Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[ArmyRick]

MacKay blames Conservative election loss on Scheer's social conservatism

One-time and possible future leadership contender Peter MacKay says the "stinking albatross" of Andrew Scheer's social conservative values cost the Conservatives the election.

atlantic.ctvnews.ca

There's a very winnable election based on housing, economic, and foreign policy issues. Stealing American culture war issues to satisfy the portion of the base that thing the CPC is / want the CPC to be GOP North is an easy way to lose it.

4 year old article, might as well be the last ice age in political timeline.

 

[IKnowNothing]

4 year old article, might as well be the last ice age in political timeline.

Providing context to my post by referencing the comment.

But.. I'll contest that assertion.

That 4 year old comment and (article) was McKay's downfall in the the 2020 leadership, as he alienated the albatross by calling it such, and O'Toole did a better job courting it.

O'Toole trying to walk the line and appease the albatross while also pivoting to gain moderate voters cost led to his lack of identity and perceived flipflopping in the 2021 election, leading to failure to gain enough in the centre AND the loss of a significant portion of the albatross, leading to a JT win in 2021.

That weakness and lack of principle left the door open for a caucus revolt.

That comment and article arguably shaped the last 4 years of conservative politics, and still holds true today.

 

[ArmyRick]

Providing context to my post by referencing the comment.

But.. I'll contest that assertion.

That 4 year old comment and (article) was McKay's downfall in the the 2020 leadership, as he alienated the albatross by calling it such, and O'Toole did a better job courting it.

O'Toole trying to walk the line and appease the albatross while also pivoting to gain moderate voters cost led to his lack of identity and perceived flipflopping in the 2021 election, leading to failure to gain enough in the centre AND the loss of a significant portion of the albatross, leading to a JT win in 2021.

That weakness and lack of principle left the door open for a caucus revolt.

That comment and article arguably shaped the last 4 years of conservative politics, and still holds true today.

3/4 agree with what you said here.

 

[Halifax Tar]

MacKay blames Conservative election loss on Scheer's social conservatism

One-time and possible future leadership contender Peter MacKay says the "stinking albatross" of Andrew Scheer's social conservative values cost the Conservatives the election.

atlantic.ctvnews.ca

There's a very winnable election based on housing, economic, and foreign policy issues. Stealing American culture war issues to satisfy the portion of the base that thing the CPC is / want the CPC to be GOP North is an easy way to lose it.

I'm not sure MacKay's comments hold much water if the current political polling trends are to be believed and sustained...

To sum up, either PP seem is doing something right. Or Canadians are just ready to vote out the LPC.

 

[ArmyRick]

3/4 agree with what you said here.

These two things go hand in hand.

The Trudeau brand of liberals have gone very stale and the policies are financially hurting Canadians badly

Along with Pierre offering financial hope as his biggest promise.

Its a very fine balancing act and if pierre steps the wrong way or if the liberals hit the refresh button (JT way past his welcome now), all bets are off.

 

[ArmyRick]

I'm not sure MacKay's comments hold much water if the current political polling trends are to be believed and sustained...

To sum up, either PP seem is doing something right. Or Canadians are just ready to vote out the LPC.

Both.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I'm not sure MacKay's comments hold much water if the current political polling trends are to be believed and sustained...

To sum up, either PP seem is doing something right. Or Canadians are just ready to vote out the LPC.

The latter is certainly true. And since his pivot I'd agree with the former.

But, neither invalidates my bringing up McKay's comment in relation to Rem's post about the intentions of a wing of the party to bring social BS to the convention.

The CPC needs to do two things between now and the next election.
A. Present a viable alternative for improvement in the key files having an impact on Canadian lives to earn votes "for" them.
B. Make themselves a safe place for people to vote "against" Trudeau.

The Socon/GOP north wing making a lot of noise at the convention and getting any traction at all on nonsense "issues" will blast a gaping hole in B. and make it all too easy for the LPC to frame the CPC as an unserious party whose main priority is bullying gay people, invading people's bedrooms and doctors offices etc. etc.

That's the albatross, and a threat to PP and the CPC's electoral chances.

 

[ArmyRick]

The latter is certainly true. And since his pivot I'd agree with the former.

But, neither invalidates my bringing up McKay's comment in relation to Rem's post about the intentions of a wing of the party to bring social BS to the convention.

