• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

There will be with LNGCanada wrapping up and Site C also nearing completion
They probably need a different kind of work than framing 6 story low rises.

[Add: if anyone in charge is serious about zero-carbon, those workers should have "big energy project" work already lined up from here to 2050.]
 
They probably need a different kind of work than framing 6 story low rises.

[Add: if anyone in charge is serious about zero-carbon, those workers should have "big energy project" work already lined up from here to 2050.]
Talking to my friends yesterday at lunch who are still working. They only have one "big project" on the books that's active. It's not that big, but would be good for the region.

 
Talking to my friends yesterday at lunch who are still working. They only have one "big project" on the books that's active. It's not that big, but would be good for the region.


Called it ;)

 
Latest polling from NANOS

Saw that. But it’s about two weeks old. And was reflected in the last aggregate already. Not showing newer data yet (ie that might show a drop like the Abaccus poll) but Doesn’t change the fact that the CPC is comfortably ahead.

Sunday’s 338 numbers will show if a trend line is emerging or not I would think. Probably the last real data set before the holidays.
 
Saw that. But it’s about two weeks old. And was reflected in the last aggregate already. Not showing newer data yet (ie that might show a drop like the Abaccus poll) but Doesn’t change the fact that the CPC is comfortably ahead.
Will be interesting to see when the Hamas debacle hits the polled masses. JT thinks it’s just Palestinians vs Jews math. I suspect it’s not. He and Joly are, I believe, missing the mark driving Canada’s pivot on the global/UN stage, but I suppose we’ll see soon enough.
 
Will be interesting to see when the Hamas debacle hits the polled masses. JT thinks it’s just Palestinians vs Jews math. I suspect it’s not. He and Joly are, I believe, missing the mark driving Canada’s pivot on the global/UN stage, but I suppose we’ll see soon enough.
This why we need a few weeks to see this stuff.

Tim Powers commented on the current Abbacus poll that they were fairly sure that the drop was due to the votes against Ukraine support and the short « filibuster ».

We’ll see in the weeks or so if Israel, the latest speaker gaff etc plays into into it. But…dental care and housing initiatives coupled with an interest rate that didn’t rise may offset.

But…heading into Xmas, if people are cutting corners to make ends meet on meals and gifts then I suspect any LPC initiatives or CPC blunders will be forgotten and we’ll see a steadier line in the polls.
 
Will be interesting to see when the Hamas debacle hits the polled masses. JT thinks it’s just Palestinians vs Jews math. I suspect it’s not. He and Joly are, I believe, missing the mark driving Canada’s pivot on the global/UN stage, but I suppose we’ll see soon enough.
No loyalty, just whatever political stance makes him popular at the time. If he shits the bed, he'll just blame someone else and change the subject. I believe he still has Muslim Brotherhood members and sympathizers in his caucus.
 
No loyalty, just whatever political stance makes him popular at the time. If he shits the bed, he'll just blame someone else and change the subject. I believe he still has Muslim Brotherhood members and sympathizers in his caucus.
Sorry, you are implying that there are members of Canadian parliament that are current members of the often violent and currently designated-terrorist-entity (by some states) Muslim Brotherhood? Which members exactly?
 
Sorry, you are implying that there are members of Canadian parliament that are current members of the often violent and currently designated-terrorist-entity (by some states) Muslim Brotherhood? Which members exactly?
There are some fringe sites and such peddling that or similar things.

This one did an article 2020. But it also accuses the CPC of it as well so at least it was balanced in its criticism lol.


You can search the media bias meter on « The Trumpet » and it won’t surprise you…
 
There are some fringe sites and such peddling that or similar things.

This one did an article 2020. But it also accuses the CPC of it as well so at least it was balanced in its criticism lol.


You can search the media bias meter on « The Trumpet » and it won’t surprise you…

I thought there was an LPC MP from the GTA area who was found out to be a Muslim Brotherhood supporter of some sort a few years ago.

I could very well be incorrect...
 
I thought there was an LPC MP from the GTA area who was found out to be a Muslim Brotherhood supporter of some sort a few years ago.

