Venezuela Superthread- Merged

[big bad john]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5033768.stm

Russia in arms talks with Chavez 

Moves by Mr Chavez to boost his armed forces have worried the US
Russia is holding talks with Venezuela to license the manufacture of Kalashnikov rifles there, Russia's state arms exporter has confirmed.
On Tuesday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Russia planned to build two munitions plants in the country.

Moscow has already signed a deal to supply Venezuela with 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles.

The move is likely to worry the US, which regards Mr Chavez as a destabilising influence in the region.

In May, the US State Department banned arms sales to Venezuela because of concern over its contacts with Iran and Cuba and what it called Venezuela's lack of support for counter-terrorism efforts.

'Defend every street'

Mr Chavez made his announcement during a visit to Ecuador to sign a series of energy deals.

"The Russians are going to install a Kalashnikov rifle plant and a munitions factory," he said. "So we can defend every street, every hill, every corner."

Arms exporter Rosoboronexport confirmed that talks were taking place, but did not give any details of the timescale or proposed production capacity of the plant, the Associated Press news agency reported.

Mr Chavez also told reporters that 30,000 of the promised Kalashnikov assault rifles were due to arrive in June, a fact later confirmed by the Russian manufacturer.

Correspondents say that the US is concerned by Venezuela's moves to build up military hardware.

In April, Venezuela took delivery of three Russian-built military helicopters - the first of a total of 15 it has so far ordered from Moscow.

They would help to protect Venezuela if the US ever mounted an invasion, Mr Chavez said at the time.

The Venezuelan government has repeatedly accused Washington of trying to destabilise Mr Chavez - an allegation rejected by US officials.

 

[vangemeren]

That should drive up oil prices tommorrow.

There are so many troubled regions that it is hard to guess which one is going to be the next conflict.

I think that it serves Chavez more when these kind of deals are made public, it affects oil prices, which bring him more money and hurt the U.S at the same time.

 

[paracowboy]

we gotta pop that clown. Hopefully, one of his neighbours will get tired of his supporting terrs and do it for us.

 

[vangemeren]

Who would you suggest?

Columbia?
Internal Uprising?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/americas/06/year_of_elections/html/nn1page1.stm


Edit

Actually this guy has more time on his hands now, maybe he could do it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5033514.stm

 

[big bad john]

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?session=dae.16742938.1131572689.Q3Jt0cOa9dUAAHzOZ4o&modele=jdc_34

Venezuela Purchasing 24 New Russian-Made Fighter Jets
 
 
(Source: Voice of America news; issued June 15, 2006)
 
 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says his government will purchase 24 new Russian Sukhoi fighter jets this year to replace a fleet of U.S.-made F-16s. 

President Chavez made the announcement Wednesday in a speech before hundreds of soldiers at a military base in Caracas. Mr. Chavez also presented the troops with new Russian-made AK-103 rifles - part of an order of 100,000 of the weapons scheduled for delivery within the next six months. 

President Chavez said Venezuela is preparing for what he called the defense of sacred land. He has frequently warned that the United States could invade to seize control of Venezuela's oil reserves. 

U.S. officials deny any such plan exists. Last month, U.S. officials cited alleged Venezuelan links to Cuba and Iran as a reason behind a decision to ban arms sales to the government in Caracas. 

Venezuela has warned it could sell its F-16 fighter jets to other countries, such as Iran, while looking to buy more aircraft from Russia. U.S. officials say Washington and Caracas have previously signed agreements that would not allow such a resale. 

-ends- 

 

[Colin Parkinson]

After the first couple thunder into the jungle, the rest will become hanger queens, the Venezuelan’s I meet there in 94 weren’t big on looking after stuff. 

 

[R_Collins]

I found another article on it from Europe. Thought it might be nice to post this one as well.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-2228233,00.html

I seen this on another website filled mostly with liberals from America, and the general reaction was 'See? We shouldn't have been messing with them! And we're hypocrites for saying Iran can't have nuclear weapons! Now we're headed to World War 3!' I kind of died a little on the inside hearing all of that, but I did agree that there are some shocking parallels between the start of the World Wars and the current situation, what with the world esentially divided now into the Asian SCO and the western Allies through an alliance system, and the whole arms race.

I also came across a... rather interesting picture... Might be fearmongering, but a picture of how the world could probably be divided up if this DID indirectly result in another world war.

