Venezuela Superthread- Merged

[a_majoor]

Now now,

You wouln't want Trump and his Fascist down there, as I am sure it would flush out the Old men from the Reich!

The biggest American fan of Fascism was actually FDR; much of the "New Deal" was explicitly patterned after the Italian Fascist Corporate State.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power."

Benito Mussolini

Since the New Deal essentially prevented the markets from clearing and prolonged the Great Depression by as much as seven years, it is good that you are aware that Fascism isn't going to help Venezuela. OTOH, since what is currently going on in there is something like Fascism on steroids, maybe dialling things back to just plain "Fascism" would be an improvement. That is the model that Argentina went through under the Perons.

It will take a long time to fix the damage that was done to a once beautiful and thriving nation.

 

[jollyjacktar]

It will take a long time to fix the damage that was done to a once beautiful and thriving nation.

By rabid lefties, you forgot to add.

 

[a_majoor]

The food supply is now under control of the army. The conditions to carry out a Holodomor on the opposition is now in place.

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/07/why-venezuela-putting-its-food-supply-under-military-control-is-so-chilling

WHY VENEZUELA PUTTING ITS FOOD SUPPLY UNDER MILITARY CONTROL IS SO CHILLING
By: Benjamin Weingarten | July 13, 2016

In the state of nature, force triumphs over all else. If societal progress is measured by movement towards voluntary individualism and away from coercion at the hands of strongmen, then by all accounts Venezuela is regressing into this decivilized state.

That is the takeaway given the news breaking this week that Venezuelan potentate President Nicolás Maduro is putting the country’s military in charge of its food supply.

Not even the most doe-eyed Bernie Sanders supporter could think it a wise or comforting decision to put the supply over a nation’s food in the hands of a defense minister.

As the Wall Street Journal details, “Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino…will be in charge of transporting and distributing basic products, controlling prices and stimulating production, according to a decree published Tuesday in the official gazette.”

If you think that Solyndra was an epic government-backed failure, it will look like child’s play compared to the scale of the catastrophe sure to take place now that Venezuela’s government is putting the very sustenance of the nation under the central planning of a military leader.

The symbolic value of such an act cannot be overstated. When the literal lifeblood of a nation is put in the hands of a police force, you know that said nation is on the brink of total collapse, leading to more crippling state control as disorder devolves into all-out chaos. Not even the most doe-eyed Bernie Sanders supporter could think it a wise or comforting decision to put the supply over a nation’s food in the hands of a defense minister. It is as irrational a decision as it is a chilling one.

It can only be called rational from Maduro’s perspective insofar as control over the food supply is a proxy for total control over the people in a struggle to retain power.

Naturally, it represents the exact opposite of what a nation that wishes to avoid starvation, let alone prosper, ought to be doing. It is the Venezuelan government’s widespread economic intervention, its abrogation of contractual and property rights and its debauching of its currency that has ruined any semblance of a functioning marketplace. Putting the food supply under military control is dumping kerosene on the fire.

The surest path out of the socialist death spiral must involve re-empowering the citizens by creating the conditions necessary for buyers and sellers to communicate through a healthy and functioning price mechanism. Citizens must determine the quantity, quality and price at which goods and services are to be produced, consumed and traded. Government does not have the ability nor the moral right to do so.

However jarring the denationalization of Venezuelan industry might be, such pains will pale in comparison to the starvation and bloodshed that the Chavez-Maduro regime’s tyrannical central planning will result in.

Meanwhile, man’s former last best hope on Earth is apparently MIA. As Senator Ted Cruz’s, R-Texas (A, 97%) national security advisor Dr. Victoria Coates noted just yesterday at Conservative Review:

The State Department issued a statement last week that acknowledged Venezuela’s “extremely difficult” past year, but urged “leaders of all branches of the government to engage in the national dialogue required to effectively address your country’s problems.”

In other words, rather than issuing a call for solidarity with the people of Venezuela as they try to regain their dignity, liberty and rights, our Department of State is proposing throwing a life line to a dying socialist regime that is the avowed enemy of the United States.

Unfortunately this statement is not a one-off; it is part of a deliberate policy initiated more than a year ago that is pursuing rapprochement with the Maduro regime rather than developing a plan to support his opposition.

And while we throw the Venezuelan people to the wolves by showing cowardice and complicity in not strongly opposing the Maduro regime, America maddeningly continues to follow in its footsteps. In spite of the self-evident disaster of Venezuelan state economic intervention, and the violent controls that its central planners are putting into place as their plans go haywire, the Democratic Party is now advocating again for the so-called “public option” on healthcare – that is, socialized medicine.

Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association, in an article dated July 11, President Obama urges Congress to revisit a public plan option “to compete alongside private insurers in areas of the country where competition is limited.” Who knew that government-created competition was the answer to what ails us?

Examples abound around the world of the great man-caused disaster that is socialism. That we continue to attempt such collectivist experiments in spite of the abundant horrifying evidence defines insanity. When will we learn the lesson that freedom works?

- See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/07/why-venezuela-putting-its-food-supply-under-military-control-is-so-chilling#sthash.Ocrby2mj.dpuf

 

[a_majoor]

It is amazing the amount of punishment people can take, I would have expected riots and bloody revolution long before now:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/venezuelas-inflation-is-set-to-top-1600-next-year-2016-07-18-81032112

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Venezuela’s inflation is set to top 1,600% next year
Published: July 18, 2016 8:21 a.m. ET
Food shortages, weak oil prices and economic mismanagement has forced the government to declare a state of emergency

While most advanced economies struggle to lift inflation, none would want Venezuela‘s situation: Consumer-price inflation is forecast to hit 480% this year and top 1,640% in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund.

A shortage of medical supplies means infants and other sick patients are dying of treatable illnesses. Soldiers guard empty grocery store shelves. Inflation is so bad, the government has had to order bolivars by the planeload.

As Caracas extends its declared state of economic emergency, it’s no wonder many economists say the nation will soon have to ask the IMF for a bailout. It’s gotten so bad, the government this week handed over control of food stocks to the military, ceding even more power to the armed forces.

But Venezuela, whose government severed ties with the IMF nearly a decade ago under its former socialist autocratic leader, Hugo Chávez, hasn’t tried to restore relations with the world’s emergency lender.

“There has been no change in Venezuela’s relationship with the fund,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said Thursday. While the IMF has urged Caracas to reestablish a relationship, “the Venezuelan authorities have not contacted us,” he said.

 

[Lightguns]

It is amazing the amount of punishment people can take, I would have expected riots and bloody revolution long before now:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/venezuelas-inflation-is-set-to-top-1600-next-year-2016-07-18-81032112

Not if you are successful in converting the mindset, example; Cuba. 

 

[a_majoor]

More disaster for the people of Venezuela:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/07/infant-mortality-is-up-100-times-to-2.html

Infant mortality is up 100 times from 2014 to 2% of all births which in Venezuela will be about 12000 deaths on an annual basis

According to figures from Venezuela's Health ministry infant mortality was two percent of births last year, 100 times worse than 2014.

Venezuela had 617 710 live births in 2015. 2% infant mortality would be about 12000 deaths.

The deterioration of the public health sector is a major challenge for the ruling Socialist Party which ran free health projects with the help of Cuban expertise including Cuban-staffed clinics in the slums.

Medical care has been hit by the shortages of medicines, equipment and personnel. Eight out of 10 medicines are now scarce according to the main pharmacy group.

Often patients have to bring their own. Protesting doctors are demanding the government declares a national health crisis and allows foreign humanitarian aid.

“I started to see patients in the area of the operating room and in the emergency area they began to die from lack of medicines. Some 70 children died do far this year due to lack of antibiotics to treat diseases such a neonatal sepsis,” said doctor David Macineiras.

Bread is a staple of diets worldwide, a low price with a high nutritious value.

But it is one of the most affected by the shortage in Venezuela. That’s because the country is entirely dependent on the import of wheat. Bakers have reduced their output and people have to spend hours queuing in the hope of buying for their table.

The lack of raw materials and complex currency exchange system have left many companies struggling especially those that manufacture basic products.

On Saturday Kimberly-Clark closed down its operations due to the soaring consumer prices and shortages of basic goods.

“We are a company that makes nappies, paper towels, things that are basic necessities and there are approximately 5,000 to 6,000 families affected,” explained one of the company’s staff, Wilmer Gutierrez.

While most advanced economies struggle to lift inflation, none would want Venezuela‘s situation: Consumer-price inflation is forecast to hit 480% this year and top 1,640% in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Soldiers guard empty grocery store shelves. Inflation is so bad, the government has had to order bolivars by the planeload.

As Caracas extends its declared state of economic emergency, it’s no wonder many economists say the nation will soon have to ask the IMF for a bailout. It’s gotten so bad, the government this month handed over control of food stocks to the military, ceding even more power to the armed forces.

But Venezuela, whose government severed ties with the IMF nearly a decade ago under its former socialist autocratic leader, Hugo Chávez, hasn’t tried to restore relations with the world’s emergency lender.

