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Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

There are signs yes, but hardly a real recovery. Need a few more weeks to see how that plays out. CPC a may have plateaued (meaning they are as high as they can go, but they still have a commanding lead) and a few gaffes may be affecting things. Not sure it is enough to move the needle to anything significant.
If there is any party in Canadian politics that can shoot itself in the electoral dick and lose what should be an easy win, it is the CPC.
 
There are signs yes, but hardly a real recovery. Need a few more weeks to see how that plays out. CPC a may have plateaued (meaning they are as high as they can go, but they still have a commanding lead) and a few gaffes may be affecting things. Not sure it is enough to move the needle to anything significant.
What gaffes have I missed lately, re the CPC? (I can't think of any...?)
 
New polls tonight show Liberals making very strong recovery in Ontario and Atlantic, so much that a CPC majority is off the table. This is the swing of religious minority votes especially in London, Hamilton, York, Oshawa and a concentration of attacks on Pollievre.
Link?

Not seeing trouble here.
 
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Give it some time the middle class still hasn’t been hit by the brunt of the economic hardships that are coming.

Between mortgage renewals happening, inflation and other nickel and dimeing measures their buying power and standard of living is quickly going down. Simple example being between CPP going up, the new ‘CPP2’ being implemented and EI premiums going up anyone making about 72k or more a year can expect a 350$ extra paid out of pocket. This is on top of how much it has gone up since 2019 when they decided to slowly implement their 1% increase.

That doesn’t sound like much but when you consider everything is going up except wages that makes a difference.
 
What gaffes have I missed lately, re the CPC? (I can't think of any...?)
Two things I would say. I use quote marks as I don’t truly think they are that big in the long run.

Look at seat projections in the last two weeks or so. There may be some correlations with those slight drops with what happened at committee with the whole « speak english » thing. As such there is an uptick in Bloc support.

And the trap they sort of put themselves in with suppport to Ukraine. It’s ammo for the LPC. Same correlation.

Again, these are not monumental gaffes but gaffes nonetheless that were pounced on.

So if you look at the trend lines in the last two to three weeks on that chart, the BQ and NDP have shot up a bit and the LPC has grasped what it has (which isn’t much). Which looks to me that maybe some voter intention going to the NDP and BQ rather to the CPC. Liberal votes may be shifting there rather than being captured by the CPC. So the CPC line looks plateaued and dipped slightly.

As I said, we need to see a few more weeks to see if a trend is building or not on that.

None of this changes the predicted outcome if an election were to be held today though.
 
Agreed!

(Fishbone - like Bri said, the purple is hard to see. Liking what you did tho!)


EagleLord - CPP2??
Gradual CPP increase from 25% of YMPE to 33%, also with significant YMPE increase, but with contribution rates increasing to make it happen. I’m curious to see how it impacts those of us contributing to DB pension plans.
 
I’m curious to see how it impacts those of us contributing to DB pension plans.
Would it, though? At least in the short-term before negotiations of the next CBA? Unless the DB plans are legislatively changed to DC, they will remain as sunk costs to the Government program. That said, if the Liberal government keeps growing the PS, especially without any demonstrable increase in public service output or productivity, something’s no doubt going to give somewhere and further increases to CPP and EI contributions wouldn’t really be a shock TBH.
 
Would it, though? At least in the short-term before negotiations of the next CBA? Unless the DB plans are legislatively changed to DC, they will remain as sunk costs to the Government program. That said, if the Liberal government keeps growing the PS, especially without any demonstrable increase in public service output or productivity, something’s no doubt going to give somewhere and further increases to CPP and EI contributions wouldn’t really be a shock TBH.

I don’t know. But also, collective agreements often don’t touch on pension plans. Federal CBAs, to the best of my knowledge, have a carve out that places anything statutory off the table.

But I more meant in an actuarial sense- will DB pension contributions be permitted to decrease to offset increased CPP contributions that form part of the integrated defined benefit.
 
I don’t know. But also, collective agreements often don’t touch on pension plans. Federal CBAs, to the best of my knowledge, have a carve out that places anything statutory off the table.
Which while true, only lasts until the statutes are changed legislatively…

But I more meant in an actuarial sense- will DB pension contributions be permitted to decrease to offset increased CPP contributions that form part of the integrated defined benefit.
Ah, tracking. Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an OIC change (increase) the contributions rate further. The precedent is there for the 6X%/3X% (can’t recall exactly ATM) move to 50/50, so again, wouldn’t be surprised to see it changed.

Have we started the Mendicino vs a head of lettuce showdown yet?
😆 certainly living in interesting times. At some point, we’ll need a thread for who follows Le Dauphin. So we have what, Fraser, Mendicino, Anand and a head of lettuce so far?
 
Gradual CPP increase from 25% of YMPE to 33%, also with significant YMPE increase, but with contribution rates increasing to make it happen. I’m curious to see how it impacts those of us contributing to DB pension plans.
I imagine it won’t change anything other than the premiums you are all paying.

I get the ‘intent’ is to provide more pension for us later, the cynic in me is saying its all to compensate for people living longer and not having paid enough into contributions well working to make up for the amount they are taking out.

That more pension later also doesn’t make up for the added cost today when many are struggling as is.
 
Not quite at the levels of the 2011 election where the orange crush put the liberals to third party status, though if that happens again, and the NDP becomes the official opposition, I don't see how JT would be able to stay on as leader.
Um god given entitlement perhaps?
 
... is it possible for a political party to lose an election so badly that they cease to exist? ...
Didn't eliminate the party, but in 1993, Team Blue was left, in the words of one comedian of the time, with "one breeding pair" left in the House.
New polls tonight show Liberals making very strong recovery in Ontario and Atlantic, so much that a CPC majority is off the table. This is the swing of religious minority votes especially in London, Hamilton, York, Oshawa and a concentration of attacks on Pollievre.
Still a loooooooooong way from an election, with Team Blue still significantly ahead generally speaking. Lots can still happen.
 
Can't say I'll miss her dramatics in the House. She always put me in mind of the wicked witch of the west. (the 1939 version)
 
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