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Why Europe Keeps Failing........ merged with "EU Seizes Cypriot Bank Accounts"

The Swiss seem to be preparing for the worst case scenario:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/guest-post-do-swiss-know-something-rest-us-dont

Guest Post: Do The Swiss Know Something The Rest Of Us Don't?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2012 15:56 -0400
Via John R. Schindler of The XX Committee,

Do the Swiss know something the rest of us don’t?

Ueli Maurer, the Swiss defense minister, has been making coy statements about the European crisis getting ugly – as in really ugly, like needing armed troops to deal with it. This sounds more like Greece, where the rioting is regular and increasingly scary, than anything in Central Europe, but where the whole EU furball is headed does seem less than clear of late.

The Swiss are famous for preparing for everything and having an absolutely huge army, relative to their population, to deal with any eventuality. They maintain their special military system, based on training for nearly the whole male population but a very small active duty cadre (plus a few, tiny UN peacekeeping-type missions abroad, since the Swiss have an actually defensive defense force): the Swiss can call up over 200,000 trained troops, which is but one-third of what was on-call twenty years ago – like everyone, they have downsized as the threat has receded since the fall of the Soviet bloc – but that’s still pretty huge in Swiss terms. In America, that would mean a mobilization strength of nearly 8,000,000 for the U.S. military (it’s a hair under three million, in case you were wondering).

Minister Maurer, accompanied by whispers from the top uniformed leadership in Switzerland, is trying to raise awareness that Europe’s massive fiscal-cum-political crisis could get very unpleasant. Swiss military exercises in September, called STABILO DUE, were based on EU instability getting out of hand. The Swiss have stayed out of the EU – one more thing the very prosperous Swiss are gloating about these days – and they certainly don’t want EU problems spilling over into their peaceful little country. That the Swiss military is adding four new military police battalions to the army, to be spread around the country, indicates that the threat they have in mind is more disorder and chaos than actual invasion.

The Swiss are in the process of modernizing their military, which they have discovered is very expensive; the purchase of 22 new Saab Gripen fighters has proved a big political headache, since the Swiss are as notable for their frugality as for their military preparedness. But Minister Maurer is on firm ground when he notes that the massive decline in European militaries since 1990 has implications for today, none of them positive. When even the British have cut their army so much that, in the event of a serious crisis, there would be at most two dozen infantry battalions on hand in the UK (that’s well under 20,000 bayonets), one has to wonder if the next London “disturbances” could be kept in check if things got truly ugly. It’s commonly held by European security insiders that if the next Anders Brievik were to target Muslims, not fellow Europeans, things could get unimaginably ugly very quickly. It is difficult to see how Europe’s much smaller militaries could cope with massive civil disturbances. (And don’t ask Uncle Sam for help, since the very last thing the Pentagon wants is to get dragged into any riot suppression – particularly putting down Muslim uprisings – anywhere in Europe.)

It’s easy to dismiss the Swiss, since they are a tiny country whose military hasn’t actually fought anybody in a couple centuries. On the other hand, they managed to stay out of both of Europe’s catastrophic World Wars precisely though preparing for eventualities and maintaining a strong defensive capability. They’re clearly on to something.

Of course, what many people (including this poster) don't seem to be aware of is many European police forces have a paramilitary component, so the number of bayonets on the ground would be larger than a simple head count of the military would suggest. It still isn't that many extra bayonets in the grand scheme of things, so the overall thesis is still valid, but it does mean that , if used quickly and effectively enough, there could be enough forces on hand to smother a disturbance before it gets out of hand, providing a window of opportunity for the nation in question to do something before the next outbreak, or before there is spillover from a neighbouring country.
 
Thucydides said:
Of course, what many people (including this poster) don't seem to be aware of is many European police forces have a paramilitary component, so the number of bayonets on the ground would be larger than a simple head count of the military would suggest. It still isn't that many extra bayonets in the grand scheme of things, so the overall thesis is still valid, but it does mean that , if used quickly and effectively enough, there could be enough forces on hand to smother a disturbance before it gets out of hand, providing a window of opportunity for the nation in question to do something before the next outbreak, or before there is spillover from a neighbouring country.

Also, some European paramilitary police forces are equipped with aircraft and armoured vehicles (e.g. APC's, armoured cars, etc).
 