I could very well be incorrect...
I’m not sure. Seems it would be a simple search but not much comes up. Would that have been a candidate or an actual MP?

There were apparently insinuations about Algabra mostly from Rebel news.


This article from back then discusses the issue but offers no real evidence and in fact criticizes some of it. Even still, that’s a far cry from being an actual member of the MB.
 
I’m not sure. Seems it would be a simple search but not much comes up. Would that have been a candidate or an actual MP?

There were apparently insinuations about Algabra mostly from Rebel news.


This article from back then discusses the issue but offers no real evidence and in fact criticizes some of it. Even still, that’s a far cry from being an actual member of the MB.

That must be it. Merci beaucoup.
 
Nice play by the Federal Liberals to reneg on a pledge, then blame Doug Ford. Of course nothing untoward from then-Minister Mendicino…the gift that keeps giving.
You should see our one liberal MP trying to do damage control. He's a typical slime ball. He was city councilor, but wouldn't give it up until he was sure he'd win the liberal nomination, then bailed on city council and his constituents, mid term. The good thing is he only has one term. I don't think he's getting two. The Conservatives are dominating here for the first time in years. If he loses, no golden pension for him.😁

$900,000 Is what they owe us and $900,000 just so happens to be our budget deficit.
 
Another win for Trudeau yesterday with Bill C-21 receiving Royal Assent. This should be the safest Christmas in years!

In other news, it looks like the Ottawa/Montréal region will be denied a white Christmas because the Trudeau government faces CPC resistance to the carbon tax.
 
Latest aggregate poll from 338.


Ending the year is what looks like a downward trend for the CPC over the last few weeks (and yes starting from their bad week that was dismissed by some). The LPC seems to have benefited from a return of support from some that may have seen the CPC as an alternative.

My guess is the LPC will be re energized a bit from this. The « filibuster » (if one can really call it that) seems to have united the caucus a bit.

The CPC are still well into majority territory but a slow bleed is not what they need at any point. Someone mentioned before that they have an uncanny ability to shoot themselves in the foot. The lesson here is to not take anything for granted.

2024 will be a crucial year for both sides.
 
The Tories need to remember that anything more than 25% is soft support. They need to be mindful about losing the support of the surplus support when they play fan-service to the 25%.

From The Line:


Onto the other group of federal politicians who are getting on our nerves. If you spend too much time online the way your Line editors do, you might have noticed the ongoing campaign by the long-suffering Conservative MP, Michael Chong, who has been trying to figure out some defensible way to explain away his party's decision to vote against a series of measures that would give tangible form to Canada‘s stated support of Ukraine. This after the Conservatives voted en masse against a volley of government initiatives; we gave our eyes a mighty roll at the theatrics of those votes in our dispatch last week. We won’t go over all of the details again, but Chong's continued efforts struck us as interesting and worth comment.

Let us state the obvious: parties do not spend a lot of time sending out some of their best communicators to repeatedly try and explain and/or justify decisions they feel confident are working out well for them. Ukraine’s Canadian diaspora is large and politically well-organized, and the Conservatives are clearly feeling the heat. Perhaps if Mr. Chong simply sends a few more tweets, this will all be forgotten (we say with our tongues boring holes through our cheeks).

So that’s what happened/is happening. More interesting to ponder is why it happened. What the hell were the Conservatives thinking? Was no one in the room when the parliamentary plan was being hashed out able to mash together the brain cells required to grasp that voting against the Canadian military's ongoing mission to train the Ukrainian forces might not play great with Canadian-Ukrainians in the midst of Russia’s ongoing invasion of their homeland? Really?

Actually, come to think of it, sure. We can actually buy, with absolutely no problem or doubt, that the Conservatives did indeed have an acute shortage of adults in the room when this decision was made. But we suspect the answer is a little bit more nuanced and complicated than that, though maybe not by all that much.

