McG
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No. That would have been liberating Belarus on the way to Moscow.
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
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Skysix
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I think it is now safe to say it is not a raid but a full on combined arms breech. The objective (s) of which remain unknown to OSInt.
Amazing what having all the elements and kit needed to implement a (mostly NATO doctrine) attack and the training (and prior combat experience) does to progress.
Coincidental that it kicked off shortly after F16's and AD arrived? Probably not. Planning and stealthy troop movements prior to zero hour would have taken a lot of time, drone ISR and SF recce. And it is a nice slap in NATO's face saying essentially "if we have what we need (and your doctrine requires) look what we can do. Now stop delaying and actually deliver as pledged"
Skysix
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"Ukraine’s key allies seemed surprised by the offensive - with White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre saying the US was reaching out to Ukraine to better understand what it hoped to achieve."
Zelensky says Russia must feel war amid Kursk attack
President Zelensky says Russia must feel the consequences of war, on the third day of a Ukrainian cross-border attack.www.bbc.com
Because the first rule of fight club is.... And they have reason not to trust NATO to not leak like the penetrated sieve that Russia has made it.
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I usually use "Uk" because I can see the accidental assocaition with UK. Not sure why I forgot to do that this time.
From now on I'll use ZSU (Zborini syly Ukrainy).
McG
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Russia’s Lipetsk region under ‘massive’ drone attack, governor says
Residents ordered to evacuate with fire reported at military airfield in region about 460 kilometres south of Moscow.
armrdsoul77
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Is that a Senator armoured vehicle from Canada?
PrairieFella
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Apparently the Lipetsk Airbase is getting fucking hammered. Some nice secondaries in this clip.Russia’s Lipetsk region under ‘massive’ drone attack, governor says
Residents ordered to evacuate with fire reported at military airfield in region about 460 kilometres south of Moscow.www.aljazeera.com
It's worth noting that Lipetsk is primary fighter training centre for the Russian Air Force. It's their Nellis AFB or RAF Valley.
PrairieFella
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Man I've huffed the hopium before regarding Ukrainian success buy holy smokes does this seem different. Godspeed and good luck my distant cousins.
Good God. At least 14 trucks, many if not all full of infantry. Looks like a Russian motorized infantry relief column got HIMARSed- the second video shows damage, and it’s consistent with a tungsten ball munition. This is on the E-38 highway, one of only two major routes in the area. This might have shredded the better part of a battalion, more than 30km inside Russia.
Warning, videos are graphic. LOTS of dead Russians.
Another thought- no apparent security on scene, no gathering of the bodies, looks like just survivors doing what they can. Bear in mind the strikes were at night so these videos are at least hours later. From the shadows I’d saw this video is an hour or two after sunrise.
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Question, as a citizen driving one of those cars or living in the area, do you try to start gathering up the bodies? Lining them up together? Do you start to try and gathering identification cards from the dead? Do you try and gather up the weapons/ammunitions and turn them over to the authorities or hide them so if the Ukkies do reach that point the weapons/ammo don't fall into their hands? Or do you just leave it all alone and get on with life?
For me, seeing this, if I lived there, I feel that I'd be trying to do something, anything. Is that normal behavior?
If I were the citizens living there I’d have fled north. The only MSR in that area of a now active battlefield is a bad place to hang out.
Could also be that of anyone who remains, it’s all hands on deck trying to help the wounded. Of which there are no doubt many.
I can’t imagine Ukraine got every truck so there are probably several trucks of survivors- but they may have just gotten off the X and pressed on a few km then figured out just who was left.
This incidentally nicely highlights how hard it is to concentrate forces.
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Understood.
Based on what you can eyeball in the 2 videos, any thoughts on how many dead, how many wounded?
It wouldn't surprise me if the Ukkies have SOF along that main east-west highway calling in arty on targets of interest.
PrairieFella
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That is a lot of dead Russkis. Jesus.
Edit: reference my post about Lipetsk Airbase. Unsubstantiated but if true, the RuAF may have been dealt a crippling blow.
Edit: reference my post about Lipetsk Airbase. Unsubstantiated but if true, the RuAF may have been dealt a crippling blow.
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FIFY.
14 trucks that I can see. Assume not every truck was hit so some got out; probably a battalion or so. Most of the trucks are large- similar to an HLVW. You can jam a platoon in each, particularly given the Russians aren’t exactly running with full units.
An M30A1 warhead on a HIMARS shotguns 182,000 tungsten balls. That’s one warhead. If you look at the truck canopy in the video and see the light shining through like a starry night’s sky, that gives you an idea of projectile spread. They’ll punch through canvas, auto bodies, Kevlar helmets etc.
I cannot speak to proportion of dead or wounded, but if half those trucks saw most occupants hit, I can see a couple hundred casualties assuming most were in fact troop carriers. That’s a battalion neutralized.
Also consider the second order effects on Russian resupply and reinforcements- they desperately need to rush troops in, but now they know truck columns will get HIMARSed. And you can bet drones are operating too. This will delay Russian efforts to bring support.
Consider also, though, that Ukraine is on limited supply lines and is vulnerable to such interdiction too. We aren’t seeing Ukrainian losses due in large part to their excellent OPSEC, but you can be sure the Russians are hurrying drone teams in.
Would this be the reason for the invasion: To bring their most effective drones into range for an assault on Lipetsk? With the damage being done nightly by those glide bombs, staging a major incursion such as this would be worthwhile. I suppose this means another delivery will be coming from NK to replace stocks but that won't replace the airframes
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My sense is that the average Russian citizen has learned through long and hard experience to not get involved in anything that they don’t have to…
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