Blue=Allies

    Dark Blue= Troop Suppling Nations

    Blue= Aid giving Nations

Red= SCO

    Dark Red= Troop Suppling Nations

    Red= Aid Giving Nations

White=Neutral

With China and Russia (NUSSR) Aisi is pretty much theirs.
With Iran, the entire Muslim world is theirs.

With the USA, the entire first world is ours.

 

[rz350]

Granted, its a bit aggressive, but at the same time, I can not blame them (for wanting to protect their own self interests in the region) nor really fear them, I don't see China or Russia pushing into Europe like feared in the days of the USSR. At least not any time in the future...due to the a) lack of large stocks of modern equipment (sure, they have some cool kit, but not much of it in terms of quantity) and b) economic implications, as soon as they go, BAM, their own economy falls and they cant carry on past halfway though Germany.

 

[Centurian1985]

I found another article on it from Europe. Thought it might be nice to post this one as well.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-2228233,00.html
I also came across a... rather interesting picture... Might be fearmongering, but a picture of how the world could probably be divided up if this DID indirectly result in another world war.

Based on the way that some countries are portrayed I would say it is American made, but other than obvious alliances, some of these are crap.

Venezuela in red - since when did they become communist?
Columbia in red - ditto, WTF? Has a very pro-US government. 
India in blue - since when? giving aid is not the same as allying with the US, which India does not do, neither does it ally itself with Russia or China, they are a power bloc unto themselves.   
Jordan - another very pro-US country, yet shown as 'communist'?
Another dozen examples can easily be spotted but my point is proven.

Overall looks more like a grade 12 political science project than the work of a professional.

 

[xenobard]

Not so sure.  In many respects, Venezuela has become increasingly anti-american.  Political pressure might spill over making Columbia join the anti-american camp. 

India just signed some major treaty with the Americans, and so it isn't difficult to believe she would side with the Americans.

I agree, however, that Russia and China could in no way form a block anytime soon.

 

[Centurian1985]

Not so sure.  In many respects, Venezuela has become increasingly anti-american.  Political pressure might spill over making Columbia join the anti-american camp. 
India just signed some major treaty with the Americans, and so it isn't difficult to believe she would side with the Americans.
I agree, however, that Russia and China could in no way form a block anytime soon.

Bah! Label a country red just because they are a bit anti-American for a while? Might as well label France 'red' too then, considering how much they foamed at the mouth over Eurodisney.  As far as that goes, considering how anti-American Canadians are in many surveys, might as well paint us 'red' too, based on that logic. Anti-American does not equal communist bloc.

Venezuela in particular is not anti-American, it is anti-interference.  The wealthy class that owned the oil rigs didnt like how Chavez wanted the profits to benefit the country instead of heading out to other nation bank accounts, the same things our own government atempts to do.  The US didnt like how they played so they slapped a bunch of economic sanctions against them, blocking Venezuela from US markets, so of course they eneded buying 'red'.  This is the same thing that happened in Cuba - Castro didnt choose to go red, he got pushed there.  Many people forget he started out as a 'freedom fighter' supported by the US.

I'll also point out, again, that the originator of this map also has many Muslim countries lined up as part of Sino-Soviet bloc, a political ideology that is right out of the 1960's.  Its an 'Us vs Them' label that has too many inaccuracies in depicting todays playground.  A more accurate model is 'Us vs Them vs Those vs Others vs Where'd they come from? vs We can ignore that group'.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The map is to simplistic, Iran is Shiite and considered heretic by the other Muslim countries, many who supported Iraq’s war against it. Also consider that Iran and Saudi and butting heads over an oil field.

Wasn’t it SCO pressure/ support that caused one of the “stans” to ask the US to close up it’s airbase?


Centurion
Chavez is your typical South American dictator in the making (he was actually involved in a coup that failed)

His policies are going to bankrupt what is left of the Venezuelan economy and little money has been invested into infrastructure rebuilding. I was there in 94 and it was going into the toilet, they don’t have a strong manufacturing base and most stuff needs importing. The type of oil they have is not great and the reserves are not that big. China will only buy a little from them and will not rock the boat with the US on his behalf. Africa is far closer and the Chinese can take control of the oil infrastructure there much easier.

Chavez is setting himself up to be “President for life” the left wing lovers of this guy are going to be disappointed by him. 

 

[big bad john]

From the Army Times Early Bird report emailed to me this morning:

First Of 24 Russian Fighter Jets Arrive
(Miami Herald, July 5, 2006)
Two Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets, the first of 24 SU-30s that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez plans to purchase from Moscow, arrived in Venezuela on Sunday, a top military official said.