“There has been no change in Venezuela’s relationship with the fund,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said Thursday. While the IMF has urged Caracas to reestablish a relationship, “the Venezuelan authorities have not contacted us,” he said.

China, seeking to take advantage of poor political relations that many African and Latin American nations have with the U.S. and Western-based institutions like the IMF, has been giving Venezuela and other commodity exporters cheap loans to help tide them through the commodity slump. Last year, the country supposedly secured $10 billion in cheap credit to help keep it afloat.

While those loans may keep the state budget limping along, including massive costly subsidy programs, and strengthen political ties to Beijing, they don’t require the deep policy overhauls many economists say are vital to repairing the broken economy.

From a larger perspective, Venezuela should serve as one of those horrible examples that economics and political science students should be drilled in to demonstrate the true nature of Socialism, but no doubt the same professors who would balk at being forced to stand in line for bread and toilet paper will simply continue to insist that "Venezuela did it wrong..."

The fact that China is extending credit may be a short term gain for them, but extending credit to so may potential deadbeats in Africa and South America isn't going to help China's economy in the long run.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Yep let them enjoy being a Global power for awhile

 

[a_majoor]

Because they are doing socialism wrong again, obviously......

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/07/30/venezuela-decrees-forced-labor-in-the-fields-for-citizens/

Venezuela Decrees Forced Labor in the Fields for Citizens
BY RICK MORAN JULY 30, 2016

Flanked by police in riot gear, people line up outside of a supermarket to buy regulated food in Caracas, Venezuela, Wednesday, June 1, 2016. Venezuela's opposition is pushing for a referendum on whether to recall President Nicolas Maduro amid a severe economic crisis marked by triple-digit inflation and widespread shortages of food and medicine. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

With the Venezuelan economy predicted to shrink 10% this year and an anticipated inflation rate of 700%, the government of President Nicolas Maduro has been ruling by executive decree.

The country is currently mired in a food crisis of unprecedented proportions. Severe shortages of basics like milk, eggs, and flour have driven tens of thousands of citizens across the border into Colombia searching for food. At the sight of shelves full of food, they weep.

The crisis goes beyond food shortages. CNN Money reports:

Venezuela is deep into a humanitarian crisis -- people are dying in ill-equipped hospitals and many live without basic food items. Venezuela can't pay to import goods because its government is desperately strapped for cash after years of mismanagement of its funds, heavy spending on poorly-run government programs, and lack of investment on its oil fields.

International humanitarian organizations have been mostly blocked from assisting because Maduro doesn't trust them. Instead, Maduro issued a decree recently ordering citizens to leave their jobs in the private sector to be put to work in the fields:

"Trying to tackle Venezuela's severe food shortages by forcing people to work the fields is like trying to fix a broken leg with a band aid," Erika Guevara Rosas, Americas' Director at Amnesty International, said in a statement.

President Nicolas Maduro is using his executive powers to declare a state of economic emergency. By using a decree, he can legally circumvent Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly -- the Congress -- which is staunchly against all of Maduro's actions.

According to the decree from July 22, workers would still be paid their normal salary by the government and they can't be fired from their actual job.

It is a potent sign of tough conditions in Venezuela, which is grappling with the lack of basic food items like milk, eggs and bread. People wait hours in lines outsides supermarkets to buy groceries and often only see empty shelves.

Venezuela once had a robust agricultural sector. But under its socialist regime, which began with Hugo Chavez in 1999, the oil-rich country started importing more food and invested less in agriculture. Nearly all of Venezuela's revenue from exports comes from oil.

With oil prices down to about $41 a barrel from over $100 about two years ago, Venezuela has quickly run out of cash and can't pay for its imports of food, toilet paper and other necessities. Neglected farms are now being asked to pick up the slack.

Maduro's actions are very similar to a strategy the communist Cuban government used in the 1960s when it sought to recover sugar production after it declined sharply following the U.S. embargo on Cuban goods. It forced Cubans to work on sugar farms to cultivate the island's key commodity.

 

[a_majoor]

Well, if Gerrald Butts wants a "peacekeeping" mission, we might not have to go to Africa to get one. Of course the same "intellectuals" who would disdain to stand in line for bread or toilet paper are going to lecture us on how Venezuela "Didn't do Socialism right". You'd think that with all the practice runs since 1917 someone would have figured out how to "do it right" by now:

http://nypost.com/2016/07/31/venezuela-is-on-the-brink-of-total-collapse/

Venezuela is on the brink of total collapse
By Post Editorial Board July 31, 2016 | 9:10pm

The Marxist “paradise” once worshipped by such Hollywood naifs as Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, Danny Glover and Michael Moore is now forcing its citizens to work on neglected farms.

