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"What if??" A thread for people who like to speculate

And more:

As dawn broke over Europe on 1 January 1944, there was a noticable change in the course of the war.  In one year, the Germans had gone from operating on two continents to one.  No longer were they fighting in Africa, and in the Soviet Union, they were on a line roughly from Leningrad in the north to Smolensk in the centre and Zaparozhe in the South.  The Crimea was under German rule, and scores upon scores of blackened hulks of Soviet tanks littered the fields near Belgorod.  The German "Landser", or infantryman, made up the bulk of the German front lines, encased by earth and concrete, and supported with Anti tank guns, minefields and wire.  The scene was eeriely similar to the Western Front in the "old war". 
Italy was no longer a member state of the "Axis" powers.  Mussolini was thrown out and in his place the "new" government sued for peace with the Western Allies.  The Wehrmacht had occupied all of Italy, save for southern parts of the boot now under Anglo-American occupation.
France was being fortified day by day, with particular emphasis on the coast between Cherbourg and Le Havre, as well as many of the other channel ports up to Antwerp.  The bombers were leaving Germany alone, due to the now-implemented Wasserfall air defence system.  As a result, German cities were being repaired and the war production, long since under Speer's guiding hands, were starting to churn out more and more war material.  Still, the losses suffered in the East and in Africa took their toll on the Wehrmacht.  As new replacements were being trained, there just wasn't enough manpower to go around.
ENIGMA II was ready for implementation and soon the U Boats would be free to conduct unrestricted warfare upon the shipping lanes of the Atlantic.  In the meantime, US and Canadian convoys were able to take full advantage of the lull to make the UK a virtual armed camp, sitting like a spring ready to explode upon the continent.
The Soviets weren't able to launch their offensive due to delays in production of tanks and training of crews.  Of the infantry there was always enough, and instead of husbanding this vital resource for the upcoming offensive, they were thrown needlessly at the Germans near Leningrad, in a vain attempt to break that seige.  It was becoming known as "Stalingrad of the North" for the Russians, not because of their vaunted victory there of the year before, but because of the losses they suffered: some regiments were down to 10% of their effective strengths after only one week's worth of combat!
Although the German High Command knew that offensive action was the decisive action in war, they also realised that they didn't have the resources to deal a knockout blow to any of their enemies.  Their Schwerpunkt remained the Eastern Front, and it was decided to bleed off the Soviet Army to the point where a decisive attack could be made.  This time, the goal would not be territorial, but rather would be centred on the destruction of Soviet men and material.
In the West, their goal was to fight a delaying operation across Italy, allowing the Allies and themselves to destroy that nation, if necessary, in order to bleed off western material.  In France, when the invasion came, the plan was to destroy it on the beaches, handing the Western Allies a blow from which they could not recover any time soon.  That would offer the Germans a virtual free hand in the East.  Although they had plans for offensive operations in the East, it would not start until certain conditions were met.  First, the Western Allies would be destroyed on the beaches of France, and secondly the Russians had to attack in order to make the front fluid.  The Germans realised that they lacked the strength to bust through a fortified defensive line at the strategic level, but they had more than enough combat power to destroy any foe on a fluid battlefield.
WASSERFALL DETECTED
The US/UK bombing offensive over the Reich once again started up in early March.  Once again, the bombing forces were decimated.  This time, however, a UK radio operator from a bomber that survived the raids reported picking up some strange signals on his set.  He was an amateur radio junkie and he often wondered if there was a way to pick up the German RADAR signals with his own radio.  As they approached Germany one night, he picked up a strange signal where no RADAR had previously been used.  He dutifully reported this upon his return to the UK, and the intelligence forces investigated further.
A week later, on 28 March 1944, a specially outfitted bomber accompanied a UK raid over the Ruhr.  As was anticipated, the force suffered grave losses.  The bomber that accompanied the force flew some five thousand feet above the others.  It monitored for and recorded the radio intercepts and returned to England for analysis.
It was quickly deduced that the Germans had some specially outfitted rockets that could "home in" on radio returns from the attacking aircraft.  The radio signals detected were the broadcast beams.  In typical eccentric English fashion, a bombing force was specially outfitted with a number of countermeasures.  Some bombers had "Chaff": aluminium foil they would drop upon discovering that they were "painted" by the guiding radar.  Others would broadcast "white noise" on the very frequencies used by the radar.  In one case a bomber made completely from wood (less the engines, naturally) was sent to see if it would look "invisible" to the searching radars.
On 15 April, 1944, a UK bombing force set out for the Ruhr.  The lead planes were to detect and then bomb the searching radars.  Knowing that accuracy for these planes would be dubious at best, a number of "Specials" accompanied the attacking force.  As they crossed into Germany, the usual assortment of night fighters broke off their attacks, and the lead "Pathmakers" soon picked up the radar signals as they searched the night skies for the incoming British bombers.  Using simple radio triangulation, the sources of the RADAR were soon picked out and the "pathmakers" gave instructions to the "Pathfinders" to illuminate the RADAR stations. 
The RADAR operators were shocked to find themselves suddenly illuminated by parachute flares as the pathfinders dropped their loads over their sites.  The follow on forces then attacked.  As was anticipated, the results were poor, but not without psychological effect.  Though only one RADAR site was knocked out, a panicky controller in Cologne ordered all WASSERFALL Radar sites to temporarily shut down.
The follow on "Specials" noted with glee that the RADAR signals all shut off, pretty well at once.  The attacking force was able to proceed with virtually no losses and most bombs were delivered on target: a synthetic oil production facility somewhere in the Ruhr.
In the weeks that followed, the Allies and the Germans played a massive chess game of counter-measure, counter-counter measure.  In the end, the Allied casualty rates for their bombing formations dropped to nearly 15% of attacking formation.  Still a high cost, but certainly much better than the close to 40% they were suffering initially.  As well, the German WASSERFALL Radar sites were forced to go mobile in order to avoid the Allied bombing efforts.


