"What if??" A thread for people who like to speculate

[time expired]

History is full of "what ifs" a couple of my favorites are,what if the British
had lost on the Plains of Abraham,what if the Brits. had come into the
US civil war on the side of the Confedracy.But the one I would like to kick
the thread off with is,what if Churchill had made a deal with Hitler in
1940,and decided that there enough Brit. Commonwealth gravesites in
France,and if Hitler kept his hands off British interests and possession's
he could carry on in Europe.Any fellow speculators.
                                          Regards

 

[mover1]

Mel Gibson would be happy.  ;D

 

[Old Sweat]

Last Monday I sat beside an American historian at a luncheon. His "thing" is the French and Indian Wars. We spent a fair amount of time "what ifing" about the face of the world if the British had traded Quebec back to France, taking Louisiana and the Mississippi Valley in exchange. For starters, with a potentially hostile Quebec on the border and no Quebec Act to constrain westwards expansion, there would not have been a War of Independence. The growth of Quebec would have been limited by Rupert's Land to its north-west, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to the east and who knows how many colonies to the south and south west. After that, it's anybody's guess. 

 

[Danjanou]

Ah one of my personal favourite topic, I admit I’m a sucker for alternate history books
(Turtledove SM Stirling etc.) .

Good potential thread topic here, quick mod hat on for a second to keep it reasonably civil, ok hat off.

Old Sweat I’ve also studied the century of conflict a bit and concur. There would have been no American Revolution had the French not been defeated in North America. The possibilities of this are endless, another century of border war between an increasingly isolated New France and an ever expanding British North America. Would the events in North America change those in Europe, no French Revolution? No Napoleon?

How long before the British and Spanish clashed in the south west? Would the British Colonies eventually evolve into a Dominion as happened here? How would the British have dealt with the Indians, would we have seen an Indian Confederacy rise into a separate nation/power block on the continent perhaps acting as a buffer between British, French and Spanish possessions?

 

[Danjanou]

Time Expired. I think many events in the first year of the ar may have gone more or less similar, with the Germans overrunning Poland and then the low countries and France. Ten British Divisions and limited airpower in France would not have made too much of a difference.

I wonder if Germany would have bothered with the Norway campaign, preferring to keep them benevolently neutral? I also wonder re an incursion into the Balkans in 1941. I think this still would have happened to strengthen lines of communications to Germany’s main allies there Rumania and Hungary. and to provide another jumping off point for Barbarossa. That incidentally would have happened earlier and probably been more successful. I doubt even all the Wehrmact could have bested the Soviets but perhaps pushed them back to the Urals.

Some interesting points. First if/when France fell and a Vichy Government came to power, would the Germans have got the French fleet, or would the British have violated their “neutrality” and attempted to sink it as they did at Oran and Dakar in 1940. Nine battleship, four of them modern, with two more building, a carrier and 20 odd cruisers and a total fleet of 240 odd ships would have given Hitler an instant Blue Water navy. Even if Britain remained neutral in 1939-40, they must have known eventually they’d have to fight perhaps in 1943-44, and they are a maritime nation.

Second Italy. They would still have entered the war  and stabbed France in the back and probably later invaded the Balkans as happened. But would the Italian-British clashes in Libya and Ethiopia/Somaliland in 1940-41 have happened? Possibly a situation similar to Japan and the Soviets would have occurred, with England and Italy at war but England still remaining neutral vis a vis Germany.

Finally move forward a year or two. What would have happened in the Pacific? Perhaps a separate unconnected conflict between the US and Japan?

 

[time expired]

Danjanou,I think if this agreement had taken place after the Battle of Britain
Hitler would have welcomed a arrangement with Britain.I am also sure that
Churchill would have realised that it would have come to a confrontation
and could have prepared the military much better than it was prepared in
1939.If the Japanese had still attacked the US, Britain could have offered
to assist them and hammered out  a very advantageous treaty for this help.
The French fleet is an interesting point I had not given that much thought
but I think that the Germans may have stayed out of North Africa and not
risked the agreement with Churchill and would have been able to convinced
the Italians to go along, by sharing France with them.Moscow would have
probably fallen but I think the Russians would have fought on and kept the
Germans busy for a few more years.
                                              Regards
.

 

[Old Sweat]

For the British to have signed a truce with the Germans in 1940 (or if they had remained neutral), someone other than Churchill would have had to have been the Prime Minister. In fact there was a power struggle in late May within the British government over whether they should reach an agreement with Hitler or continue to fight. Churchill prevailed, and the rest, as they say, is history.

