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Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

From Twitter:

Canadian Air Force total sorties as of 2359 hr UTC, 3 May 2011: CF-188 HORNET 208; CC-150 POLARIS 80; CP-140 AURORA 32. #Libya #OpMobile
 
Kalatzi said:
In realated news Iread somewhere That HM"'s Government had decided to send the scury Libyan ambassador packing becaause Libyan Mobs had attacked several Foreign embassies to protst the lost of col spell-checks son.  Their embassy being one of the ones targetted.

I dare say it will teach those uncivilised  treacherous rogues a sound lesson, the very nerve of attacking an embassy!!!

Besides  they might have been injured or worse - by an airstrike.

To sum up - i think it somewhat surreal taht the brits are raining bombs on Libya, and complain when the libyans attempt retaliation.  Perhaps an A++ for hypocracy and brass

Anyway I'm off  to the  local to organize a "Rule Britannia" sing-song to celebrate this  latest triumph, of diplomacy.

or perhaps just off to the local :piper:

Your point would come across a bit better had you actually used spell-check.

Baden  Guy said:
From Twitter:

Canadian Air Force total sorties as of 2359 hr UTC, 3 May 2011: CF-188 HORNET 208; CC-150 POLARIS 80; CP-140 AURORA 32. #Libya #OpMobile

Do you know what's the total amount of sorties for the coalition? For the sake of comparison of course.
 
Inky said:
Your point would come across a bit better had you actually used spell-check.

Do you know what's the total amount of sorties for the coalition? For the sake of comparison of course.

From NATO's 04 May update :

Air Operations
Since the beginning of the NATO operation (31 March 2011, 08.00GMT) a total of 5207 sorties, including 2091 strike sorties* have been conducted.

http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2011_05/20110505_110505-oup-update.pdf
 
                                          Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Stalled Mission in Libya
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/opinion/06fri1.html?_r=2
The New York Times/Opinion Pages May 5, 2011

Unless NATO, including the United States, get more serious, Libya’s liberation war could turn into a prolonged, bloody stalemate. Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi is ruthless, and rebel forces are weak and disorganized. NATO still has the military means to help tip the balance if it can summon the unity and the will.

In their latest horror, Qaddafi forces rained shells this week on the rebel-held port area of Misurata, trying to keep international relief vessels from unloading humanitarian supplies. The civilian death toll from the war is already estimated in the thousands, while streams of desperate refugees keep pouring into Tunisia, Egypt and Europe. The alliance needs to get its act together.

President Obama was right to hand over this mission to Canadian and European command once the initial American strikes had shattered Libyan air defenses. But crucial momentum was lost in the transition. Coordination with rebel fighters was initially poor, leading to friendly fire disasters. The string of defections from the Qaddafi inner circle came to an end, as government forces dug in.

NATO allies, particularly Britain and France, have the high performance fighters that can carry the main burden of the air campaign. But the Pentagon needs to send America’s specialized low-flying attack planes, the A-10 and the AC-130, back into action against Libyan Army tanks. These are far more effective at destroying enemy vehicles and avoiding friendly ones.

Colonel Qaddafi has left no question about his willingness to murder civilians. Bombing strikes against military command centers, including Qaddafi compounds, are well within the United Nations Security Council’s mandate. They need to continue, though innocent Qaddafi family members should not be deliberately targeted.

Washington and other capitals need to do more intelligence work to figure out how to peel away more important Libyan players — and what mix of pressures and inducements need to be brought to bear.

And NATO needs to start speaking with one clear voice. We were pleased to hear Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, finally declare that Colonel Qaddafi must “immediately step down.” But Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany remains on the sidelines. All of the public squabbling has played into Colonel Qaddafi’s hands, reinforcing his claims that NATO doesn’t have the stomach or the sticking power.

Events in Libya pose a more direct threat to Europe than to the United States. Europe relies heavily on Libyan oil and a prolonged crisis will cause serious shortfalls in Italy and other countries. European leaders are already fighting over which country will take Libyan (and Tunisian) refugees, leading panicky French politicians to partially shutter their previously open border with Italy.