More to come.
 
PREPARATIONS IN THE EAST
The Soviets finally had the resources together for an offensive in the East.  Operation BAGRATION was ready to launch for early June, 1944.  Its aim was to isolate those forces in the North of the USSR that were right now isolating Leningrad.  Striking westward from the area of Novgorod, the Soviets initial objective was Pskov (Peskau as renamed by the Germans) and then on to the final objective of Riga.  The force would then seal off the entire Baltic region and trap within it, it was hoped, the entirety of Army Group North.
To accomplish this task, some three tank armies and six guards armies were earmarked.  The plan was simple: following a massive artillery and aircraft bombardment of the front from Leningrad to Novgorod, infantry forces would infiltrate the German front lines, clearing a path for the tanks to break through.  Once in Pskov, two guards armies would cover the northern flank as the remaining elements of the "Moscow Front" would drive on to Riga.  The Germans would not be able to handle such a massive force and they believed that the Germans were expecting an attack further south.
As it turned out, the Germans were well aware of BAGRATION and its intended objectives.  Though the start date was as yet unknown, preparations were well in hand.  Realising that they needed the Russians on the move to be able to defeat them, woefully few improvements were made at the front.  Here and there bridges in the depth behind the German front were destroyed or "weakened": the hope being that this would help channel the advancing Soviet forces into preset killing zones.  Powerful tank and panzergrenadier reserves were concealed from prying Soviet eyes in the hinterlands of the Baltic nations.  In this area, the Germans were relatively secure from Partisan operations: most Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians hated the Germans, but they hated the Russians even more and thus were not inclined to take part in operations that were seen further south in White Russia and in the Ukraine.  The Germans were ready for their backhand blow.  The only question remained: would the western allies attack prior to BAGRATION?
INVASION!
Their answer came on 6 June 1944.  On the first day of that month, the opening line of Verlane's poem was broadcast by the BBC.  As a result, all leave in France was cancelled.  In order to not tip their hand that they realised the invasion was coming, the reason for the cancellation of leave was for an upcoming exercise to take place on 15 June.  As well, rolling stock was "heading east" for upcoming operations in Russia.  Though rolling stock was indeed "heading east" in anticipation for the countermoves to BAGRATION, no exercise, or Kriegspiel was planned for June
At 0001 hours on 6 June, the second line of Verlane's poem was broadcast.  Immediately all forces in France and Belgium went to full alert status.  The conditions were ripe for invasion: though the weather was spotty at best, there was a late moon and ideal tide conditions for an invasion.  Soon after midnight, intense allied bombings centred roughly on Caen, followed by reports of parachute landings all across Normandy confirmed the suspicions of many.  Panzer Lehr, 21st Panzer Division and the 12th SS "Hitlerjugend" were ordered forward to just behind the coast, centred on Caen.  Though dead for over six months, Hitler was still, even in death, a powerful figure in Germany.  Now that he couldn't interfere with operations from the grave, his name was often used in vain to rally the German soldiers and Germany itself. 
All throughout the night, Germans and Allied paratroopers battled in a confused set of pitched battles as the last quarter of the moon rose over Europe.  Key bridges were seized in the British sector, and in the US sector, Ste Mere Eglise was one of the first French cities to be liberated from the Germans.
Three hours prior to first light, German coastal radar picked up a massive force approaching the coast off Normandy.  Most were centred on the Caen sector, with a second large "blip" a bit farther west.  Hurried intelligence assessments put the allied landing into two roughly equal halves: one near Caen and one near Ste Mere Eglise.  As things turned out, they weren't far off.