First of all, let’s say what we don’t think it was: we are well aware that a degree of pro-Putin brain rot is a feature of right-wing politics across the democratic West. Canada is not immune to this, and we have no doubt that some percentage of the Conservative base and perhaps even the Conservative caucus is so afflicted. But we don’t see any evidence of it having hit sufficient critical mass for it to start changing how Conservatives vote in the House. It may yet. Worse is always possible, to paraphrase the prime minister, and we are certainly not guaranteed a less-stupid future, or even an equally stupid future, which is about as much as we can hope for these days.

That said, we suspect that some senior CPCers are aware of the pro-Putin thinking infecting the right, and that this may lead them to tread cautiously around some issues. But the fact is that Poilievre doesn’t really say much about Ukraine at all. This strikes us as more calculation than ideology, similar to how he avoids saying "China" and instead says "Beijing." We don't think he's pro-Putin. We just think he's a lot more worried than he ought to be about Max Bernier and the PPC.

And frankly, we would say this about Mr. Poilievre. The man is not really a radical — at least not yet. He is different from his predecessors in tone far more than in content. To our eyes, the CPC leader is a conservative campus nerd who got into politics way too early in life and then allowed his personality and worldview to harden in his early 20s.

So if it isn’t a sympathy for Putin, what does explain the votes? Frankly, we think the Conservatives are proceeding down precisely the same path that the Liberals have already advanced so far down: literally everything is politics to them. Why did they vote against all of the motions? Because they decided that they wanted oppose literally everything the government did, while making as big a show of it as possible — recall the stunts we discussed last week. Any opportunity for cooler heads to prevailing probably stalled the moment the Conservatives realized that some of the motions they would be voting against involved the carbon tax. Red to a bull, as it were.

Was this stupid? We think so. Hell, look at poor Mr. Chong. It seems obvious to us that his bosses now think it was stupid, too. But we don’t see anything alarming here, in the sense of far-right authoritarian infiltration. We just see a bunch of hard-core politicos that don’t spend nearly enough time outside their own goddamn bubbles. This is how you end up wrongly concluding that Canadians, including the millions of Ukrainian descent, will be so enamored with your voting against every single government initiative that they will fail to notice that a bunch of them were intended to provide wartime support to a country being invaded by Russia.

But like we said. A few more Chong tweets should just about fix it, right?

If Michael Chong is still trying explain that Ukraine FTA vote a week later, you’re losing.
 
The sin that plagues the Liberals is arrogance. The sin that plagues the Tories is resentment. Mostly because the Liberals have won 2 out of 3 elections since 1891.


The thing about all these scandals is that they did not seem, for the most part, to stem from a desire for personal gain or a conscious intent to break the rules: Even in the matter of SNC-Lavalin, those involved seemed somehow to have persuaded themselves they were colouring within the lines.

Rather, what appears to have been at work is a kind of vast unawareness, a genuine cluelessness that anyone could find the promiscuous commingling of interests on display – political, personal, business, bureaucratic – objectionable. That does not make it better; if anything, it makes it worse. Crooks at least know what laws they’re breaking.

Certainly it is more intractable. It is the consequence of decades of Liberal hegemony, not only political (since 1891, the federal Liberals have won two elections in every three) but more broadly. Liberals, and liberals, are so dominant in our politics, and in the little worlds that revolve around politics – the bureaucracy, the courts, the universities and, yes, the media – that I think it really is difficult for them to imagine that there exists a world outside their own, except in some vague theoretical sense.

Add in the thousands of activist groups the party has taken care over the years to cultivate with public funds, or the immense archipelago of subsidies to businesses large and small across the country, the whole apparatus of Liberal clientelism, and you have a whole agreeable universe of Liberaldom, a cosmos of comity. A person could spend their whole career inside without ever encountering an unfriendly face.



Thus if they reward or are rewarded by or otherwise are too close to their friends, it is not because they are Their Friends, since as far as they can tell there is no other kind of person. To ask, do Liberals understand conflict of interest, is to ask: Does a fish know it is wet?

Take Mr. Fergus. I said he was no stranger to politics. I understated the matter. Before he was an MP, he was national director of the federal Liberal Party. Before that he was a staffer to two cabinet ministers. Before that he was president of the Young Liberals of Canada. His whole life, in short, has been spent in the company of other Liberals.