The celebs haven’t been singing the praises of Venezuela quite as loudly as they did when Hugo Chavez led the country until his death in 2013. For good reason: Under his handpicked successor, Nicolas Maduro, things have grown far worse.

Home to the world’s worst economy, Venezuela is beset by severe food shortages, riots in the streets and hyperinflation that’s closing in on 700 percent. World oil prices have plummeted — and Venezuela relies on oil for 95 percent of its income.

Agriculture was neglected as Chavez and Maduro placed all their economic chips on crude and elected to import goods from abroad while spending on social programs that rallied the poor behind the government.

But now Venezuela has no cash to import food or other essentials. And because Chavez nationalized so much industry, it has no private sector to compensate.

So Maduro has now issued an executive decree that subjects all workers to being forced to work for 60 days (or more, “if circumstances merit”) in the fields, growing badly needed food.

Economically, the move makes no sense. Morally, it’s barely one step up from government-sanctioned slavery.

Venezuela is on the brink of total collapse. Whatever happens next won’t be pretty — and not even the country’s Hollywood fans can still sing its socialist praises.

Families have become so desperate for food, they are resorting to looting: (video at link)

 

[cupper]

Because they are doing socialism wrong again, obviously......

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/07/30/venezuela-decrees-forced-labor-in-the-fields-for-citizens/

Didn't we see this play out in Cambodia during the reign of the Khmer Rouge?

 

[a_majoor]

If they can't seize your goods or material wealth, they will seize your body instead:

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/240560

AUGUST 5, 2016
MAILBAG: From longtime Instapundit/VodkaPundit reader Max Kohnke:

This is not a joke nor even an exaggeration. I just found out that my sister in law’s other brother-in-law was arrested in Venezuela at the airport while trying to leave the country. His crime, he was an employee for a company that went out of business. Waiting for more? There isn’t any. Maduro has decreed that any business that goes out of business has committed economic treason and its employees are subject to arrest. They had already arrested numerous owners and managers but this is the first time they went after rank and file worker bees.

Socialism is about caring.

Atlas Shrugged was supposed to be a warning, not a "how to" book. Look up Directive 10-289.

 

[a_majoor]

Things continue to crumble in Venezuela. The continuing decline in oil production is obviously hitting the government's primary source of revenue, but it is not declining fast enough to force oil prices to rise. At any rate, Venesuelan heavy oil is always going to be more expensive than sweet crude (the headline about importing light oil is a bit misleading, the purpose is not to supply the nation's energy needs, but to assist in processing the heavy oil):

http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/09/oil-state-venezuela-is-buying-us-oil.html

Oil State Venezuela is buying US oil and its oil workers are starving

Venezuela's oil generates 95 percent of export revenue, will decline by about 11 percent to 2.1 million barrels a day by the end of the year, Barclays Plc estimates. The current level of a little below 2.4 million barrels a day is down 350,000 barrels from a year ago. That is nearly a million barrels below what it was in 1998 when Mr. Chávez took power.

Oil workers here say they are making less than a dollar a day because of the inflation. The price of bread alone has doubled from month to month, now about 50 cents a loaf in many places. The economy is set to contract by 10 percent by the end of the year and has already seen triple-digit inflation.

Many oil workers say they are paid so little that they barely eat and have to keep watch over one another in case they faint while high up on the rigs.

Early this year, the United States began shipping more than 50,000 barrels a day of the light crude that Venezuela needs to prepare its own oil for export, joining a handful of suppliers that have become vital to keeping the country’s oil industry afloat.

International service companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger are scaling back their operations as Venezuela’s state oil company struggles to pay its debts to them — as much as $25 billion — with a flurry of bonds and promissory notes.

Global oversupply of 1 million to 2 million barrels per day since mid-2014 has caused the worst oil price crash in a generation. Prices have languished around $45 a barrel, though the market has started to rebalance as some exporters have reduced shipments due to lower prices.

Raymond James forecasts oil prices will increase to $80 a barrel in 2017. Piper Jaffray's Simmons and Co. International raised its forecast last week, but only to $60 in 2017 and $70 in 2018. Raymond James cut its 2017 oil supply forecast by nearly 800,000 barrels per day, to about 96 million barrels. many believe drillers will put that higher revenue toward repairing their balance sheets rather than plowing it into new production. They are also predicting supply disruptions in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya.

Sept 21,2016, Brent crude futures were up 92 cents, or 2 percent at $46.80 per barrel by 1:28 p.m. ET (1728 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $1.13, or 2.6 percent, to $45.18 a barrel.