E.R. Campbell said:
I think the Eurozone faces two impossible choices:

1, Quickly, almost immediately, move to greater integration, which, de facto means that Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France surrender sovereignty ~ there would be blood on the streets; or

2. Accept a Greek default, followed by a Portuguese default, followed by a Spanish default which will plunge Europe - indeed the whole world - into a recession that will make 2008 look like fun.

I'm not sure which is worse ... but my banker and I prefer European blood on European streets to another, wholly preventable, Great Recession.


And Prof. Dani Rodrik (Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government) agress with me in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Project Syndicate:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-economic-integration-implies-political-unification-by-dani-rodrik
The Truth About Sovereignty

Oct 8, 2012

Dani Rodrik

CAMBRIDGE – In the French parliament’s recent debate on Europe’s new fiscal treaty, the country’s Socialist government vehemently denied that ratification of the treaty would undermine French sovereignty. It places “not one constraint on the level of public spending,” Jean-Marc Ayrault, the prime minister, asserted. “Budget sovereignty remains in the parliament of the French Republic.”

As Ayrault was trying to reassure his skeptical colleagues, including many members of his own party, European Commissioner for Competition Joaquin Almunia was delivering a similar message to his fellow social democrats in Brussels. To succeed, he argued, Europe must prove wrong those who believe there is a conflict between globalization and sovereignty.

Nobody likes to give up national sovereignty, least of all, it seems, politicians on the left. Yet, by denying the obvious fact that the eurozone’s viability depends on substantial restraints on sovereignty, Europe’s leaders are misleading their voters, delaying the Europeanization of democratic politics, and raising the political and economic costs of the ultimate reckoning.

The eurozone aspires to full economic integration, which entails the elimination of transaction costs that impede cross-border commerce and finance. Obviously, it requires that governments renounce direct restrictions on trade and capital flows. But it also requires that they harmonize their domestic rules and regulations – such as product-safety standards and bank regulations – with those of other member states in order to ensure they do not act as indirect trade barriers. And governments must forswear changes in these policies, lest the uncertainty itself act as a transaction cost.

This was all implicit in the European Union’s single-market initiative. The eurozone went one step further, aiming through monetary unification to eradicate fully the transaction costs associated with national currencies and exchange-rate risk.

Simply put, the European integration project has hinged on restrictions on national sovereignty. If its future is now in doubt, it is because sovereignty stands in the way once again. In a true economic union, underpinned by union-wide political institutions, the financial problems of Greece, Spain, and the others would not have blown up to their current proportions, threatening the existence of the union itself.

Consider the United States. No one even keeps track of, say, Florida’s current-account deficit with the rest of the country, although we can safely guess that it is huge (since the state is home to many retirees living off benefits that come from elsewhere).

When Florida’s state government goes bankrupt, Florida’s banks continue to operate normally, because they are under federal rather than state jurisdiction. When Florida’s banks go belly-up, state finances are insulated, because the banks are ultimately the responsibility of federal institutions.

When Florida’s workers become unemployed, they get unemployment checks from Washington, DC. And when Florida’s voters are disenchanted about the economy, they do not riot outside the state capital; they put pressure on their representatives in Congress to push for changes in federal policies. Nobody would argue that US states have an abundance of sovereignty.

The relationship between sovereignty and democracy is also misunderstood. Not all restrictions on the exercise of sovereign power are undemocratic. Political scientists talk about “democratic delegation” – the idea that a sovereign might want to tie its hands (through international commitments or delegation to autonomous agencies) in order to achieve better outcomes. The delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank is the archetypal example: in the service of price stability, daily management of monetary policy is insulated from politics.

Even if selective limitations on sovereignty may enhance democratic performance, there is no guarantee that all limitations implied by market integration would do so. In domestic politics, delegation is carefully calibrated and restricted to a few areas where the issues tend to be highly technical and partisan differences are not large.

A truly democracy-enhancing globalization would respect these boundaries. It would impose only those limits that are consistent with democratic delegation, possibly along with a limited number of procedural norms (such as transparency, accountability, representativeness, use of scientific evidence, etc.) that enhance democratic deliberation at home.

As the American example illustrates, it is possible to give up on sovereignty – as Florida, Texas, California, and the other US states have done – without giving up on democracy. But combining market integration with democracy requires the creation of supranational political institutions that are representative and accountable.

The conflict between democracy and globalization becomes acute when globalization restricts the domestic articulation of policy preferences without a compensating expansion of democratic space at the regional/global level. Europe is already on the wrong side of this boundary, as the political unrest in Spain and Greece indicates.

