The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[HB_Pencil]

CTD, very interesting point you raise about how LMCO would go about REPLACING production of some key components.  Would be interesting to follow the trail of IP on the various sub-systems that were developed to spec by Canadian aerospace industries...

Methinks it's not a clear-cut, "screw you, you're out, Canada!"

Certainly it is not clear cut... in some ways its not as bad, in some ways its much, much worse (a bit like brexit, perhaps due to the complexity of both). Canada getting punted will create an increase in the costs to the partners: it will be akin to a Diminishing Manufacturing Sources cost to a US government program and will probably be handled in somewhat a similar way. So there will be a lag while the JPO qualifies new suppliers and get them up to speed, where Canadian manufacturers continue producing components despite not being a part of the program. The program itself owns the IP for the component themselves, and for most parts I believe the IP for the manufacturing process usually, but not always, is owned by the supplier (don't quote me on that, but I'm fairly sure that's the breakdown). A lot of them will face economic hardship: they made investments into manufacturing processes and amortized the cost over a long period... and that will go away.

Perhaps the greater cost will be the damage to our reputation, specifically on multinational programs of this type (and maybe the damage is already done). We spend among the lowest in NATO and the Pacific allies, and our political commitment to foreign relations seems iffy at times. Now with a decision to reject the F-35 on completely illogical grounds, it will make countries question whether Canada will be a reliable partner for any future multinational program.

Edit: forgot my last point. I think this uncertainty is also the reason why LM and the other partners basically has said that an interim purchase is tantamount to getting ejected from the program. Five years ago the conservative government said that they were going to have a reset on the process (which everybody banked on the F-35 winning), and the outcome was that we would get Super Hornet as an interim purchase. What guarantee do they have now that after the Interim purchase we would get anything at all? None. An even cursory examination of Canada's history on multinational programs would inspire no confidence in them anyways.

 

[HB_Pencil]

If Canada were to order the F35 now for delivery when available would there really be any significant difference in delivery time between them and new Hornets?  After all neither a/c is available off the lot but must be scheduled and assembled.  I grant you that there would be a greater training period required for the F35 but with operational approval pending would buying hornets gain anything other than allowing Trudeau to make good on a really dumb election promise?

Actually, no. the F-35 is just as fast (and very likely faster) to be acquired and delivered to Canada than the F/A-18E, and its certainly quicker to train.

A very quick overview on aircraft manufacturing process in the United States: through the budgeting cycle and production it takes over two years from a contract signature, long lead items production, then actual production. But even before you arrive at that point, for a Foreign Military Sales' acquisition (which is what the F/A-18E would be), you need to go through the DCMA process, and there is no guarantees you're going to get a fast approval. Kuwait has been waiting for over a year to get an approval on their Super Hornet Purchase, and the White house can block this.... and given their stated displeasure on this file, I wouldn't be very hopeful for a quick resolution. I'd bank on three years at a minimum. That also means that we will be the sole remaining customer for the aircraft, which increases costs.

For the F-35, the bureaucratic aspects of acquisition is non-existent because of the MOU, which basically means we bypass the FMS process procure them at our pleasure. So we can have our aircraft within two years. One other point: The size of the production scale also allows us to trade slots from other countries. That means if we purchase the F-35 now and want our first aircraft delivered in a year, we could get them. That doesn't exist for the Super Hornet, as the items are purchased at need with little wiggle room.

Then there is the training side. The F/A-18E would be a disaster for the RCAF: I'm sure some of you can tell us just how tight the manning situation is within the RCAF right now. With the F/A-18E we'd be introducing a second type of aircraft and an entire pipeline to our sustainment system, and create untold havoc. Due to the rapidity required for us to get in on Super Hornet production before it closes, there probably won't be enough time to ramp up the number of personnel available to manage a transition to two fleets. We certainly wouldn't be making any commitment to operations, and probably be unable to meet our most basic NORAD/NATO commitments, which was the entire point of this exercise.

