but they aren't something that builds large coalitions needed to form majority governments.

Fringe. Theres that word again. Remember when Trudeau referred to a few truckers as a fringe minority?

 

[brihard]

PP's record turnouts disagree with you. And if you are a big believer in the media, so does this article:

"Pierre Poilievre is generating more excitement than anything we’ve seen in Canadian politics since Justin Trudeau’s leadership campaign in 2013. And just like Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Poilievre is winning over younger voters."

Data backs up younger voters’ excitement over Pierre Poilievre

There is growing evidence that Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into the anger and frustration of younger suburban voters

www.theglobeandmail.com

Trump got bigger turnouts at rallies than Biden. Doesn’t mean it turns into sufficient votes to get elected. Not all voters give a shit about political rallies and crowding into a gymnasium or conference hall. The part of the electorate who will actually attend in person campaign events is quite small in absolute terms.

Fringe. Theres that word again. Remember when Trudeau referred to a few truckers as a fringe minority?

And he was correct. Canada’s population is 38,000,000. The convoy protesters - very few of them actual ‘truckers’ - were certainly a ‘fringe minority’. They just caused more drama and bullshit than was expected.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Trump got bigger turnouts at rallies than Biden. Doesn’t mean it turns into sufficient votes to get elected. Not all voters give a shit about political rallies and crowding into a gymnasium or conference hall. The part of the electorate who will actually attend in person campaign events is quite small in absolute terms.

And he was correct. Canada’s population is 38,000,000. The convoy protesters - very few of them actual ‘truckers’ - were certainly a ‘fringe minority’. They just caused more drama and bullshit than was expected.

There's the other factor, the elephant in the room. Just how united will this party be after what has to be one of nastiest most personal campaigns in years if not since the 19th early 20th centuries.

 

[QV]

Fringe. Theres that word again. Remember when Trudeau referred to a few truckers as a fringe minority?

The next step is calling PP and/or his supporters racist. Wait for it.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The article is behind a paywall, so interested to see the data, but it's really key to understand who is excited. It's a leadership race, so the crowd is already the CPC faithful. Good news internally if he is exciting the party faithful, but the other polls still show overall that PP, Charest and the rest have a net loss to the current CPC polling in more voters going to vote Liberal.

Might just be impossible to do with the CPC as long as there is a (overly vocal) Socon and tin foil hat wing that keeps bringing up red lines for a lot of voters. People can dislike abortion, but it's still legal, and the spectre of CPC trying to ban it again will continually erode votes.

Harper fairly ruthlessly suppressed those folks and had success. The others (Including O'Toole) tried to please all of them, and was in turn not trusted by swing voters to not start throwing them bones and chipping away at hard won freedoms.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Remember, though, it's a Canadian tradition to create new laws where no need exists.

Easier to create new laws to pretend to do something than to actually go after those supposed to be enforcing them and educating them/holding them accountable for not.

 

[Haggis]

Easier to create new laws to pretend to do something than to actually go after those supposed to be enforcing them and educating them/holding them accountable for not.

Welcome to the world of legal firearms owners. Place your rights and freedoms on the table over there and have a seat behind that row of miscreants with FPOs that they ignore daily and the Government doesn't track as well as they track you.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Welcome to the world of legal firearms owners. Place your rights and freedoms on the table over there and have a seat behind that row of miscreants with FPOs that they ignore daily and the Government doesn't track as well as they track you.

Oh I am well aware. Criminals get a pass, but citizens who simply are trying to go to work pay their taxes and mind their own business are put on the chopping block.

The fact I can drive down some main streets in my city and in broad daylight see people walking down the street with catalytic converters over their shoulders speaks for itself. It isn’t even the cops fault, the government is the one letting them out instantly and as such have made it so there is no consequences for their actions.

 

[QV]

... but the other polls still show overall that PP, Charest and the rest have a net loss to the current CPC polling in more voters going to vote Liberal...

Such as Ekos? Where the president Frank Graves has been incessantly tweeting his distaste for PP and stating how he'll "make sure you are never going to lead my country"...?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514376713941270532

 

[IKnowNothing]

So ignore the reality of the Canadian voting demographics when selecting a leader, then blame that for staying opposition? Winning strategy.

Worse than that. Have an opportunist caucus revolt to overthrow the member elected leader (and likely next PM), and reverse course on a Red Tory shift that had been gaining ground, all because a very loud vocal minority (even in the CPC) thought Justin was being mean and leapt right into the trap of wedge issue he built up post election. Then blame everyone else.

One of the things I dislike most about Trudeau was his willingness to inflame that situation for political gain and send the country down this path rather than be a proper leader.

One of the things I dislike most about the CPC was that they swallowed the bait whole and it worked.

 

[QV]

Worse than that. Have an opportunist caucus revolt to overthrow the member elected leader (and likely next PM), and reverse course on a Red Tory shift that had been gaining ground, all because a very loud vocal minority (even in the CPC) thought Justin was being mean and leapt right into the trap of wedge issue he built up post election. Then blame everyone else.

One of the things I dislike most about Trudeau was his willingness to inflame that situation for political gain and send the country down this path rather than be a proper leader.

One of the things I dislike most about the CPC was that they swallowed the bait whole and it worked.

Pretty sure O'Toole lost an election already and landed with fewer seats than Scheer had. So, more of that?

Or maybe a winning strategy would be to shift in the direction Harper went, he did win consecutively and obtained a majority after all.

I find it amusing to read all the excuses. What about PP's proposed policy statements so far are bad ideas? Alternatively, what about the PPC election platform were bad ideas? The only thing being swallowed whole is the bullshit coming from the LPC/media spewing nonsense about those who will upend their vision for Canada.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Pretty sure O'Toole lost an election already and landed with fewer seats than Scheer had. So, more of that?

Or maybe a winning strategy would be to shift in the direction Harper went, he did win consecutively and obtained a majority after all.

I find it amusing to read all the excuses. What about PP's proposed policy statements so far are bad ideas? Alternatively, what about the PPC election platform were bad ideas? The only thing being swallowed whole is the bullshit coming from the LPC/media spewing nonsense about those who will upend their vision for Canada.

An iron fist keeping a lid on the unelectable element of the party?

Regarding PP, not bad idea's per se, just simple solutions to complex programs, communicated to capitalize on emotion rather than reason. That an the unfettered irony of a career politician positioning himself as the champion for outsiders. And being the literal embodiment of a soundbite politician and everything that's wrong with politics in the social media age.

Maybe it's all a front and he'll magically turn into a leader if/once he's won, but the PM has to do more than criticize.

 

[QV]

An iron fist keeping a lid on the unelectable element of the party?

Regarding PP, not bad idea's per se, just simple solutions to complex programs, communicated to capitalize on emotion rather than reason. That an the unfettered irony of a career politician positioning himself as the champion for outsiders. And being the literal embodiment of a soundbite politician and everything that's wrong with politics in the social media age.

Maybe it's all a front and he'll magically turn into a leader if/once he's won, but the PM has to do more than criticize.

Lots of criticism of PP around here. So if you had to chose today, Trudeau or PP as PM, which would it be?

 

[IKnowNothing]

Lots of criticism of PP around here. So if you had to chose today, Trudeau or PP as PM, which would it be?

Pre August 2021 - Trudeau (though I've never voted for him). Like I said, I hate the decision to prioritize attacking the CPC with the Covid wedge rather than lead the country. It stoked flames that O'Toole and the premiers helped keep largely dormant, and he stabbed them in the back for it. (For which Ford returned the favour by abandoning Ottawa to force Trudeau to be the villain)

Now- neither.