An interesting bit of speculation is what would have happened if Italy had remained neutral. For starters, the Balkans campaign would not have taken place in the Spring of 1941, which meant the invasion of the USSR could have started a few weeks earlier. A longer campaign season might have made a difference on the Eastern Front in that first year.

A neutral English-speaking world in 1941 could have led to all sorts of odd developments, including Japan turning north instead of into the South Seas to stab a tottering Soviet Union in the back.

 

[vonGarvin]

Oh joy!  I love "what ifs!"
OK, here's my "what if":
February, 1943.  Tunisia and Stalingrad are now bitter memories for the Germans.  Seeing the Fuehrer's inept handling of the two active fronts, frustrated with events all round (less von Manstein's clever handling of the mobile defensive in southern Russia), Hitler is assassinated later that year.
Following a visit to the front in Spring 1943, Hitler's Ju-52, complete with fighter escort, is heading back to Berlin.  On board, known only to a few, are some pressure activated bombs, hidden in Cognac bottles.  The planes encounter a storm front, and ready to go "under" the storm to avoid some heavy clouds.  Just as the planes are about to go lower, the pilot notes a clear patch a bit farther south.  He reckons that there is a good tail wind there, making the long flight that much shorter.  He announces the change to the fighter pilots and throttles up to gain altitude.  As the aircraft climbs, he suddenly hears a lound explosion from within the plane.  He is losing control of the aircraft as it begins to lose altitude.  He sends out his SOS, announcing that his engine has caught fire and exploded.  The Fuehrer is quickly roused from his sleep and his aides begin to strap a parachute to him.  The plane is bucking and  yawing so much that they are not successful.  The planed explodes in a firey ball in the Pripjet marshes.  All aboard are killed instantly.
There is chaos in Berlin as the news reaches every headquarters.  von Manstein, flush with victory at Kharkov, is recalled to Berlin and due to his being one of the few Field Marshalls with a perfect record, is appointed to the OKW.  
The politicos at the high end of the Nazi Food Chain begin to posture for position.  In the end, a nervous (and drug addicted) Hermann Goering is nominated Fuehrer.  He instantly begins to meddle in the military matters of the conduct of the war, but due to some clever background manoeuvring (and some spiking of his heroin cocktails), "Dicker Hermann" begins to slip only into the realm of "Grand Strategy" and "International Politics".  Speer takes over manufacturing as von Manstein, Guderian et al consider the future of the war, less half a million fine young soldiers now permanently struck off the order of battle.
After careful consideration, they make some very key decisions:
First, due to careful examination of events over the previous year, they decide that ENIGMA is somehow compromised.  ENIGMA II is prepared for use.  In the meantime, transmissions are sent using veiled speech, the U Boats are recalled with "fixed" orders awaiting the issuing of ENIGMA II.  As well, "fake" ENIGMA transmissions and directives are sent, and the Western Allies are none the wiser.
Next, the main effort will continue to be the war in the east.  von Manstein's plan for a "Back hand blow" is accepted and put into place for the upcoming summer.  Though the German forces remain quite powerful, they lack sufficient strength to bash through the Russian defenses.  Through a set of strategems, the Russians are lead to believe that a massive offensive will be mounted around Kursk.
The secondary effort is set at the blunting of the Anglo/American air offensive.  Here Speer initiates development and production for "Wasserfall", a radar guided anti aircraft rocket.  First use is anticipated for October, 1943.  The Germans just hope that it isn't too late by then.
The next priority is the Atlantic Wall.  Rommel is dispatched to "do his thing" and starts by strengthening the wall and gets his wish for panzer and panzergrenadier units to be pushed forward in order to meet the invasion, expected for May 1944 at the earliest, at the beaches.
The "offensive" at Kursk kicks off on 5 July 1943.  The Russians commit to their counteroffensive, and learn only on 7 July that the "offensive" was nothing more than a demonstration.  Their forces make great headway and more and more units are thrown into the breach by Stalin, including the strategic reserve, the 5th Guards Tank Army.  After an advance of 200 km in some areas, and in spite of warnings from the STAVKA that the German offensive was nothing but a ruse, Stalin "dismisses" the naysayers and installs a batch of sycophants in their place.  He announces that the Red Army has achieved mastery over the Wehrmacht, even in the summer months.
On 10 July, the same day that Anglo-American forces invade Sicily, the Germans launch their real offensive in the east. Gone are the lofty goals of oil fields in Asia; their goal now is the destruction of the Red Army.  By 12 July, they have sealed the trap and some five complete armies are encircled.  There are no untrapped forces left who can assist in a break out, even though Stalin would have none of that.  Attempts to "link up" are foiled by layers of German AT defences as von Manstein expertly husbands the forces available.
In Sicily, the Anglo American forces are able to advance, albeit slowly in the face of a skillful delaying action: trading infantry space for time.
By the end of August, 1943, the Russian Forces trapped in the so-called "Poltava" pocket begin to show signs that they are soon to be destroyed.  After yet another failed breakout attempt, the pocket begins to contract.  The Germans tighten the noose, and begin to reduce it with patience, employing the large siege artillery used the year before at Sevestapol.  Elsewhere, the front is shortened and divisions are freed up for the intended defense of Italy.
On 1 September 1943, Pravda issues an announcement that "Army Group Poltava" has ceased to exist, destroyed due to traitorous conduct by key members of the STAVKA.  Of the 'convicted', Zhukov is the most important one to be named.  He and the others are hanged in Red Square, and a massive stalement akin to the front in World War One settles across Russia.  Germany has its breathing space: for now.