That is where my political trilemma begins to bite: We cannot have globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty simultaneously. We must choose two among the three.

If European leaders want to maintain democracy, they must make a choice between political union and economic disintegration. They must either explicitly renounce economic sovereignty or actively put it to use for the benefit of their citizens. The first would entail coming clean with their own electorates and building democratic space above the level of the nation-state. The second would mean giving up on monetary union in order to be able to deploy national monetary and fiscal policies in the service of longer-term recovery.

The longer this choice is postponed, the greater the economic and political cost that ultimately will have to be paid.


Prof. Rodrik is right: political integration was implicit in the creation of the eurozone but it was, and maybe still is, too politically hard to swallow.

His trilemma is also rioght: Europe, parts of Europe, anyway, must choose between globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty: they need globalization for prosperity (which they need for social harmony/domestic peace); democracy must be non-negotiable - we have, with my living memory, seen the results of failures of democracy in Europe; that leaves sovereignty and, frankly, in the full flow of history, France, qua France, doesn't matter a damn: it can be a poor, backward sovereign state or a prosperous province of Greater Germany; it, France, is just a pimple on the prick of progress.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
France, doesn't matter a damn: it can be a poor, backward sovereign state or a prosperous province of Greater Germany; it, France, is just a pimple on the prick of progress.

Just one problem with that:

pd716948.jpg


Or the nation-states of Europe can re-establish their borders and deal with each other as good neighbours do: with fully functioning borders (aka "fences") and deal with each other in good faith. 
 
Technoviking said:
Just one problem with that:

pd716948.jpg


Or the nation-states of Europe can re-establish their borders and deal with each other as good neighbours do: with fully functioning borders (aka "fences") and deal with each other in good faith.


The nation-states of Europe have no history of dealing with one another in good faith; the Treaty of Westphalia (1648) just recognized that fact and set some rules for moving from the normal levels of lying, cheating and stealing to the almost as normal state of outright war. Europe is a continent of peoples, not of nations, the experience of nationhood is recent, compared to, say, China, and weak. Even when there were strong, cohesive nation-states, 2,000 years ago, they were surrounded and, eventually, overcome by the peoples.

The German volk, pictured above, are just the latest to swarm over their neighbours. Only the English, the Scandinavians and the Swiss seem inclined to both protect their own borders and eschew intruding into other realms, and those are very recent tendencies (a few hundred years, only) in all cases.
 
The German volk, pictured above, are just the latest to swarm over their neighbours

Oh....you mean what Africa is now....
 
Here is Europe's latest attempt to fail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism

The short version:  There are a lot of countries in Europe that simply can't sell bonds. The market expects them to default, and so nobody will lend them money without demanding exorbitant interest. Which means they can't borow any more money to finance their deficits. This inability to fund their deficit spending, most European pundits will tell you, is the core of the financial crisis in Europe.

Europe's solution then, is to create a fund (provided by Germany, Finland, and Holland) to lend money to those countries which can't finance their deficits on the open bond market. This is proposed as the definitive solution to the crisis.

These experts, politicians, and economists will tell you that the basis of this crisis is the fact that these incompetent countries can't borrow ENOUGH money.  Which is, to be diplomatic, as stupid as a bucket of wet hair.


In other news,

There are plans to hold massive protests throughout the visit of Angeka Merkel to Greece. There is a huge amount of resentment against Germany in many parts of Europe these days. Naturally. Because Greece was in dire straights and asked Germany for unimaginable sums of money... which Germany reluctantly lent them... Now most Greeks want to burn them and not pay it back... so the Greeks are... mad at the... Germans?




Mr Campbell's points about sovereignty and integration are at the root of both of these. Right now in Europe you have other people responsible for your debts (integration), but they have no say in how you spend your money (sovereignty).

