J
jollyjacktar
Guest
Buh-bye! Won't miss you Hugo.
Jim Seggie said:Gwynn Dyer wrote about him the Free Press.....stating dear Hugo was a "democrat".
What planet is Gwynn from?
Venezuela's Economic War on Itself
By Megan McArdle Nov 12, 2013 4:57 PM ET
Two disturbing stories came out of Venezuela this weekend. The first involves the Miami Herald’s Andean bureau chief, who was detained for 48 hours after he asked for an interview with military officials in the city of San Cristobal. The Venezuelan government says that he didn’t have permission to report in the country. Repressive governments often use this kind of flimsy pretext when they don’t like the questions you’re asking -- but outside of violent dictatorships, I believe the customary practice is to take you to the airport and watch you get on a plane back home, not to arrest you.
The second is even more extraordinary -- so much so that I’m not even going to summarize it.
Thousands of Venezuelans lined up outside the country's equivalent of Best Buy, a chain of electronics stores known as Daka, hoping for a bargain after the socialist government forced the company to charge customers "fair" prices.
President Nicolas Maduro ordered a military "occupation" of the company's five stores as he continues the government's crackdown on an "economic war" it says is being waged against the country, with the help of Washington.
Members of Venezuela's National Guard, some of whom carried assault rifles, kept order at the stores as bargain hunters rushed to get inside….
Daka's store managers, according to Maduro, have been arrested and are being held by the country's security services. Neither Daka nor the government responded to requests for comment.
These stories are more connected than they might at first appear. The detained reporter was looking into upcoming municipal elections and the chronic shortages of basic goods that have plagued Venezuela. And the “military occupation” of an electronics retailer comes ahead of those elections, in which Maduro’s party is not expected to do well.
The roots of both of these issues go back to Chavismo, the left-wing ideology of former president Hugo Chavez, who used Venezuela's oil revenues to support huge social spending. Unfortunately, Venezuela’s heavy, sulfurous crude requires a lot of continual investment to keep it coming out of the ground, and much of that investment has been diverted. Since Chavez took office, Venezuela has been pumping less and less of the stuff:
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
This was basically OK as long as oil prices were rising. But in 2009, they fell precipitously, and they have yet to recover. For the last few years, they’ve been basically flat.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
As a result, gross domestic product per capita is also basically flat; whatever the other benefits, the social welfare spending has not translated into an economy that can withstand stagnation in the oil sector:
Source: World Development Indicators
As oil prices fell, the government inevitably ran into political trouble, which it has tried to manage with ill-considered economic interventions such as price controls. Shortages of basic household goods are common, and currency restrictions have sent the price of airline tickets soaring as Venezuelans resort to vacations as a way to get a hold of scarce foreign currency.
These restrictions tend to fall apart, creating the need for even more extreme measures. That is what we are now seeing. Politics and economics are never separable, but they are particularly entwined in Venezuela. And as the economics get worse, so does the government.
About Megan McArdle»
Megan McArdle is a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy
Venezuela: Huge demonstrations UPDATED
7:40PM EST:
The whereabouts of the students arrested last week is unknown. Today’s student demonstrations protested their arrest. Last week’s demonstration protested the lack of security in Venezuela.
One of the three dead was a student who died of his wounds after Tupamaros confronted protestors in Táchira state today.
7:17PM EST:
Raw video from the streets of Caracas, of the moment a student got shot
Tanks on the streets of Barquisimeto,
LInked to by Instapundit. Thank you!
7:10PM EST (7:30PM Caracas time):
NTN24 reports 3 dead.
6:30PM EST:
More details on 2 killed as Venezuelan protests turn violent: marauding motorcyclists were involved
Gunfire erupted in downtown Caracas when armed members of a pro-government vigilante group arrived on motorcycles and began firing at more than 100 anti-Maduro student protesters clashing with security forces.
As the crowd fled in panic, one demonstrator fell to the ground with a bullet wound in his head. Onlookers screamed “assassins” as they rushed the 24-year-old student, later identified by family members as Bazil D’Acosta, to a police vehicle.
Also killed was the leader of a pro-government 23rd of January collective, as militant supporters of Venezuela’s socialist administration call themselves. National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello said the “revolutionary” known by his nickname Juancho was “vilely assassinated by the fascists” but he didn’t provide details.
6:07PM EST:
Another demonstration, this time a cacerolazo (where people bang on pots and pans from their homes) scheduled for 8PM Caracas time. Twitterers at #12FVenezuelaPaLaCalle expect a power outage.
Colombia’s NTN24 DirectTV & website down, their YouTube livefeed still on.
Noticias24: Prosecutor’s Office confirms 2 dead, 23 wounded
5:47PM EST:
Minister Elías Jaua allegedly gave the orders to shoot the demostrators
5:17PM EST UPDATE:
Twitter #12FVenezuelaPaLaCalle
Two students reported dead.