......

To be continued.

 

[Mike Baker]

Very good Garvin! Hmm, yeah mine is a little less 'strategic' but just as important. What if the Americans never had a force in Iceland to steer of a German invasion, and the Germans consequently invade Iceland and then make their way to Greenland an are ready to make a move into North America as a whole.

 

[Danjanou]

Been reading too much Tom Clancy there Mike. German amphibious capabilities were no where good enough for something that large. Take a look at the problems they had in Norway and Crete. There’s also that little thiong called the Home Fleet at Scapa Flow.

The trick with this is to stay fairly close to reality. One small event can have disastrous consequences. Turtledove did that with his How Few Remain the fist book in the series that has the USA and CSA as separate and warring nations in North America. In that book the CSA wins the ACW because a set of Confederate plans that in real life were lost and found by Union troops aren’t.

Time Expired. I’m now involved in a naval war gaming campaign with my local grognard group and am playing the French fleet. As such I’ve been doing a lot of reading and research on La Marine. It was damn powerful fleet that because of a few accidents of history was never utilized.

 

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, but Dan, what if their amphibious capabilities we much better then they were in the real history??? 

 

[vonGarvin]

Yeah, but Dan, what if their amphibious capabilities we much better then they were in the real history??? 

That would involve an intervention by Alien Space Bats.  In my scenario, I talk of two things that nearly happened.  First the attempted "Attentat" on Hitler.  In reality, that plane didn't climb to full altitude due to weather.  Second, "Wasserfall" was real, but not developed due to Hitler's disdain on defensive weapons. 
In reality, von Manstein wanted the summer of 1943 to be one of a backhand blow.  If you look at what I did (one key event with a series of butterfly effects, thrown in with an Alien Space Bat intervention of the ENIGMA/ULTRA compromise), it's not that far off.  Sicily still happens as in our time line (OTL), but things will change in the Autumn of 1943 as more German Divisions become availabe for use in Italy and France. 

In other words, more to come!

 

[warspite]

Mike it has to be remembered that hitler was never really interested in conquering westwards ( not say it wouldn't have hapened eventually). He followed what he wrote in his book pretty closely and what he wrote was that he wanted to conquer russia up to the ural mountains....

Now for my what ifs  ;D
ww2-
-What if operation barbossa had been launched on time and not delayed a month, what if the divisions ahdn't been given constantly changing objecvives and instead focussed on taking moscow first. If this had happened moscow would probably fallen, and since the country was tied to moscow it could therefore be rolled up and easily defeated. Thus freeing up troops and resources to fight the allies on the western front.....
-What if Hitler had unleashed his submarines from day one of the war. After all Churchill did say that they were the only thing that worried him during the war....
-What if hitlers car had not gotten a flat tire and the bombing run missed him by 15 minutes....
-What if Hitler had been shot in world war one (remember reading an article on a soldier he realized later that he had had him in his sights in ww2, said soldier had recieved a medal for his bravery that day)
-What if the few escort carriers and destroyers had not gone up against a japenese force consisting of heavy cruisers and battleships and battle against them till the japenese turned back. Thus saving the us landing forces in the philipines( I believe these were the islands) from japenese naval bombarment.... ( note: unit won a presidential citation for its actions. The The destroyers charged the enemy fleets and torpedoed them, while the excort carriers aircraft did what they could to hurt the enemy)

And on to a different era....
-What if napoleon had joined the royal navy as a youth ( as was hs first choice)
-What if Nelson had not attacked at the nile when conventional stategy dictated not to. The french army would have had a free hand in eygpt, not been crippled like it was.
-What if napoleon had not been allowed to escape. The war wouldn't have had that brief flair up, there wouldn't have been another peace conference. Brittians forign minister wouldn't have gotten to put his plan of a balance of power and Brittian as the worlds policeman. As a purely imperial power Brittian could have justified strangling euroupe into submission with its navy....
-What if Lord Cochrane had managed to pick up Napoleon and install him as emperor of chile.  This one is a garenteed fact. Cochrane had a major part in chilean independence, weather prevented him from picking up napoleon on his way to chile and napoleon died before he could pick him up after chile was liberated. Despite fighting with a sucsess record short of only Nelson Cochrane was in disfavour with the admiralty for his actions hence his taking up a job offer with chile, and despite fighting against napoleon he admired him.