September, 2016 IEA oil market report

Global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted. For 2016, a gain of 1.3 mb/d is expected – a downgrade of 0.1 mb/d on our previous forecast due to a more pronounced 3Q16 slowdown. Momentum eases further to 1.2 mb/d in 2017 as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain.

World oil supplies fell by 0.3 mb/d in August, dragged lower by non-OPEC. At 96.9 mb/d, global oil output was 0.3 mb/d below a year ago, but near-record OPEC supply just about offset steep non-OPEC declines. Non-OPEC supply is expected to return to growth in 2017 (+380 kb/d) following an anticipated 840 kb/d decline this year.

OPEC crude production edged up to 33.47 mb/d in August - testing record rates as Middle East producers opened the taps. Kuwait and the UAE hit their highest output ever and Iraq lifted supplies. Output from Saudi Arabia held near a record, while Iran reached a post-sanctions high. Overall OPEC supply stood 930 kb/d above a year ago.

 

[a_majoor]

I sometimes wonder if we (the royal *we*) are even looking in the right direction. While we struggle to put boots on the ground in Latvia, Ukraine and Iraq, disasters are spiralling out of control to our south (Venezuela and Mexico) and in the far East (DPRK missile and nuclear adventurism, Chinese activity in the South China sea), which to my mind seem to affect Canada's National Interest far more than Ukraine or Iraq. (While there are legitimate interests there, we also have lots of allies already doing heavy lifting, perhaps we need to husband our far more limited resources....)

https://strategypage.com/on_point/2017080201046.aspx

Venezuela Slides Toward Civil War
by Austin Bay
August 2, 2017
In the early morning hours of August 1, Venezuelan secret police arrested the country's most prominent opposition political leaders, Leopoldo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma, and quickly hauled them off to prison.

Lopez is the gutsy leader of the Popular Will Party and a former mayor of Caracas. Ledezma also served as mayor of Caracas and is a long-time critic of President Nicolas Maduro and his bombastic predecessor, Hugo Chavez.

Lopez and Ledezma have been in and out of prison for the crimes of practicing free speech and opposing Venezuela's slide into dictatorship. The Venezuelan Supreme Court, now totally controlled by Maduro, justified the arrests of Lopez and Ledezma by claiming they "violated the terms of their house arrest" when they criticized Maduro's government.

Venezuelan pro-democracy activists managed to record a video of Ledezma's dark hour arrest. In the video a woman can be head screaming "They're taking Ledezma! Please neighbors! It's a dictatorship!"

The courageous woman is absolutely right. Maduro's Chavista regime is a full-fledged dictatorship -- an impoverished, corrupt and anarchic dictatorship that has ruined the once wealthy nation and led it to the brink of civil war.

In May, Maduro announced he would convene a Constituent Assembly that would usurp the power of the opposition-controlled legislature, the National Assembly. Opposition parties have controlled the National Assembly since 2015, when they won a two-thirds majority.

The Constituent Assembly is a hoax Maduro is using to mask his consolidation of power. All 545 members of the Constituent Assembly are Maduro supporters.

At least 80 percent of Venezuela's population opposes Maduro's power grab. No matter, Maduro is going Full Cuba. He controls the police forces and, at the moment, the military. In mid-July, the military announced it backed Maduro's Constituent Assembly proposal.

Senior officers loyal to Hugo Chavez, the former army paratrooper who created the so-called Bolivarian revolution, command Venezuela's politicized military.

Chavez was a lot smarter than Maduro. The charismatic Chavez could deliver a stirring speech. But Chavez is dead and Maduro is no Chavez.

The military knows its economy is an utter disaster. Last week, pictures appeared on the internet showing officers rewarding loyal soldiers with rolls of toilet paper and tubes of toothpaste.

In July 2016, national food shortages were so severe the military took charge of food distribution. In January 2017, it took control of food imports.

Maduro's military supporters benefit from this system. They have access to food. They can also demand bribes from starving citizens in exchange for food.

But there are also calls for a military to end its support of Maduro and his regime. On July 26, Lopez made one, issuing a statement inviting soldiers "to not be accomplices to the annihilation of the republic, to a constitutional fraud, to repression." Venezuela's Catholic bishops demanded that the armed forces fulfill their duty to be at the service of the people" and not "instruments of oppression."

In May, Fox News reported that the regime arrested at least 65 lower-ranking military officers and charged some of them with "instigating rebellion."