That hardly makes him unique. The most blinkered partisans on the Conservative benches are also political lifers, of which the party has more than its share. But Liberal lifers have two things their Conservative counterparts lack. One is assured access to power. Two years in three, historically, Liberals have been in government; in the third, they have been busy preparing for it.

The other is the divine rightness of their cause. Liberals have always been prone to being corrupted by power, but the current crop of Liberals are unique for being corrupted by their own virtue. The preening moral vanity that is a signature of the Trudeau Liberals – the gratitude, as in the Pharisee’s prayer, that they are “not like other men” – is not, alas, an act. They truly believe it, to the point that they are literally incapable of conceiving of themselves doing wrong.



It isn’t only that they are surrounded by people like themselves, in other words: They are surrounded by people who think like them, and whose first thought at all times is that whatever it is they are thinking must be for the Good. If they are aware that there are other types of people or other ways of thinking, it is only as a cautionary tale – like the ogres in folk stories, an example of the threats that lurk for the unwary.

So, for example, when it came to appointing someone to look into allegations that China had interfered in Canada’s elections on behalf of the Liberals – and that various Liberal cabinet ministers had looked the other way at it – it was the most natural thing in the world for the Prime Minister to appoint, as “special rapporteur,” a lifelong family friend, one of 23 governing members of his family foundation, and a previous beneficiary of the same government’s patronage.

A cynic would suggest the Prime Minister appointed someone he could count on to keep shtum. I think it literally didn’t occur to him there was anything wrong with it. I think he thought this was a perfectly splendid appointment. As, indeed, did many others outside his immediate circle, who applauded it at the time. Some still do.

If all of this leaves the impression that the Conservatives are the victims of the piece, it shouldn’t. Liberal political and cultural hegemony is as much the Conservatives’ doing – not only for the political ineptness that has so often delivered the Liberals safely, even miraculously, into power, but for their own willingness to inhabit the stereotypes Liberals make of them.
If people in the bureaucracy, or the law, or the universities, are inclined to see the Conservatives, and conservatives, as the barbarians at the gate, it is not entirely a matter of snobbery or bias. It is also because, all too often, especially of late, they have acted like it. Tory paranoia is not entirely unwarranted, but neither is it entirely undeserved.



The long and honourable conservative tradition of skepticism of intellectuals – that is, of overzealous, overweening intellectuals – has congealed into a hostility to science, to expertise, even to facts. The proud conservative tradition of defending Parliament, and parliamentary prerogatives, has given way to fantasies of abolishing judicial oversight, or ignoring the division of powers, or simply defying the law. Conservatism, as such, with its bedrock insistence on rules-based orders and limited government, has increasingly been subsumed by populism, which acknowledges no such rules or limits.

None of this is the least bit necessary. It is not written in stone that the universities must always be hostile to conservatives: If conservatism is not adequately represented in the academy, the answer is to reform the academy, not to demonize it. If the courts lean left, focus on building a body of conservative legal scholarship, and conservative jurists, rather than running roughshod over judicial independence. If the media aren’t giving you a fair shake – oh, come on: You’re in the media manipulation business. And we’re easily manipulated.

Would an incoming Conservative government be viewed with some suspicion by the Ottawa bureaucracy? After all that has gone before, probably. But most of them are fair-minded professionals with a job to do. A smart Conservative government would look for ways to build alliances and get things done; it would give the benefit of the doubt to those that gave it the benefit of the doubt. A dumb Conservative government would carry on with the same strategy of polarization and picking fights that got it there.

Each of the parties has its faults, in other words. Both are, in their own way, the product of Liberal hegemony – what the late Richard Gwyn called “one-and-a-half-party rule.” If the besetting Liberal sin is arrogance, the feeling they are (literally, in some cases) born to rule, the besetting Tory sin is resentment, the sense that everyone and everything is stacked against them. Given power, then, both tend to abuse it: the Liberals, because they can, the Tories because, as they see it, they must.
 
Back
Top