And back a little further in time....
-What if Cromwell had not seized power in england. It was during this time that the royal navy was provided with a permament financial base and was reformed in terms of effeciency morale and organizations, giving it the edge over all other navies in europe.....

-And although I'm running out of time lets go back a little further yet....
What if rome had remained a republic and continued its expansion over europue and the rest of the world, rather than becoming increasingly dependent on the emporer's direct orders. This killed the ability of local govenors to deal with crisis and rebellion, and killed expansion as the emperor could not trustanyone to command armies for conquest lest they get enough glory to challenge him, and since he couldn't lead the armies ( leaving rome open to an usurper) expansion ceased and from this the empire decayed...

and just cause I'm on a roll lets go to the us civil war....
-What if at gettysburg the confederacy had managed to gain the high ground and won the battle.... leaving them free to march on washington. They were held off by a single company wich used superior tatics to hold off and then out of amuntion rout the enemy...
-What if brittin had done more than just build the confederacy ships, wat if they had declared war...

What if indeed... ( dramatic music)
Man I wished I had more timt to ramble....
(Excuse me if I have any minor errors in facts goin from memory)

 

[mover1]

Technology would be 20-30 years behind. All the technological marvels from the cold war and those started in WW2 wouldn't have been invented.

Germany and Europes indutrial complex wouldn't have been bombed to ruins, meaning no happy 50's for the Americans. Seeing as the only reason everything was made in America is because there was no competition left in the world post 45.

No Baby Boom, No Suez Canal, No Veitnam, no Space Program.
No 72 Summit Series, No Cold War, No Germany Stories.

No UN

 

[Staff Weenie]

Capt Sensible - you'd also have to 'wish away' the fact that OKW or indeed Hitler's personal staff was heavily compromised. Though I'm not sure who 'Wether' was (possibly Bormann), this agent was passing on details and German plans to the Soviets, reputedly before German field commanders had them.....

Germany's own spies were also all (completely IIRC) compromised....

Same with the Japanese - once Purple was cracked, it went downhill from there.

 

[CougarKing]

I only skimmed this thread...but have any of you also thought about "what if" Hitler had pulled off Operation Sealion in 1940 after a different outcome in the Battle of Britain?

Or if the Imperial Japanese Navy had won the Battle of Midway and eventually invaded Hawaii and the US mainland? This last scenario is covered in at least one English alternate history novel and one alt. history novel in Japanese- of course Danjanou already mentioned Harry Turtledove- I wonder if he read the "Days of Infamy" series?

 

[Danjanou]

Yeah I read them.

I find Turtledove rather hit and miss. When he's good he's good when he's off he's as they say in the old country "right the frig outta der bye." case in point ginger addicted alien lizards showing uopmon Earth in 1941 :

The two part Pearl Harbour series was ok. Basically he transposed what happened in the Philipinnes to Hawaii, Death March, internment of civillians etc. Having the US Carriers taken out one at a time was quite plausible. In the end history repeats itself but the US is 2-3 years behind schedule and trying to retake Honululu in 1943. That would suggest they won't get to Guam until 1945-46 and Iwo Jima etc until 1948-49. Also he alludes to the fact that the US is so concerned about the Pacific that basically they are offering only minimal support in Africa and Europe, no Torch, no 8th Air force bombing Germany, no Lend Lease.

The surfer dude character was too much though  8)

 

[CougarKing]

What about the "Fox on the Rhine" series?

 

[Danjanou]

What about the "Fox on the Rhine" series?

To be honest I haven't read them ....yet. A friend has and highly recommnds them.

 

[a_majoor]

There is a book on "What ifs" (can't remember the title) which ends with a real howler (Al Gore as president in the moments after 9/11 musing on a speech where he tells the Islamic world that the 9/11 attacks were inappropriate), but also looks at what would have happened if Lord Hamilton had become Prime Minister instead of Churchill (which apparently was very close to happening).

Hitler would have had a free hand in the East, neutral Britain would eventually find itself facing a hostile continent across the channel (and locked out of these markets; the same problem they faced during the Napoleonic wars) and things would have gone downhill from there. America was concerned about the Pacific, and might well have concentrated their efforts on Imperial Japan.