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In a very "living in interesting times" way, for sure - and maybe even worse if unsuccessful than if it had worked.
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
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For certain - I wonder if the Ukrainians exacted the requirement of the Russians no longer trying something similar to them as the terms of not attempting to carry out their plans.
Colin Parkinson
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To my understanding quite a few fighters have been brought down by the R37 deep inside of Ukraine and it's a part of the reason you do not see as much of the Ukraine Air Force at the front as they would like. It also means a good chunk of Ukraine airspace is a very dangerous place to be thanks to the R37 and the S-400. One advantage the Russians have is altitude, they can fly higher and launch at altitude, whereas the Ukrainians are forced to launch from low altitude.
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Rumbles of Ukraine doing things in Kursk area - behind Russian lines by 7-ish KM. Multiple Strykers seen in UAV video. Air strikes...interesting...
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Two Russian helicopters downed. There's a cool video of a pair of VFK Su-25s coming in hot and low to provide air support.
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Like the man on Twitter says, "Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it™"
This from RUS state media ....
A bit more here (archive link).
Providing actual air support, or lobbing a pod’s worth of rockets into the sun?
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Russia has missiles for Anti-Fighter usage - the R-37/AA-13 isn't that, it's about as useless as a Phoenix for fighters, unless you just dump a bunch and hope for success.
R-73/AA-11 has an alledged 40km range is a lot more maneuverable, and the R-77/AA-12 has an alleged 120km range - but both are a lot better for anti-fighter work than the AA-13
I don't put a lot of stock in AA-13 kills on Ukrainian AC, unless they where shooting at transport AC, AWACS or bombers, none of which the Ukrainians had been flying recently in any sort of threat zone.
Retired AF Guy
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The Moscow Times is reporting three civilians killed by Ukrainian attacks and, of course that Russian forces are defending and pushing the attackers back. The link below has more info, including dashcam of a couple SU-25s coming in low and a large transport truck on fire.
Moscow Rushes Troops to Kursk Region as 3 Killed in Ukrainian Attacks - The Moscow Times
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday afternoon that was rushing reserve troops and aviation units into the southwestern Kursk region as Ukrainian forces staged a surprise incursion, which left at least 3 civilians dead and more than a dozen others injured.
www.themoscowtimes.com
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It's 1944 and it's either June 6th or December 16th.
daftandbarmy
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Rumbles seem to have some substantiation - ish.
Word of Strykers and now Bradleys on the move, in excess of 10 km of penetration. Russian troops surrendering, SU-25's doing CAS, and 2x KA-52's being shot down.
Thinking about that, the KA-52's were mentioned previously as being part of the initial response/trip-wire response force to halt such incursions. With OS reporting that the Russians have lost over 40 of them so far, perhaps their 'tripwire' response failed, allowing UKR to penetrate more deeply than was expected.
Recognizing that RUS cannot be strong everywhere - particularly when they're taking 1000+ casualties daily, striking somewhere that's not been an active front means less direct combat, more more maneuver warfare possible.
I would think a telling observation would be if we see any western tanks (Abrams/Leo/Chal) in the incursion. So far it seems like light-ish vehicles.
Word of Strykers and now Bradleys on the move, in excess of 10 km of penetration. Russian troops surrendering, SU-25's doing CAS, and 2x KA-52's being shot down.
Thinking about that, the KA-52's were mentioned previously as being part of the initial response/trip-wire response force to halt such incursions. With OS reporting that the Russians have lost over 40 of them so far, perhaps their 'tripwire' response failed, allowing UKR to penetrate more deeply than was expected.
Recognizing that RUS cannot be strong everywhere - particularly when they're taking 1000+ casualties daily, striking somewhere that's not been an active front means less direct combat, more more maneuver warfare possible.
I would think a telling observation would be if we see any western tanks (Abrams/Leo/Chal) in the incursion. So far it seems like light-ish vehicles.
Colin Parkinson
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Just tourists in green visiting historical sites......
Strykers and Brads would mean this isn’t just sanctioned by UAF, but is a major ouch with them directly involved. Sending some of their better kit across the border means that, whatever it is they’re doing, they mean business. I also don’t think US supplied IFVs would be crossing without assent by the US government.
I can’t tell what their play is here. This seems to be a reasonably significant effort. Maybe leveraging Russian complacency in thinking Ukraine wouldn’t cross in force?
This is a lot of chips to push forward on the table.
RangerRay
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“I can’t tell soldiers what they can’t do on their holidays.”
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Maybe their play is to take and hold some ground - if there is a 'front line freeze' and a visit to the bargaining table, having some territory of Russia's to 'exchange' for some of Ukraine's land might be handy.
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It’s also a wake up call to Russians that their war is coming home.
Next stop the Kremlin
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How far did Prigozhin get?
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