The F-35 has a ready made training facility and approach ready to go in Luke AFB: if we wanted to get up and running, we just start sending the first wave of air crews down right now, and start the process. There would be a disruption to our operational tempo, but it would be much more manageable than the other alternative.

From whatever angle you look at this, this is a disaster. This is 100% politics being played here, 0% actual logic. There isn't "another side," rather its just a game being played by the Liberal party of Canada, with the lives and capability of the armed forces. 

 

[Kirkhill]

....

Funny how even right back to 2002 when Alan Williams noted, as the Government of Canada signatory to the JSF MOU, how JSF was all about Canadian aerospace industry involvement and not about actually getting the aircraft for the military, his rose-coloured glasses failed to appreciate the nuance of the phasing of expectations as the program proceeded - not sure how a highly-experience mandarin could possibly have thought (or believed) that Canada's decision to proceed or not with procuring the F-35 would in no way affect Canadian industry's likelihood of receiving follow-on contracts once things started to get rolling. ???

...

So, he just wanted to tickle her fancy, not actually get her knocked up?

 

[AlexanderM]

A lot of them will face economic hardship: they made investments into manufacturing processes and amortized the cost over a long period... and that will go away.

Possible grounds for legal action against Canadian government?

 

[childs56]

Interesting how it is assumed that the length of time to purchase and take delivery of the Super Hornet would be longer then it would for the F35. Considering a few aspects of that assumption.
Other countries are willing to or able to trade up their spots, they all have budget and operational requirements as we do.

[pre]

[/pre]
training the F35 is quicker because they already have a unit set up.  every other partner in the program has members training also, where do we fit into the mix?
the Super Hornet is already established and already has a training facility set up out of Miramar not hard to get Pilots and ground crew there for training.
Boeing has already stated they could be rolling airframes off the line for Canada within 6 months or sooner of a contract signed. (they are in low level production)
Kuwaits wait on the Super Hornet has more to do with poiltics then it does with actual ability to deliver. Canada is not on the same level.

Introducing the Super Hornet I think is a good idea. First off when a major flight incident happens a whole fleet can be grounded resulting in a lack of ability during the investigation. (during a war they may still fly but depends on the reason). Run two platforms.
Eventually the CF18s will be retired. So we will be operating two fleets of fighters at that time, not three. It would be nice if Canada could increase its fighter numbers above 100 jets, especially if we are going to be deploying 6 to Europe, 6 to Africa and then 6 to the Middle east. Plus our NORAD commitments, along with training and manning the Squadrons at home. For every deployed airframe you need at least two in reserve for various levels of work performed maintained.
The Super Hornet is a very capable platform, even though it is not the newest of the new.
Maybe Canada is saving itself for a Gen 6 or 7 platform. The update to the F35. 

The Super Hornet production will be going for a few more year to come. 

 

[Kirkhill]

Rumour at Farnborough apparently has it that the Interim Super Hornet programme is on the back burner and the Canadians are casting around for information on what new fighters might be available to fill the capability gap - a capability gap that will be presumably clarified after the new Statement of Requirement is issued. 

In the meantime - a word of warning from the Director of Saab back in May of this year:

LINKOPING, Sweden — The defense industry would struggle to meet customer demands in Europe if spending takes off in the face of pressure from the US for other NATO member states to take a fair share of the spending burden and meet the organization's spending commitment target, according to Saab president and CEO Hakan Buskhe.

And in the same article reminders of other warnings that could be exercising minds in Ottawa.

Leading US presidential rivals Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have both signaled the US could scale back its commitments to NATO if allies don’t step up to the plate and meet the alliance's 2 percent spending target.

 

[Altair]

Rumour at Farnborough apparently has it that the Interim Super Hornet programme is on the back burner and the Canadians are casting around for information on what new fighters might be available to fill the capability gap - a capability gap that will be presumably clarified after the new Statement of Requirement is issued. 