This question has surely crossed Maduro's mind: Would commanders order their troops to fire if a hundred thousand Venezuelans "swamped the palace" like Tunisians did in 2011 when they demanded dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali resign? Tunisia's military didn't fire on the people.

Venezuelans have reason to rebel. Maduro's Castroite hostility to private businesses and his government's corruption have savaged the economy. Last year, Venezuela ranked 166 out of 176 countries on Transparency International's corruption index. In December 2016, the inflation rate hit 800 percent.

Low oil prices have diminished the oil revenue Maduro uses to pay off the security forces and his loyalists and shield them from the economic horror. International sanctions could reduce his cash flow even more. Maduro has used Venezuela's chronic food shortage to systematically deprive political opponents of food. When the food crisis begins to affect the families of sergeants and privates, watch out.

 

[Altair]

I sometimes wonder if we (the royal *we*) are even looking in the right direction. While we struggle to put boots on the ground in Latvia, Ukraine and Iraq, disasters are spiralling out of control to our south (Venezuela and Mexico) and in the far East (DPRK missile and nuclear adventurism, Chinese activity in the South China sea), which to my mind seem to affect Canada's National Interest far more than Ukraine or Iraq. (While there are legitimate interests there, we also have lots of allies already doing heavy lifting, perhaps we need to husband our far more limited resources....)

https://strategypage.com/on_point/2017080201046.aspx

While I agree with the sentiment, what do you think Canada, and the CAF could do in Venezuela one our own, likely going up directly against the Venezuelan forces, and galvanizing the Venezuelan people to join together to defend their homeland for the capitalist invaders?

All I could see canada doing on it's own without instigating a war is supplies money and arms to potential opposition groups a la Syria, but that effort wouldn't require husbanding our limited resources.

 

[a_majoor]

We can set aside more resources to securing our borders against potential terrorist and criminal threats spilling out of unstable South American countries and Mexico. We can prepare for humanitarian relief missions in these areas if the situation collapses. We could potentially secure the area and set up things like the Strategic Advisory Team which we had in Afghanistan to essentially mentor and instruct any new government in how to conduct business to Western standards, We might even have to contemplate securing oil infrastructure in the case of Venezuela ITO prevent environmental disasters.

And that is just off the top of my head.

 

[Altair]

We can set aside more resources to securing our borders against potential terrorist and criminal threats spilling out of unstable South American countries and Mexico.

Our border? As in the one with the USA?

I trust the USA would be able to filter out most of what you're talking about from reaching the canadian border, and I trust the CBSA to get whatever the Americans miss. Don't see much of a CAF role there.

We can prepare for humanitarian relief missions in these areas if the situation collapses.

Reasonable, but it depends on how the situation goes down. If it turns into a civil war,  and Maduro still has control of the Army, there isn't much I can see Canada doing. Maybe set up in neighboring nations, if they would have us.

We could potentially secure the area and set up things like the Strategic Advisory Team which we had in Afghanistan to essentially mentor and instruct any new government in how to conduct business to Western standards

Again, it depends on how the situation shapes out. If Maduro goes out peacefully, sure, I can see that, if he goes out fighting I don't see that happening, if Maduro manages to hold on no way, if it's complete and total anarchy like Somalia I would say no. How many eventualities do we need to plan for?

We might even have to contemplate securing oil infrastructure in the case of Venezuela ITO prevent environmental disasters.

Also depends on how the situation on the ground shapes out.

And that is just off the top of my head.

While I agree that there could be a role for Canada and the CAF to play, I think it depends on how things on the ground play out.

Venezuela could just turn into a full fledged dictatorship with little turmoil. It could turn into a civil war. It could peacefully embrace democracy. It could violently embrace democracy. It could violently embrace dictatorship. Any of these can happen now, or ten years from now.

I just don't see what Canada can do at this point given the instability going on in Venezuela.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Having traveled a bit there, I can tell you that outside of the main highway system (decent), roads deteriorate quickly and get worse during the rainy season. You have multiple different terrain and ecosystems, including a sabana that becomes a flooded region for part of the year, rolling grasslands in the Gran Sabana, almost Alpine like in the SW, Jungle, tropical Forests, arid regions and dry coastal hills. It will be quite defensible. 

 

[a_majoor]

Continuing economic collapse in Venezuela:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/imf-sees-venezuelan-inflation-rate-rising-beyond-2-300-in-2018

IMF Says Venezuela's Inflation Rate May Rise Beyond 2,300% in 2018
By Patricia Laya  and Catarina Saraiva
October 10, 2017 at 09:00:00 EDT
Next year’s price estimate increased from a previous 2,069%
GDP estimates for 2017, 2018 revised down to 12% and 6%

Venezuela’s triple-digit annual inflation rate is set to jump to more than 2,300 percent in 2018, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the International Monetary Fund.