The CPC needs to do two things between now and the next election.
A. Present a viable alternative for improvement in the key files having an impact on Canadian lives to earn votes "for" them.
B. Make themselves a safe place for people to vote "against" Trudeau.

The Socon/GOP north wing making a lot of noise at the convention and getting any traction at all on nonsense "issues" will blast a gaping hole in B. and make it all too easy for the LPC to frame the CPC as an unserious party whose main priority is bullying gay people, invading people's bedrooms and doctors offices etc. etc.

That's the albatross, and a threat to PP and the CPC's electoral chances.

Its not as big an albatross as the liberals make it out to be. Look how Trudeau a few months ago tried to make abortion an issue again. Pierre and the CPC didn't bite. Mad Max Bernier did like an idiot and sunk even further

 

[Halifax Tar]

The latter is certainly true. And since his pivot I'd agree with the former.

But, neither invalidates my bringing up McKay's comment in relation to Rem's post about the intentions of a wing of the party to bring social BS to the convention.

The CPC needs to do two things between now and the next election.
A. Present a viable alternative for improvement in the key files having an impact on Canadian lives to earn votes "for" them.
B. Make themselves a safe place for people to vote "against" Trudeau.

The Socon/GOP north wing making a lot of noise at the convention and getting any traction at all on nonsense "issues" will blast a gaping hole in B. and make it all too easy for the LPC to frame the CPC as an unserious party whose main priority is bullying gay people, invading people's bedrooms and doctors offices etc. etc.

That's the albatross, and a threat to PP and the CPC's electoral chances.

So, I will propose that that albatross is more of a snipe now. To my recollection, and I stand to be corrected, neither Scheer nor O'Toole ever polled as high as PP currently is. They also weren't dealing with a Government that was so long in the tooth. Of course polls can change and can be wrong; and PP still has time to step on his own feet yet.

I think one must see now that CPC has become the obvious "viable alternative", to use your words, to a large amount of Canadians. And it may give him an opportunity to form government.

As for MacKay, hes a sore loser. And an article from 4 years ago, to me, doesn't hold a lot of weight when it comes to political possibilities. But YMMV.

Lastly, I think we may be seeing as resurgence in SOCON beliefs, a pendulum will only swing so far in one direction before it comes back the other way. What that means, I have no idea but I think the winds are changing.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Its not as big an albatross as the liberals make it out to be. Look how Trudeau a few months ago tried to make abortion an issue again. Pierre and the CPC didn't bite. Mad Max Bernier did like an idiot and sunk even further

Again, this line of commenting was in response to a report of that wing planning to push policies at the convention- not about Pierre.
IF it happens, the size of the albatross will be directly proportional to how "out there" the push is, and how well received it is by the delegates.

 

[RangerRay]

To sum up, either PP seem is doing something right. Or Canadians are just ready to vote out the LPC.

I would have agreed with you last week. Now I only agree with former. Since the recent story coming out saying he’s still boosting WEF and other nonsense conspiracy theories at BBQs, then blaming the media for reporting it, I can’t help but think he hasn’t learned his lesson. He seems determined to give up on 10-20 points of gettable votes in the suburbs for 5 points of PPC votes across the country.

When the election starts, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Liberals will churn out all that crap on a continuous loop, and torque it with their own nonsense across all media platforms.

What made “Soldiers in our streets” ludicrous was it was completely unbelievable. At no time did anyone in the CPC call for martial law. Now, the Liberals can just post video of PP, Tory candidates and campaign literature from Portage-Lisgar saying stupid shit.

The Tories are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If Poilievre doesn’t smarten up, they’re going to do it again.

IMHO

 

[QV]

I think you both are right. But not because the SOCON wing of the CPC is a viable threat, only because the LPC lead media will make it sound like the SOCON wing is the CPC. This is of course all bullshit, but that is how the LPC and the media lie and too many voters are still gullible.

 

[Good2Golf]

He seems determined to give up on 10-20 points of gettable votes in the suburbs for 5 points of PPC votes across the country.

I think you’re bang-on with this comment, RR.

I can’t help thinking about The Scorpion and the Frog…

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Both Scheer (34% to 31%) and O'Toole lost to trudeau. Both had many more votes than trudeau, but lost on riding numbers. They were both polling in minority territory.