Though hampered by the Parachute landings, the 12th SS and 21st Panzer made their way to Caen prior to first light.  Due to the sheer size of the forces, the low light conditions and the rubble in the streets, both forces had to make their way around the city in order to have a clear path to the coast.  21st Panzer took the eastern side, with their centre for advancing being Cabourg.  12th SS took the western side, with their centre of advance being Lion sur Mer.  The divisional boundary was set as the Orne river.  As it turned out, 21st Panzer would miss the beaches, while 12th SS would hit squre into Sword beach, as it was called by the Allies.
At first light, the landings started.  At Utah beach, the opposition facing the allies was less than spectacular.  Though suffering some 66 fatalities at sea, these were largely due to mishaps than enemy action.  On the beaches, remarkably accurate allied bombing and naval gunnery silenced most opposition.  As a result, the US forces landing here were able to link up with Airborne forces at Ste Mere Eglise by nightfall.
At Omaha, the US forces were virtually wiped out at the beach.   It took several small acts of courage, but by 1500, the US forces were able to clear the beaches and establish enough of a beachhead to allow follow on forces to begin landing.  Casualties were severe in the first waves, but by the end of the day, the forces were ashore and more were coming in.
The British and Canadian beaches of Gold and Juno suffered moderate casualties in their first waves, but by 1000 they were able to declare the beaches "secure" and were fighting their way inland against mounting opposition.  The Canadians drove for the Carpiquet airfield, but were unable to reach it, due to mounting pressure and concerns to their left flank: Sword beach.
The British never had a chance as Sword.  Though their first few waves made it ashore with relatively light casualties and though they quickly linked up with their airborne forces, the sounds of tanks could soon be heard coming from the south.
By 1000, without having properly established their positions, the first tanks of the 12th SS began to attack into Quistreham.  By 1130, the town was cleared of all allied forces and soon the Panthers and Mark IVs were firing directly onto the landing beaches.  Using the coastal buildings for cover, the young fanatics of the 12th SS were able to avoid most allied efforts to destroy them from the air.  By the end of the day, SWORD was abandoned, and the Allied invasion beaches now went from Ste Mere Eglise in the west to St Aubin sur Mer in the East.  The Canadian division at St Aubin sur Mer stopped their advance and deployed in a defensive position to cover the flank of the beaches.  6th Para was now surrounded and was fighting off the attacks of two panzer divisions.
Over the month that followed, the US forces were able to drive to the Atlantic coast, but at great cost.  The German forces defended with infantry heavy forces and manoeuvred their heavy forces mostly at night, attacking near first light in almost every case.  Though far from "destroyed on the beaches", the Allies were quickly losing the race to reinforce the Normandy front.  Events would soon tip the scales in their favour, if ever so slightly.
 
Interesting... who do you see as replacing Hitler?  I dont mean as per the party org chart but after the scuffle that would be bound to ensue.  That would have a tremendous impact on future operations...
 
GreyMatter said:
Interesting... who do you see as replacing Hitler?  I dont mean as per the party org chart but after the scuffle that would be bound to ensue.  That would have a tremendous impact on future operations...
In a previous post, I had Goering going in, but he centres mostly on "Five year plans" and "national socialism" as opposed to the conduct of operations (except for air operations).  As well, he is fed a steady diet of information, misinformation and heroin to keep him "under wraps".  In essence, the army has staged a coup so quiet that nobody actually realises it.  The SS and other nazi organisations keep functioning with the mistaken belief that they actually run things.  The Waffen SS, closer to the Wehrmacht in philosophy than with Nazism, go along with the army coup. 
Militarily, von Manstein is running things as the "Berlin" level.