With no quick resolution in sight, the international community must extend a financial lifeline to beleaguered rebel-held regions. Diplomats from 22 NATO and Arab countries met in Rome on Thursday to consider rebel requests for urgent financial assistance. There are legal obstacles to immediately releasing the roughly $30 billion in frozen Qaddafi regime assets to rebel authorities in Benghazi. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton pledged to expedite that process.

At Thursday’s meeting, diplomats also said they were creating an international fund to channel humanitarian and financial assistance to rebel areas. The United States, Qatar and Kuwait promised generous contributions. European nations and other affluent Arab countries should do the same, with strict monitoring mechanisms put in place to make sure the aid goes to its intended recipients.
 
in the short and long run, whatever money and aid we send to rebels throwing off a ruthless dictator will cost less and last longer than sending in a large NATO force, won't it?

But will the next government be an improvement, I guess is the big question.
 
The NATO air campaign continues:

link

..TRIPOLI, Libya - NATO warplanes struck Tripoli early Tuesday in the heaviest bombing of the Libyan capital in weeks, while rebels reported battlefront successes in the east and west.

In the besieged port city of Misrata, the rebel's only urban stronghold in the west, a doctor said rebel forces had pushed outward to Dafniya, a town on western outskirts.

The doctor, who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisals, said fighting was taking place both in Dafniya and near the airport south of Misrata. Were the rebels able to punch through past Dafniya, it would increase the prospects of a further advance through the coastal town of Zlitan and toward Tripoli itself.

The rebels posted video clips calling on Gadhafi's forces in the area to surrender and saying they had advanced about 15 miles (25 kilometres) outward from central Misrata.

"We are after you Gadhafi," one of the fighters in the video said.

In eastern Libya, rebels reported ongoing fighting between the towns of Ajdabiya and Brega.

A rebel commander, Zakaria al-Mismari, told reporters that Gadhafi's forces had advanced on their positions with about a dozen vehicles on Monday, but were beaten back.

The rebel army has been bogged down for weeks near Ajdabiya, unable to move on to Brega, which has an oil terminal and Libya's second-largest hydrocarbon complex.

Planes were heard from Ajdabiya later Monday, after the rebels said they had retreated because they were told NATO was launching airstrikes against Gadhafi forces there.

Rebel appeals for heavier arms from abroad have not met any response, although NATO is carrying out airstrikes on regime forces as many countries demand that Gadhafi — Libya's autocratic ruler for 42 years — relinquish power.

In the latest strike, NATO planes hit at least four sites in Tripoli, setting off explosions that thundered through the city overnight. One strike hit a building that locals said was used by a military intelligence agency. Another targeted a government building that officials said was sometimes used by parliament members.

It was not immediately clear what the other two strikes hit, but one of them sent plumes of smoke that appeared to come from the sprawling compound housing members of Gadhafi's family.

Between explosions, an aircraft dropped burning flares. Some residents responded by raking the sky with gunfire and beeping their horns.

The two sides have been locked in a standoff, with the rebels controlling most of eastern Libya, and Gadhafi most of the west, including Tripoli. Exceptions in the west include pockets of embattled rebel-held towns along the border with Tunisia, and Misrata on the coast.

The intensified air campaign comes as NATO faces criticism for not doing enough to break Gadhafi's grip.

"We have succeeded in taking out a significant part of Gadhafi's military, we have significantly degraded his war machine," NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday during a visit to Atlanta. "So far our operation has been a success but there's still work to do."

NATO said the alliance could not comment immediately on Tuesday's strikes in Tripoli but hoped to say something at a news conference later in the day.

In Tripoli, government escorts did not allow reporters near the site of one building that was hit in the NATO attack. Residents said the building, which had buckled from the bombing, was used by a military intelligence agency.

Reporters, who may not leave their Tripoli hotel without government escorts, were shown damage done to a nearby hospital. A physician, Dr. Mustafa Rahim, said a 4-year-old boy was badly injured, but would not allow reporters to see him, saying he was in intensive care.

Another strike targeted a building — struck once previously — that two employees said was used by parliament members and housed a library for research into Gadhafi's writings.