An intensifying political crisis that’s spiraled since 2014 has weighed heavily on economic activity. Gross domestic product is expected to contract 6 percent next year, after shrinking an estimated 12 percent in 2017, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday.

While Venezuela’s central bank stopped publishing inflation data in December 2015, the IMF argues the country’s consumer prices are estimated to leap 2,349.3 percent in 2018, the highest in their estimates, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 44 percent. As oil production declines and uncertainty increases, unemployment is forecast to increase to about 30 percent in 2018, also the highest and followed by South Africa’s 28 percent and Greece’s 21 percent.

The Bolivarian Republic isn’t current with most of its key economic statistics, leaving economists scant data to crunch. Before Venezuela’s new legislative super body took over the functions of the country’s only remaining opposition-run institution this year, the sidelined National Assembly had started publishing its own inflation index due to the lack of official data. Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index puts the annual rate at 650 percent.

 

[a_majoor]

It now seems that the Venezuelans are resorting to creative accounting in order to pay the bills (i.e. it is suggested they are stiffing one set of creditors to keep the cash for a different set of creditors). An interesting side note which is not really explored or followed up is the involvement of the Russians in supporting the Venezuelan economy. Considering their challenges with depressed oil prices and sanctions crippling the Russian economy, they could be dragged down with Venezuela if/when there is an default or an economic collapse. I also believe the Chinese have invested heavily (several billion dollars) into propping up Venezuela, so they too could be in for an interesting time:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/venezuela-is-blowing-debt-payments-ahead-of-a-huge-make-or-break-bill.html

Venezuela is blowing debt payments ahead of a huge, make-or-break bill

Venezuela's state oil giant has two massive bond payments coming due in the next two weeks.
The oil-dependent nation missed several debt payments totaling nearly $350 million last week.
Analysts don't expect Venezuela to default in the coming weeks, but the missed payments have rattled the market.

Tom DiChristopher | @tdichristopher
Published 2:00 PM ET Fri, 20 Oct 2017  Updated 2:28 PM ET Fri, 20 Oct 2017
CNBC.com

One week before Venezuela faces a critical debt payment, the distressed petrostate is already late on a series of smaller bills — and no one can say exactly why.

The nation's state-owned oil giant, Petroleos de Venezuela, SA, has two major bond payments totaling about $2 billion coming due in the next two weeks. While the market expects the company, better known as PDVSA, to avoid default, the missed payments have rattled investors and raised fresh questions about how long embattled President Nicolas Maduro's regime might last.

"You're cutting close to the edge of not enough money in the checking account to pay the bills," said Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at RVX Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in emerging and frontier markets.

Last week, Venezuela missed five coupon payments totaling nearly $350 million tied to the debt of PDVSA, the government and the utility Electricidad de Caracas. That stoked a minor sell-off in a number of outstanding bonds.

As for the upcoming payments, the first is due next Friday. The price of that bond dipped from a one-year high of $86.80 last week to $83.48 on Monday. It has rallied from a 12-month low of $62.50 on Aug. 1.

PDVSA needs to pay $841 million in principal, plus interest, on that bond. It's a critical moment for Venezuela because a default is seen as hastening Maduro's demise. Making matters worse, the collateral against the bond is Citgo, PDVSA's Houston-based refining and retail subsidiary.

The following week, on Nov. 2, a nearly $1.2 billion PDVSA bond is maturing. Total outstanding obligations for 2017 are about $3.4 billion, and there's no grace period for the two biggest payments.

As Venezuela's economic and political crisis worsens, foreign reserves have dwindled to just $9.9 billion. But analysts and money managers say more than half of that could be in gold and illiquid assets.

The market currently puts the odds of a Venezuelan default at 15 percent, according to an analysis by RVX Asset Management, but Zucaro said he believes the chances are closer to 40 percent. The environment is deteriorating, he said, as Venezuela's latest election results are being questioned and as sanctions on the country expand to include measures that prevent it from raising new funds.

Given the severe cash crunch, it's possible that Venezuela skipped out on the five coupon payments, which have a 30-day grace period, in order to allocate those funds to the payment due on the Oct. 27 bond, Zucaro said.

Edward Glossop, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that's possible. Since Venezuela is essentially locked out of capital markets, the impact of missing the payments on its ability to borrow is negligible, he said.

