jimb said:
Mortarman :
How well was Crete defended and by whom ? I don't think that the two can be compared, really.
I do agree with your point about a complete lack of overall planning and control on the german side, re an invasion of Great Britain. Think about how long the Allies took to get their plan ( Overlord ) shaped up, ( 2 years ) and of course there was the need for the building of thousands of landing craft and the huge number of special vehicles (AVRES and duplex drive Shermans ) to give the 1944 landings a more than 50/50 chance of sucess.
The Royal Navy.................Of course they would have "ventured into the Channel " To defeat an invasion force ? They would have pulled out Lord Nelson's HMS Victory from dry dock, if they thought it would have been the ship that would have "turned the tide ". Every last man and ship would have been used.
Jim B.
Of course the Royal Navy would have ventured into the channel, and that Royal Navy would have become the Royal Glass-bottom-boat-tour Navy, because that's where it would have ended up: at the bottom of the channel. During the war, we saw the ascendence of the airplane over the Battleship: the Bismarck was sunk due to "obselete" aircraft delivering wave after wave of punishment. Given that both sides (Luftwaffe and RAF) would have been about equal range from the fight, and given that the Luftwaffe outnumbered the RAF, the Luftwaffe would have won that battle.
The comparison to plan the invasion of a well-defended coast (France 1944) vs a virtually undefended coase (England, 1940) are not the same. Had the Germans believed that they would have knocked out France by June 1940, they would have started planning for the invasion of England much sooner. As it was, by 22 June 1940, Hitler's eyes were already turning to the East. Had he put his own personal pressure on the planning of the invasion of England by say July 1940, it is my estimation that the Germans could have mounted an invasion by September of that year. Of course, there is no real way this could have happened, given the situation at the time: all eyes were on Russia.
"What if" the Germans invaded? Before answering that, let's look at Crete. The defences numbered some 9000 Greeks and maybe 25000 Commonwealth troops. The Germans were outnumbered, but key was the seizure of an airfield to fly in reinforcements. And the Allies had forewarning of the attack (through ULTRA intercepts).
So, suppose its 3 September, 1940. The UK has been at war for exactly one year. The RAF is down, but certainly not out. Axis forces dominate the channel from Cherbourg to Dunkirk. Anti shipping mines have been laid across both ends of the channel, and the stage is set, even though not all of Hitler's conditions for invasion have been met.
Initially the church bells sound out that the invasion is coming. German Fallschirmjaeger land across the south of England, near the channel. They are in a blocking role, to provide early warning and buy time for the invasion force to consolidate and build up.
UK based RADAR picks up a massive invasion fleet crossing the channel. The RN responds and begins to head south from Scapa Flow. They are picked up by German scout planes and harrassed the entire way down, taking hits along the way. RN minesweepers are harrassed by the Luftwaffe as well, as they attempt to break open a lane for the RN.
The first wave lands against modest opposition and they begin to link up beachheads. The RN is getting closer, and the Luftwaffe, and what's left of the Kriegsmarine, attempt to block their efforts. I BELIEVE that the Luftwaffe would get through as the RN got closer. Yes, the RN would press the issue, but I believe, for the reasons stated above (equal range to the battlefield, etc) that the numerically stronger Luftwaffe would win the day, providing effective top cover for the invasion fleet.
As for the ground battle, given that the Wehrmacht would be able to reinforce relatively effectively (especially once the RN has been chased from the Channel), they would be able to build up to a point where they would have the superiority in numbers to carry the day.
But, as I stated, this was impossible for the Wehrmacht to do given the competing personalities and Hitler's real aim of destroying the USSR.