The U.N. refugee agency, meanwhile, appealed to European countries to step up efforts to rescue people fleeing Libya in overloaded boats.

A spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Melissa Fleming, told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that any boat leaving Libya should be considered "a boat in need of assistance."

Fleming said a senior Somali diplomat in Tripoli told the agency that 16 bodies, including those of two babies, have so far been retrieved from a boat carrying 600 people that sank just outside the Libyan capital Friday.

___

Faul reported from Benghazi, Libya. Associated Press writer Frank Jordans in Geneva contributed to this report.
...
 
How much longer before someone puts ground troops in?

Not advisors....but actual combat troops?
 
Jim Seggie said:
How much longer before someone puts ground troops in?

Not advisors....but actual combat troops?

1... 2... 3...

NOT IT!!


The rebels have lost the momentum. Getting everything sorted quick and dirty-like would have been ideal, but that boat has sailed. Any change of regime now is going to have to be a long and deliberate effort, and should best be done after a lot of preparation.

I don't think it's really a good idea for the west to be using their soldiers to put in place a rebel government, if that rebel government isn't ready to put organized and competent police in the streets, prudent judges in the courts, and have a workable plan for re-integration.

Essentially, I think a second state needs to be established under rebel control, and once they've got their own house in order, and an acceptable plan to get the rest of the country in order, we can do what needs to be done to help them conquer the Dear-Brother-Colonel's state. Up to and including supplying arms and commiting ground troops, if need be.

On the other hand, if the rebel government doesn't pass our foreign policy smell test within a certain period of time (say by the end of summer), then we cut our ties, bring our planes home, and let nature take its' course.

The absolute worst-case-scenario would be for Canadians to fight, kill, and die, in order to put a ****ty government in place that turns around and starts committing its' own atrocities.
 
FoverF said:
a second state needs to be established under rebel control


I think they tried that sort of thing in Sudan, with rather mixed results. Don't quote me on that though...
 
Rebels says they captured Misrata airport
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-cnn-misrata-airport-rebels,0,2722027.story

BENGHAZI, Libya (CNN) -- Libyan rebels captured the airport in the besieged city of Misrata on Wednesday, a rebel spokesman in Benghazi said.

Shamsiddin Abdulmolah of the Transitional National Council said the airport, located in the southern region of the war-torn city, fell to "revolutionaries" after opposition fighters nearby in Zlaitin were able to join their counterparts in Misrata.

The capture of the location is key for the rebels fighting the forces of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi since it would provide important access for humanitarian aid.

Two months of fighting and the ongoing shelling of the Misrata port have prevented most aid ships from docking there, leaving the city "at the forefront" of U.N. humanitarian concerns, a top U.N. official told the Security Council this week.

NATO warplanes and missiles have been pounding Gadhafi's forces since March as Gadhafi's troops try to quash a nearly three-month-old revolt against his regime, and the ferocity of the warfare in Misrata symbolizes the animosity between the pro- and anti-Gadhafi forces.

Abdulmolah said an unknown number of casualties occurred in the fighting. He also reported that the oil-rich town of Jakharrah fell overnight to opposition forces and that Gadhafi's forces are surrounded in the oasis area towns of Awjilah and Jalu.

The NATO mission is intended to enforce a U.N. Security Council resolution that calls for the protection of civilians.

In its latest news release on Wednesday, NATO said vehicle and ammunition storage facilities, a surface to air missile launcher and an anti-aircraft gun were hit in the Tripoli area. It also said ambulance storage facilities were struck in Mizdah and Qaryat.

As for Misrata, Marie Colvin, the Middle East correspondent for Britain's Sunday Times, told CNN that rebel forces defending the city from government troops are making "meter-by-meter" gains despite heavy shelling and rocket attacks.

Units that remain loyal to Gadhafi have been firing rockets and artillery shells into residential neighborhoods, leaving a nearby emergency room full of women, children and old men, she said.

"The rebels are very much trying, at a minimum, to push back Gadhafi's lines so he simply can't do that," Colvin said on Tuesday .

Meanwhile, the rebels are asking why NATO forces aren't targeting the pro-Gadhafi gunners.