 

[GAP]

Is this not part of that huge oil deal that Venezuela couldn't renage on, and had to buy off the world market to satisfy??

 

[Centurian1985]

Colin P,

I finally have time to respond here. 

Perhaps you should get your facts straight.  The Venezuelan economy was bankrupted by worldwide oil prices not Chavez. He is a socialist, not a communist.  Chavez himself has been applauded as having instituted numerous democratic programs to help the poor.  Many of the ongoing problems were made worse by US embargoes after 2001, after Chavez appropriated several plantations claimed as private land by the wealthy class (agreed, not a smart move).  This was made worse by a sharp drop in international investment in 2002 due to continued US disapproval of his actions.  He has consistently been re-elected by a majority of the population, elections validated by international communities despite the comments of opposition parties that represent the opposition wealthy class.  Finally, his attempts to draw power to himself through control of government departments are no different from the actions of our own Prime Minister.     

Yes, he has the potential to become a dictator, but he is not one yet.  Continuing to undermine his leadership, as the US is reputed to be doing now (no definate proof, but would not be surprising considering known US economic tactics), will only force him farther away from Western nations and towards other 'alienated' countries.  Of note, despite US disapproval, Canada does significant business with both Cuba and Venezuela.     

As a quick reference of unclassified documents on the topic, check at Wikipedia under "Venezuelan economy" and "Current political events".

And another example from  http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1275 (under the fair dealings provisions) reference his 'bankrupt policies' you are claiming:

Wednesday, May 19, 2004  Print format
By: Martin Sanchez - Venezuelanalysis.com
In the first quarter of 2003, the world fifth biggest oil exporter suffered the devastating effects of a lock-out, strike and sabotage of the national oil industry, organized by opponents of President Hugo Chavez in an unsuccessful effort to oust him. The opposition's actions caused a historic GDP drop of 27.8%. Oil-related economic activity dropped 47% during that period.

According to preliminary numbers issued by the Central Bank, the Venezuelan economy grew by 29.8% during the first quarter of 2004 when compared to the same period last year.

According to the Central Bank report, in the first quarter of 2004, oil-related economic activity grew by 72.5%, while non-oil activity increased by 18.9% compared to the same period last year when it dropped 19.2%. The oil sector benefited from increased demand of oil and refined products, as well as the increase in production by private companies that operate in the country in joint ventures with Venezuela's state oil company.  The non-oil sector also experienced significant growth. Manufacturing grew by 48%, construction by 19.5%, commerce by 27.9% and transportation and warehousing by 25.3%.

According to the report, the increase in the internal demand, and the flexibilization of currency exchange controls implemented last year in order to curb capital flight, had a positive impact in the economy.   While some experts attribute the high growth numbers to a "rebound effect" from the 2003 crisis, the figures show that the recovery is genuine. High oil prices are one of the factors that helped propel the economy in this period.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I was there in 94, my brother worked there for 2 years in a lovely place called Km88. You are correct that Venezuela was in the toilet by the time Chavez arrived, mainly due to the epidemic corruption that is rife in the country stifling everyone that tries to create a better life. The people their call it the noose around their necks.

At first I was happy for them that they had elected a new leader that might start changing things, but Chavez is a bumbling twit, who is far better at being pompous and macho, than the day to day running of a country. He is setting himself up to be the president for life and intends to lead the country on a path of perpetual revolution, which has been a disaster everywhere it has been tried. The only reason the country is showing any signs of life is because of the oil and the raise in it’s price. They are not investing in their infrastructure, remember the collapse of the roadway into Caracas? That’s just one example. Chavez is a parasitic feeding off the sickness that bleeds Venezuela.   

 

[Centurian1985]

On some parts we can agree - Corruption is still a major problem and is unlikely to change.  Improved oil prices have been a major boost to the economy. 

Regarding setting himself up as El Presidente for Life?  Will have to wait and see what he does for the next election. 
Bumbling twit?  No better than most of our own North American political scalliwags. 