In the meantime - a word of warning from the Director of Saab back in May of this year:

And in the same article reminders of other warnings that could be exercising minds in Ottawa.

doubling the defense budget? Oh happy day.

In reality the alliance members would probably look at trump or hillary and say have a nice trip.

Scale back contributions? Not much of a threat.

Expulsion? That's another kettle of fish.

 

[Kirkhill]

Poland Plans To Spend $21B on Drones, Helos, Air Defense, Subs

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/07/20/poland-plans-spending-21-billion-helos-air-defense-systems-submarines-uavs/87341052/

It all depends on motivation.

 

[a_majoor]

Sigh.

It is too bad that Gerald Butts and his cadre have no interest or understanding of defense, and only see us as election props for an never ending campaign. Proposed "Peacekeeping missions", no coherent policy for the Navy, batting made up figures around as to why/why not purchase this or that fighter...

This Decade of Darkness looks to be a lot darker than the last one.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Sigh.

It is too bad that Gerald Butts and his cadre have no interest or understanding of defense, and only see us as election props for an never ending campaign. Proposed "Peacekeeping missions", no coherent policy for the Navy, batting made up figures around as to why/why not purchase this or that fighter...

This Decade of Darkness looks to be a lot darker than the last one.

I know that you hate he Liberals but it's hard to lay the F-35 fiasco at the feet of this government. The Conservatives had 9 years (and a majority for 4 of those) to buy the aircraft and take the decision out of the Liberals hands. They folded to political pressure which the Liberals dont seem to worry about in sole sourcing an aircraft. They also forced onto us the whole "Canada First Defence Policy" which was a jumbled attempt at a military policy (without a coherent policy for the navy, or air force, or army). While the Liberals certainly have their issues on the defence portfolio, lying the F35 at their feet is wrong.

 

[Altair]

I know that you hate he Liberals but it's hard to lay the F-35 fiasco at the feet of this government. The Conservatives had 9 years (and a majority for 4 of those) to buy the aircraft and take the decision out of the Liberals hands. They folded to political pressure which the Liberals dont seem to worry about in sole sourcing an aircraft. They also forced onto us the whole "Canada First Defence Policy" which was a jumbled attempt at a military policy (without a coherent policy for the navy, or air force, or army). While the Liberals certainly have their issues on the defence portfolio, lying the F35 at their feet is wrong.

Yup. If they had wanted to get the F35 they could have just done so. They played political hot potato with the file, let it gather dust, and hoped to deal with it after the election. Well, it's getting dealt with.

And it's not like the conservatives left the forces with overflowing coffers. Spending dipped to 0.098 percent of GDP by the end of conservative rule, and actually got raised to a heady 0.099 percent under PMJT.

Both parties starve the forces, the conservatives just do more photo ops with them while pretending to care.

 

[PuckChaser]

They folded to political pressure which the Liberals dont seem to worry about in sole sourcing an aircraft.

Whoa now. The Liberals haven't bought a damn thing yet, only leaked intentions to the media to see how it would play out.

Lets see if they actually buy anything in the next 3 years. Remember, they're going to put the savings from F35 into the Navy. So that $85M USD Super Hornet, $150M USD Eurofighter, $120M USD Rafale, $120M USD Gripen and $90M USD F35 are going to buy us more ships.... oh wait, unless they don't buy anything, there's no money for "extra" Naval spending.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Whoa now. The Liberals haven't bought a damn thing yet, only leaked intentions to the media to see how it would play out.

Lets see if they actually buy anything in the next 3 years. Remember, they're going to put the savings from F35 into the Navy. So that $85M USD Super Hornet, $150M USD Eurofighter, $120M USD Rafale, $120M USD Gripen and $90M USD F35 are going to buy us more ships.... oh wait, unless they don't buy anything, there's no money for "extra" Naval spending.

You're correct, they haven't. So, in 9 months they've achieved the same results that the Conservatives did in 9 years.