As for aid, a ship carrying supplies from the International Committee of the Red Cross docked in Misrata on Tuesday, but the ongoing fighting has deterred many captains from trying to enter the port, Colvin said.

The ICRC said the vessel carried medical supplies, spare parts to repair water and electrical supply systems and 8,000 jars of baby food.

Meanwhile, on the front lines of the battle, bullets are whizzing past "like very angry hornets," Colvin said. At least 70 rebels have been wounded -- but they have held their line, "and meter by meter were able to advance," she said.

"They're defending their homes. They're defending their families, and they are not giving up an inch. They are fighting," Colvin said.

The first shipment of nonlethal aid from the United States to the Libyan opposition arrived Tuesday in Benghazi, U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.

It included more than 10,000 MREs -- meals ready to eat -- that are halal, permissible under Islamic law. Other items en route from the U.S. Defense Department include medical supplies, tents, uniforms, boots and personal protective gear.
................
 
                      from: The Last Refuge and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Libya: Here Comes The “Ground Troops”…..
http://theconservativetreehouse.wordpress.com/2011/05/05/libya-here-comes-the-ground-troops/
So much for that time-limited, scope-limited, kinetic military action. NATO meets to recommend “It’s time to put boots on the ground”……. watch this one closely.

watch the video at link
 
                                        Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act
The Telegraph/11 May 2011
Libya: Nato doesn't know if Col Gaddafi is dead or alive
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8506311/Libya-Nato-doesnt-know-if-Col-Gaddafi-is-dead-or-alive.html
Nato has admitted that it doesn't know if Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is dead or alive.

A spokesman for Nato said its air strikes on Tripoli were not aimed at killing him.

"All Nato targets are military targets, which means that the targets we've been hitting are command and control bunkers," Claudio Gabellini said.

"Nato is not targeting individuals."

Asked about the whereabouts of Gaddafi, who has not been seen in public since he reportedly escaped an air strike on April 30 that killed his son, Mr Gabellini said: "We don't have any evidence. We don't know what Gaddafi is doing right now.

"And I tell you the truth we're not really interested in what he is doing,"

While the Libyan government insists that Gaddafi is in mourning for his son and will make an appearance in public soon, his absence has led to rumours that he died in the attack, the Guardian reports.

At least two NATO bombs struck the family compound on April 30 while Gaddafi was there, although his supporters said that he had survived "unhurt".

However, he did not attend the funeral of his son Saif al-Arab and three grandchildren who were also reportedly killed in the attack.

Officials blamed security fears for keeping him away and accused Nato of trying to assassinate him.

An FCO spokesman said: "We don't comment on rumour and speculation."

Nato officials, who began the campaign in March, have stepped up the pace of air strikes in Tripoli in recent weeks, aimed at what they described as the regime's military command and communications centres.


 
Shared with the usual caveats.

Canadian ship returns fire at Libyan forces
CBC News Posted: May 12, 2011 3:32 PM ET Last Updated: May 12, 2011 3:32 PM

Sailors aboard a Canadian warship helped thwart an attack by Libyan forces in the port of Misrata, according to NATO, firing back after coming under fire.  Several fast small boats were attempting to attack Misrata around 2 a.m. local time, but were pushed back by the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown, working with the British destroyer HMS Liverpool and a French warship.  "The boats were forced to abandon their attack and regime forces ashore covered their retreat with artillery and anti-aircraft cannon fire directed towards the allied warships," NATO said in a statement.  HMCS Charlottetown shot back with a short burst if machine-gun fire and HMS Liverpool also returned fire, NATO said. Neither warship sustained any damage.  "It is most likely [the Canadians] would have fired the ship's main gun — a Bofors 57-mm cannon off the front of the ship," CBC's David Common said.

The attack was the second action by pro-Gadhafi forces at sea, according to NATO.

 
NATO news release on above:
In the early hours of Thursday 12 May 2011, while conducting Embargo patrols in the waters off the coast of Libya, NATO warships participated in a coordinated defence against a small boat attack threatening the port city of Misrata.