Government shuts down the NTN24 website but they still have their YouTube livefeed:
Postmortem
Posted By Richard Fernandez On February 13, 2014 @ 8:39 pm In Uncategorized | 138 Comments
The suddenness of Venezuela’s collapse should have come as no surprise because downfalls are inherently abrupt. Collapse is a phase change. One moment something is sailing along fat, dumb and happy and the next moment it is sinking beneath the waves. The change from two to one is a loss of 50%; but the change from one to zero is binary.
So it was in Venezuela. Imagine waiting two years [1] to buy a car and finding just when you thought you finally buy one that there are no cars for sale at all.
Leonardo Hernandez had hoped to buy a new car this year, ending nearly two years of waiting on various lists at different dealerships throughout the country.
Those hopes were dashed last week when Toyota Motor Co. said it would shut down its assembly operations in Venezuela due to the government’s foreign exchange controls that have crippled imports and made it impossible to bring in parts needed to build its vehicles.
The country’s other car manufacturers, including General Motors and Ford, haven’t even started operations this year, while waiting for needed parts to arrive.
Think of not being able to buy soap, rice or toilet paper or order a cup of coffee, where even the rich are feeling poor [2]. “In the serene private clubs of Caracas, there is no milk, and the hiss of the cappuccino machine has fallen silent. In the slums, the lights go out every few days, or the water stops running. In the grocery stores, both state-run shops and expensive delicatessens, customers barter information: I saw soap here, that store has rice today. The oil engineers have emigrated to Calgary, the soap opera stars fled to Mexico and Colombia. And in the beauty parlours of this nation obsessed with elaborate grooming, women both rich and poor have cut back to just one blow-dry or manicure each week.”
Imagine there’s no money to keep up the sovereign bond payments, the only source of money to keep power plants going.
Welcome to Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, a country with the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and absolutely broke. It’s a remarkable achievement for Chavismo. A just-wow moment. Socialism is useless at everything except for smashing things in record time. There it excels. It’s hard to imagine that as late as the 1980s [3] Venezuela had the highest standard of living in Latin America. But then in 1960 Detroit was the richest city in the world in per capita income. Now it’s well … Detroit.
James Eccleton [4] remarked on how the mighty have fallen. “Brazil is becoming Argentina, Argentina is becoming Venezuela, and Venezuela is becoming Zimbabwe.” The question that always puzzles historians about the fall of great and rich countries is: ‘why didn’t they say it coming?’ How did they let disaster sneak up on them?
Adam Smith once remarked that “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation”. That is usually understood to mean that it takes a long time to break things. And that’s probably what Leonard Hernandez thought: maybe next year things will get better and I’ll buy that car. But is more correct to say ‘a great deal of ruin’ means “it takes a long time to realize that things are breaking”.
The clue is the total finality of the crash when it comes. The victim when examined for postmortem is drained of blood; his organs are all twisted and perverted. The dead man was not ‘a little weaker than yesterday’ but in a far more fragile than was supposed. The damage was hidden as if the final day of reckoning was put off by eating the seed corn, pawning the family jewels and finally, selling the family members to buy the final meal — in a word as if everything was consumed to counterfeit the appearance of normalcy.
Thus, the collapse when it comes is unexpectedly complete. When National Intelligence Director James Clapper says Syria has become an ‘apocalyptic disaster’ it doesn’t simply mean that Syria is a little worse than in 2011, but far, far worse than we thought it was even in December 2013. The husk of Syria has not only consumed its final supplies of food, but also its reserves of comity, good will, human capital and luck.
The real damage was internal. A society can survive the loss of things, but it cannot survive without institutions or the destruction of culture. Culture is to nations what an immune system is to people. Nations under siege fall back on some atavistic condition. Thus, occupied Poland becomes more Catholic, as does Ireland, and as Egypt perhaps becomes more Muslim. They fall back on the known and the comforting. City Hall might collapse and the factory temporarily closed but if culture and identity survive these things can be reopened again.
The apocalypse of Syria means that many people don’t even want to reopen things any more. They hate their neighbors, individually and collectively.
The genius of the Left — Chavez’s for example — is that it destroys things from the inside out. They pervert religion, collapse the mores, abolish the family, shred the constitution and gradually expropriate the property. The differences from one day to the next are apparently imperceptible, but it is harder and harder to go back until finally there is no reversal of ‘progressive gains’ possible at all. The public is finally faced with the stark choice between chaos or authoritarianism. And most people will chose the Boss over the Mob.
The problem with Venezuela is that Chavismo [5] has left people with nowhere else to go. It’s burned the bridges. There’s no reopening the car plants or restarting the factories, or even repairing the power plants. The engineers have all emigrated to Alberta, Canada. The same can be said of Syria. Who wants to open a store in Homs? In ten years nobody left in Homs will even remember how to do it. A whole generation of children is now growing up who know nothing other than war.