That's not a sound position moving forward, but it is a position from which the majority of the parties involved are refusing to move.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The nation-states of Europe have no history of dealing with one another in good faith; the Treaty of Westphalia (1648) just recognized that fact and set some rules for moving from the normal levels of lying, cheating and stealing to the almost as normal state of outright war. Europe is a continent of peoples, not of nations, the experience of nationhood is recent, compared to, say, China, and weak. Even when there were strong, cohesive nation-states, 2,000 years ago, they were surrounded and, eventually, overcome by the peoples.
By "Nation" I mean "People":

a large body of people, associated with a particular territory, that is sufficiently conscious of its unity to seek or to possess a government peculiarly its own:

The model of a large united Europe cannot let go of the identity that many have.  Greeks are not Italians who are not French who are not German who are not Austrian who are not....and on it goes.  The history of these peoples is, of course, confusing at best, but of course the idea of even some states such as "Germany" are also fairly recent.  Having said that, the current model is failing, horribly, and not being an economist, but having somewhat of an understanding of people, you cannot force people to do anything.  Yes, it may be in France's long term interest to become a rump of say German governance, but that will never happen.  Not unless we see Schlieffen round 3...

But looking at the Swiss model, they have very strong borders.  They seem to be doing rather well for themselves, this state of four (or more) peoples.  As for the German model, they too are of several peoples (Hessians, Prussians, Saxons, Bavarians, Swabians, etc etc).  They have found a common bond ("German" in its various forms) and have proven to be a (mostly) successful experiment.

But so long as Greece etc. remain with those identities as a people, the EU will fail.  And I cannot see *any* "people" of Europe letting go of their identity anytime soon.
 
I actually agree with what the Technoviking says ... but some European countries/peoples/nations are unfit to survive in the 21st century; they have option: return to a mid 19th century standard of living, which they can afford, or surrender some (rather a lot) of their precious sovereignty to a super-state which will manage their affairs for them. There are quite a few countries on that list: Greece, of course, Portugal, Spain , Italy, maybe Ireland and France, too. Several of them share 500+ years of a common culture of social, economic and political mismanagement. Some of the Eastern European states will, I am fairly, certain march down the same path.

But, rest assured: those failing countries are not e.g. Finland and they cannot sustain e.g Dutch standards of living and social services because, unlike the Dutch or Finns, they have a cultural heritage of reliance upon some sort of benevolent higher authority rater than on their own, individual, effort. There is no benevolent higher authority - only a German led central bank that will tell how many weeks of vacation you can have each year (think less than three) and what your retirement age can be (think 67. And of course, if you are Greece or Italy or even France you can reject this ... and private automobiles and electricity in middle class homes and adequate health care and so on ... but it's your free choice.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And of course, if you are Greece or Italy or even France you can reject this ... and private automobiles and electricity in middle class homes and adequate health care and so on ... but it's your free choice.

I think you said what I was thinking.  :cheers:


(As an aside, how long does it take you to type Technoviking ?  ;D

 
Technoviking said:
I think you said what I was thinking.  :cheers:


(As an aside, how long does it take you to type Technoviking ?  ;D


You should change your name to "Schrödinger's Cat," which doesn't merit as much colour ...

10571design-1.jpg

Schrödinger's Cat
 
Technoviking said:
(As an aside, how long does it take you to type Technoviking ?  ;D

Just once...it's such a dog's breakfast, you only want to do it once then store it away..... :nod:
 
E.R. Campbell said:
You should change your name to "Schrödinger's Cat," which doesn't merit as much colour ...

10571design-1.jpg

Schrödinger's Cat


:rofl:

 
E.R. Campbell said:
Europe is a continent of peoples, not of nations, the experience of nationhood is recent, compared to, say, China, and weak. Even when there were strong, cohesive nation-states, 2,000 years ago, they were surrounded and, eventually, overcome by the peoples.

How are you defining "nation" and "peoples" given you have also used the term "nation-states?" Nation-states have defined European politics for some time, certainly since the French Revolution and I would argue before that as well. Nations/peoples with an underlying consensus distinct from other nations have certainly existed for a long time in Europe. I would argue that China's sense of being a true modern nation-state is much more recent than Europe's. If you are refering to the Roman Empire as a nation-state then I think you are stretching the concept of nation-state somewhat. That was an empire.
 
Tango2Bravo said:
How are you defining "nation" and "peoples" given you have also used the term "nation-states?" Nation-states have defined European politics for some time, certainly since the French Revolution and I would argue before that as well. Nations/peoples with an underlying consensus distinct from other nations have certainly existed for a long time in Europe. I would argue that China's sense of being a true modern nation-state is much more recent than Europe's. If you are refering to the Roman Empire as a nation-state then I think you are stretching the concept of nation-state somewhat. That was an empire.