Beginning at approximately 2 a.m. the Canadian Frigate HMCS CHARLOTTETOWN acting in concert with the British Destroyer HMS LIVERPOOL and supported by a French warship not under NATO Command, thwarted an attack on the port of Misrata by a number of fast small boats.  The boats were forced to abandon their attack and regime forces ashore covered their retreat with artillery and anti-aircraft canon fire directed towards the allied warships.

HMCS CHARLOTTETOWN responded with a short burst machinegun fire and HMS LIVERPOOL also returned fire.  Neither warship sustained any damage or injury during this engagement.

This is the second action by pro-Qadhafi forces at sea and follows the mining of the approaches to Misrata harbour two weeks ago.  NATO forces destroyed two mines and swept the area allowing safe passage for ships ....
 
Makes me wonder. The large ships that get taken over by a band of pirates with rifles - why don't they just blow them out of the water with a .50 cal or something before they get TO the ship?
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/05/12/canadian-sailors-libya.html


Canadian ship returns fire at Libyan forces
CBC News Posted: May 12, 2011 3:32 PM ET

Sailors aboard a Canadian warship helped thwart an attack by Libyan forces in the port of Misrata, according to NATO, firing back after coming under fire.

Several fast small boats were attempting to attack Misrata around 2 a.m. local time, but were pushed back by the frigate HMCS Charlottetown, working with the British destroyer HMS Liverpool and a French warship.

"The boats were forced to abandon their attack and regime forces ashore covered their retreat with artillery and anti-aircraft cannon fire directed towards the allied warships," NATO said in a statement.

HMCS Charlottetown shot back with a short burst of machine-gun fire and HMS Liverpool also returned fire, NATO said. Neither warship sustained any damage.

"It is most likely [the Canadians] would have fired the ship's main gun — a Bofors 57-mm cannon off the front of the ship," CBC's David Common said.

The attack was the second action by pro-Gadhafi forces at sea, according to NATO.
 
Navalsnipr said:
HMCS Charlottetown shot back with a short burst of machine-gun fire and HMS Liverpool also returned fire, NATO said. Neither warship sustained any damage.

"It is most likely [the Canadians] would have fired the ship's main gun — a Bofors 57-mm cannon off the front of the ship," CBC's David Common said.

Apparently David Common can't tell the difference between a .50 cal and a 57 mm.  ;D

89905755h5XJ77dDHS2007J001051.jpg

57mm_firing_2.jpg
 
89905755h5XJ77dDHS2007J001051.jpg



I think that the Centre of Excellence for Small Arms' Fire ought to conduct a SAV to HMCS CHARLOTTETOWN to see if there is anything we can do to assist in .50 training, as well as to suggest that they take our C-16s for employment on Her Majesty's Canadian Ships.


 
NATO said its warships found explosives and mannequins on a small boat off the Libyan port of Misrata on Monday, in what they believe was a plan by Muammar Gaddafi's forces to lure ships and destroy them.

A NATO statement said the boat was abandoned when NATO forces approached to check two rigid-hull inflatable boats (RHIB) heading toward the rebel-held port. The other craft escaped at high speed.

"An explosive ordnance disposal team from an allied warship was deployed to inspect the abandoned RHIB and discovered a large quantity of explosives (approximately one tonne) and two human mannequins," the statement said.

"It looks like they were there to look like people and draw ships in and the explosives could be detonated," a NATO official said.

A NATO ship destroyed the boat with gunfire, and the explosion could be seen 12 nautical miles away, the official said.

Last month forces loyal to Gaddafi laid mines in the approaches to the port of Misrata.

"However this is the first evidence of an attempt to use an improvised explosive device with decoy human mannequins to threaten commercial shipping and humanitarian aid," the NATO statement said ....
A bit more here.
 
Technoviking said:
suggest that they take our C-16s for employment on Her Majesty's Canadian Ships.

I'm serious about this.  The limitations of the C-16 (weight, ammo carriage, etc) would be negated.  And with the thermal sight, the gunners could fire at night.  The range is similar, and there are a variety of ammo types to fire.

Navy-dudes: what do you think? 
 
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