One reason why Japan recovered relatively quickly after the Second World War was while the massive aerial assault leveled Japan’s cities it did not destroy the cultural and social institutions of Japan. When the smoke cleared the Japanese were still there and they rebuilt. By contrast destroying culture is so much more lethal. Detroit was untouched by the war. Not a bomb fell on it. But years of public education worked their magic. It dismantled the culture and social institutions which once built its factories. Time [6] reports Detroit had posted the lowest math scores in the history of the National Assessment of Educational Progress.
“These numbers are only slightly better than what one would expect by chance as if the kids had never gone to school and simply guessed at the answers,” said Michael Casserly, executive director of the Washington-based Council of the Great City Schools, which represents large urban school districts. “These numbers … are shocking and appalling and should not be allowed to stand.”
Not only will they be allowed to stand but improved upon in every negative way, thus proving that union education is arguably more destructive than the Atomic Bomb, only less obviously so. The reason why collapse, especially that caused by socialism, is so utterly complete is that the damage remains hidden for so long. The design margin is used up; savings are depleted; the institutions are hollowed out; public morality becomes perverted and education becomes nothing but a credential — and it all happens out of the public eye. Only when everything is used up, as in Venezuela, when the whole edifice implodes, as if by magic, does the cumulative effect become manifest.
Most people are spurred into resistance by a crisis. But they remain lulled into complacency while the crisis remains imperceptible. Progressive tyranny benefits from image management, and takes great pains to keep crisis from view. The most insidious thing about a secret police is its very secrecy, because the mayhem it wreaks is upon the intangibles, among things we call legitimacy. So it goes until only a facade is left. Until the day of death the victim is largely asymptomatic, except for a gradual weakening. When the onset comes he discovers that his immune system is completely gone and the end is sudden.
That’s how disaster sneaks up on a world determined never to see it coming.
Article printed from Belmont Club: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez
URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2014/02/13/postmortem/
URLs in this post:
[1] waiting two years: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/13/venezuela-toyota-car-industry/5433735/
[2] even the rich are feeling poor: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandeztheglobeandmail.com/news/world/venezuelas-economy-on-the-edge-of-the-apocalypse/article16845406/
[3] as late as the 1980s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Venezuela
[4] James Eccleton: http://james-eccleston.com/latameye/?p=149
[5] Chavismo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chavismo
[6] Time: http://detroit.blogs.time.com/2009/12/08/parental-guidance-suggested/
Cuba training armed government groups attacking and killing protestors in Venezuela
By Alberto de la Cruz, on February 16, 2014, at 8:14 am
There is a very good reason Cuba's Castro dictatorship is on the U.S. State Department's list of States Sponsors of Terrorism. As the report and video below clearly show, Cuba's repressive apartheid regime is training armed groups in Venezuela in the terrorist black art of repression, torture, and murder. This dark and bloody art is being put to use by Venezuela's puppet dictatorship, which takes orders directly from Havana and has for the last week been attempting to quash mounting protests with violence and lethal force.
Via Capitol Hill Cubans:
Cuba Training Venezuelan Armed Groups
In the video below (or click here), former Cuban intelligence official, Uberto Mario, describes (in Spanish) how the Castro regime is currently training Venezuelan armed groups.
Mario defected during his "service" in Venezuela.
Known as the Venezuelan Tupamaros, these are the groups who are violently and lethally attacking student protesters.
In other words, old habits die hard for the Castro regime.
Another reason why Cuba remains a "state-sponsor of terrorism."
This has been an on-going situation, with President Maduro following former-Pres Chavez's TT&Ps, using Cuban-advised terrorists to keep "the Marxist Revolution alive" in the face of protests for increasing democracy and a freer economy (unlike Canadian student protesters, these folks understand that Marxism doesn't work ).Thucydides said:Reading the news about places as diverse as the South China Sea, Syria, the Ukraine and Venezuela, I'm sure people looking for a tour won't have to wait too long......
Journeyman said:[Someone let me know if that link doesn't work without a subscription; if so, I'll post the key bits]
Journeyman said:This has been an on-going situation, with President Maduro following former-Pres Chavez's TT&Ps, using Cuban-advised terrorists to keep "the Marxist Revolution alive" in the face of protests for increasing democracy and a freer economy (unlike Canadian student protesters, these folks understand that Marxism doesn't work ).
However, I'm not sure the government is ready to pour troops into Venezuela just yet. While we do have strong-ish trading links with Venezuela: "Canada’s 6th largest trading partner in Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico)" [DFAIT: DFATD website], I don't think that's enough to qualify as a "national security interest."
Nemo888 said:.....you are are not getting it.
Personal liberty is infinitely more important than the economic system.