Am interested in your term 'perpetual revolution'. Is this the definition you are using?
http://www.bergonia.org/Econ/collectives.htm
"The point of revolution is to end bossism, and the point of perpetual revolution is to keep bossism forever at bay.  Mao engaged in a wholly futile effort to engage in perpetual revolution.  The Cultural Revolution began with the sanctioned slogan "Open Fire on Headquarters."  The Red Guard went over the top and violently disrupted the entire society.  Fortunately, Bergonians have learned well how to practice the art of rebellion within a stable structure, so that mini-revolutions occur within the stable socialist system.  Decentralization makes this possible, just as it makes possible the autonomous authority in the first place.  But much more important in the generation of these mini-revolutions is the basic willingness of the Bergonian people to take action when action is needed.  The manager who becomes "bossy" risks provoking open ridicule and defiance, and sooner or later the workers council will sack him.  When the manager turns into a boss, the workers are perfectly within their rights to back-talk him, ridicule him, occupy his office, and scatter his papers.  If he doesn't get the hint and correct himself, or work things out with his workers, then then workers assembly or council will fire him." 

If so, then you would be right, his actions of centralized government control are in direct contrast to a 'perpetual revolution' state, which doesnt work in real life.  However, as long as his path coincides with national improvement, we cant yet claim he has not been a significant factor in the improvement.

 

[Infantree]

Hugo Chávez has announced an imminent trip to North Korea, Iran, Syria and "North Vietnam"(?), to show his alignment with those showcases of democracy. In particular, his trip to North Korea could not come at a worse (better?) time. The North Koreans are in the process of testing a missile that could reach the United States.  The missile is probably the Taepodong-2 (TD-2). This is a big weapon, about 32 meters high, and has been seen on display in several occasions. Ten years ago the CIA estimated that it would take the North Koreans about 10 to 15 years to develop a ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, so that they must be close to this.

It seems well established that the Iranians and the North Koreans have been working together for years in developing missile technology. It is this close association of Iran and North Korea in the development of weapons of mass destruction that gives Chávez's trip an ominous meaning. So far, this dictator has mostly waged a war of words in the regional scene. In spite of insulting president Bush on a regular basis in his national TV and radio hookups, he has kept selling the U.S. some 1.4 million barrels of crude oil and products per day, since he needs the money to keep financing his extravagant Latin American policy of intervention and support for the extreme-left. But the failure of this policy, as illustrated by the defeat of his candidate in Peru, the pragmatic position of Chile against the Venezuelan candidacy for the U.N. Security Council seat, the progress of the economic integration of Uruguay and Colombia with the U.S., the survival of the Andean Community of Nations in spite of his arrogant withdrawal, and the increasing coldness to his moves shown by Brazil's Lula, is forcing him to become less of a local preacher and more a revised version of Dr. Strangelove. As Fidel Castro urged Nikita Khrushchev in 1962 to use the nuclear weapons installed in Cuba, it is not unconceivable that Hugo Chávez might want to encourage some sort of violent action against the United States by Iran or North Korea, or both. There could be a point in which words of hate against the U.S. are no longer satisfying to him and action looks like a more attractive option. This is a logical scenario that has to be kept in mind, since Hugo Chávez seems convinced (probably by Fidel Castro) that the U.S. will invade Venezuela in the short term to topple him, as they did with Panamanian dictator and drug trafficker Manuel Noriega. In his view, therefore, encouraging a mounting military threat to the U.S. by North Korea and Iran becomes a matter of "self-defense."



The stage seems set for a modern remake of Dr. Strangelove (1964). This time around, however, the ones that have the "bomb" are the religious fanatics of Iran and the crazy cowboys of North Korea. In such a new version of the film Hugo Chávez would probably insist on playing not only the four roles originally designed for Peter Sellers: President Muffley, Colonel Mandrake, Dr. Strangelove and Major T.J. Kong (Sellers could not play Kong, at the last minute), but also the role he would feel most at ease with: General Jack D. Ripper, the guy who "went funny in the head."

Can you believe this. Venezuela hates the US and is thinking of going to NK. What if they form an alliance. Things are all happining so fast.  War is on the way. I saw on CNN a couple of months ago that Venezuela's military were doing excersing on how do defend there country in case of Us Invasion. Whats your guys thoughts on this?

 

[Kat Stevens]

I think Venezuela would be better advised to research "building a better speed bump",  rather than to try a straight up gunfight with the US, should it ever happen, which it won't.

 

[Remius]

Seriously though, I doubt that war is on the way.  However NK is antagonising the US with its missile tests and is sending some mixed signals that will ultimately backfire on them if they are not careful.  I'm guessing that Venezuela wants a piece of the action lining up behind the neighbourhood bully yelling from behind his shoulder.

The only problem is that NK might/already has a bomb.  That has to be handled with kids' gloves.  And given the US's problem's in the middle east, they probably aren't too ready for another front.