Not being a politico, I'm trying to avoid "all that mess", but this is my take on things.  In short, the army is running things, though nobody seems to realise it yet.
 
HitorMiss said:
Where is Rommel in all this or did I miss it?
Rommel is in Normandy (as he was in Our Time Line: "OTL"), but he didn't go home "on leave" as what really happened (his real reason to head home to was talk to Hitler directly, as was the perogative of any Field Marshall)

von Manstien, Guderian et al are running "the show" at upper levels, but Rommel was a driving force for the defensive preparations, which are meeting mixed results, though with better results (for them) than as occured in OTL.

 
FIRE IN THE EAST
22 June 1944, the third anniversary of the opening of the Great Patriotic War was chosen by Stalin himself for the date for BAGRATION to open.  Reasoning that German eyes were focussed on France, Stalin wanted to wait for two weeks prior to launching "his" offensive.  He calculated that two weeks would give enough time to the Germans to let them think that there would be no offensive this summer.  He was wrong.
At 0200 hours on 22 June, the bombardment began.  It was unlike any other suffered by the Germans thus far in the war.  Front lines were reduced to dust and massive holes began to appear in the lines.  At division level and below, a sense of panic began to creep in as reports flooded in of the sounds of impending attack: tank engines revving up in the lines opposite their own.  Contact was lost with battalion after battalion, as the Red Army's infantry was successful in cutting off land line communications.  At dawn the Red Air Force joined in the attack, striking deeper targets and providing battle damage assessments to the artillery.  Their attack is not without heavy loss, however, as the Luftwaffe is able to intercept many of the attacking waves.  By noon, the Red Air Force has pretty well shot its bolt and with very few exceptions, had no further effect on the opening stages of the battle.
By 1500, under a cloud of dust, smoke and fire, the tanks of the Red Army moved forward to exploit the gains of 10 hours of infantry combat.  By last light, some formations have broken through to a depth of 20 miles, though in most places the gains are more modest.  Still, the majority of the German front line is broken and into the gap pour the tanks of three entire tank armies.
The Germans were ready for the onslaught, and all things being equal, fully expected the results of the opening rounds.  Their only problem was to restrain the panzers from launching their attacks too soon.  The staffs all calculated that they needed to see the echelons of the attacking armies moving forward before they could strike back.  In one case, a division commander could no longer bear to hear the calls for help going unanswered.  He sent forward a tank regiment in order to make contact with the beleaguered Landsers at the front.  They linked up by 1800, but soon found themselves surrounded.  In the end, they were destroyed to a machine, the divisional commander replaced and the division reverted to "reserve" status for replacements.  In the end, however, this wayward attack helped the Russians believe that they were making greater gains than they actually were.  They miscalculated and thought that the Germans were in desparate shape, throwing into the breach all that they had left.  Unbeknownst to them, two powerful Panzer corps stood ready to allow the Russians to pass by, and then to cut it off as the advancing Tanks would then run headlong into a PAK front from which they could not escape.
Unlike in the West, the Germans were able to read the Soviets like an open book.  Much as in a staff exercise, the Germans were able to calculate their timings for attack, and the Soviets unwittingly complied with virtually every German course of action.  Although they didn't know it, the Soviets were heading closer to disaster with every mile moved westward.
30 June 1944 was the blackest day in Soviet War History.  Two previously undetected Panzer Corps, backed by two infantry corps, attacked into the flanks of their advancing armies.  Within a day, 3 tank armies, representing some 90% of the Soviet Tank force, along with two guards armies, were cut off.  They had just suffered massive losses after running headlong into what was essentially an army sized kill zone east of Pskov.  Powerful anti tank forces (PAKs) blunted all attacks forward.  Luftwaffe FW-190s struck at the depths of the columns, reducing ammo and fuel trains to burning piles.  There was no hope for survival, and the Germans once again demonstrated their mastery at mobile warfare. 
SITUATION IN THE WEST
Due to BAGRATION, however, the Germans were forced to allocate some forces to the East that were previously scheduled to go to France to fight off the invasion, now heading into its second month.  The Western Allies, under constant pressure, were fighting for their virtual lives on the coast, instead of running roughshod across Europe, straight into Berlin as was originally hoped.  Though the US forces were able to liberate most of the Cherbourg Peninsula, the port itself remained in German hands.  Even so, they had sabotaged it to the point that it would take upwards of a week to clear it for use.  British and Canadian forces, on the other hand, were still trying to make their way into Caen.  Though they had effectively destroyed the 12th SS Panzer in a month's continuous fighting, the 21st Panzer and Panzer Lehr, now reinforced by 2nd SS and other heavy formations, were starting to put the squeeze on the eastern beachheads.  Plans for a second "Dunkirk" were readied in London


More to come!