You may also note that I was pointing out that blaming the Liberals for the F35/Fighter Jet fiasco was misguided rather than endorsing their defence position. That said, the CPC could have purchased a new aircraft and new ships but didn't out of political expediency. Saying the CPC is military friendly is disingenuous at best.

If in 3.25 years we still have no aircraft or no contract to purchase (even if not the F35) than you guys can criticize.

 

[PuckChaser]

Liberals could have signed a contract when they put us in the F-35 program years ago. Didn't. Could have pushed along the CSC/JSS replacements, didn't. The world wasn't created in 2006 when Stephen Harper was elected. A lot of the problems we have now are because of shortsighted defense budgets and planning in the 1990s.

$#%@ing the CAF over on equipment procurement is a multi-party issue. No one gets away scot-free, and no one is worse than the other.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Liberals could have signed a contract when they put us in the F-35 program years ago. Didn't. Could have pushed along the CSC/JSS replacements, didn't. The world wasn't created in 2006 when Stephen Harper was elected. A lot of the problems we have now are because of shortsighted defense budgets and planning in the 1990s.

$#%@ing the CAF over on equipment procurement is a multi-party issue. No one gets away scot-free, and no one is worse than the other.

Sure. But by the same logic we could go back and blame the Conservatives for getting rid of the Chinooks in 1992. Heck, lets go all the way back to the Ross Rifle and the MacAdam Shield-Shovel.

The point, of course, is that we shouldn't view parties by the past since the only evidence we really have is what is before us now. The Conservative party of the 2000's isn't the same as the one that Old Sam Hughes hoodwinked in 1914. The CPC had a chance to improve things and didn't. Can't blame the Liberals for that. I'll give the Liberals a chance to make good on their intent to replace the CF-18s.

 

[PuckChaser]

The link is easier today when you have the 1990s Liberals shilling for the current ones. Doesn't endear those who lived through that gongshow to think they've changed. The same reasoning could hurt Jason Kenney in Alberta after Harper endorsed him, but that's for a topic we're not allowed to have anymore.

 

[QV]

You can blame all past governments for the state of the CAF today, but it will do no good.  The current government however now owns it.  From the weak tripwire force going to Latvia, blue hats in Africa, dithering on procurement, and continued sub standard defence spending - it's the government of the day that owns it and right now that is the Libs.  I don't get a warm feeling about any of those files, every one of them will be half assed. 

 

[Altair]

You can blame all past governments for the state of the CAF today, but it will do no good.  The current government however now owns it.  From the weak tripwire force going to Latvia, blue hats in Africa, dithering on procurement, and continued sub standard defence spending - it's the government of the day that owns it and right now that is the Libs.  I don't get a warm feeling about any of those files, every one of them will be half assed.

sure the current guys own it. But nobody should make it sound like the previous guys did any better.

 

[McG]

I don't get a warm feeling about any of those files, every one of them will be half assed.

So go use the defence review as a conduit to pass your thoughts to the government, and let's get this thread back on topic.  It is not a surrogate for the locked politics thread.

 

[AlexanderM]

This is an article on the F-16 Viper which has the "scalable agile beam radar" similar to the F-22. I've also read that this system could be made available in other aircraft like the Super Hornet, should that be the final choice. In my opinion the Liberals are still squirming, looking for a way out of the F-35 without getting sued or being hit with a NFTA claim worth billions, so I'm thinking the f-35 isn't dead until the new jets are ordered, but if we do get the SH then get the most advanced radar.

http://www.defensetech.org/2015/10/23/new-f-16v-viper-makes-first-flight/

The F-16V includes an APG-83 active electronically scanned array scalable agile beam radar made by Northrop Grumman Corp. The company also makes so-called active electronically scanned array radars for the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

The new radar steers beams electronically — without moving parts — and redirects them from one location to another, according to the Government Accountability Office. Unlike a passive version, the radar spreads signals over multiple radio frequencies, making them difficult to detect and jam, and allowing the aircraft employing the technology to remain stealthy.