But Glossop believes another explanation is more likely: that U.S. sanctions have created technical problems that have forced Venezuela to make alternative arrangements to pay its debt, delaying payments. Some U.S. institutions could be refusing to deal with the government for fear of sanctions, he said. However, he doesn't doubt Maduro's willingness or ability to pay, given that making debt payments has been a priority.

Capital Economics projects that Venezuela is unlikely to default until 2019, though Glossop says it faces another round of hefty payments in 2018.

"Next year is quite tough again. It will be sort of touch and go," he said. "If oil prices remain where they are, we think they could get through."

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes Maduro will continue to rely on Russia to bail out the regime. Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, has given PDVSA financial support.

"While it makes sense that they will preserve as much cash to avoid default, they will not be able to do it without Russia. So the question will be how much acreage will this cost them?" she said in an email. "Rosneft is acquiring Venezuelan assets at fire sale prices."

 

[a_majoor]

The nation goes into default. And in a zen like fit of unself awareness, CNN finishes with: "This story has been updated to characterize Venezuela's government as socialist".

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/14/news/economy/venezuela-debt-default-sp/index.html

Venezuela just defaulted, moving deeper into crisis
by Patrick Gillespie  @CNNMoney
November 14, 2017: 8:10 AM ET

Venezuela's crisis taking a toll on its children

Venezuela, a nation spiraling into a humanitarian crisis, has missed a debt payment. It could soon face grim consequences.
The South American country defaulted on its debt, according to a statement issued Monday night by S&P Global Ratings. The agency said the 30-day grace period had expired for a payment that was due in October.

A debt default risks setting off a dangerous series of events that could exacerbate Venezuela's food and medical shortages.

If enough holders of a particular bond demand full and immediate repayment, it can prompt investors across all Venezuelan bonds to demand the same thing. Since Venezuela doesn't have the money to pay all its bondholders right now, investors would then be entitled to seize the country's assets -- primarily barrels of oil -- outside its borders.

Venezuela has no other meaningful income other than the oil it sells abroad. The government, meanwhile, has failed for years to ship in enough food and medicine for its citizens. As a result, Venezuelans are waiting hours in line to buy food and dying in hospitals that lack basic resources.

If investors seize the country's oil shipments, the food and medical shortages would worsen quickly.

"Then it's pandemonium," says Fernando Freijedo, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a research firm. "The humanitarian crisis is already pretty dire ... it boggles the mind what could happen next."

It's not immediately clear what steps bondholders will take. Argentina went through a vaguely similar default, and its bondholders battled with the government for about 15 years until settling in 2016. Every case is different, though.
Related: Venezuela admits it can't pay all its debts anymore

Venezuela and its state-run oil company, PDVSA, owe more than $60 billion just to bondholders. In total, the country owes far more: $196 billion, according to a paper published by the Harvard Law Roundtable and authored by lawyers Mark Walker and Richard Cooper.
Beyond bond payments, Venezuela owes money to China, Russia, oil service providers, U.S. airlines and many other entities. The nation's central bank only has $9.6 billion in reserves because it has slowly drained its bank account over the years to make payments.

The S&P default announcement Monday came after Venezuelan government officials met with bondholders in Caracas. The meeting was reportedly brief and offered no clarity on how the government plans to restructure its debt.
venezuela reserves nov 2017

The Venezuelan government blames its debt woes -- and inability to pay -- on a longstanding "economic war" waged by the U.S. More recently, the Trump administration slapped financial sanctions on Venezuela and PDVSA, barring banks in the U.S. from trading or investing in any newly issued Venezuelan debt.

But experts say the socialist Venezuelan regime that has been in power since 1999 bears the brunt of the blame. It fixed -- or froze -- prices on everything from a cup of coffee to a tank of gas in an effort to make goods more affordable for the masses. For years, Venezuelan leaders also fixed the exchange rate for their currency, the bolivar.

Related: Venezuela is blaming Trump for missed debt payments

Those moves were among the driving forces behind the food shortages. Farmers couldn't sell at low prices without going out of business because their cost of production was much higher. Importers also couldn't afford to ship in food, knowing they would have to sell at much lower prices than what they paid for at the port.

When food shortages grew worse, an illegal black market emerged where venders sold basic foods at vastly higher prices than the government's artificially low prices. Inflation soared, making the bolivar almost worthless.

One U.S. dollar currently buys more than 55,200 bolivars. At the beginning of the year, a dollar was worth about 3,200 bolivars, according to dolartoday.com, a website that tracks the unofficial rate that millions in Venezuela use to determine payments.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that inflation in Venezuela will hit 650% this year and 2,300% in 2018.

--This story has been updated to characterize Venezuela's government as socialist.