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theres a starting point.
Does Ukraine get a vote or is just Trump and Putin discussing the pee tape?
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
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Does Ukraine get a vote or is just Trump and Putin discussing the pee tape?
McG
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No. You are really stretching to hang all these wars a coal dispute in Western Europe. We certainly were not fighting the Nazis because of a coal dispute in western Europe.
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depends to a certain extent on how much support they get from Europe. The Europeans like Trudeau talk a big game but stumble a bit with the walking bit. Will Trump allow Europe to buy munitions for Ukraine?
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more Canadian support for Ukraine
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Agreed - but I will maintain that the underlying tension was the industrial revolution and the fight for coal and steel. Germany had it. The UK had it. France didn't.
The fathers of the EU certainly saw coal and steel as the root of their problems - hence the European Coal and Steel Community - and the grasping for alternative energy solutions, starting with Euratom. Euratom was the silver bullet of its age. Until Europe discovered it didn't have any uranium either.
The Nazis drew a lot of their strength from the Treaty of Versailles, reparations and the Occupation of the Rhineland. We rallied around cultural and philosophical differences but Hitler was fighting over resources - lebensraum and oil were at the top of his list.
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In a New York minute.
Colin Parkinson
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UK could take over a western Ukraine airfield, provide protection for it, fly air patrols over Ukraine, defending Ukrainian infrastructure.
Germany to reject Starmer’s plan for troops in Ukraine as Europe splits over peace deal
France is likely to back PM’s proposal for peacekeeping force – but other allies remain less convincedwww.telegraph.co.uk
What is Zelensky looking for to make him feel comfortable?
And he wants some of those to be Americans.
But the Americans aren't playing. They want to know what the Europeans are willing to pony up.
And the answer?
To be fair I can understand why Poland wouldn't commit troops inside Ukraine. It is more useful staying home. It has to deal with Belarus and Kaliningrad as well as being unsure of its neighbours Slovakia and Hungary. And apparently it can't rely on Germany either if AfD gets in. The best they can hope for there is to have a "neutral" Air Defence pact in their rear consisting of Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
Poland serves better as a connector from the Baltic to Ukraine covering the Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well as Western Ukraine from within its own borders.
The undecided include
It seems that the further away from the point of contact the less interest there is in deploying forces. But those distant from the point of contact are the very countries least at risk and thus having more freedom of movement, more opportunities to manoeuvre.
Meanwhile, as always,
With some help from its friends.
So, to reiterate, JEF
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia - on the Baltic, with high levels of ethnic Russians, bordering directly on Russia, or Belorussia or Kaliningrad.
They, especially Lithuania, have expressed willingness to send troops to Ukraine but frankly they, like Poland, are best staying at home and anchoring that portion of the line.
Finland - long skinny country with a long border with Russia covering both the Baltic Fleet in St Petersburg and the Northern (Nuclear) Fleet in Murmansk. It, like Poland is best staying home.
Sweden - long skinny country with a long border with Finland that approaches Russia in the north. It has some room to manoeuvre and send a small force to Ukraine.
Norway - long skinny country with a long border with Sweden and a short border with Russia but more importantly a long coast line covering the GIUK gap. Its Air Force and Navy are best staying put and the regular/army moving to the North to cover the Finns and Swedes and the Murmansk approaches.
Denmark - little country at the entrance to the Baltic. Air Force and Navy committed to the Baltic with no direct land threat from the Russians until the Russians reach Berlin. Denmark has already moved troops forwards to the Baltics and could relocate them to Ukraine, assuming that the locals, together with the Poles, can fix the Russians in place.
Greenland, Iceland, Faroes - no effective military forces. Write if you get work. Hang by your thumbs.
UK - the spirit is strong(ish) but the flesh is weak. Corps headquarters for JEF. A nuclear umbrella, if the Americans will let it use it. A cobbled together division that could sustain a single brigade in Ukraine for an indefinite period. The RN and the RAF could possibly contribute to a No-Fly Zone, especially if Turkey let one of the Carriers and a Type 45 into the Black Sea as a peacekeeping force guaranteeing safe passage.
Netherlands - it is in JEF because the UK is in JEF. They would likely add their marines to wherever the Brits are sending the Royals. The majority of the Netherlands army is more likely to adopt a German posture given that they have some troops under German/Joint command.
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France is not part of JEF. But France has to be seen as a player. It would never let the Brits get away with looking like they are leading anything on their own. If the Brits are in the French are in. They won't mind sending a Demi-Brigade of Legionnaires. They have their own truly independent nuclear force but will they sacrifice Paris for Kyiv? Anymore than the Americans are likely to sacrifice Washington for Kyiv?
....
And the rest of Europe moans about America leaving them to twist in the wind.
...
PS - Canada
We are distant from the point of contact (if you ignore the Russian bases in the Arctic and the occasional Russian overflights and the subs under the ice). We are not directly threatened. And we have a significant Ukrainian population (backed by Poles, Czechs, Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians and Finns). We have room to manoeuvre. If only we had something to manoeuvre with.
I understand the argument for anchoring Latvia but given the rest of the options Canada might do a greater service by relocating to Western Ukraine, along with the Danes, Brits and French and establish a No Fly Zone / AD Umbrella, extending the Polish coverage.
The force is a tripwire in any event. It is only to buy time. To be fair our last tripwire force bought 45 years of security.
Colin Parkinson
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The Maginot Line was built to defend the manufacturing regions and iron ore deposit in France. For Germany "Breathing room and oil" played a major role as well.
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And look at how well that worked!
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daftandbarmy
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You forget my European ancestry was stuck on the other side of the narrativeIf you happened to be a true European, you'd blame Belgian neutrality...
.My Sicilian family were already 10+ years on living in Mussolini's Fascist FunTime Wonderland
(and keeping their mouths shut after my Great-Grandfather was exiled to Ethiopia for "being a Communist"). If the Germans were doing anything in Europe, as far as the newspaper was telling them "the Germans were invited. Punch was served. Check with Belgium."
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Turkey weighs in
Eaglelord17
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They wanted the enemy to go around it, they left some room for manoeuvre warfare intentionally. It just backfired when they lost that.
Colin Parkinson
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Who will give them all those guns if they go against the US stance? Canada? They've only been able to carry the fight this long because of the Biden administration. That's gone now. The only ones that'll be pissed are the US military industrial complex.
And I wouldn't trust the EU to do anything if they weren't constantly prodded and pushed.
Someone is always going to be unhappy. Nobody is calling for unconditional surrender of either side.
Most of us just want it over and stop the loss of life and put a cap on the money pit.
I can just about guarantee we'll be on the hook for the rebuilding. No sense making it worse.
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well the Europeans are talking about a 700 billion armament plan
whether thats in spite of or because of Trump doesnt matter in the end for Ukraine
from what i can see it sure looks like a pretty close to unconditional surrender being asked of Ukraine
Putting an end to the war wont stop the Ukrainian deaths just the Russian ones
This is the cheapest Great Power competition war that has ever occurred. If i could remove 75% of Chinas combat power at the cost of a few hundred thousand dead Taiwanese and a couple hundred billion dollars spread out over the western world with not one dead NATO combatant id be on that too
trump says ukraine stays out of NATO and russia keeps the territory it's stolen, that's surrender.
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Keep in mind what Trump says in public is rarely what he really means. Which isn’t great for order or really anything…
I suspect a lot of his idiotic grandstanding is designed to push others to supporting Ukraine.
I mean Turkey just came out 100% for Ukraine (because they know Russia would swallow Turkey too given the chance, and few NATO countries would do much if Russia did have a go at them, as they are viewed as third class citizens of the alliance).
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