 
Hmmm... so you dont see Himmler taking over?  Or is Himmler already dead in your scenario?

Then what about Heydrich?  In your world, (haha!) did Heydrich survive the assassination attempt of 1942 or is he dead?

If either or both of these two are still alive, I dont see a successful army takeover as being able to occur.
 
GreyMatter said:
Hmmm... so you dont see Himmler taking over?  Or is Himmler already dead in your scenario?

Then what about Heydrich?  In your world, (haha!) did Heydrich survivie or is he dead?

If either or both of these two are still alive, I dont see a successful army takeover as being able to occur.
My "split" from reality into fantasy occured in 1943: after Stalingrad but before Kursk.  Heydrich is already dead, and I never thought of Himmler.  Still, he is perhaps fed a "pablum" by the Army that he has to concentrate on the occupied territories in the east vice running the show in Germany.  Though the SS was powerful, the Army was much more powerful, and the SS would lose any civil "war" if it would have showed down versus the army.  As well, the Waffen-SS were pretty well without exception "SS" in name only.  In fact, any foreign units that fought "for germany" were almost exclusively brought under the "SS" banner for a pan-european force "to fight bolshevism".  (Most foreign SS units fought in Russia, with some exceptions, of course)
 
I would disagree about Himmler's ability to remain in power, mostly due to his control (through the SS) over conventional police, security forces, and intelligence departments.  In the past, control of these types of security organs tends to have much more power even when outnumbered by military forces (see the KBG vs Red Army for a comparison).

However, that distracts from your story.  Carry on, Im also interested in how you see history occuring...
 
GreyMatter said:
I would disagree about Himmler's ability to remain in power, mostly due to his control (through the SS) over conventional police, security forces, and intelligence departments.  In the past, control of these types of security organs tends to have much more power even when outnumbered by military forces (see the KBG vs Red Army for a comparison).
Maybe the army has "uncompromising photos" of Himmler?  That or Alien Space Bats help.  In any event, I guess I could say that Himmler et al believe that they are running things, and that running the army and military operations is "beneath them".  Stuff like production of widgets, Schwerpunkts and the like aren't becoming of them.  The path of the Aryan Nation, the glory of Germany: THAT is the stuff for them to worry about!
GreyMatter said:
However, that distracts from your story.  Carry on, Im also interested in how you see history occuring...
Will do, but you'll have to wait until tomorrow ;)

 
But I don't wanna wait  :crybaby:

I am curious about Operations on the Italian front as that would be putting pressure on the German Army from the South splitting thier focus into 3 distinct areas.
 
Err, one quick question, Herr Hauptmann.... Where are all these Germans coming from?  You've got them covering virtually the entire circumference of Europe.  One more, where is the limitless supply of steel and other raw materials coming from?  Do carry on though, a right rivetin' read, this is.
 
Hedgehog18 said:
Write a book on this because i am actually waiting for your next post lol

This is a great outline for a book, at some characters, personnel stories and sex, (alway need the sex to sell a story) you got a book.  You'll give Turtledove a run for his money....and you won't need the ginger addicted aliens!  (I can't believe I read that whole series)

Always, I am enjoying this thread. Thanks
 
Well he’s already got Goering in there for the sex.  :o :o

Kat I would say that this alternate history is not too far off the real thing and therefore the numbers both manpower and natural resources would be consistent with what they were in our world. Sweden was supplying iron ore to Germany almost until he end IIRC.

As for troops, a large portion of the forces on the Ost front were not German, The Romanian and Hungarian Armies were rather large, italy had a corps there and Spain A Division as did Slovenia. Add in the Ost troops, turncoat Ukrainian and Cossack formations and foreign volunteers (both Heer and Waffen SS) and you should be goods to go.
 
I won't disagree, but press ganged troops are about as effective as a cheap tent in a high wind, and all the good Captain has described are German formations.  I'm just pickin' nits, it's good stuff.
 
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