China has seen itself as a distinct nation, in both the people and territorial sense - that's why they built that bloody wall - for about 3,500+ years. It has called itself the middle kingdom (being in between the "kingdom of heaven," above, and the barbarians, below and surrounding China) for more than 2,500 years. More important, China's neighbours and enemies have regarded it as a nation and and nation-state for just as long. It has had several civil-wars but, post the Qin emperor, the Chinese always described them as that and that speaks to China's definition of itself as a nation-state. China was as a nation and a nation-state when most Europeans were still painting themselves blue and eating with their fingers.

Rome, the kingdom and then the republic, was a well defined nation-state circa 2,500 year ago, too ~ long before it had imperial ambitions.

The modern European nation-state, living within defined borders, is, in some part, a creation of the Peace of Westphalia, but we can argue that England, France and Spain were all well defined nation-states, some holding sway over two or more peoples, for a hundred or more years before that. But as you state, some parts of Europe did not define their own nationhood until after Napoleon.

The semantics, however, do  not alter the "facts on the ground:" some modern, European nation-states are not viable in their current political and economic forms. They cannot provide their people with the services and protection that are the very essence of the nation-state.
 
Tango2Bravo said:
How are you defining "nation" and "peoples" given you have also used the term "nation-states?" Nation-states have defined European politics for some time, certainly since the French Revolution and I would argue before that as well. Nations/peoples with an underlying consensus distinct from other nations have certainly existed for a long time in Europe. I would argue that China's sense of being a true modern nation-state is much more recent than Europe's. If you are refering to the Roman Empire as a nation-state then I think you are stretching the concept of nation-state somewhat. That was an empire.

I think that was his point.  China has been a far more homogenised state for much longer than Europe has.  And his point is that even 2000 years ago, even under the Roman Empire, European nations were never nation states as such.  It seems that nation state status has been forced on europe more than embraced.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
China was as a nation and a nation-state when most Europeans were still painting themselves blue and eating with their fingers.

And what did that do for China when modern, real nation-states from Europe arrived? What of the upheavals in China in the last century? How will their conception of nation survive when their competitive advantage, low-paid labour, starts to wonder when they will enjoy the fruits of their labour?

There were certainly what we might call states in Europe in the classical period, but I do not think that they really compare with the nation-states that arose with the industrial revolution.

In any case, my point in questioning your use of terms was focused on modern Europe. The nation-states of Europe matter more than the EU folks would care to admit. There are differences between them in how they view the world, and we cannot simply wave our hands and say that they have no history as nations or nation-states.

We'll see if the EU survives this crisis in its current form.
 
Crantor said:
I think that was his point.  China has been a far more homogenised state for much longer than Europe has.  And his point is that even 2000 years ago, even under the Roman Empire, European nations were never nation states as such.  It seems that nation state status has been forced on europe more than embraced.

Who exactly forced nation-state status on the Europeans? Some came later than others, but they pretty much came up with the concept.
 
I want to keep this historical tangent alive for a bit:

First, there is nothing I can find that is especially European about the concept of nation or nation state. Both exist in our earliest historical reckoning in the Near and Middle East around 4,000 years ago and in Asia, China, anyway, at about the same time.

Second, our personal heritage tends to give us a very Eurocentric point of view. There's no shame in our European heritage but it is not the only thing that worked over the past 6,000 or so years of recorded history.

Third, while nations and nation-states are the norm, and have been for 500/1,500/3,500 (delete the numbers you don't like) years they are not the only political models that can work. I don't know how well any of the other possible models might work in the 21st century but for some peoples the nation-state is failing.
 
 
Tango2Bravo said:
Who exactly forced nation-state status on the Europeans? Some came later than others, but they pretty much came up with the concept.

Going back far enough (in Europe anyway), the city state was the concept that ruled.  In Greece, the Spartans and Athenians jostled for dominance wirth other city states either swearing fealty or being subjegated by the stronger city states.  The Macedonians put an end to that but Greece was still a territory of many city states, all hellenistic but ruled by Macedon.  The same way the Romans subjugated the surrounding Italian city states.  And warring with other powerful City states like Carthage for control of the mediterranean or running into "peoples" who could hardly be considered states but occupied territory.  Rome also had client puppet states or provinces.  Provinces and boundaries dictated by Rome but that had even further history as far as the land goes.  After Rome fell we see warlords and kingdoms rise, some small some large but throughout time and even more recently the maps have been drwn and redrawn.  Puppet governments to larger interests, religious seperations etc etc.  Yes Europe has done it to itself but like an oversized child, the body has grown but the maturity isn't there.
 
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