PP is polling in majority territory and if history follows, will get more votes. He is however, unlike his predecessors, substantially eating away at trudeaus legacy ridings.

The question is can he keep the momentum going until an election is called? Or will his message and support go stale first?

 

[Lumber]

Both Scheer (34% to 31%) and O'Toole lost to trudeau. Both had many more votes than trudeau, but lost on riding numbers. They were both polling in minority territory.

PP is polling in majority territory and if history follows, will get more votes. He is however, unlike his predecessors, substantially eating away at trudeaus legacy ridings.

The question is can he keep the momentum going until an election is called? Or will his message and support go stale first?

If the Liberals keep pushing stupid policies at stupid times (or, arguably, good policies at stupid times), then PP should have no trouble, I think, keeping up the momentum. Trudeau is serving it up to him on a platter.

 

[Remius]

Good points all around but remember that PPs personal polling numbers aren’t exactly great. I say this with me approving of his latest image makeover.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690944902505299968

He’s benefitting by solid summer polling but we could still be two years from an election.

As RR said it could all derail if he can’t maintain discipline.

 

[Lumber]

He’s benefitting by solid summer polling but we could still be two years from an election.

As RR said it could all derail if he can’t maintain discipline.

Sort of similar to what I alluded to before, I think the CPC numbers are primarily based on the LPC doing a really bad job, and less on the CPC providing a superior alternative. The Liberals don't seem to be doing anything major to try and make things financially better for Canadians; in fact they are doing the opposite. However, I haven't seen anything from the CPC as to what they would differently, and why it would work (other than their "blue seal" idea for bringing in foreign trained Doctors).

 

[mariomike]

Since the recent story coming out saying he’s still boosting WEF and other nonsense conspiracy theories at BBQs, then blaming the media for reporting it, I can’t help but think he hasn’t learned his lesson.

Today's Beaverton, < satire emoji

Conservatives explain why Pierre Poilievre attacking 'globalist elites' isn't antisemitic

Pierre Poilievre is refusing to back down from criticism for attacking 'globalist Davos elites' in a Conservative fundraising email.

www.thebeaverton.com

Erin put it this way,

Former Conservative leader says some conspiracy theories are 'two or three steps away from antisemitism'

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-leaving-politics-social-media-1.6877453

He also addressed some persistent conspiracy theories related to the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the United Nations.
"Well, my worry with some of the online conspiracy theories about global government and things like this, they're two or three steps away from antisemitism," he said. "And so, if you do not challenge some of these prevailing memes or threads going around the Internet, it's only going to get worse."

 

[Halifax Tar]

I would have agreed with you last week. Now I only agree with former. Since the recent story coming out saying he’s still boosting WEF and other nonsense conspiracy theories at BBQs, then blaming the media for reporting it, I can’t help but think he hasn’t learned his lesson. He seems determined to give up on 10-20 points of gettable votes in the suburbs for 5 points of PPC votes across the country.

When the election starts, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Liberals will churn out all that crap on a continuous loop, and torque it with their own nonsense across all media platforms.

What made “Soldiers in our streets” ludicrous was it was completely unbelievable. At no time did anyone in the CPC call for martial law. Now, the Liberals can just post video of PP, Tory candidates and campaign literature from Portage-Lisgar saying stupid shit.

The Tories are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If Poilievre doesn’t smarten up, they’re going to do it again.

IMHO

First I'd heard of that.

Did some reading while waiting for dental

Carson Jerema: The left is upset Poilievre stole their WEF conspiracy theories

Progressives have long had a view of global politics that is inherently paranoid

nationalpost.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I can't seem to find any real and verifiable linkage that opposing the real world agenda of WEF makes you an anti Semite. WEF is a real organisation, with real goals and a number of high level world politicians seemingly trying to deploy some of those policies.

Soros defendants try saying the same about opposition to him. If you say something bad about Soros, you're anti Semite and hate Jews. Even though, by his own admission and actions he's as far from that religion as the earth to the moon. It's the lefts use of inflating words like racist, misogynist, homophobes to a hyperbolic level well beyond the meaning of those words. It's an attempt to shame opposition into shutting up. In the end, by their constant and misguided use of inflammatory words, it eventually makes them useless as an epithet. They just wear them out, screaming them as one word narratives because they have no real facts to counter the argument.